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Watch out for the waves

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Illinois

* I don’t know much of anything about Virginia politics, but I do know a thing or two about waves. Check this out…

* VA 2008 President: D+6.3%

* VA 2009 Governor: R+17.3%

* VA 2012 President: D+3.9%

* VA 2013 Governor: D+2.6%

* VA 2016 President: D+5.3%

* VA 2017 Governor: D+9%

As sometimes happens with these waves, the prevailing party did better than the polls predicted. RCP’s polling average from 10/29-11/5 had the Democrat up by 3.3 percent.

* More…

Virginia Democrats are poised to claim at least a share of control of the House of Delegates after erasing a 32-seat Republican advantage in a “tsunami election,” with control of the chamber likely to be ultimately decided by vote recounts.

Northern Virginia journalist Danica Roem made history by becoming the first openly transgender candidate elected to the Virginia legislature, while her party appeared to make a epochal gain in power in a legislative chamber that has been under an iron Republican grip.

Democrats picked up three open seats — including one in Henrico County — and knocked off at least 13 Republican incumbents on Tuesday to draw even in power in the House, pending recounts that could still swing in either direction.

For whatever reason, when some folks look at off-year elections, they insist on talking only about 2010 and 2014. They forget about 2006.

Illinois is definitely not Virginia (nobody else has the “Mike Madigan issue,” for instance) and there’s a very long way to go before November, 2018. But the current trend is not the Republican Party’s friend.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:32 am

Comments

==(nobody else has the “Mike Madigan issue,” for instance)==

Jersey’s pretty close with Norcross. Maybe that looks better for Republi- oh. Oh, dear.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:35 am
Trump is a drag and the headwinds are against the Republicans. But attaching Rauner to Trump can only go so far. Rauner can be held accountable by his own record.

And his own record was that he attempted reform and was blocked everywhere. And thus the finger is pointed at Madigan.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:35 am
Trump will revive the national Democratic party. Yesterday’s elections are just the beginning. The dems retook the Virginia state house which was thought impossible.

Thanks Donnie!

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:36 am
Rauner has nothing to do with Trump. I will vote for Rauner again and vote for every national dem I’m allowed to.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:37 am
===New Jersey is routinely a Democratic state===

Not statewide. They go back and forth.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:37 am
Reality, the polls showed Gillespie close, it was a blowout. And the dems did the thought impossible, retake the Virginia state house.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:38 am
Can’t wait to see Rauner’s “surfer dude” costume

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:38 am
Maine voted to expand medicaid for all. The Trumpy governor there is having seizures due to that.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:39 am
Well Rich, I’ll tell you, surfing’s not a sport, it’s a way of life, it’s no hobby. It’s a way of looking at that wave and saying, “Hey bud, let’s party!”

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:39 am
The trend is further shown by the continualy updating list of ILGA retirements, where the Dem side is mostly about running for higher office and the GOP isn’t. IL GOP had 3 wide open State-wide races (SoS, Treas, Comp) and couldn’t get anyone from the current ILGA to run.

Comment by Doofman Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:39 am
GA dems picked up seats in the state assembly.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:39 am
This is a small victory but VA has a 60% college educated population if dems. A good night but not like VA in ‘09. If you look at the cross tabs from exit polls this was more of a push than a win. Democrats did not make gains in demos needed to win back the house. That said I would not sleep easy if I worked for Roskam.

Comment by Come on Man! Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:40 am
WA dems won a special election and now control the entire WA state government.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:40 am
Once the Republic Tax Cut Bill is detailed to the voting public R’s will be swimming upstream all over the country.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:41 am
The person hijacking my handle at 11:36 a.m. is not me.

Get your own name.

Comment by Reality Check Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:41 am
Rauner has to ride the primary wave first.

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:41 am
National republicans should be very, very afraid. Donnie now has a 35% approval rating.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:42 am
===Rauner has nothing to do with Trump===

This is NOT true until Rauner himself denounces Trump, “Trumpism”, the racist, hate, divisiveness… until Rauner publicly denounces it like others have in the actual GOP…

… Rauner IS Trump and Trump IS Rauner.

So far? Silence to that specific ask.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:42 am
– But attaching Rauner to Trump can only go so far. –

Yeah, keep telling yourself that. But I’m guessin’ Rauner/Trump will be the Dem opponent next year.

The VA House has 100 members. Yesterday, the Dems flipped 15 GOP seats for sure with another four going to recounts.

That’s a whuppin’ in any league.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:42 am
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/08/28/gov-rauner-signs-the-trust-act/

Here you go Oswego.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:44 am
It’s a bit of a double whammy with Rauner only having slightly better approval/disapproval than Trump.

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:44 am
Trump is the best thing National Democrats could have hoped for.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:44 am
Virginia has been trending blue for quite some time.

Both of their U.S. Senators are Democrats - and while their Congressional delegation is 7-4 in favor of Republicans that could be due to redistricting under Bob McDonnell during the most recent census. That will obviously change this time around.

