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What’s the “real” end game here?

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Illinois

* Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond)…

It is disappointing, but not surprising, that Democrats are trying to ram through another stopgap spending plan instead of passing a truly balanced budget. This shows us that House Democrats do not intend to get a budget done before 2019. That is unacceptable. Our community colleges, universities, social service providers and entire state deserve better. Their plan does nothing to address the state’s long-term challenges and simply strings them along a few more months.

This from the same legislator who is the chief sponsor of the mother of all unfunded spending plans: An appropriation into infinity for all state employees.

* OK, now on to Ralph Martire, executive director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability…

Last week Governor Rauner shot down another proposal to fund public services in the current fiscal year. Sponsored by State Representative Greg Harris (D-13), the initiative would have tapped available special funds to cover $258 million in social service costs, and $559 million in higher education funding—primarily MAP grants for low income students, but also some operating revenue for community colleges ($36 million) and universities ($159 million). In a Facebook video explaining why he won’t support this proposal, the Governor made three, key points.

First, he maintained he’d oppose any stopgap funding that wasn’t coupled with a “permanent property tax freeze to protect the hard working taxpayers of Illinois.” Which begs the question, protects them from what, exactly — adequate levels of police and fire protection? Or maybe from having clean streets and access to things like public parks and libraries?

That’s pretty over-wrought. Our property taxes in this state are way too high. It’s a tax that isn’t based on the ability to pay. And while many local governments, including school districts, are struggling to make fiscal ends meet, others are sitting on fat cash reserves. That, to me, is the real problem with a freeze. The taxpayers who need the most relief are often the same folks who live in towns and school districts which are struggling mightily to pay expenses because of an eroded tax base and would eventually have to stop providing some much-needed and essential services under a permanent freeze. We gotta figure this out, but it’s impossible to do that when everyone from the state on down is in constant crisis mode.

* Back to Ralph…

Second, the Governor’s Facebook video lambasted stop-gap initiatives as keeping “universities, community colleges and social service agencies on the verge of collapse with no permanent funding.” Which is true, however, failure to provide any additional funding for higher-ed and social services will move them from the “verge” of collapse to actually collapsing. Indeed, higher education currently receives 64 percent less in annual funding than in FY2015, the last time Illinois enacted a full General Fund budget. And social service agencies aren’t living high off the hog either. In fact, funding for social services in the current fiscal year will run about $1.36 billion less than in FY2015. So while one-time funding for higher-ed and social services is neither ideal nor adequate, it’s clearly needed.

Finally, the Governor’s Facebook missive admonished Springfield to end its fixation on “stop gaps”, and instead “pass real and lasting solutions” to Illinois’ budget problems. Hard to disagree with that. Unfortunately, when the Governor had the chance to back his rhetoric up by supporting the bipartisan “Grand Bargain” pieced together by Senate President John Cullerton (D-6) and Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R-41), he instead chose to crater it.

Can’t argue with that.

* More Martire…

Which begs another question: is the Governor truly interested in making the political compromises needed to, in his words, “pass real and lasting solutions?” Or is the Governor’s real end-game more accurately revealed by his insistence on a permanent property tax freeze? Because just as such a freeze would degrade the capacity of municipalities and the like to provide local services, the failure to pass a comprehensive General Fund budget for Illinois has already materially degraded the state’s capacity to fund the public services it has the primary obligation to provide.

So, what Ralph’s saying here is that the governor’s “real” end game is to damage government, all government. Maybe not quite as radical as the old Grover Norquist line about shrinking government “down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub,” but close.

Your thoughts on this?

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:39 am

Comments

Another day, another bunch of incoherent Rauner’s ramblings.

Comment by DuPage Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:43 am
Isn’t it obvious?

Comment by Daniel Plainview Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:46 am
It might not be a conspiracy to damage government as much as it is sheer incompetence.

