Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » A look at that University of Washington COVID-19 study and how Illinois fares
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
A look at that University of Washington COVID-19 study and how Illinois fares

Sunday, Mar 29, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is quite sobering. Let’s start with the press release

In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April. Deaths related to the current wave of COVID-19 in the US are likely to persist into July, even assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials.

The study uses a range of outcomes with a 95 percent uncertainty (or confidence) interval (UI). This produces a lower- and upper-bound estimate. The result should appear between those two bounds in 95 out of 100 simulations. This a very tricky thing to model, as they state in their methods section

Uncertainty in the model estimates is driven by two components: (1) uncertainty from fixed effect estimation and (2) uncertainty from random effects, with the latter dominant because of the high variation between locations.

That “variation between locations” also applies to individual states. So far, though, their numbers are holding up.

* Deaths per day. The study projects the United States will hit its peak of deaths per day on April 14th at 2,341, (or between 1,149 and 4,844 at 95% UI). The study projected 437 national deaths for March 28 (with a range between 380 and 508). The actual number on the 28th was 447, so that’s well within the expected range.

You can also look at the numbers by state. Illinois is expected to hit 91 deaths per day at its peak on April 17th, (or between 18 and 177 at 95% UI). The study projected 11 deaths per day for Illinois by March 28, (or between 6 and 17). Illinois reported 13 deaths yesterday.

According to the projection, Illinois will not return to yesterday’s death level until around May 11th. But it could come earlier (late April) considering the projected range, or later (beginning of June). You can clearly see the difficulty here in predicting when Illinois should lift its stay at home order.

* Cumulative deaths. By March 28, the study had forecast 1,979 cumulative deaths in the US, a number derived from a range of 1,842 to 2,137. The actual total was 2,038. That’s well within the expected range.

For Illinois, the study projected 47 cumulative deaths by March 28, (or between 34 and 63). The actual number was 47.

Point being, each day’s projected number won’t be exactly right, but it will likely be in the expected ballpark over time at a 95 percent UI. Its projection for New York of 722 deaths by March 28 was also pretty spot on. New York reported 728 deaths as of that day.

* In all, the study projects 81,114 total deaths in the United States by July 15th, (or between 38,242 and 162,106). Things start to level off around the first week of June or thereabouts.

Illinois can expect to experience 2,453 deaths by June 4, (or between 507 and 5,850). As noted above, Illinois is projected to start leveling off in earlyish May or so.

* Peak resource use. The study projects peak resources will be needed in the nation as a whole by April 14th. By that point, the nation will be short 49,292 hospital beds and 14,601 ICU beds and 18,767 ventilators will be needed (the researchers could not estimate existing ventilator capacity). But because this is such a large country and the trajectories are different for various regions, let’s focus on Illinois.

Illinois will hit its peak resource day on April 16. We should have 14,552 hospital beds available by that day. The study projects we’ll need 8,885. So, we’re good, right? Well, that number is derived from a range of 1,998 to 16,986, so don’t get too comfortable. Also - and this is very, very important - Illinois is a big and diverse state. Some hospitals may have excess capacity while several may not. It could be a real nightmare for some areas and/or individual hospitals.

Also, just because we have bed capacity doesn’t mean that hospitals have enough gloves, masks, etc. And, partly because of the national PPE and testing shortages and lack of a vaccine, hospital/ambulance/first responder staffing levels could crash as more and more workers contract the virus.

And then there’s the ICU bed issue. Illinois will have 1,131 ICU beds available on April 16, but it will need 1,335, or 204 more than existing capacity (the projected ICU bed range need is between 180 and 2,700). That obviously needs to be addressed, particularly when you factor in any regional disparity.

We’ll also need 721 ventilators by that time, but the expected range could push that number as high as 1,447.

Indiana is in much worse shape. They’ll need an additional 1,973 hospital beds, 876 ICU beds and 854 ventilators. Missouri’s is even worse. Michigan is about to get clobbered. By April 8th, that state is projected to need 10,563 additional hospital beds, 2,564 ICU beds and 1,785 ventilators. New York is a disaster. By April 6th it’s projected to need 35,301 more hospital beds than it had, 6,949 ICU beds and 4,141 ventilators.

* Now, on to some visuals. When you hear people say “flatten the curve,” it means we have to keep the following graph’s curving purple dotted line (hospital beds needed) beneath that straight solid purple line (existing hospital beds available). Same goes for needed and existing ICU beds with the green dotted and straight lines. As noted above, Illinois achieves the flattening goal for hospital beds, but not for ICU beds. A shortage of existing ICU beds will begin on April 7 and last what could be two very long weeks…

Keep in mind that the feds are becoming quite concerned about a spike in Chicago and Cook. As emphasized above, some hospitals will have excess capacity while some will not.

* Indiana will not sufficiently flatten the curve. The state goes above existing hospital bed capacity on April 8th and won’t have excess beds until April 21. Existing ICU capacity is breached on March 31 and that will last through April 24…

* New York went above existing capacity days ago and won’t have available hospital beds and ICU beds until April 22nd…

* Michigan appears to already be above existing ICU capacity and will be above existing hospital bed capacity on March 30. It won’t have an excess capacity of existing ICU and hospital beds until April 19…

* Missouri will be above existing hospital bed capacity from April 12-29 and above existing ICU capacity from April 2 through May 4…

According to the projection, Wisconsin doesn’t hit peak resource needs until May 22nd, so it has time to beef up its existing ICU beds, which are projected to exceed capacity from May 4 through June 4. Ohio, like Wisconsin and Illinois, should have enough hospital beds, but it will experience an ICU bed shortage based on existing capacity from April 9-19. Minnesota will have a shortage of existing ICU beds from April 11 through May 6.

Bottom line: We’re better off than some other states, but it’s still gonna be bad. Please, stay inside.

…Adding… Fauci believes the situation will be worse than the UW study indicates

The U.S. government’s foremost infection disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, says the U.S. will certainly have “millions of cases” of COVID-19 and more than 100,000 deaths.

As the U.S. tops the world in reported infections from the new coronavirus, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases predicts 100,000-200,000 deaths from the outbreak in the U.S.


No Comments

Be the first to comment.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Pritzker says state has settled labor dispute at migrant tent city
* *** UPDATED x4 - Coverage roundup - Reporters received report before governor - Report finds high levels of mercury in soil - Report released to reporters *** After stonewalling governor’s office, city finally shares pollution report on migrant tent city
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Afternoon roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Some campaign updates
* Citing 'delays' in Chicago's procurement process, Pritzker announces $2 million to feed asylum seekers
* Union says Pritzker office intervention at least temporarily prevented likely construction shutdown at migrant camp
* Today's quotable
* Not-for-profits at risk as state funding nears end
* Illinois Supreme Court again cites the plain language of a law to overturn lower court's ruling
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...



Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller