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Simon Poll: Trump, tax bill dragging down suburban Republicans

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* Press release…

President Donald Trump’s record in office may prove a drag on Republican candidates for state offices and for the US House of Representatives in Illinois. That is one of the findings of the latest Simon Poll® from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois Carbondale.

The results are based on live telephone interviews with 715 likely voters, a subset of 1,001 registered voters polled statewide. The margin of error for the likely voter sample is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

In addition to Trump’s effect on votes for Illinois offices, the tax reform bill passed last December by the Republican-controlled Congress is unpopular among Illinois voters, and may prove to further hinder the success of GOP Congressional candidates.

More than half (54 percent) of likely voters surveyed said “President Donald Trump’s record in office” made them less likely to vote for Republican candidates for state office in Illinois. Most of those (47 percent) said the president’s record made them much less likely to vote for Republican candidates. By contrast, just under a third (30 percent) said the president’s record made them more likely to vote for GOP candidates for state offices; about a quarter (24 percent) said his record made them much more likely to vote for Republicans.

Large majorities in Chicago (69 percent) and the collar county suburbs (59 percent) said the president’s record would make them less likely to vote for Republicans for state office, compared with about four in ten (39 percent) downstate.

Most Republican voters said the president’s record would make them more likely to support GOP candidates (76 percent), while most Democrats said his record would make them less likely (83 percent). Among Independents, about twice as many said Trump’s record would make them less likely to support GOP candidates for state offices (50 percent) than said it would make them more likely (23 percent).

“We’re not surprised that President Trump’s record is unpopular among Democrats and in urban areas,” said Charlie Leonard, a Simon Institute visiting professor and one of the supervisors of the poll. “What has to concern Republican candidates is his negative impact on votes among Independents and in the suburbs—voters the GOP needs for success statewide.”

The results were similar when interviewers asked about Trump’s record and its effect on their votes for Republican candidates for Congress: 54 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for GOP Congressional candidates, while 32 percent said the president’s record would make them more likely to do so.

Impacts were the same as those for state offices by partisan group and geography. Eight in ten (80 percent) Republicans said the president’s record would make them more likely to vote for GOP Congressional candidates, while eight in ten Democrats (84 percent) said it would make them less likely. As before, his record was twice as likely to have a negative impact than a positive impact on GOP votes for Congress among Independents (50 percent negative vs. 25 percent positive).

Most Chicago and collar county voters (69 percent and 59 percent) said Trump’s record would make them less likely to vote for Republicans in Congress. About four in ten downstate voters (39 percent) said its impact would be negative while 47% said its impact would be positive.

The tax reform bill passed last December by the Republican-controlled Congress and signed by President Trump is unpopular among Illinois voters, according to the Simon Poll. Half (54 percent) oppose it, and about a third (32 percent) support it.

Among those with an opinion on the tax bill, most (56 percent), as before, say it will make them less likely to support Republican candidates for Congress, while about a third (33 percent) say it will make them more so.

Negative electoral impacts from the tax bill were larger in Chicago (70 percent) and its suburbs (63 percent). Downstate, half (51 percent) said the tax bill would make them more likely to support Republican Congressional candidates, while about four in ten (38 percent) said it would make them less likely.

Partisan differences were predictable, with eight in ten Republicans reporting a positive electoral impact from the tax bill (83 percent), and nearly nine in ten Democrats (86 percent) reporting a negative one. Independents were more likely by 20 percentage points to report that the tax bill would make them less likely to vote for a Republican for Congress than to say it would make them more likely to do so (48 percent vs. 28 percent).

“President Trump’s record in office and the GOP tax cuts are only a net asset for Republican candidates downstate, and only the tax cuts garner a narrow majority for the Republicans there. In Illinois a least, both are unlikely to give a significant boost to Republican candidates”, said John S. Jackson, one of the co-directors of the poll.

Peter Roskam was one of the top drivers of that tax bill and nearly two-thirds of suburbanites oppose it. Oof.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:35 pm

Comments

DOW flirting with 27,000 and business metrics that are outstanding and getting better.

Who knew these were bad things???

Comment by Pick a Name Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:38 pm
The ILGOP’s fate in this election was sealed when Trump was elected. He’s too polarizing for outreach and too loud to be ignored.

