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NBC Poll: Pritzker leads Rauner by 16 points

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Pritzker 46
Rauner 30
Jackson 6
McCann 4

They didn’t say during the broadcast, but that would be 14 percent undecided [. So Pritzker’s lead would be greater than the undecideds.

Rauner’s unfavorable rating is at 52 percent, according to the poll. His unfavorable rating is about twice the size of his favorables.

Pritzker is at 38 favorable, 35 unfavorable.

Pritzker leads among women and men. Pritzker also leads everywhere but the collar counties. But Rauner is only at 40 percent in the collars.

* From the story just posted online…

In addition to the race for governor, 49 percent of respondents preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 35 percent preferred Republicans in charge. The state has at least three tight U.S. House races slated for November.

The results also indicated 56 percent of registered voters in Illinois disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job so far. In 2016, Trump got 38 percent of the vote in Illinois.

“President Trump and his job rating at 31 percent is dragging down Republicans up and down the ticket potentially,” Murray said.

Twenty-seven percent of Illinois voters named economy and jobs as the most important factor in their vote. Another 19 percent said health care, 14 percent said immigration and 11 percent said federal taxes and spending, according to the poll.

* The poll was taken August 12-16. But this is odd and I don’t understand it…

The NBC/Marist poll of Illinois was conducted Aug. 12-16 of 831 adults (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.2 percentage points) and 734 registered voters (plus-minus 4.4 percentage points).

I’ll ask for clarification.

…Adding… The crosstabs are here, along with an answer to my question.

…Adding… The crosstabs show the results shown above are for registered voters and undecideds are at 13 percent. “Other” is at 2 percent.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:10 pm

Comments

Toplines and sample description: http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNews_MaristPoll_IllinoisAnnotatedQuestionnaire_August2018_1808201129.pdf

Comment by Anon62704 Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:13 pm
Even more: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Illinois_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_August-2018_1808201128.pdf#page=3

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_Illinois_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_August-2018_1808201128.pdf#page=1

Comment by Anon62704 Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:15 pm
Wow… Pritzker leads downstate? Reelection is doomed. But the real story is Jackson leads McCann. I guess any publicity (even domestic abuse) is good publicity, eh?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:16 pm
===But the real story is Jackson leads McCann===

I have a feeling that will change soon.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:17 pm
The whopping 52% disapproval… Rauner needs to change that if he hopes to make up 16 points.

The polling at 30%, wow, Rauner is a known incumbent at 30%…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:20 pm
===“President Trump and his job rating at 31 percent is dragging down Republicans up and down the ticket potentially,” Murray said.

It’s a nice quote, but according to those numbers Rauner is less popular than Trump in terms of approval.

Ouch.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:22 pm
This is Pritzker with a 16 point lead BEFORE the impact of any Obama ad’s in support of Pritzker. Wait until another month or so and see the gap widen.

Comment by Real Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:23 pm
— I guess any publicity (even domestic abuse) is good publicity, eh?

He’s identified as the libertarian so people are supporting him as an alternative and probably haven’t heard of him. That said, random white guy with a beard won 10% of the vote in 2006 with Blagojevich running.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:24 pm
The Pritzker 46% is pretty solid of a foundation going into Labor Day, the 16 points is enough of a lead to continue the focus on GOTV and making sure the structural foundation of the ground game is tended to with much detail.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:24 pm
===That said, random white guy with a beard won 10% of the vote in 2006 with Blagojevich running.===

Never downplay the political acumen of Rich Whitey.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:25 pm
Rauner needs Trump.

Trump is polling worse than Rauner.

Rauner isn’t even close to 40%

Rod would call this an “up” day.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:36 pm
==So Pritzker’s lead would be greater than the undecideds.==

But not greater than Undecideds + Third Party, and I think Rauner will claw some of the third party voters back by Election Day.

OTOH, I’m not sure I would predict the undecideds to break en masse toward the incumbent…

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:38 pm
Wonder if Rauner feels like giving a 👍 on this news.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:38 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if some Republicans start to throw Rauner under the bus considering he politically is done.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:46 pm
I like the positive Pritzker ads, where he’s in the ad, talking about job creation and paying for school breakfasts. Those make me feel better, instead of just attack ads.

Just stay positive and work real hard at voter turnout and grassroots stuff, because complacency can be lethal. Polls guarantee nothing, as we’ve seen in the last two election cycles.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 5:57 pm
The republicans are under both the Rauner and Trump bus. The only question is how many US and state house races flip and if Rauner decides to stop wasting money.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:17 pm
Do why is this Bozo spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose. Maybe he could donate some to the State

Comment by Sue Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:18 pm
The Trump/Rauner numbers among self-described Independents and Moderates are absolutely brutal.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:18 pm
If this poll is remotely true, Rauner’s attack ads are failing bigly. Now what?

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:18 pm
===why is this … spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose. Maybe he could donate some to the State===

- Sue -

You think Rauner is done?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:21 pm
I would have voted Libertarian but that guy is a super super jerk. Anyway I hear Italy is nice in the fall.

Comment by DuPage Saint Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:24 pm
==Do why is this Bozo spending==

Well at least it’s a step up from your usual juvenile comments about how fat Pritzker is. So…..progress?

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 6:38 pm
It seems like Rauner messed with the wrong one as Madigan is ensuring that he is destroyed in this election. Lol

Comment by Real Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 7:19 pm
I think a lot of Republicans messed with the wrong people after today’s events.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 7:31 pm
==Pritzker also leads everywhere but the collar counties.==

You mean the counties that support the rest of the state? Who’da thunk?

https://capitolfax.com/2018/08/10/study-all-of-downstate-receives-more-from-the-state-than-it-pays-in/

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 7:54 pm
—Rich Whitey.

That’s priceless.

Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:04 pm
So, you’re saying Benjamin Winderweedle has a chance?

Comment by Ryan Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:25 pm
===spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose===

You’re saying he can’t lose? I’m guessing he’s not gonna take your word for it.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:28 pm
CZ…Rauner is only 40% in the collars, so I think your anti tax wave is only a ripple.

Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 8:29 pm
==Do why is this Bozo spending 10’s of millions of dollars on an election he can’t lose.==

Because if he didn’t you’d complain that he was taking the state for granted.

==Maybe he could donate some to the State==

If you’re worried about political parties becoming too dependent on billionaires- and I like JB, but I am- we shouldn’t make the state dependent on them, too.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 9:17 pm
==I think your anti tax wave is only a ripple.==

Ripples are preferred. Waves cause erosion.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 9:33 pm
At this point in the election cycle, shouldn’t polls be of likely voters?

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 9:48 pm
This in a nutshell says a lot about this race. Even if the numbers are a little off.
Rauner is disliked and has been running an entire campaign on how to make people dislike the other guy more. People have seen the freakishly weird obsession with Madigan and just aren’t/can’t buy that everything under the sun is his fault.
As I stated a month ago at some point people want to like the people they vote for. Bruce is not likable he should have been working on improving his own image to get his numbers up this last 2 months then brought JB down to earth in September and October.

Comment by Frank talks Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 11:19 pm
-rich whitey-

You gotta go back 8 years for that reference. Kudos.

Comment by Question Tuesday, Aug 21, 18 @ 11:29 pm
This Governor completely blew it. He had huge opportunity and potential, but refused to negotiate or compromise. Total waste of four years.

Every issue was “I’m 100% and you’re 100% wrong.”

Comment by Not It Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 8:41 am
JB knows he can lose which is why he is spending the money. He is a tax and spend Madigoon, and won’t even deny it. JB is so in Madigan’s pocket he will spend an extra 100 million to win, rather than disavow the speaker.

As long as Rauner makes this race against Madigan he has a punchers chance.

Comment by the Patriot Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 8:57 am
Among liberals, 24% have an unfavorable impression of JB Pritzker.

Among conservatives, 41% have an unfavorable impression of Bruce Rauner.

If I were looking for evidence of an ‘enthusiasm gap’ in the governor’s race, I think I’d start there.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:02 am
I’m happy to say that only 5 percent of blacks support Rauner. White democrats need to educate there republican family members on Rauner. He is behind everywhere else except for the white vote.

Comment by Real Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:08 am
===He is a tax and spend Madigoon===

So, what would you call Rauner.

Signed a budget with a 32% tax increase, and it’s $1.2 billion out of whack.

But, please, go on and talk about tax and spend, lol.

To the Post,

If yuh think about the monies spent by Rauner to get Pritzker’s negative me underwater… and Pritzker is still (barely) above water… and Rauner remains well below water, not just under water… yikes. Rauner has to get likable. Fast.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:08 am
Stating the obvious but Rauner’s entire strategy has been to attack Pritzker and that is not a rationale for reelection.

Comment by slow down Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:11 am
As long as Rauner makes this race against Madigan he has a punchers chance.

-Where have you been the past 4 years? Rauner has been campaigning against Madigan since he has been in office. Its time for you to realize that just because a lot of people dislike Madigan that it means they want Rauner. Polls show they dislike both and that Rauner is the only one between them on a statewide ballot in November.

Comment by Real Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:12 am
“As long as Rauner makes this race against Madigan he has a punchers chance.”

You say that as that has not been Rauner’s entire strategy to date. These numbers tell us that strategy ain’t working so great.

Comment by Montrose Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:14 am
*that it doesn’t mean they want Rauner.

Comment by Real Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:17 am
==JB is so in Madigan’s pocket he will spend an extra 100 million to win, rather than disavow the speaker.==

I’m not sure what you mean when you say “disavow the Speaker”, but a big part of Rauner’s “Because Madigan” strategy has always been to get Democrats to attack each other- because every minute you spend attacking Madigan is a minute you don’t spend attacking Rauner. JB’s team recognized that trap early.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 22, 18 @ 9:21 am