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Our public health crisis

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Chicago’s rampant violence is contagious and should be treated like a disease, according to a study published Tuesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Researchers focused on a network of about 138,000 people in Chicago — including about 9,800 gunshot victims — between 2006 and 2014. The network was comprised of people who’ve been arrested with someone else.

Shooting victims were almost twice as likely as non-victims to have associated with another gunshot victim in the network, the study found. The average time that elapsed between two associates getting shot was just 125 days, according to the study by Andrew Papachristos of Yale University and Ben Green and Thibaut Horel of Harvard University.

Their study said gun violence in Chicago and other cities like Newark, N.J., and Boston “follows an epidemic-like process of social contagion that is transmitted through networks by social interactions.”

The researchers said violence-prevention programs in Chicago and across the country should take a “public-health approach” to dealing with people in dangerous networks.

Being in a violent social network poses an even greater risk than demographic factors like race, age, sex and living in a high-crime neighborhood, the study found.

The full study is here.

* Meanwhile, this landed in my in-box just before the holidays…

There has been a well document increase in shootings and killings in Chicago in 2016 – with August 2016 designated the deadliest month in Chicago in almost 20 years and the projection for the end of year total predicting the deadliest year in at least 10 years. Cure Violence recently conducted an analysis of one potential factor – the level of implementation of the Cure Violence (CeaseFire) program in Chicago – looking at the time and place of the increase and how it coincides with cuts to the CeaseFire program.

As the analysis shows, increase in shootings and killings in Chicago began in early 2015 and coincide in time with the cut in state funding of CeaseFire in March 2015 that resulted in the closure of most of the sites and a laying off of most of the workers. Before the cut, CeaseFire programs were operating in 14 communities in Chicago with 71 workers and averaging 81 mediations per month. After the cut, there was only one full site and 3 partial sites with 10 workers.

The districts where the CeaseFire programs were cut are the districts where violence increased the most, accounting for 94% of the total citywide increase in shootings. In particular, the 11th district—where CeaseFire operated its longest running program with 10 experienced staff before the cut—were two times greater than the district with the next highest total. This staff was ediating an average of 10 high risk conflicts per month before the cut. The 4th district was the only district that had reductions in shootings and killings (57 fewer shootings and 6 fewer homicide than the mean baseline). The 4th district is also the location of the only CeaseFire program that had full staffing after the cut in funding. These workers are mediating an average of 17 conflicts per month, which independent evaluations have surgested is a key element to reducing shootings and killings. There are several other control methods as well that are required to have a full program.

And this isn’t the first time this has happened. In 2004, there was a tripling of Cure Violence coinciding with a 25% decrease in shootings and killings, and in 2008 and 2012 cuts to the program coincided with large increases in violence in 2007-8 and 2011-2. Additionally, when funding was restored in 2008 and 2012, violence dropped to previous lower levels. In total, at six distinct points the level of violence changed when Cure Violence implementation changed. This analysis, along with data on effect sizes from independent evaluations, demonstrates that there is an inverse orrelation between the level of implementation of the Cure Violence model and the level of shootings and killings in Chicago. Further, it suggests that expanding the Cure Violence model to all areas with high rates of lethal violence in Chicago could dramatically reduce homicides to less than 350 per year and possibly less 200.

The full report is here.

* Some interesting charts…

* Related…

* Despite Trump tweet on Chicago, anti-violence options for feds limited

* Rhymefest Urges Federal Aid to Chicago Following Trump’s Crime Tweet

* Two boys, 16 and 17, killed in shooting that also wounded 65-year-old woman

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 10:34 am

Comments

Yes, this is a public health disaster. It’s hard for GOP folks to comprehend that concept. It’s difficult to get GOP solons to support public health programs. Given our current state of affairs, getting funding for this public health initiative is not likely.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 10:44 am
Surely, men like Jason Barickman and Ron Sandack have some solutions. They had a lot of outrage and ideas about violence in 2014.

All of their moral fury seems to have vanished. The GOP is dead silent on this issue as gun violence soars in our state’s biggest city. Pitiful.

Comment by Handle Bar Mustache Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 10:58 am
Violence is a moral problem. It is much easier to bypass individual rights by declaring a public health crisis.

Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:00 am
Cease Fire has been shown to be an effective approach for reducing shootings and homicides. It had its basis in work done by University of Chicago, and the early model was tested in Little Village then in the 1990’s the office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention teste the model in 5 sites around the country including Downstate Bloomington IL. The data gathered from that helped inform the Model for the current Cease Fire. It’s a shame that it’s funding has been so off and on and many hundreds of folks have lost their lives because we politically wouldn’t commit to supporting it.

Comment by independent Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:05 am
In 2015 Speaker of the House John Boehner was quoted as saying “I’m sorry, but a gun is not a disease”. This was a reply to a question as to why there is no federal funding for public health research into gun violence. Based on this, I would guess that funding any program to reduce gun violence in Chicago would not be funded by the federal government.

Comment by Illinois Native Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:14 am
Why doesn’t Chicago fund Cease Fire?