Comment by Ahoy! Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:49 am
Not fair. He only wants to kill unions, defund social services, and break the Democratic party. He wants to leave enough government left so there will be fat contracts for his friends.

Comment by Keyrock Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:50 am
I don’t disagree with your conclusion. Nothing else makes sense. I think his intent was always to it down. We don’t have a budget. He’s now looking at getting rid of rules and regulations. He’s trying to destroy public sector unions. Every move he makes seems to be with the intent of harming government.

Comment by Demoralized Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:50 am
Every time I go looking for Rep. Bourne’s budget plan all I can find are her campaign finance reports.

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:51 am
=Isn’t it obvious=

That is my take. Rauner does not want a budget and will keep moving the target to ensure one does not occur.

In past week I’ve talked with several staunch Republicans who told me if Rauner runs again, they are voting Democratic. I hope the state can survive until we vote him out. I know, big war chest, but I think Rauner is toast in next election.

Comment by illinoised Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:51 am
That’s pretty over-wrought. Our property taxes in this state are way too high. It’s a tax that isn’t based on the ability to pay.

A tax that funds local government and is based on the ability to pay is the state income tax. It has a local government distribution. Rauner has repeatedly proposed to eliminate it.

Comment by The Captain Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:52 am
Our governor is a rich retiree who does’t need governments anymore and is only holding office to kill it.

His actions make this clear.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:54 am
One correction to VanillaMan: Our governor is a rich retiree… that should be rich volunteer!!

Comment by don the legend Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:57 am
The governor made $3 million this week at his “other” job. He must be really good at that one.

Comment by gdubya Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:57 am
wordslinger has been banging the drum forever - squeeze the beast is the real strategy. It’s really the only thing that makes sense logically. Whatever he is (lots of negative adjectives come to mind), the guy isn’t irrational.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:58 am
Bourne and Rauner make the perfect the enemy of the good. Martire knows what he’s talking about.

Comment by anon2 Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:59 am
Avery Borne isn’t the most thoughtful legislator when it comes to thinking for herself or doing/saying whatever Rauner requires her to say, which may include hurting social services and higher education. Bourne does it happily, and I say that because even after proposing the “mother of all unfunded spending plans”, Bourne is more concerned about doing what Rauner commands, and being as blatently phony as need be to keep her seat to vote exactly as Rauner dictates.

Bourne’s quote only solidifies what is known; propose phony unfunded spending plans to seem “thoughtful” to fool the unwashed (like Rauner), but make clear that Rauner controls her own thoughts, speaking verbatim to Raunerite talking points.

It’s embarrassing to see such a talented person become so wholly controlled in political policy that is destroying Illinois, and lending her name and voice to promote it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 11:59 am
Oh, I wouldn’t be so sure he’d be voted out. Especially when those campaign ads go out projecting the size of the (flat) tax increase the Democrats will impose as soon as they take over.
That’s why I wonder the Dems don’t make some kind of a deal now. Do they really want to ride in on a huge tax grab-on the middle class, natch, they can’t make it progressive on day 1-if ever. And if
Pritzer wins, it’ll be a gazillionaire taking money from the little guy to give it to the even
poorer guy. How’s he going to spin that?

Comment by Cassandra Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:01 pm
I don’t live in Cook or the collar counties and I realize that this varies by location, but . . . my local school district accounts for 65.4% of my last property tax bill. If you want to lower property taxes, Governor, change the school funding model in Illinois!

Comment by Out Here In The Middle Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:01 pm
In my opinion, the real end game is to campaign endlessly 24/6/365 in the hope of electing Republican. I say this because all Rauner and his followers ever do is bad-mouth Democrats and blame them for every woe.

My question would be - you are watching your home burn rather than call the fire department, and have no insurance. How are you going to survive once there is nothing left to watch?

Comment by Thoughts Matter Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:01 pm
That’s $75,000 and hour, assuming he worked a 40 hour work week, at that job. Wished he put a little time in “doing his job” at the one he got “elected to.