Comment by TaylorvilleTornado Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:41 pm
===and getting better===

GDP was growing at a solid clip this time four years ago. Didn’t do Obama much good.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:42 pm
To your last point about most suburban voters opposing the tax bill, perhaps now we know one of the key reasons Casten is leading Roskam. Voters are POd and saw through the nonsense about how the bill mostly helped them when the SALT provision actually killed them. The GOP was too cute by half and now, as they say, the chickens are coming home to the roost.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:43 pm
===Who knew these were bad things???===

Trump isn’t polling well in Illinois now. Trump lost Illinois by 16 points.

Trump is dragging on Republicans in Illinois.

Illinois voters polled appear to think Trump things are bad things?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:45 pm
==Who knew these were bad things???==

Hey welcome to the last 8 years of politics in the US

Comment by SWIL Voter Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:45 pm
==Casten is leading Roskam==

He’s not, except for in his own internals.

To the broader point, nothing in this poll is surprising, but then I never fooled myself into thinking that Illinois Republicans could successfully decouple from Trump.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:46 pm
Maybe if Roskam was more interested in what his district wanted instead of worrying over Pritzker’s Chicago property tax refund he wouldn’t be in hot water.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:50 pm
===nothing in this poll is surprising===

Really? Almost 2/3 of suburbanites have a negative view of a tax cut and that is not surprising? It is to me. When I lived in the suburbs, Obama was a commie and Art Laffer was God. Must be Lake County

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:53 pm
=DOW flirting with 27,000 and business metrics that are outstanding and getting better.=

Does the DOW vote?

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:53 pm
Arsenal: Roskam district trending D as we speak.. Trump will cost him minimum of 5 points.. for you sox fans..HE GONE!!!

Comment by Not Rich Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 1:57 pm
“Who knew these were bad things?” How much has your paycheck gone up?

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:00 pm
Take the politics out of the tax bill and ask yourself the famous question Ronald Reagan asked American voters before he won 49 states in 1984.

Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

Is it easier for you to buy things in the store than it was 4 years ago?

Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was 4 years ago?

Many people have no idea whether the tax bill is good or bad for their family until they file their taxes next year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loBe0WXtts8

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:05 pm
“DOW flirting with 27,000″

It appears this metric is not the most meaningful one to most voters.

Comment by Montrose Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:08 pm
“Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?”

So glad LP that you finally acknowledge what a great job Obama did in two of those years.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:20 pm
===Take the politics out of the tax bill and ask yourself the famous question Ronald Reagan asked American voters before he won 49 states in 1984.

Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

Is it easier for you to buy things in the store than it was 4 years ago?

Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was 4 years ago?===

Latest Simon Poll:

Pritzker - 49
Rauner (i) - 27

* i = incumbent.

Those polled, they seem to be telling Rauner…

“We’re not better off, you need to go”

So… Bruce and Diana Rauner tried a mea culpa.

It lasted as long as I thought… a whole afternoon.

What else ya got, cause if you want a failed incumbent to try the Reagan line… I’d let Rauner try it.

LOL

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:20 pm
Donald Trump… is not… Ronald Reagan.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:24 pm
==Almost 2/3 of suburbanites have a negative view of a tax cut==

Most of them didn’t see the benefits of that tax cut, and Democrats did a better job selling their side. That’s been the case for months.

==Arsenal: Roskam district trending D as we speak.. Trump will cost him minimum of 5 points.. for you sox fans..HE GONE!!!==

That’s all quite possible. I’m not predicting a Roskam victory. I’m saying current polls do not show a clear Casten lead.

==Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

Is it easier for you to buy things in the store than it was 4 years ago?==

Nope.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:26 pm
Sure, Dow 27000 means something. Have you seen how much your IRA and 401k have gone up over the last few years ? Oh thats right, you get a Illinois public pension and arnt invested in the markets….

Comment by Silicon Prairie Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:39 pm
“Landslide” JB is at 49% in a state Hillary received 56% of the vote, with a much larger turnout than in an off year election.

This was before the Democratic inspector General accused JB of a “scheme to defraud Cook County”. Think that will turn off any voters to him?

I never said Donald Trump was Ronald Reagan, he clearly isn’t even close.

It is strange for a Republican such as yourself to not admit the economy has clearly improved substantially in the past 20 months.

Pretending the tax reform package that encouraged investment in American jobs had nothing to do with it is a stretch.

Why will JB’s promise of higher taxes and no pro business reforms make Illinois economy stronger and reduce the record outmigration?

Might be a little early to start measuring the drapes OW

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:41 pm
The Republicans wanted to raise taxes on their Blue state enemies and they did . They will feel the fallout in some of these districts.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:51 pm
===Have you seen how much your IRA and 401k have gone up over the last few years ?===

My 401 averaged 7% annualized returns during Obama’s last 4 years. It is averaging 2% annualized return this year.