The northern D.C. suburbs are very blue.

Comment by Curl of the Burl Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:46 am
https://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/rauner-to-announce-decision-thursday-on-abortion-trigger-bill/

Another great Rauner action. Very unTrumpian.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:46 am
Curl, the governorship goes back and forth in Virginia. The election was supposed to be close between Northam and Gillespie.

It was a blowout.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:47 am
Exit polls said 50% of people were voting against Trump in Virginia.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:48 am
Um… - Ron -

Sen. Flake, Sen. Corker, Sen. McCain have denounced Trump.

Former Presidents have denounced Trump.

Rauner signed a bill.

That’s not denouncing Trump.

Good try, thou…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:48 am
I just hope the national republicans keep their heads buried in the sand like some commenters here.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:48 am
Yet Corker, Flake and McCain vote for trumpian things. Actions matter, not words.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:49 am
The fact that Virginia is trending blue doesn’t change the reality that it was a wave election yesterday in Virginia.

Democrats won in parts of the state where they haven’t been competitive in the past and Northam, who ran a poor campaign according to many, outperformed Hillary’s Virginia win by 4-5 points.

Comment by slow down Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:51 am
- Ron -

Rauner IS Trump, Trump IS Rauner…

As a white male, Rauner could repudiate all that is Trump, but Rauner refuses to even say “Trump”

If you’re saying Rauner is a liberal Democrat in his actions, that fun too, given Rauner won’t denounce Trump or say his name.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:51 am
==Good try, thou…==

I don’t think you believe it was a good try.

Comment by Chris Widger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:52 am
@Curl of Burl:
Since the Reconstruction Era, Virginia has had forty-three governors and only six were Republicans. At one point, Democrats held the governorship for ninety-six consecutive years before a Republican was elected in 1970. Big pick up for the Dems indeed.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:53 am
The only downside is now that Northam won, JBP is going to keep up those oh-so-cringy anti-Trump ads that I can never escape.

Comment by DuPager Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:54 am
And when were those six governors?

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:54 am
When Rauner goes after Trump as Gov. Kasich has… with policy, politics, and a great understanding to governing, then Rauner isn’t Trump.

Kasich is the standard for “GOP” Governors.

There’s no question Kasich isn’t with or “IS” Trump

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:55 am
Ever hear of the Civil Rights movement? What happened to southern dems?

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:55 am
==If you’re saying Rauner is a liberal Democrat in his actions, that fun too, given Rauner won’t denounce Trump or say his name.==

Right. Because then he would do worse in the election. It’s the same reason that both sides consistently put short-term appeasements to interest groups over long-term fiscal health for the state. It’s the same reason Dems refused to consider a minimum wage hike even after getting a mandate from the state after the 2014 referendum. If your point is “Hey, Rauner sure won’t do the right thing that hurts his campaign chances,” it seems to both be true and be boringly true. I also would be very happy if Brett Hundley deliberately threw several interceptions to Bears players this Sunday, but I expect him to instead act rationally. It’s weird that you don’t seem to understand that.

Comment by Chris Widger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:55 am
Voting for the most liberal immigrant protection in the nation speaks more than words. Get up to speed Oswego.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:56 am
I hope the national rebublicans follow the Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:53 am: program.

The dems with take the Senate and the House.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:57 am
===Ever hear of the Civil Rights movement? What happened to southern dems?===

They became Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” and the “silent majority” dog whistle.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:57 am
Is that the new standard? Every single politician has to publicly denounce every single unpopular member of their party or else they will be assumed to endorse every single policy of that unpopular politicians?

Careful what you wish for OW, your buddy is neck deep in unpopularity.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:58 am
===Voting for the most liberal immigrant protection in the nation speaks more than words. Get up to speed…===

So, to fight off the Dem wave, Rauner evolves into a liberal Dem?

That’s a twist?

Conservatives should abandon a Democrat running as a Republican.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 11:59 am
–Since the Reconstruction Era, Virginia has had forty-three governors and only six were Republicans. At one point, Democrats held the governorship for ninety-six consecutive years before a Republican was elected in 1970. Big pick up for the Dems indeed. -

What does that have to do with anything? Are you of the opinion that “since Reconstruction” the Democratic and Republican parties have had constant governing ideologies?

Both parties, especially in Dixie, have gone through some serious transformations over the years. It was in all the papers, for decades.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:00 pm
It’s about voter turnout, not persuasion.

Few people will change their minds on Rauner because of Trump, however disgust with Trump could motivate people to vote who might not have otherwise voted.

Also, if Rauner continues to tack left on social issues, value voters have less incentive to bother to show up and vote.

I suspect the key to the Virginia results yesterday is less about individual people changing their political loyalties and more about which people showed up to vote.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:00 pm
===Voting for the most liberal immigrant protection in the nation speaks more than words===

Man, you really think voters are paying very close attention, don’t you? Virginia voters seem pretty convinced that a Republican at any level enables the Trump agenda, and they acted accordingly.

