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* UPDATED x1 * Poll had Pritzker’s fave/unfave at 41-41 last month, warning for U of I

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A new poll shared with Playbook indicates Illinois residents have a mixed opinion about Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who has now spent a third of his term managing the coronavirus pandemic.

The survey, conducted by 1892 Polling, a firm that counted former Gov. Bruce Rauner as a client during his successful 2014 gubernatorial campaign, shows 40.6 percent of Illinois residents view Pritzker favorably, compared to 41.0 percent who don’t and 18 percent who so far have no opinion.

Most of the other questions examine education issues and culture wars. The survey of 800 residents was commissioned by the American Council on Trustees and Alumni, a conservative nonprofit group that advocates for trustees to have a greater role in decision-making on college campuses and pushes against what it sees as liberal ideas related to intolerance. Lynne Cheney, wife of the former Vice President Dick Cheney, previously headed the organization.

Interviews were done Feb. 17 through 21 by cell phones and landlines for the poll that has a ± 3.5 percent margin of error. The poll states 39 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 25 percent were Republican, and 27 percent Independent and many had mostly favorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement, police officers, teachers unions, and their local school boards.

But multiple questions in the survey address ACTA’s interest in culture wars issues, particularly around academia and race.

One question asks if public universities in Illinois are too liberal or conservative (35 percent of respondents said too liberal, 36 percent said fair, and 6 percent said too conservative).

And while 42 percent of those interviewed think Americans are “too politically correct,” 41 percent think Americans aren’t politically correct enough or are just right.

Other areas of the poll address “culturally responsive” education, which was passed by the Illinois General Assembly last month, and show a slant to the questioning. Republicans have criticized the effort as serving up liberal politics in the classroom and the poll reflects that by asking people whether teachers should “embrace progressive viewpoints” and prioritize “social justice advocacy” (rather than plainly describing what those mean). A statement about whether public universities should combat systemic racism by teaching students about white privilege is set as the sole counterpoint to a more neutral position about whether those schools should teach the nation’s founding principles as “the basis for reasoned debate and civil dialogue.”

Asked whether K-12 schools should institute a new curriculum that teaches that America is “founded on slavery” or demonstrates principles for a “free and democratic country” — nothing in between — 38 percent chose the new curriculum and 48 chose the old.

Another question on racism touched on an episode that recently came up at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. It asks if “Obstructing Jewish students from expressing support for the State of Israel is a form of anti-Semitism” (50 percent agree, 25 percent disagree, and 25 percent were unsure).

1892 is a pretty darned good firm, by the way, so the governor and the U of I should take note. Click here for the full topline results. I was hoping to get crosstabs by now, but they haven’t yet arrived and I got tired of waiting.

I think the last poll on Pritzker is from one I had done for subscribers in October which had him at 48-45 fave/unfave with likely voters, so something appears to have happened since then. That same poll, conducted by Change Research, had the graduated income tax proposal at 42-51 fave/unfave and had support for it at 47 “Yes” and 48 “No” with 4 percent undecided. It also had Biden over Trump by 17 points, had the Illinois Republican Party’s fave/unfave at 31-51 and Speaker Madigan’s at 8-70 (not a typo). I’ve been thinking about doing another one on the governor and others in the near future.

*** UPDATE *** Crosstabs are here.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 1:38 pm

Comments

In 2019, JB Pritzker was comparing himself to Rauner.

In 2020, JB Pritzker was comparing himself to Trump.

In 2021, Pritzker’s management skills are being compared to Biden. It’s not as favorable comparison.

Comment by Ferris Wheeler Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 1:49 pm
= in October … so something appears to have happened since then=

Inattention to IDES Fraud, slow start to vaccine distribution, LaSalle Illinois Veterans Home with 36 dead….

Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 1:55 pm
Madigan is no longer around to be blamed for everything. Not good for JB.

Comment by "A Horse is a Horse" Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 1:55 pm
So where are we as far as the odds of a Pritzker second term? JB minus 10?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 1:59 pm
No one is obstructing anyone from expressing support for Israel. Support for Palestinians, on the other hand, is among the most stigmatized and suppressed speech in the country.

