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Ives claims she’s within 10 points of Rauner

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Illinois
Polls

Ives expressed confidence in her chances.

“Well, we’re not going to reveal the specifics, but I will tell you that we believe we’re within 10 points of Gov. Rauner, which is phenomenal considering where we started,” [Rep. Jeanne Ives] said.

Rauner’s campaign declined to comment about Ives’ claims about polling.

That might explain some things (including maybe the gun bill veto threat) if it’s true, but I’ve called around and can’t confirm it. We’ll see if this smokes anyone out.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 12:55 pm

Comments

That he got her with the Madigan tag says so much about the attention span of the American voter. She may have competed if he hadn’t gone down that incredibly false and incredibly effective route.

Comment by PJ Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:05 pm
So why don’t they just release their poll numbers? Otherwise it just sounds like the typical play of a losing candidate trying to inflate their chances late to encourage supporters to still go to the polls

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:06 pm
I have heard there are many Republicans in my area who are going to vote for Ives over Rauner. They want to send a message to the Gov. especially about abortion. A couple told me that they expect Rauner will win but they want to make it as close as possible. My response was you have a right to vote as you see fit, but I doubt you are going to change Rauner.

Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:07 pm
She also said she had some Democrats who loved her “thank you Rauner” ad.

Comment by Ste_with_a_ven Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:08 pm
In campaign speak, that means they are really 15-19% out. Round down to the nearest ten. How about a weeks long recount for Republican gubernatorial candidate? that would be exciting.

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:08 pm
SureJan.gif

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:08 pm
It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are for GOP/Dem primary ballots cast in Illinois.

Got to think that lower GOP turnout hurts Rauner as soft/moderate Republicans pull Dem ballots where there is more perceived action in the gov and AG primaries and the hard core GOP base may go with Ives due to her purity.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:09 pm
Well everyone at the pancake house down there on Halfway Road loves Jeanne.

Comment by Radio Flyer Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:10 pm
This wouldn’t surprise me. This is shaping up as a race for the base, and the base isn’t happy with the Governor. Can’t know what’s happening in other areas, but she’s worked hard downstate and she’s got some solid support in DuPage and Kane.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:12 pm
If she were that close, wouldn’t Uihlein kick in some $$$ to push her over the top? Or, perhaps, he just wanted to knock Rauner down but not out.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:12 pm
HGF, that’s a pretty good take, and Ives’ best hope.

It would have been interesting if that Uihlein money could have gone to a real pro with a good track record, rather than be contingent on handing it over to Proft.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:13 pm
It’s also tricky when you consider the Trump voters who don’t have a voting history the pollsters can use to weight them. Will they show up at the polls? IF so, it seems they are unlikely to support Rauner.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:14 pm
Is Ives’ number spiking up towards Rauner’s — or is the Rauner number plunging down towards Ives?

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:17 pm
And Rauner just vetoed the gun bill. Coincidence or is he running scared?

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:17 pm
In 2014 roughly 60% of the primary voters cast a vote for someone other than Rauner. In the past 4 years he hasnt made many friends.

These results wouldn’t shock me

Comment by Generation X Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:17 pm
What fun the last month and a half of session would be if Ives wins the primary.

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:18 pm
The closeness the election undoubtedly explains Rauner’s veto.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:19 pm
Pck, In a number of polls I’ve seen, 18-22% of GOP primary voters are self identifying as Trump voters. Could be they’re easier to get to participate. Tea Party self identifiers are more participatory in polls than their final numbers suggest; 17-19% on a series of polls in Kane/DuPage.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:20 pm
===We’ll see if this smokes anyone out.===

Yep. I would like to see the numbers and the polling source

Rauner isn’t a Republican, but Ives is as “toxic” as Rauner but in ways far more disappointing and pointed to our worse selves.

Rauner’s quick veto today is a “tell”, until it isn’t… so show me the poll.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:24 pm
God help us all if Proft/Ives wins

Comment by the old man Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:25 pm
===Is Ives’ number spiking up towards Rauner’s — or is the Rauner number plunging down towards Ives?===

More of the first than the second, but both are occurring. Ives seemed to hit a hurdle. Rauner seemed to hit a wall. Undecideds are trying to rationalize their vote for Ives I believe. Many have already rationalized that they can’t support the Governor. It’s simply amazing how few signs he has up in DuPage and Kane. Last time his presence was very strong. You rarely come across one now. PCs aren’t grabbing them from headquarters either. This could be a surprise, but it’s less of a shock with each passing day.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:25 pm
For a campaign that started with Ives being a “fringe” candidate, to running the completely false Madigan/Ives ad, I wouldn’t be surprised if this primary comes down to the thousands of votes.

Comment by Logan Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:26 pm
==so show me the poll==

I would guess the weighted polls (based on traditional filters) show Ives behind by more than 10%, but the Ives and Rauner camps probably have other models that show Ives closer than 10%. They won’t show those polls because the models are iffy at best and include folks with little to no track record of showing up for the Primary. That’s my guess.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:30 pm
=I wouldn’t be surprised if this primary comes down to the thousands of votes.=

Show me the plant you are smoking, because I would love to enjoy what ever you are on.

