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Pritzker explains projections

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Illinois needs thousands more ventilators than the federal government plans to give them, said Gov. J.B. Pritzker during an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union show hosted Sunday morning by Jake Tapper.

Pritzker requested 4,000 ventilators from the federal government last Tuesday, and Vice President Mike Pence responded, saying Illinois only needed 1,400, according to the interview. On the show, Pritzker said Pence was looking at a model from the University of Washington that, while good, was not intended for resource allocation. He said Pence pulled from a central data point that didn’t account for worst-case scenarios, which actually indicated a need for “5- or 6- or 7,000 more” than what the federal government has given Illinois.

* We’ve discussed that projection before…

The study uses a range of outcomes with a 95 percent uncertainty (or confidence) interval (UI). This produces a lower- and upper-bound estimate. The result should appear between those two bounds in 95 out of 100 simulations.

The projection was last updated on April 1. Here’s what it now says about peak ventilator usage…

Whew.

* The latest UW update pushes Illinois’ peak day back to April 20th, from its previous April 17th.

Illinois is projected to experience 109 deaths per day on the 20th, compared to the previous projection of 91 on the 17th.

3,386 Illinois deaths are now projected, compared to 2,453 projected late last month.

The revised forecast projected 228 Illinois deaths by yesterday, April 4th (with a range of 211-253), and the actual number was 243.

It projected 40 deaths per day by yesterday (with a range of 33-51), and the actual number was 33.

The revised UW study also projects that a statewide ICU shortage could begin as early as tomorrow. But as of two days ago, 30 percent of ICU beds were still unoccupied. So, UW may want to update its numbers.

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Apr 5, 20 @ 12:45 pm

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