Comment by gdubya Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:02 pm
The Governor’s 3 points sound good in a 15 second clip on the news, but as Rich makes clear, there’s logic behind them. Too bad other media and voters don’t dig down.

Comment by Sir Reel Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:03 pm
“the governor’s “real” end game is to damage government, all government.”

Either Bruce Rauner is grotesquely incompetent or this is his ultimate goal.

Or both.

Those are literally the only options.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:05 pm
I think Rauner’s end game is more of a corporate worldview.

1. Destroy the current human services of smaller agencies rooted in their local communities and replace with large, multi-state corporations. Large corporations will be more supportive of Rauner’s aims and not put pressure for funding on local representatives like small agencies do.

2. Destroy smaller state vendors to eventually be replaced with large, multi-state corporations.

3. Decimate the state higher education system in favor of private universities who are more dependent on wealthy donors, also more likely to be supportive of Rauner’s aims.

4. Degrade the finances of state and local governments to the point where the funding of pensions is not possible and they are incapable of paying union wages and benefits and pay out contracts to workers earning prevailing wages. This will take away some of the traditional supports of the Democratic party.

5. Privatize functions now done by state employees to, as I keep saying, large, multi-state corporations.

I can see the argument for it: large corporations are more cost-effective than government employees and small agencies/vendors. This means less money needed from taxing people. People benefit because large corporations are job creators and there will be more jobs for everyone.

Comment by Earnest Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:07 pm
I think his permanent property tax freeze is aimed at destroying prevailing wage. If there is a property tax freeze and local governments become cash strapped, he will push ending prevailing wage as a method to free up money. I read somewhere (cant recall where), that local governments will be “begging” for the end of prevailing wage if a permanent property tax is implemented.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:10 pm
Ralph is probably closer to the truth than most of the media.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:14 pm
I read somewhere (cant recall where), that a permanent property tax freeze is aimed at ending prevailing wage. Once local governments become cash strapped due to stagnant property taxes, he will offer ending prevailing wage as a solution to free up money. They said local governments will be “begging” to end prevailing wage. Makes sense to me.

Comment by Anon Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:15 pm
The end game of Rauner’s? That’s easy … to win. It’s the same end game as Madigan’s, btw.

And after he wins (either gent), he gets the ridiculous honor of cleaning up his (their) mess.

Comment by Deft Wing Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:16 pm
“I can see the argument for it: large corporations are more cost-effective than government employees” But are quick to shed unprofitable services, which is why there’s a government. And why you can’t run government like a business.

Comment by Skeptic Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:17 pm
The House Dems know EXACTLY what they are doing. This is politics, after all, right? And it’s a family affair for Illinois Democrats. Glad Rep. Bourne continues to speak thoughtfully and truthfully about IL Democrats using the budget - not to advance fiscal, economic, or political reform, like Rauner, but to simply WIN another election…in order to use broke and jobless IL as a client state for the unions, trial lawyers, bureaucrats, and the rest of the Cook County vulture mob.

Comment by Observant27 Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:21 pm
== The taxpayers who need the most relief are often the same folks who live in towns and school districts which are struggling mightily to pay expenses because of an eroded tax base and would eventually have to stop providing some much-needed and essential services under a permanent freeze. We gotta figure this out, ==

What is there to figure out?

The answer is obvious; math dictates it. Between 70% and 90% of your property tax bill is for the local school district(s). The only way local property tax bills come down is if state support of public schools increases … and that requires even higher than a 5.25% flat income tax.

Term limits won’t fix it. Work Comp reform might put a bandaid on it for a year or two. Same for union busting and/or prevailing wage: just another short term bandaid.

Pension “reform” won’t fix it; in fact, the kind of “reform” that transfers pension payments to the local school district(s) just makes the problem worse.

To repeat: the only real fix to high local property taxes is more State money. And there are really only two choices: a higher flat income tax or a progressive income tax that will limit the impact on the poor and lower middle class.

You know, given all Rauner’s vocal concern for the middle class taxpayers, you would think he would support a progressive income tax. I think Richard Olgivie would have supported it; I could even see Jim Thompson trying to sell it. So why won’t Rauner?

Comment by RNUG Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:29 pm
===And it’s a family affair for Illinois Democrats.===

“Family Affair”? Hmm…

=== Glad Rep. Bourne continues to speak thoughtfully and truthfully about IL Democrats using the budget===

… and yet Bourne supported the “mother of all unfunded spending plans”…. LOL… are you willfully ignorant of that or blissfully unaware how foolish you sound?

===…in order to use broke and jobless IL as a client state for the unions, trial lawyers, bureaucrats, and the rest of the Cook County vulture mob.===

Whew!

I know you feel better saying that, but citing Avery Bourne “fighting against” whatever your waving your fist at on your porch la is a reality of the hypocrisy of what Bourne is saying now, and her proposal that flies in the face of her criticism of a stopgap.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:37 pm
The clear outcomes of Rauner’s strategy might be as Martire describes — damaging government at all levels — but I wouldn’t assume he sees that as final goal.

Rauner more likely strongly believes that our current government is too broken to simply fix, and we need to radically change our traditional power structures, remove support for both traditional Republicans and all Democrats, get unions effectively out of government, evade most pension and healthcare costs, privatize government functions, and hope for revenue by attracting more large businesses. That ideal state would finally allow better state government. Rauner has so far been willing to sacrifice almost everything to get there.

You have to destroy to rebuild. In Steve Bannen’s worldview, it’s called “deconstruction.” Madigan called it “extreme” two years ago.

Comment by walker Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:44 pm
Ralph is usually the grown-up in the room….grown up enough not to ask silly questions about spending cuts to the Democratic candidates for Governor. Such questions are more appropriately asked by the Tribune Editorial Board.

Comment by formerpro Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 12:55 pm
since we are near tax day just a reminder that property tax expenses enjoy nice deductions and credits on both the federal and state income tax forms–after these write-offs Illinois property tax bills are only about 65% of the actual property tax bill. Important to remember the real effective tax rate of property taxes

Comment by anon Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:01 pm
It’s Colonel Kurtz, Rich.

“I don’t see any method at all, sir.”

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:01 pm
Cassandra- I think you’re not factoring in that people usually only vote against their self interest when their experience of daily life doesn’t elucidate what their self interest is. Now after two years of no social services, grandma getting kicked out of the home THEN getting a reduction in meals on wheels. Young Suzy can’t get a MAP grant to go to school, or the option of Chicago State is gone, and your uncle can’t get treatment from painkiller addiction after getting hurt on the job but is worried about workers comp, or suddenly you get cut from food stamps and Medical because of the “Wildly Important Goal” (cancel as many cases as possible DHS’s stated goal in every FCRC. They even have progress charts of how many cases they cancelled) that’s not to mention state employees or any employees laid off.

So you get where I’m going? Peoples base line experience is changing and lining up with their self interest. That’s why Rauner is in a total quest to spend 100 million to try to curb the experience and blame it on Madigan. I don’t think it will work as well as last time where Rauner was an unknown. Now we know he’s a terrible business man. He makes 90000 dollars an hour off the backs of others

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:05 pm
===grown up enough not to ask silly questions about spending cuts to the Democratic candidates for Governor===

So, they shouldn’t have to answer questions about spending cuts? Odd. Everybody seems to always say they want a mixture of cuts and taxes, but nobody want to talk about the cuts.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:06 pm
“large corporations are more cost-effective than government employees and small agencies/vendors. *** People benefit because large corporations are job creators and there will be more jobs for everyone.”

So these corporations will create “more jobs for everyone” — and still be “more cost-effective”?

Math simply doesn’t work that way.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:27 pm
>So these corporations will create “more jobs for everyone” — and still be “more cost-effective”?

Math works if the jobs pay very little and have little in the way of benefits.

Comment by Earnest Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:32 pm
“Math works if the jobs pay very little and have little in the way of benefits.”

In such a case, the “people benefit” part of the corporate magic formula goes down in flames.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 2:00 pm
- anon - Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 1:01 pm:

“since we are near tax day just a reminder that property tax expenses enjoy nice deductions and credits on both the federal and state income tax forms–after these write-offs Illinois property tax bills are only about 65% of the actual property tax bill. Important to remember the real effective tax rate of property taxes”

Not for everyone. Not at all.

“To deduct expenses of owning a home, you must file Form 1040, U.S. Individual Income Tax Return, and itemize your deductions on Schedule A (Form 1040). … Generally, your real estate taxes, home mortgage interest, and mortgage insurance premiums are included in your house payment.”
Publication 530 (2016), Tax Information for Homeowners - IRS.gov
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p530/ar02.html

Effect of Deductions and Exclusions

The deductions and exclusions available to homeowners are worth more to taxpayers in higher tax brackets than to those in lower brackets. For example, deducting $2,000 for property taxes paid saves a taxpayer in the 39.6 percent top tax bracket $792, but saves a taxpayer in the 15 percent bracket only $300. Additionally, even though they only represent about 20 percent of all tax units, those with more than $100,000 in income receive over 85 percent of the mortgage interest deduction tax benefits. That difference results largely from three factors: compared with lower-income homeowners, those with higher incomes face higher marginal tax rates, typically pay more mortgage interest and property tax, and are more likely to itemize deductions on their tax returns.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-are-tax-benefits-homeownership

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 2:07 pm
Of course Martire will say these things, his group is a front for unions. His first and last solution is always more taxes and more money. That being said I will again proclaim that everyone is now to blame at the state level. Rauner can’t run away any longer and the dems are so guilty on the budget and deficit they would be getting a life sentence if they were in court for failure to do their jobs. But belly aching doesn’t help a bit. There are state programs that are a waste of money, there is inflexibility in some state programs that results in more money being spent than is needed, there is a growing level of government oversight for non-profits that accomplishes nothing but making non-profits jump through hoops and having less to spend on their mission. For all the good fun we all have laughing at the insanity that goes on in Springfield it isn’t really funny. It is an absolute abdication of responsibility and if they did this for an employer they would have all been fired long ago. Face it folks, all of our plalaber is worthless unless someone makes these failed politicians do their jobs.

Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 2:30 pm
With great sadness I think Earnest at 12:07 nails it. Rauner (as his income statements attest) is a bright, extremely adept vulture capitalist. As such, what is going on in Illinois can be assumed to be what he intended.
The only real question is what it will take to stop him?
For some reason I have an image in my head of Danny DeVito as the Penguin having taken control of the Batmobile, not stopping ’til his grip was broken.
Sad.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 2:51 pm
Anonymous 2:51 was me. Sorry.

Comment by 37B Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 2:52 pm
Rauner wants to take away as much government as possible from ordinary state workers and give it to corporations. Push down labor costs and regulations and give more of that big, fat government money to wealthy private owners. Why else does he insist on unfettered privatization without efficiency and economy safeguards?

I lean toward those who believe that Rauner thinks the state is such a mess because of public sector unions, Democratic leaders and others that unless he imposes his vision, it’s better that the state breaks apart so it’s a test case for bankruptcy or the election of more Republicans. Then there could be mass privatization–the vulture capitalism–the gobbling up of the “distressed company.”

The problem, of course, is that Rauner is very complicit in the system he hates. He makes tons of money off of collectivism–public employee pensions and salaries negotiated by those loathed public sector unions. It really shows his character and what kind of person he is, that he despises those who help enrich him. To make it worse, the people he hates, union leaders and activists, live paycheck to paycheck.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Apr 14, 17 @ 3:23 pm