Comment by One hand //ing Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:01 pm
===Every single politician has to publicly denounce every single unpopular member of their party or else they will be assumed to endorse every single policy of that unpopular politicians===

If you can’t denounce overt racism, divisiveness, hate in your party, then what do you stand for?

I’m with Kasich, Corker, Flake, McCain..,

You pull Dem ballots…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:02 pm
Folk can say VA was trending blue or whatever but the Congressional delegation, Senatr and House were all controlled by Republicans. That tells me the state is much more R at the local level.

Republicans dismiss and discount the results in VA and elsewhere yesterday at their own peril.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:02 pm
Are you for any Illinois Republicans? You are not an Arizona, Tennessee or Ohio resident.

Are you lecturing everyone about divisiveness? Your “reasonable and moderate” hero is not Mr. inclusion in case you missed it.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:07 pm
===Are you for any Illinois Republicans===

We’ve gone thru this, asked and answered, numerous times.

When praise is warranted and deserved, I’ve done so. Being Raunerites isn’t worth praise.

===Are you lecturing everyone about divisiveness?===

I see it this way, specific to POTUS…

Either you are for racism, divisiveness, and hate… or you’re not.

When Illinois Republicans would like to embrace the takes of Kasich, Flake, Corker, and McCain… I can embrace that too.

As to the “wave” here…

Raunerism and Trumpism should be obliterated, as both destroy.

Linking them, Rauner destroying Illinois’ social services and state universities, and Trump destroying the institutions of the Presidency and what it stands for…

… none of these are Republican ideals and I hope both Raunerism and Trumpism face a wave like Virginia… but a year is like 10 real years… so we’ll see

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:14 pm
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:04 pm:

If you could think, you would understand how dumb your statement was.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:15 pm
11:53 - and your point is what? Virginia’s governor’s mansion has been split 6-6 since 1970.

This is big because you never know when the U.S. House could become as tight as the U.S. Senate and a Democratically-remapped Virginia could theoretically tilt the balance.

Comment by Curl of the Burl Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:16 pm
===Since the Reconstruction Era===

This is just one more reason why I need to find a way to block commenters who won’t pick a name.

What a stupid thing to write.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:19 pm
I also didn’t follow the national races but heard that the Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate didn’t embrace Trump and tried to be a “Trumpless Trump,” acting like Trump/supporting his positions but not openly running as a Trump Republican.

Does that hurt Republicans, to not embrace Trump? He’s very unpopular but still has strong Republican support. He’s doing so many great things and signing so much great legislation for this country, standing up to North Korea, making the stock market boom, you’re not gonna believe it.

I love the victory the transgender candidate won yesterday over her opponent who pushed an anti-transgender bathroom bill.

It’s a shame, folks, that cowardly Republicans are running away from the most successful

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:20 pm
I hope the national republicans do keep their heads buried deep up Trump’s rear.

Last night, a transgender woman unseated one of Virginia’s most socially conservative lawmakers to become the first openly transgender member of the House of Delegates.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:21 pm
Here’s hoping our IL GOP Congresscritters take stock of this wave and rethink their support for the tax bill Ryan is pushing to screw over Illinoisans by repealing the state and local income tax deduction.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:21 pm
–Since the Reconstruction Era, Virginia has had forty-three governors and only six were Republicans. At one point, Democrats held the governorship for ninety-six consecutive years before a Republican was elected in 1970. Big pick up for the Dems indeed. -

I see the Whigs winning big in 2018.

Comment by Montrose Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:23 pm
….If you can’t denounce overt racism, divisiveness, hate in your party, then what do you stand for?

I’m with Kasich, Corker, Flake, McCain..,

You pull Dem ballots…

Ouch LP, That’s gonna leave a mark.

Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:24 pm
Gillespie is a traditional GOP who did not embrace Trump on most things. This says little one way or the other about other states in 2018 or the country in 2020, which is a LONG way off in any case.

VA is an increasingly blue state as the northern Virginia suburbs grow much faster than the rest of the state, the growth being mostly federal employees and contractors who, of course, lean very Democratic. Gillespie showed that the traditional GOP approach without Trump’s populism cannot overcome headwinds. As he wasn’t “Trumpian” it says little one way or the other about Trump.

Northam was a good mainline Democratic candidate running to succeed another mainline Democrat who did a decent job, in a state trending Democtratic. Northam won, as almost all the polling said he would, and as one should have expected.

None of that has much to do with Illinois, where Rauner’s destructive over-reach with nothing to show for it, combined with angering much of the GOP base by extending public funding for abortions, make a Democratic victory in 2018 the odds-on likelihood–nothing to do with Virginia. It is the Democrats’ race to lose, and if they don’t screw up they should win, comfortably–not a landslide, but not close.

Comment by Harry Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:25 pm
**It’s about voter turnout, not persuasion.**

It’s both. No way that the VA Dems take control of the House of the Delegates without BOTH turnout and persuasion.

Comment by SaulGoodman Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:26 pm
Personally, I believe that Rauner is a drain on Trump. He’s that bad.

Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:26 pm
“I suspect the key to the Virginia results yesterday is less about individual people changing their political loyalties and more about which people showed up to vote.”
@Hamlet’s Ghost– I’m going to go ahead and say you are SPOT ON with that. Virginia holds open primaries, the state party doesn’t endorse or donate money to choice candidates and unions are free to provide funding and endorse whomever they choose….crazy how that results in wins and high turnout.

Comment by ILDemVoter Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:27 pm
“No way that the VA Dems take control of the House of the Delegates without BOTH turnout and persuasion.”

This

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:29 pm
What evidence can you cite that Rauner is pro racism?

Apparently being pro sanctuary city is not enough for you. The new Democratic governor of Virginia came out publicly against sanctuary cities, which do not exist in Virginia. Does that make him a racist in your book?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:29 pm
The new Democratic Governor of Virginia also vote for George W Bush twice. Before he gave his acceptance speech, loud protesters had to be removed from the room. He is hardly the face of the national Democratic party today.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:33 pm
Rauner one of the few adults in state politics. The vast majority of our local pols are horrible. Illinois is circling the drain economically, yet our legislators think more of the same will do the trick.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:35 pm
===Apparently being pro sanctuary city is not enough for you. The new Democratic governor of Virginia came out publicly against sanctuary cities, which do not exist in Virginia===

If Rauner wants to run as a liberal Dem, he should do so.

It was you that said HB40 was so liberal it couldn’t get passed and signed in “California”… yet, after lying to a Catholic Cardinal, Rauner signed that liberal bill too..,

Your case that Rauner is a liberal Dem is an interesting one.

===What evidence can you cite that Rauner is pro racism?===

Rauner hasn’t denounced Trump like Kasich…

Rauner has been so silent on Trump…

===Does that make him a racist in your book?===

… makes

…the policy…

…more conservative Dem than anything…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:35 pm
Rauner is a traditional liberal, I personally think it’s great. Free enterprise and personal freedom.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:36 pm
===Rauner is a traditional liberal, I personally think it’s great.===

Conservative and Traditional Republicans might not agree..,

… they might vote accordingly in a wave, where being a phony is enough to turn on a Liberal Dem running as a Republican.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:39 pm
In her victory speech, and on tv, the way Danica Roem…first trans state representative in the country (who also campaigned based on an infrastructure issue, fixing a particular road…it was on her signs) ended her words was by saying, “Stronger Together.”

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:39 pm
===Gillespie is a traditional GOP who did not embrace Trump on most things. This says little one way or the other about other states in 2018 or the country in 2020, which is a LONG way off in any case.===

“Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, was more emphatic:

Let’s put it this way: If Trump weren’t supportive of Gillespie, it would drive a stake into the heart of Gillespie’s candidacy. It’s a fine line. Gillespie needs to be acceptable enough to the Trump voters so that they’ll actually show up to vote. Few will back Northam, so just getting them excited enough to cast a ballot is enough. Gillespie’s TV ad emphasis on immigration, crime, and commutations appears to have tipped the Trump base into Gillespie’s column — assisted by Trump’s supportive tweets. They’re not running to the polls like last year, but walking gets them there too.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/02/opinion/ed-gillespie-trump-virginia.html

Gillespie barely beat a goofy Trump-supporting candidate in the primary. After that close call, Gillespie embraced Trump and adopted his tactics. Oops, big mistake.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:44 pm
Can we just stop the nonsense that the Democrats are the party of the middle class?

The results speak for themselves, middle class families pay the 5th highest tax burden here and we lead the nation in out migration and stagnating wages. From 2007 to 2016 Illinois residents ranked 49th in income growth.

Social services and higher education are suffering because our entire economy is suffering in Illinois. Democrats refuse to budge from their failed policies that their special interests demand.

The next election for Governor in Illinois will not hinge on social issues. It will be won on economic issues. Democrats will have to defend their record and it will not be pretty

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:53 pm
IL GOP better take notice

Comment by VoteQuimby Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:56 pm
Friends, I can’t prove that Rich occasionally creates a thread for discussing national politics for the express purpose of demonstrating the wisdom of his general prohibition against discussing national politics, but nobody’s gonna convince me otherwise…

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 12:59 pm
This is what kills me about Ives supporters. The trend going towards more social moderates, so her plan is fly as hard and fast as possible in the opposite direction.

Comment by ste_with_a_v_en Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:00 pm
===From 2007 to 2016 Illinois residents ranked 49th in income growth.===

Bruce Rauner has failed as governor of Illinois.

BAIER: So what would be different in a second term?

===Social services and higher education are suffering because our entire economy is suffering in Illinois===

I’ll leave social services to Emily Miller and others like her, and Rich’s numerous posts and his coverage to highlight that fit 2 1/2 years Rauner personally crippled social services, so much so The Ounce sued Rauner’s Administration while Diana Rauner thought the whole “thing” was a “business decision”… while J.B. Pritzker and his family and their foundations bailed out Diana’s The Ounce.

To higher ed, Rauner takes real blame there too…

I want to revisit this from Chancellor Robert Jones found in Crain’s… http://bit.ly/2hHXAVN

===“Given the financial challenges facing higher education over the past 25 months, our focus has been on protecting our students’ Illinois experience and ensuring their success…===

That’s on Rauner too.

===The next election for Governor in Illinois will not hinge on social issues. It will be won on economic issues.===

Destroying both social services and higher education… and lying to a Catholic Cardinal and running on liberal Democratic social issues while destroying higher education and social services…

… the wave against Republicans, Trump… what does a second term for Rauner mean for Illinois when the first term was do terrible, and this wave is out there to go after Republicans too?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:05 pm
Classical liberalism is a political ideology that values the freedom of individuals — including the freedom of religion, speech, press, assembly, and markets — as well as limited government. It developed in 18th-century Europe and drew on the economic writings of Adam Smith and the growing notion of social progress.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:06 pm
So the destruction of illinois started when Rauner was elected?

What is the explanation for the decline from 2007 and even earlier when Republicans were not in power?

Democratic successes on unbalanced budgets and job killing policies?

Take that and run on that OW. The second term will govern with a new GA with 1/3 new members who hopefully will reject the failed Madigan policies.

JB will return us to the booming economy of 2007-2014 that caused the previous Democratic Governor to lose.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:15 pm
===So the destruction of illinois started when Rauner was elected?===

As Chancellor Jones points out, Rauner’s personal and purposeful destruction has been documented.

By nearly every measure, Illinois is worse off since Rauner became governor.

You parlay Rauner’s abysmal 30% approval, and an anti-Trump wave that may impact Illinois where Trunp lost by 16 points… whew.

===The second term will govern with a new GA with 1/3 new members who hopefully will reject the failed Madigan policies.===

“… hopefully… “

That’s adorbs. The wave of anti-Republican with Rauner’s own failures… “hopefully”… that’s not going to cut it.

“Bruce Rauner failed… “

Raunerism and Trumpism will cripple Illinois more.

The wave is out there. The underwater numbers and that wave… yikes(?)

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:21 pm
Illinois unemployment is down under Rauner, incomes have increased under Rauner and the Illinois economy has grown under Rauner.

The only thing worse off is public employee feelings.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:22 pm
Representative Scott Taylor, a Republican from Virginia Beach, said he considered the Democratic sweep in Virginia a repudiation of the White House. He faulted Mr. Trump’s “divisive rhetoric” for propelling the party to defeat, and said he believed traditionally Republican-leaning voters contributed to Mr. Northam’s margin of victory.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:26 pm
===The only thing worse off is public employee feelings.===

… and yet Rauner can only muster 30% approval.

Four other governors say Rauner’s Illinois is a failed state, so there’s that too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:26 pm
Representative Scott Taylor, continued

“I do believe that this is a referendum on this administration,” Mr. Taylor said of the elections. “Democrats turned out tonight, but I’m pretty sure there were some Republicans who spoke loudly and clearly tonight as well.”

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:27 pm
Why are you ignoring the terrible economic numbers before 2014 and the refusal of the Democrats to change any policies?

Without a huge cut and paste rehash of your standard ridiculous talking points about a Bret Baier interview nobody saw, how can they run on that?

Trumpism and Raunerism did not exist from 2002 to 2014 and Illinois was crippled with a hostile environment for business.

How can you argue Rauner’s economic policies were implemented and failed?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:27 pm
Seriously, look at Trump’s favorability. Look at Rauner’s favorability. What is going to go better for him in Illinois which is more blue than Virginia? Trump is going to become a responsible politician? Rauner is going to pass a budget? The cake is pretty much baked barring a huge event.

For those Ives fans–when was the last time Illinois elected a social conservative state wide?

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:28 pm
===The cake is pretty much baked===

Seriously? We have a year to go, which is a lifetime in IL politics.

Comment by People Over Parties Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:31 pm
I want to second Come On Man at 11:40: we knew Rauner was in deep trouble. When you see results like this, though, for the VA House of Delegates, and the general “energized liberals” turnout issue, you wonder if the Dems really could put Peter Roskam out of the US House come next November.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:33 pm
====Seriously? We have a year to go, which is a lifetime in IL politics.

So what is going to change? This is a serious question. Trump is going to stop angering Democrats and Independents? Rauner is going to do what to change his standing? Being less of a jerk with the new comm team isn’t going to change people’s view of him.

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:34 pm
===Why are you ignoring the terrible economic numbers before 2014 and the refusal of the Democrats to change any policies?===

No.

I’m holding Rauner accountable for his term, as Candidate Rauner held Pat Quinn accountable.

===how can they run on that?===

Pat Quinn failed. Bruce Rauner failed.

“Easy-Peasy”… throw in the anti-Trump wave… wow.

===Trumpism and Raunerism did not exist from 2002 to 2014 and Illinois was crippled with a hostile environment for businesses.===

And yet, just yesterday, in Virginia, an anti-Trump wave engulfed Virginia… and Virginia didn’t have a failed governor like Rauner, who is also a Republican.

===How can you argue Rauner’s economic policies were implemented and failed?===

As a failed governor, Rauner couldn’t get 60 and 30, 71 and 36, and that failing is on every governor. They need to get things done.

Rauner isn’t a victim to his ineptitude, Rauner is just plain inept.

An anti-Trump wave won’t help a failed “GOP” Governor I a state Trump lost by 16 points.

This wave is a referendum on the brand Rauner bought.

Rauner tarnished it first, Trump made it toxic to social norms.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:35 pm
I sure hope Roskam loses. He’s terrible.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:37 pm
How can you argue Rauner’s economic policies were implemented and failed?

They weren’t, but he provided some hope to business owners here who have expanded. Notice, manufacturing in Illinois is still in a death spiral. Wonder why?

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:39 pm
The cake is pretty much baked? Look at only Republican’s favorability and ignore Madigan and Cullerton’s and their hand picked billionaire tax avoiders unpopularity?

Check out the track record of cake baking in Illinois past elections.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight said Brady and Quinn would win one week before the election.

Try to extrapolate how the cake is baked one year out before the candidates are decided, 100 million in ads are run and the debates are held.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:40 pm
===So what is going to change?===

All I know is, I’ve stopped making political predictions. It’s foolish to write Rauner off this early. So, so many things can happen between now and then.

Comment by People Over Parties Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:42 pm
===Try to extrapolate how the cake is baked one year out before the candidates are decided, 100 million in ads are run and the debates are held.

Perfectly pointing out that campaigns generally only matter at the margins. What is going to make Rauner have numbers in a blue state that will get him reelected? He’s running at a disadvantage already in a blue state and then he’s facing a midterm wave.

What’s going to change that? Nothing you mention changes the structural part of the election in any significant way.

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:45 pm
I wonder whether pollsters were overcompensating for being wrong on Trump last year and thus overestimated Republican support. The polling error in Virginia was higher than that of many states in the 2016 presidential election.

In another random thought: Are Virginia governor races a better barometer for whether a wave will hit the following year because there’s no incumbent with the state’s one-term limit?

Comment by John Gregory (ex-IRN) Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:46 pm
=== He’s running at a disadvantage already in a blue state and then he’s facing a midterm wave===

Agreed. He won with a big assist from a red wave. Now he’s gotta figure out how to win reelection in a likely blue wave.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:47 pm
===It’s foolish to write Rauner off this early. So, so many things can happen between now and then.

And this isn’t picking on you, but the idea that we cannot predict many of these races is wrong. These off year elections often demonstrate a strong correlation to the mid-terms.

Take it a step further, and saying that one shouldn’t write off Rauner is fine if one is saying his opponents should run hard against him. However, in the case of analyzing elections asking what makes him viable is a reasonable question and the answer is nothing. Could it change? Sure. Is it likely to change? Not so much.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:50 pm
Anonymous at 1:50 is me. Sorry
==Agreed. He won with a big assist from a red wave. Now he’s gotta figure out how to win reelection in a likely blue wave.

This is the basic point–is there some path? I don’t see it. Can someone show it to me?

This isn’t like Ives where nearly everyone else would have to be off the ballot for her to win and I wouldn’t count out a write in to beat her. Could Rauner win? Sure, but what is it that makes that happen?

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:53 pm
===The polling error in Virginia was higher than that of many states in the 2016 presidential election.

Off year elections often are hard to poll due to figuring out the likely voter model is very tough. The 538 podcast from yesterday gave a decent take on some of this.

Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:54 pm
Are Virginia governor races a better barometer for whether a wave will hit the following year because there’s no incumbent with the state’s one-term limit?”

Partially along with the fact the Dems took the Virginia statehouse in a complete shock to everyone.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:55 pm
==Trump is the best thing National Democrats could have hoped for.==

I, and I assume many other Dems, said the same thing in June 2016. How wrong we were.

Comment by BucknIrish Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:55 pm
I agree with Oswego Willy…the GOP is really forcing my hand into voting for D’s and is rapidly dying on the vine. It’s quite pathetic as the outcome will be a much more liberal, one party government.