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:51 pm
As a suburban homeowner with a modest (read: below median housing cost for Dupage) home, my wife and I will end up paying more in Federal taxes this year than we did in prior years do to the limitation on the state and real estate tax exemption. It isn’t a lot more. We aren’t going going broke or anything, but it certainly isn’t a tax break. I think a lot of urban and suburban folks are in the same situation. I also haven’t been fooled by what appears to be a sort of larger take home paycheck. I did the math. The are checks seem a bit larger biweekly, but the refund will be substantially smaller than what we had normally been getting. I advise everybody to check to make sure they aren’t going to be in for a nasty surprise next spring.

A co-worker of mine who is in the Illinois 6th actually called the local Roskam office to complain about having to pay more in taxes shortly after the bill had passed. They were in a similar situation as me. The staffer on the phone essentially called them a liar for suggesting that they would pay more. Apparently Roskam’s people think they know individual constituent finances better than the individual constituents. I would have called to, but the lines have moved and thankfully I am not represented by him anymore. The denial of reality by that guy and his people is unbelievable. If anybody in Illinois deserved to be ‘Cantor’ed for being absent it and clueless about what is going on in the district he represents, it is Roskam.

Comment by benniefly2 Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:51 pm
=DOW flirting with 27,000 and business metrics that are outstanding and getting better.=

Bad news? The money that is being made is not being shared with the rank and file. CEO’s are keeping it for themselves and corporations are using it for stock buy backs.

The metrics are improving? Really? Des that include inflation? That is sucking the air out of peoples paychecks?

This is a one-sided economy.

=Oh thats right, you get a Illinois public pension and arnt invested in the markets….=

Well super genius, where do you think the pensions invest their money? That’s right. The stock market.

Maybe sit the next play out, today’s heat is getting to you.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:51 pm
LP. More important to the analysis is that Failure Bruce is at 27%. As for the import of the IIG report, you might have a point if the toilet story was actually new news, but I do believe Failure Bruce’s campaign has mentioned them at least a couple of times since 2017.

Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:56 pm
===Many people have no idea whether the tax bill is good or bad for their family until they file their taxes next year.===

I suppose that’s possible. But if it is, watch out for the real city/suburban backlash against Republicans in 2020

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 2:57 pm
===I never said Donald Trump was Ronald Reagan, he clearly isn’t even close.===

Like Rauner, Trump is not a Republican like Bush, Reagan, the giants. You’re right.

===It is strange for a Republican such as yourself to not admit the economy has clearly improved substantially in the past 20 months.===

At what cost? Ideology isn’t religion, but money is neither religion or ideology… it’s not the basis of a party, the cult of personality that is Trump is not washed clean by money

===This was before the Democratic inspector General accused JB of a “scheme to defraud Cook County”. Think that will turn off any voters to him?===

Rauber is at 24% approval… and terribly unlikable. We’ll see if this is worth 22 points of a lead Pritzker enjoys.

Unlike you, I can see things objectively, and have pounded the Pritzker Crew on this. I’m waiting for you to hold this Governor accountable for anything.

===Why will JB’s promise of higher taxes and no pro business reforms make Illinois economy stronger and reduce the record outmigration?===

He has to win first. That’s how elections work. Today, Pritzker leads by 22

===Might be a little early to start measuring the drapes OW===

1) I’m not part of anything Pritzker. They are more than happy to keep it that way.

2) The closest I’ll get to anything in a Pritzker Administration will be “here”… as long as Rich lets me hang out.

3) That Crew is pummeling Rauner, with his own words and thoughts, I’d be in the way measuring anything.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:00 pm
it would be interesting to see what part of the tax bill they don;t like or think is helpful

Comment by Todd Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:00 pm
=Pretending the tax reform package that encouraged investment in American jobs had nothing to do with it is a stretch.=

Pretending that the jobs trend was not set in place during the previous administration is a stretch.

Acting like there is a correlation with reducing taxes for the wealthiest Americans (that is not reform, it is part of a long trend) and “investment” in American jobs is a stretch.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:06 pm
So suburanites are upset with the Republican Congress for taking away a tax deduction yet the gubernatorial candidate that is promising to raise taxes is leading substantially among surbanites?

Comment by Eastside Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:35 pm
===So suburanites are upset with the Republican Congress for taking away a tax deduction yet the gubernatorial candidate that is promising to raise taxes is leading substantially among surbanites? ===

You’re looking at it wrong.