Comment by Quibbler Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:01 pm
economy needs a downturn, Biden off year results bad, and a good moderate Republican candidate, 2 out of 3 of this list and JB could be in trouble.. today it is not looking good that the Repubs will not shoot themselves in the foot..

Comment by NotRich Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:02 pm
=Support for Palestinians, on the other hand, is among the most stigmatized and suppressed speech in the country=

Have you visited a college campus lately?

Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:06 pm
When they ask it that way, of course people oppose obstructing Jewish students from making their views on Israel known, and there is a wide spectrum among Jews on Israel’s mistreatment of Palestinians. The issue is whether criticism of Israel is considered antisemitic. The numbers would be quite different if that was the question.

Comment by Leading question Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:07 pm
=JB Pritzker was comparing himself…=

And if in 2022 JB is comparing himself to Bailey and/or Schrimpf it won’t be much of a comparison.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:09 pm
JB is winner by default

Comment by RINO Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:18 pm
While not good news for JB, he has a good chance of reelection given the announced competition. JB is also not yet in the same bumbling league as Quinn, who drove many across party lines looking for an effective alternative. He has time to recover, but needs to get his act together and hope for Bailey.

Comment by Simple Simon Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:22 pm
1) It can’t be that good if they’re hiding crosstabs

2) Whose vote are any of these biased question issues moving? And in the face of what counterprogram from the governor?

In case anyone doesn’t know, the election isn’t today.

Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:24 pm
==And if in 2022 JB is comparing himself to Bailey and/or Schrimpf it won’t be much of a comparison.==

Perhaps true. We shall see. But Bailey and Schrimpf and “anyone else nameless” were not in charge of the fiascos around fair tax, the currently confusing and dispiriting vaccine roll-out decisions, the catastrophic IDES administration, and the shocking DCFS failures which have cost lives and broken hearts. Anybody who thinks any one (if not several) of the above mentioned issues have not directly and personally affected large numbers of individual voters may be whistling past the graveyard. But out in Illinois JB is not highly thought of right now. Maybe he can turn it around.

Comment by Responsa Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:32 pm
So far Half of his term has been dealing with the virus not a third, he has only been in office a little over two years. I support him. I do not support everything about his administration but he had done a great job this last year

Comment by Jason Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:33 pm
JB will continue to blame Trump for everything straight up to Tuesday, November 8, 2022.

Comment by Joe Schmoe Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:40 pm
=== It’s not as favorable comparison.===

Against Schimpf or Bailey?

That will help.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:54 pm
Watch what happens to JB’s approval rating when the crime Bill,passed at 2 AM with virtually no debate or support from the States Attorneys in Illinois except for Kim Foxx, kicks in

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 2:55 pm
To the post,

What y’all are forgettin’… Rauner swamped Quinn with cash to define. Pritzker swamped a defeated and quitter in Rauner.

You don’t think at 41-41 and having a downstater with racist thinking and a 51st state mentality Bailey can keep up with Pritzker?

Wishing versus resources.

Right now? 41-41… after all the real losses…

Who is that somebody that can compete?

Schimpf can compete for what… 5 weeks?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:01 pm
== Have you visited a college campus lately? ==

The question is telling, because of course, college campuses are essentially the only place you’re likely to find pro-Palestine voices as part of the mainstream discourse. Certainly they’re not well-represented in government or in the popular media. But even at universities, there’s a long and well-documented trend of pro-Palestinian speech being suppressed. See for example: https://ccrjustice.org/the-palestine-exception

Comment by Quibbler Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:02 pm
The whole inclusion of the (slanted) Israel question is weird - no doubt JB’s support has dipped but I wonder about how some of these questions were particularly worded.