Comment by cgo75 Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:57 pm
You are all ignoring the backlash to the huge tax increases in Democratic Cook County and statewide and somehow drawing parallels to a moderate Democrat winning in essence a third Mc Auliffe term in Virginia. There is no Charlottesville or Confederate statue controversy in Illinois.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 1:58 pm
LP, localizing a race during a strong national wave is pretty tough

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:01 pm
===Sure, but what is it that makes that happen?===

I’m not saying he will win. I’m just not certain he will lose. He has the money to compete and run a good campaign operation. He runs decent ads. He’s reaching out to suburban moderates, which is what a Republican needs to do in this state to win. We’ll also see how someone like J.B. Pritzker resonates with people. Will all this be enough to win? Maybe not. I’m just waiting for the race to play out more.

Comment by People Over Parties Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:03 pm
==I wonder whether pollsters were overcompensating for being wrong on Trump last year and thus overestimated Republican support. The polling error in Virginia was higher than that of many states in the 2016 presidential election.==

More likely they were overcompensating for their incorrect predictions in the 2014 VA Senate race with Warner and Gillespie. I remember being shocked at how close that race ended up being. They were actually very accurate with the 2016 estimates (probably the only state that estimated a Hillary win and were pretty accurate.)

Comment by BucknIrish Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:06 pm
==Democrat winning in essence a third McAuliffe term in Virginia.==

He was only elected once (term limits).

==There is no Charlottesville or Confederate statue controversy in Illinois.==

Yes those are social issues, but those issues play into Republican hands. That is why Gillespie used those issues to the fullest in his ads. Rauner wishes he had an issue like that to whack Dems with “They’re attacking our history” gets people nervous and to the polls.

Comment by BucknIrish Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:11 pm
===Rauner wishes he had an issue like that to whack Dems with===

He does: Chicago.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:13 pm
… Rauner IS Trump and Trump IS Rauner.

Wow, that’s such a silly comment.

Comment by Sands Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:39 pm
Rauner is not trump. He signed the countries most liberal immigrant protection bill.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:42 pm
===Wow, that’s such a silly comment.===

Nope.

Not in a wave election and Rauner refusing to separate himself from Rauner… nope.

Virginia is an example where the wave sees a connection that seems “silly”, but the wave says otherwise.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:45 pm
LP, it’s terribly unfair and unbearably sad, but incumbent governors are often forced to run on their records and are tied to incumbent presidents of their own party.

What else is upsetting you today? The sun coming up in the east? That water is wet?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:46 pm
===He signed the countries most liberal immigrant protection bill.===

Why should Republicans support his liberal social agenda?

So Rauner is alienating Republicans because he’s a Democrat, but won’t distance himself from the racism, divisiveness, and hate of Trumpism?

Who is Rauner’s constituency?

This ain’t “O’ Brother Where Art Thou”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:48 pm
Donnie has spent the last year attacking immigrants and minorities. Look what happened in Virginia.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:49 pm
Yes and challengers for the office are forced to run on their party’s record of raising taxes, stifling businesses, irresponsible unbalanced budgets and insider dealing that has led to a decade of stagnant wage growth for the middle class.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:51 pm
LP, if you understand all those obvious things, why do you go on about them every day? Do you get paid by the whine?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:54 pm
- Lucky Pierre -

Pat Quinn failed is now Bruce Rauner failed…

… in a state Clinton carried by 16 points, with Rauner at 30% approval and Rauner refusing to denounce President Trump.

Throw in Rauner signing HB40, sanctuary state legislation and Conservatives threatening to abandon Rauner…

… and you think all that, and a wave, in a state Clinton carried… the Dem agenda will be a negative?

Hmm.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 2:55 pm
I voted for Rauner because he is NOT a social conservative.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:00 pm
Do you think the Dem agenda of raising taxes on the middle class is a winner?

Which was larger- the backlash to Cook County Dems over the property tax and sweetened beverage tax or Republican backlash to HB 40 and sanctuary state legislation?

Most general election voters would say Dems raising taxes and you don’t even list that as an issue. The Speaker and Toni Preckwinkle would disagree with your analysis.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:01 pm
===…he is NOT a social conservative.===

… which is why Rauner possibly losing conservatives in the General, and add a “blue” wave…

“Who is his constituency?”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:02 pm
- Lucky Pierre -

FoxNews’ Bret Baier asked what would be different in Rauner’s second term.

When FoxNews anchors left-handedly call you a failure, and list the failures before that question… who is Rauner’s constituency?

Rauner is a social liberal Democrat.

Why would conservatives vote for a man who lied to a Catholic Cardinal?

Higher ed proponents? Rauner has never fully funded higher education, Chancellor Jones said Rauner’s 25 month as governor hurt the U of I system…

Social Services? Diana Rauner’s The Ounce sued Bruce Rauber as social services closed and JB Pritzker, his family and the their foundations bailed out Diana Rauner…

More debt, and no condemning Trump for the racism, divisiveness, and hate…

Then a wave of the Trump midterm…

Who is Rauner’s constituency?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:09 pm
Correct me if I am wrong, but in the last blue wave election in 2016 that Hillary won by 16% in Illinois, the Republicans picked up 4 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate, even though the maps are gerrymandered in their favor.