Dems have done a good job of portraying the GOP tax bill as shoveling money at the rich. Pritzker says only people like him and Rauner should pay higher income taxes.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:38 pm
== the gubernatorial candidate that is promising to raise taxes==

You should ask whether or not ILGOP has done a good job selling that that is Priztker’s position.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:41 pm
Oh I know. Just surprised people are that gullible. And, I know, I should not be.

Comment by Eastside Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 3:41 pm
“The staffer on the phone essentially called them a liar for suggesting that they would pay more.”

Your co-worker shouldn’t take it personally — many of Pete’s constituents were told-off when they called about the GOP tax scam.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:01 pm
Dance Band, if your return is 2% this year(or since Trump became prez), you have your $ in the wrong place.

Tell us again what the DOW was on election night and what it is today.

BTW, when companies are making money, they hire more people and invest in goods and services. Some folks here need a little primer on finance and econ.

Comment by Pick a Name Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:05 pm
===Some folks here need a little primer on finance and econ. ===

You need a primer on reality.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:07 pm
@ Pick a Name- maybe you can explain the math on inflation and income growth and how income growth for most of the population has been minimal and how real I flation like $3 per gallon has and increased food prices have wiped out the so called growth?

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:13 pm
BTW, when companies are making money, they hire more people and invest in goods and services. Some folks here need a little primer on finance and econ.

Or in this case, they do stock buybacks. We have not seen any meaningful real wage growth since the tax cut was enacted. You’d think that if companies were reinvesting all those tax savings in production, wages would rise.

Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:18 pm
=== it would be interesting to see what part of the tax bill they don;t like or think is helpful===

The loss of the SALT deductions are going to result in big tax increases for middle class suburban families.

Comment by Powdered Whig Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:29 pm
The progressive tax proposal in this state will be dead on arrival when people realize next April how much capping the SALT deduction is going to hurt them.

There will be no appetite for another tax increase on the same crowd.

It isn’t on people’s radar now, but it will be when everyone gets their tax bill next year.

Rock is going to meet hard place because JB’s entire economic plan is predicated on a progressive tax that will be an extremely hard sell to people who saw a big tax increase because of capping SALT.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 4:38 pm
–… the collar county suburbs (59 percent) said the president’s record would make them less likely to vote for Republicans for state office, –

Bad.

– Among Independents, about twice as many said Trump’s record would make them less likely to support GOP candidates for state offices (50 percent) than said it would make them more likely (23 percent).–

Very bad.

Can anyone show the chart to victory statewide if you’re getting clobbered in the suburbs and among Independents?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 5:10 pm
“Is it easier for you to buy things in the store than it was 4 years ago?”

No,Lucky,it isn’t.
Prices have risen and inflation is sneaking back up too.

Comment by btowntruth from forgottonia Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 7:34 pm
I can’t wait to vote against RoSCAM.

His celebration of the tax bill that only took money from Illinois citizens is a disqualifying event. Way to represent Illinois citizens Peter. Not sure if there are more trees or Casten signs in my town - and we have a lot of trees. Peter is toast…and it’s about time.

#RepealAndReplaceRoskam

Comment by DuPage Moderate Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 9:38 pm
–Many people have no idea whether the tax bill is good or bad for their family until they file their taxes next year.–

You’re ridiculous.

Any suburban homeowner who files a Schedule A got hosed on the SALT deduction getting whacked. The effect is a tax increase.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 10:17 pm
===Dems have done a good job of portraying the GOP tax bill as shoveling money at the rich===

With all due respect, Rich, it was an easy “sell,” because that’s exactly what it did.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 11:34 pm
Roskam has isolated himself from his constituency. His local Naperville office is staffed with people who are not knowledgeable on the tax bill when it was proposed.. much of his constituency will pay more tax because of the reduction of SLT and the reduction of medical expense. Always have voted for Republican in Congress. But because of Roskams unresponsiveness. Have to give my vote to Casten.

Comment by SB Thursday, Oct 4, 18 @ 7:37 am
==Tell us again what the DOW was==

If the DOW is your measure of success then you should have been just as giddy under Obama since thee DOW grew by a similar percentage at this point in Obama’s presidency and grew nearly 150% over the course of his presidency. I suspect, though, that you didn’t view the DOW in quite the same light back then.

Also, you are completely oblivious when it comes to Trump. Your narrow minded focus completely misses the point when it comes to Trump.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Oct 4, 18 @ 8:19 am