Comment by BK Bro Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:14 am
Initially, as a good Illinois voter, I blame Madigan for the increase in shootings. I also blame him for the fact that it was really really cold this morning.

In any case, the articles really are interesting. With all the bickering from the Gov., we do tend to forget that the budget has real consequences. This is one.

The other note is that despite his far right positions on many economic issues, the Gov. really has made some progress on criminal justice issues. Given the track record of actual cooperation on those issues, it would be nice if funding for these programs received serious consideration.

Finally, I have to agree with BK Bro. The City needs to decide if we just want to pout about state funding, of if we want to push forward to address issues. While it would be great if the state could step up, the Mayor really needs to take a serious look at finding funding for this even if the state will not step up.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:20 am
BK Bro, because CPD hates it.

Comment by Juice Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:31 am
Wolf Blitzer blames it on Indiana. Gary McCarty blames it on Black Lives Matter. Bruce Rauner blames it on the Speaker…..

Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:39 am
It is very preliminary to say that Rauner has made great progress on criminal justice issues. He’s signed a couple of bills. But that’s hardly a dent in this catastrophic and huge problem. That doesn’t mean I’m not hoping for more.

Comment by State worker Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 11:57 am
Many factors are contributing to the spike in violence and this report highlights one of them.

The Tribune dissected a lot of the 2016 numbers in a piece over the holidays, including one set of data that floored me: street stops by CPD officers.

“…street stops — in which officers stop people on foot and document the interaction — have plunged to 106,570, down 82 percent from 599,590 a year earlier.”

Nearly half-million fewer street stops in 2016 than there were in ‘15?! That pencils out to about 1,300 per day.

There are all kinds of problems with “street stops” — both legally and with how they are quantified statistically, so I’m hesitant to draw any hard conclusions. But if this is an even slightly reliable gauge of police activity, it is extremely troubling.

Yes, fewer “street stops” means less racial profiling and less police misconduct. It also leads to fewer arrests and fewer solved cases.

The rate of violence won’t decrease significantly without an aggressive police force that has the trust of the community in high-crime districts. It’s gonna be extremely difficult to achieve both those conditions at the same time.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-violence-2016-met-20161229-story.html

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:06 pm
The top chart above, titled “The Chicago Killing Epidemic began when Cure Violence was cut in Mar 2015″, shows a decided ‘u’ shape. There was a marked decrease in the violence up to March 2014 with a smaller decrease until February 2015 when a noticeable increase started. The associated text relates the funding, of lack of same, of this program to the increase in gun violence in Chicago.

Another area of possible research might on the effect of the changes in gun laws in Chicago. The cities ordinances that provided for a ban on handguns was overturned in Jan. 2014. Other city ordinances related to guns had been overturned in the previous two years. As the chart above shows, this is almost the same month that the major decrease on gun violence in the city started to bottom out. It was also about the time that the concealed carry law was finally implemented. One needs to ask if these changes in the law related to guns was a factor in the increase in violence or not.

Comment by Small town taxpayer Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:18 pm
Wrong description but not surprised. The violence in Chicago is not a public health crisis. No what is occurring is nothing short of domestic terrorism. In today’s NYT an article has the record low number of shootings in NYC for 2016 including gang related. The comparison is breath taking. We have turned our backs on law enforcement since Michel Brown and the McDonald shootings. Trump is right- unless Chicago can resolve the problem we do need the Feds. Not more money but fed law enforcement. Calling this a public health crisis is akin to the Dems refusing to label what ISIS does as Islamic terrorism. The fangs in Chicago are terrorists and need to be extinguished by brute force

Comment by Sue Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:45 pm
===need to be extinguished by brute force ===

I think that may sound better in the original German.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:49 pm
-Roman
Did you see the data on how ineffective those street stops were?

Between May 1 2014 and Aug 31 2014 there were over 250,000 stops that did not result in an arrest, for a rate of 93.6 per 1000 people which was 4 times higher than the peak rate in NYC. Also when NYC curtailed their stop and frisk program they did not see a spike in violent crime like we have. There is no reason believe that street stops, or the lack of them caused the spike in violent crime.

In fact this was inefficient policing that wasted resources and did credible damage to the relationship between the public and the police.

If you were getting “Terry” stopped every time you went for a walk down the street, how much trust or willingness would you have to work with the police?

Comment by TrumpsSmallHands Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 12:59 pm
Rich- pan my comment all you want but the reality is Chicago is LAWLESS

Comment by Sue Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:01 pm
And Bruce Rauner remains silent on this issue.

One can point to his obstinate presenting a budget has placed blood on his hand, not just from Chicago’s shootings, but from domestic violence victims, people wanting drug treatment, homeless, senior citizens……………..

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:03 pm
===Based on this, I would guess that funding any program to reduce gun violence in Chicago would not be funded by the federal government. ===

It should be funded by DOJ because it is a crime issue. Trying to tart it up as a public health issue is deceitful.

Comment by Ken_in_Aurora Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:05 pm
Sue, have you ever been to Chicago?

In addition, your prescription is, unfortunately, ridiculous.