It appears I am not the only voter who splits his ticket in Illinois.

Trump was not a drag in the House and Senate races, why do you think that will translate to a drag on Governor Rauner? He does not share Trump’s views on immigration and other divisive issues. Harder than you think to make the case that Rauner = Trump but JB does not = Madigan.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:13 pm
I hadn’t heard that Bret Baier quote or that line about Rauner fails before, fascinating analysis!

Spend 50 million on ads with that message

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:16 pm
===Correct me if I am wrong, but in the last blue wave election in 2016…===

In Illinois, 2016 was a blue wave?

I don’t think that word means what you think it means? LOL

===Trump was not a drag in the House and Senate races===

… except in the collar countries?

Mendoza?

She beat Rauner’s proxy, son there’s that, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:19 pm
===Spend 50 million on ads with that message===

It would be gross malpractice not to use at least 3 clips from that interview.

Bruce Rauner fails.

Ask Pat Quinn if that’s hard to shake, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:21 pm
Think the Democratic turnout will be bigger in a non presidential year?

You would be the first person to think that

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:24 pm
===Think the Democratic turnout will be bigger in a non presidential year?

You would be the first person to think that===

Wave elections is about choosing one side as a wave that the other can’t overcome.

Your “constituency” answer is hoping for depressed turnout?

Oh boy.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:26 pm
LP, since your job probably depends on Rauner winning, you should probably spend less time hoping and whining on capfax and more time figuring out the actual numbers and adding pluses. You can look to history to get an idea about what next year might look like.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:31 pm
OW can you help JB measure the drapes in the Governor’s mansion?

The turnout for the last Governor’s election was 2 million less voters than in a Presidential year.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:46 pm
==So the destruction of illinois started when Rauner was elected?==

It didn’t stop, and he’s the one on the ballot next year.

We threw Pat Quinn out over a stagnant economy and falling population. No reason Rauner should get treated any better.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:51 pm
===The turnout for the last Governor’s election was 2 million less voters than in a Presidential year.===

Campaigns are won on plurality, not raw ballots cast.

Don’t worry, I can’t think of any rational, legitimate, professional campaign in this whole state that takes what I say even remotely serious.

That goes for the caucuses too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:52 pm
Except Quinn wanted to keep the policies that led to the falling population and stagnant economy and Rauner wants to change them

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:55 pm
LP’s Q: Think the Democratic turnout will be bigger in a non presidential year?

A: That depends on whether the “Virginia effect” or the “Trump effect” transfers elsewhere.

Being angry at Trump won’t persuade a Rauner supporter to flip but it might persuade committed Dems to actually vote rather than stay home.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:58 pm
–Except Quinn wanted to keep the policies that led to the falling population and stagnant economy and Rauner wants to change them–

What are you talking about? The governor is on the TV box braggin’ about the thousands of jobs he’s creatin’ and how unemployment is the lowest in years.

Plus, all that money he’s spendin’ on schools.

Might be time for a reboot. You’re off-message.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 3:58 pm
===Who is Rauner’s constituency?===

He’s pivoting toward suburbanites.

Comment by People Over Parties Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:00 pm
===Rauner wants to change them===

Rauner has failed.

Even in his ad, Rauner says he’s lost… “some”

Rauner said he won “some” too… won what, I dunno, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:00 pm
Chicago is creating jobs. The rest of the state is losing them. The rest of the state is agricultural and formerly manufacturing. How about those unions?

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:01 pm
Ignoring Trump could be a positive move for Rauner. Some people, and I would say especially moderates, don’t want to hear about Trump all the time. Some people might see his refusal to say his name as cowardly, others may see it as staying above the fray.

Comment by BucknIrish Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:02 pm
==Except Quinn wanted to keep the policies that led to the falling population and stagnant economy and Rauner wants to change them==

What he “wants” is irrelevant, because he can’t get it done. He has demonstrated that. The economy continues to stagnate. People continue to flee the state. The bill backlog continues to increase. He “wants” something else? Adorable. But he can’t pull it off.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:04 pm
Actually, illinois economic growth picked up last year.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:16 pm
LP, Trump beat a blue wave in 2016. How? He wasn’t president.

But in 2018 he will be in office two years. Any wave at all will be his.

Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 4:43 pm
Circular logic

Because Rauner has failed to reverse the failed polices of the Democrats, Illinois voters will reward those Democrats who raised taxes and did not pass any reforms by giving them back total control of Springfield.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 5:20 pm
===Circular logic===

Nope.

Pat Quinn failed. Quinn can’t run on his record. Quinn loses.

Bruce Rauner failed. Rauner can’t run on his record…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 5:23 pm
–Circular logic.–

You’ve got it all figured out, Mr. Spock. Set phasers to chill.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 5:25 pm
Ron. I voted for Rauner because I thought he was a fiscal conservative. My bad.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Nov 8, 17 @ 10:13 pm