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Poll: Preckwinkle leads Mendoza in first round by 5, but Mendoza leads runoff by 6

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* ALG Research poll for Chicago Federation of Labor of 600 likely Chicago voters conducted Dec. 4 to 9…

Asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, Preckwinkle came out on top with 21 percent of the vote. Mendoza was second with 16 percent.

That was followed by: Bill Daley (9 percent); Willie Wilson (8 percent); Garry McCarthy (7 percent); Dorothy Brown and Paul Vallas (both at 6 percent); Amara Enyia (5 percent); and Gery Chico (3 percent). […]

Although Preckwinkle comes out on top in the crowded field, Mendoza beats the County Board president one-on-one with 45 percent to Preckwinkle’s 39 percent.

Preckwinkle crushed Daley by a 51-to-32 percent margin. Mendoza did the same with 56 percent to Daley’s 29 percent. Mendoza also creamed Chico by a 58-to-23 percent margin.

Much more at the link.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 4:51 pm

Comments

This is the ball game to get to the runoff…

===Preckwinkle came out on top with 21 percent of the vote. Mendoza was second with 16 percent.===

The two candidates, be they Preckwinkle, Mendoza, whomever, that get voted 19-23%… they will be in that runoff.

There are two, and only 2 that had, and have, my complete attention.

Preckwinkle and Mendoza.

That 19% number is going to be an important bench mark.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 4:59 pm
So 6 percent of voters in this poll favored Dorothy Brown. They must either be her employees or her family, because I do not see how any right minded person could even consider her.

Comment by Chicagonk Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:16 pm
It’s a little early for a poll to mean very much — but it still might be enough for Bill “Cold Feet” Daley to drop out.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:20 pm
===because I do not see how===

People aren’t dumb just because they don’t agree with your opinion.

Brown works the church ladies hard.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:25 pm
Yeah, this is not good news for Daley. He gets crushed in head-to-head matchups against Preckwinkle and Mendoza as well. I didn’t see how the poll measured name recognition of each candidate, but suspect he has less room than most to make a first impression in this campaign.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:30 pm
Preckwinkle vs Mendoza would be a heck of a match. It’s really early. People will drop out. Would anyone be shocked if either Preckwinkle or Mendoza hits the 50% number and escapes the runoff?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:38 pm
“Who doesn’t want a mayor that does the bare minimum?”

The upgrade would be a welcomed change.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:47 pm
=So 6 percent of voters in this poll favored Dorothy Brown.=

I dunno, the promise of a jeans day can be pretty compelling to some.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:50 pm
The threshold is to get on the ballot.

That’s it. Get on the ballot.

If the discussion is “beyond the threshold” as the threshold, that’s kinda/sorta the prime example of moving the goal posts.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 5:51 pm
**Would anyone be shocked if either Preckwinkle or Mendoza hits the 50% number and escapes the runoff?**

Yes. Everyone would be shocked.

Comment by SaulGoodman Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 6:09 pm
===CFL pays Rahm’s pollster to show precisely what they want. Mendoza admits that she barely has enough good signatures to make the ballot. Who doesn’t want a mayor that does the bare minimum?===

Do you actually think a full 1% of voters will even know she barely has enough signatures? Nevertheless the other 99%.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 6:12 pm
===Do you actually think a full 1% of voters will even know she barely has enough signatures? Nevertheless the other 99%.===

I don’t see it making for a very good campaign ad or debate talking point.

The reality is squeaking by with minimum number of signatures could be a sign of a poor campaign infrastructure. But in Mendoza’s case, she started collecting later than anyone. To me that indicates she has a good campaign infrastructure.

Comment by City Guy Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 6:56 pm
Preckwinkle’s “Mendoza barely cleared the bar” message isn’t meant for voters or CapFax commenters — it’s intended for potential campaign donors.

It’s to rattle Susanna’s and to reassure Toni’s that she’s down for a nasty slog.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 8:07 pm
ALG is too good and respected of a pollster to do a shoddy job. Also, the CFL didn’t endorse Mendoza.

Also, if the ALG was just phoning it in why not show Mendoza ahead in the first round too?

Comment by Bop Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 9:00 pm
They are both awful.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:07 pm
If that’s the poll I think it is, and I’m pretty sure it is, I was a respondent — and man, do the results need to be taken with a grain of salt. The guy who interviewed me couldn’t pronounce the names of most of the candidates. Like, not even “Bill Daley.” (He called him “Delay.”) Barely literate, barely articulate.

Comment by Catbus Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:40 pm
I’d be shocked if either hit 50%, but I wouldn’t be shocked if any of the list down through McCarthy pulled an upset and made the runoff depending on who drops out. With such a split field, winter primary (i.e., weather could be terrible), differing GOTV efforts and intensity of support could make the difference.

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 8:22 am
===…it’s intended for potential campaign donors.

It’s to rattle Susanna’s and to reassure Toni’s that she’s down for a nasty slog.===

You’re not wrong. That’s the audience and it’s intent.

For me, and not a reflection or in contrast to your on-point comment, it’s tiring, the “alternative facts” that disguise as a narrative, moving goal posts when barley getting on the ballot is embarrassing enough, Preckwinkle could make a tougher, harder case beyond the statement.

With respect as always, and your point on audience and intent is spot on.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 8:23 am