The problem oddly enough may well be too much law enforcement. Gangs tended to provide some stability. When they were clearly in control, fewer people were killed. The disputes were handling internally.

When police broke up gang leadership, you had a splintering. Now you have more block by block disputes among small factions.

So in summary Sue, you really should come to Chicago. It is not “lawless.” Rather than going by instinct, you should come and see what it is really like.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:09 pm
If we are talking ROI (since they can’t or won’t pay for both), the question for Chicago, not the State but Chicago, is: what is the most cost effective approach for the Chicago citizens and taxpayers to reach the desired public safety outcome?

a) more police

or

b) more anti-violence funding

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:28 pm
Can anyone please attempt to explain how Chicago had more then 450 percent more shootings last year then New York City had. What in NYC doing that were not. Not trying to be argumentative but what is occurring here is nothing short of insane

Comment by Sue Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:39 pm
===Not trying to be argumentative===

LOL

First you argue for the mass elimination of people then say that?

Please.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:43 pm
Sue, you need to read and not just type.
I did explain.
We have more gangs and recently, more splintered gangs.
Where there is no clear control, they find ways to resolve their disputes.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:48 pm
We are surrounded by states where the is easy access to fire arms.
They pour into the south and west sides of Chicago.
We have a mayor who until recently would not hire more cops.
The last Governor emptied the mental hospitals.
We have a gun and a mental health problem,and legislators who only worry abut themselves getting re-elected. It never ends.

Comment by Mokenavince Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 1:54 pm
Sue - Rich- pan my comment all you want but the reality is Chicago is LAWLESS

Try double-parking in the Loop for 10 minutes and let me know how that works out. Also, Chicago is not NYC, no matter how much you try to fit that round peg in a square hole.

Comment by Downstate43 Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 2:45 pm
- Juice -

BK Bro, because CPD hates it
=========================

Why should the entire state have to buck up then? Sounds like the City needs to sort out it’s own turf issues before the GA and Gov get blamed for not funding it….

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 2:59 pm
Early on my chaplain days I did a stint at Northwestern Memorial downtown. I was the chaplain on call for a mother coming in to ID her son in the ER. He had been killed, executed actually. It was a gang killing. I was braced for a really strong grief reaction from the mom. But it wasn’t at all. It was soft and gentle. She stroked his cheek and wept quietly for only about a minute. Not sure what to do I sunk back into the corner. She was be holding her son in peace. There was relief on her face. As to be thankful his pain was over. I had made the assumption that the mom would be volcanic in grief. She was instead greatful it was over. She spent about a half an hour with him then calmly left.

There is tremendous pain in certain communities. Dysfunction is so deep. I think any amount of mediation or de-escalation would help. Thinking of them as lawless feral animals is not correct. They are lost and without hope. Only in that environment could I think a mother could look at her dead son and see it as a release from horror. Not more police. More brave bridge builders and healers.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 4:13 pm
Great informative thread. This shows the importance of social programs and tax dollars. The success of anti-violence programs is a great example of collectivism, where tax dollars are so vital to the preservation of life and health. The absence of this help appears to have immediate negative consequences.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 4:21 pm
Cease fire likes to come nurse correlation with causation. The group never accounted for their grant money cannot explain what happened to a lot of cash. It’s leader is a domestic Batterer. Who has many many issues but wants more state money so he doesn’t have to explain his past at a real job.

Comment by 51st Ward. Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 4:24 pm
Small town taxpayer- “It was also about the time that the concealed carry law was finally implemented. One needs to ask if these changes in the law related to guns was a factor in the increase in violence or not.”

Brandon Phelps’ NRA backed concealed carry bill was passed in July 2013. It was designed specifically to discourage people in high crime neighborhoods from obtaining a carry license. Phelps bill outlaws carry on public transporation like CTA buses and trains. Every violation of the carry act is criminal, so you can be arrested (or shot, since cops can use force to make arrests) if you carry in an off-limits location.

Brandon Phelps from Harrisburg, senate sponsor Gary Forby and the NRA members who vote for them do not care about black people in Chicago, except NRA does like to use blacks from Chicago like Otis McDonald as face men for their lawsuits. The southern IL gun owner types don’t care about blacks in high crime neighborhoods, they drive everywhere. Neither Phelps nor the NRA have lifted a finger to remove the public transport ban in the carry law to give the average guy a chance to bring down these stats when dealing with hoodlums.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 6:29 pm
Street stops down. Arrests down. Traffic citations down. Murder investigation clearance rates down.

Also, police involved shootings are down and so are complaints of excessive force.

It’s not crazy to suspect a slow down in policing is a occurring.
There’s some benefit to that — like fewer incidents of police misconduct. But there’s a huge drawback too — like the crime rate skyrocketing.

Comment by Ted Wednesday, Jan 4, 17 @ 7:58 pm
No one mentions the real problem. Possession of an illegal gun is only a misdemeanor so a potential shooter is back on the streets in hours. Black legislators block all attempts to make it a felony. The blood is on their hands.

Comment by stiketoo Thursday, Jan 5, 17 @ 7:25 am