Comment by Iggy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:30 pm
–Pck, In a number of polls I’ve seen, 18-22% of GOP primary voters are self identifying as Trump voters.–

Huh? What do the other 80% identify as?

How is it that the percentage of GOP voters that identify with Trump is lower than his overall approval rating in the state?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:31 pm
Even in Republican primaries, conservative candidates generally don’t win. As unpopular as moderate Republicans are with conservative voters, they don’t lose the primary, they lose the general.

Comment by anonin Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:44 pm
I hope republicans do Rauner the same way dems did Ken Dunkin.. On primary day show up with “Vote Against Bruce Rauner” signs.

Comment by Real Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:50 pm
Gotta love a contested primary. Bruce. Your gonna get smoked in the general. You might be able to smoothe things over with some Chicago area progressives with this blame Madigan theme, but us sophisticated dpwnsyate cpnservative independents wont. We’ll be staying at home.

Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 2:02 pm
Well, if she pulls it off, whoever the Dem nominee is gets my vote.

Comment by Ron Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 2:17 pm
I voted early yesterday and voted for Ives. I’m as mainstream GOP as you can get and running against Rauner is the only way Ives could ever get my vote for anything. But being part of the Anybody But Rauner club means I’m part of the Ives surge.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 2:28 pm
@ Iggy

I’m not saying it’s going to happen lol. I’m just saying this “could” be closer than people think which wouldn’t surprise me.

Comment by Logan Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 2:35 pm
Ives can’t win. She’s run on awful campaign. But Rauner could lose. That’s how unpopular he is.

Comment by Chris P. Bacon Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:00 pm
==It’s simply amazing how few signs he has up in DuPage and Kane.==

You should look around downstate. I’ve seen one Rauner sign, in an empty lot with all the local Republican signs.

Signs don’t vote, of course, and I get the feeling Rauner’s camp has simply de-prioritized them.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:15 pm
Ives has been a gift for the dems. A year ago I bet Brucey didn’t think he’d have to spend this much money in a primary challenge. They’ve forced him to blow campaign money.

Comment by Alex Ander Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:21 pm
==Huh? What do the other 80% identify as?==

Assuming it’s a serious question. So, Tea Party, Trump Republicans, Traditional Republicans, Moderate Republicans, Independents (Surprising number of people who self identify as Independents who’ve never pulled anything but an R ballot)

To your second question; the polling samples are composed of whomever actually answers the phone. Some groups are more likely to be polled than others. It’s been very difficult to get enough women in these things to replicate their actual participation level in elections.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:32 pm
== and I get the feeling Rauner’s camp has simply de-prioritized them.==

Agreed. But by default, not on purpose.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:35 pm
One should never pass up a chance to vote against Bruce Rauner.

Comment by James Knell Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:44 pm
==But by default, not on purpose.==

Hmm, not sure about that, at least insofar as the difference between the two may not be so stark. But I’ll agree that it’s a (relatively) minor mistake.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:44 pm
== smoothe things over with some Chicago area progressives with this blame Madigan theme ==

Blue Dog, real progressives don’t vote for people like Rauner. Not ever.

Comment by James Knell Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 3:56 pm
“Ives has been a gift for the dems.”

Nope.

By comparison, Ives has made Rauner appear nearly human.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 4:30 pm
Lol @ “real progessives”

Comment by Ron Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 4:31 pm
===By comparison, Ives has made Rauner appear nearly human.===

Yep.

In the general election, Rauner will use Ives to rehab himself every chance he can now.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 4:32 pm
===Tea Party, Trump Republicans, Traditional Republicans,===

I’m pretty sure those are the same people, but what do I know.

From where I sit, I’d say there are only two kinds of Illinois Republican voters: Proft voters and Rauner voters. The other groupings are distinctions without differences.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 4:34 pm
RICH this Rep Gov primary is a joke. If she is 10 pionts down and the undecided break even then this is what a 15 point win for Rauner and now we can get to JB and dirty him up.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 4:46 pm
Proft did the poll himself and charged the campaign 40k. That’s why they can’t produce it. But hey if people keep throwing money at that charelton he going to keep taking it

Comment by Old Time R Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 6:03 pm
JamesKnell. Neither do real conservatives. Somebody is in big trouble.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 6:51 pm
I think she’s right.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 7:09 pm
47th @ 4:34

OW is aching after that remark.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 7:38 pm
===OW is aching after that remark.===

Yeah, it stung. I’ve said similar. Still hurts reading it.

I’m with Durkin, but that puts me with Rauner over Proft.

There isn’t enough Yuengling…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 7:42 pm
–Even in Republican primaries, conservative candidates generally don’t win. As unpopular as moderate Republicans are with conservative voters, they don’t lose the primary, they lose the general.–

Yep…and even when the conservatives win the primary, they tend to lose, too…e.g. Bill Brady, 2010 Gubernatorial Election.

Comment by JakeCP Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 8:38 pm