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* Glowing press release with the not great news highlighted by me…
Illinois Unemployment Rate Matches Lowest on Record
August Payrolls Drop first time since January
CHICAGO–The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) announced today that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent in August and nonfarm payrolls decreased by -5,200 jobs over-the-month, based on preliminary data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and released by IDES. The July job gain was revised down slightly from its initial report to show no growth. (+0 jobs versus +3,700 jobs).
Job growth moderated in the June to August period posting average monthly gains of +4,000 jobs over this three-month period, less than the prior 3-month average monthly gain of +8,300 jobs between May and July 2018.
“Illinois’ unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August, matching the lowest rate on record,” said IDES Director Jeff Mays. “Even with the over-the-month drop, nonfarm payrolls have surpassed the prior business cycle peak of September 2000. Jobs are still up more than 47,000 over the year, led by manufacturing.”
“The positive job growth over the last year indicates that efforts to improve the Illinois economy and actively recruit new investment are paying off,” said Illinois Department of Commerce Director Sean McCarthy. “Illinois is seeing the best employment environment since 1999, demonstrating that companies can see the potential to grow in our state.”
In August, the three industry sectors with the largest over-the-month gains in employment were: Professional and Business Services (+900); Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+400); and Financial Activities (+400). The industry sectors with the largest payroll declines were: Leisure and Hospitality (-3,600); Education and Health Services (-1,300); and Construction (-1,200).
Over-the-year, nonfarm payroll employment increased by +47,500 jobs with the largest gains in these industry sectors in August: Manufacturing (+11,300); Government (+10,500); and Financial Activities (+8,200). The industry sectors with over-the-year declines were: Information Services (-3,200) and Other Services (-600). Illinois nonfarm payrolls were up +0.8 percent over-the-year in sharp contrast to the nation’s +1.6 percent over-the-year gain in August.
The state’s unemployment rate is +0.2 percentage points higher than the national unemployment rate reported for August 2018, which held at 3.9 percent. The Illinois unemployment rate is down -0.9 percentage points from a year ago when it was 5.0 percent. The Illinois jobless rate last stood at 4.1 percent in February 1999. The difference between the Illinois unemployment rate and the U.S. rate represents the smallest gap since December 2010.
The number of unemployed workers decreased -1.3 percent from the prior month to 268,700, down -16.9 percent over the same month for the prior year. The labor force decreased -0.1 percent over-the-month and declined -0.2 percent over-the-year. The unemployment rate identifies those individuals who are out of work and are seeking employment.
An individual who exhausts or is ineligible for benefits is still reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work.
My favorite line was how job growth was revised down “slightly,” when it actually went from +3,700 jobs to zero jobs. Also the part where job growth “moderated,” when growth was actually cut in half. That was a good one right there.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:17 pm
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Who could have predicted the best unemployment numbers since 1999 and a booming economy if Republican polices were implemented in Washington DC?
Why wouldn’t it work in Illinois again?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:25 pm
For each of these reports that have been issued over the last few years, whether the numbers were positive or negative, Sean McCarthy would bemoan the state’s performance and tell us how “we need reforms to provide business owners relief and incentives to make our state not only competitive, but attractive to bring good jobs back to Illinois.”
Now it’s a different tune. Did someone get him a pair of rose colored glasses for the upcoming election?
Comment by Henry Francis Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:35 pm
In August 2017, Leisure and Hospitality was down -9,900, presumably a drop off due to seasonal business. This year, it’s only down 3,600. What changed? Stronger tourism this year?
Does IDES ever perform deeper dives into their own statistics?
http://www.ides.illinois.gov/News%20%20Announcements%20Doc%20Library/StatewideSeptember2017.pdf
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:37 pm
==Who could have predicted the best unemployment numbers since 1999 and a booming economy if Republican polices were implemented==
Oh please. That is hyperpartisan nonsense.
To the post . . .
They seem to be singing a different tune since it’s now election time than they did for months and months after Rauner was elected. We started out with “things would be better if we implemented the Governor’s Turnaround Agenda” and now we’ve moved into things are going great.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:39 pm
Just imagine how amazing the numbers would be if we only had term limits /s
Comment by Union thug Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:40 pm
IDES downplayed numbers like these early in the Rauner days, to argue for the Turnaround Agenda. Now they play them up to argue for reelection. They oughta just say here’s the numbers and let others do the spinning.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:47 pm
==In August 2017, Leisure and Hospitality was down -9,900, presumably a drop off due to seasonal business. This year, it’s only down 3,600. What changed? Stronger tourism this year?==
Yes. I don’t know about the tourism industry, but in the convention industry, some shows are annual, some shows are once every two years, and some shows are once every three years. So years that are even numbered have more conventions than odd numbered unless that year can be divided by three. Years that can be both divided by two and three are the best. So 2019 will be slow, 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be good, 2023 will be slow, and 2024 will be out of this world.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:53 pm
One reporting period left before election day, so I suppose things could change, but does this mean Rauner’s job growth numbers now have no chance of matching Quinn’s?
Comment by Roman Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 12:55 pm
Why wouldn’t it work in Illinois again?
Can we print money like they do in D.C.?
Step 1-Run up the national debt to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy.
Step 2-The president wants to print money to pay off the debt.
What could go wrong L.P?
Comment by Ole' Nelson Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:53 pm
==One reporting period left before election day, so I suppose things could change, but does this mean Rauner’s job growth numbers now have no chance of matching Quinn’s?==
Yes, but that was true even before this report. Apparently for Bruce Rauner “4 years of failure” literally means the full four years, and not three-and-a-half years.
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 1:58 pm
Rauner called Quinn a failure even though more jobs were created than have been created under Rauner.
Comment by anon2 Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 2:00 pm
“Zero,” the greatest hit of The Rauner Fail Tour.
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 2:07 pm
Having worked with that data in the past to try to predict things, I always ignored the 3 newest months because the numbers almost always got revised. Sometimes up, sometimes down. And the reports, especially the initial ones, always got spun.
The long term trend is more important than any months data. And how Illinois’ deviates from the national numbers and trends … which it does do.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Sep 20, 18 @ 2:18 pm