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:02 pm
Today is a good day for the governor, as the popular federal stimulus bill was enacted, and he is a strong supporter. The new law is a big deal for the entire state. Not one Republican voted for it.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:12 pm
Can’t beat somebody with nobody, and if it is Schimpf or Bailey it might as well be nobody.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:14 pm
===but I wonder about how some of these questions were particularly worded===

The wording is in the topline results, for crying out loud learn to read. Thank you very much. The amount of restraint it took not to write these words in all capital letters without exclamation points should win me some sort of prize.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:15 pm
The perceptions of the economy and public health, and therefore public confidence, will be significantly improved by election cycle ‘22.

Governors own when things get better as well.

Comment by walker Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:30 pm
=== Governors own when things get better as well.===

The lesson folks forget about in the “Rule of Governors Own”

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:34 pm
No doubt JB’s fav/unfav has fluctuated over the months. But count me skeptical of these numbers based on other public polling out there and the overall slant of this poll (yes I read the wording of the questions and I am still skeptical of these results.). But lordy the imaginative thinking that goes on on this blog sometimes is nutty. JB is not -10. He is absolutely the favorite for re-election. His Covid efforts have been widely popular. And he will have all the money he could ever need to run against what is looking to be a very lackluster group of GOP candidates.

Count me skeptical of the whistling past the graveyard in these comments over one set of numbers in one GOP poll in March of a non election year. But I’m excited for official start of the silly season of polls.

Comment by DuPage Dem Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:37 pm
Vulnerable becomes beatable only once you’re up against a better candidate. If such a candidate exists we certainly haven’t seen him or her yet.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:48 pm
It seems like the most popular governors are seen as moderates. Pritzker ain’t seen that way & maybe a bit too abrasive. I wonder if Stratton would have a better chance in 2022.

Comment by Blake Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:50 pm
- Blake -

Who exactly is going to beat Pritzker?

Bailey or Schimpf?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:51 pm
Will those be the only two candidates? I don’t know enough about Schmipf to answer, but there is still lots of time for additional candidates to announce & Rodney Davis has shown ability to win a swing district.

Comment by Blake Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 3:59 pm
=== Rodney Davis has shown ability to win a swing district.===

Narrator: Governor is a statewide election.

Need a name. Otherwise…

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:00 pm
I gave you a name of someone who may run statewide. It’s not unusual for someone to move from running in a district to winning statewide like Blagojevich, Mark Kirk, Durb

Comment by Blake Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:03 pm
Durbin & Duckworth all did.

Comment by Blake Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:04 pm
Even Blago in late October 2008 was actually doing slightly better than former Speaker Madigan’s 8% approval:

https://capitolfax.com/2008/10/30/about-that-other-poll/

Shortly after that Blago had his on-tape rant about only 13 percent of the people loved him despite doing what he considered all those “good things” for Illinois (in his mind).

Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:05 pm
Rodney Davis?

You honestly think Davis is not only going to run statewide, but take on Pritzker?

What do you base this on?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:05 pm
=== Need a name. Otherwise… ===

Mike Z.

Comment by Ferris Wheeler Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:14 pm
You seem to ignore the whole part about there being plenty of time for candidates to announce. Do you believe that Schmipf & Bailey will be the only candidates?
Also https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2021/02/16/wow-the-snow-schimpf-sets-the-theme-a-census-quandary-illinois-covid-deaths-surpass-20-000-491758

Comment by Blake Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:15 pm
=== Mike Z.===

Who’s gonna bankroll?

Thing is, Bailey’s racist thoughts make him a non starter, Schimpf? Wouldn’t Schimpf already have pinned down someone like Z?

===Do you believe that Schmipf & Bailey will be the only candidates?===

Haven’t heard any names that can financially compete.

=== Davis and LaHood are waiting to see how their districts could be adjusted in the upcoming redistricting process.===

The ideal plan is to get 17 folks to agree to draw out Mary Miller

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:21 pm
LaHood and Davis have since, twice, refused to impeach Donald Trump, and do not see racists, insurrectionists, or conspiracy theorists as people the Trunpkins should not have in the party.

Votes against Covid relief packages…

You think that’s gonna play statewide?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:24 pm
Rodney Davis would make the election tough for Pritzker.

Comment by Disappointed Female Suburban Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:25 pm
Really Pritzker has been pretty good. I feel that every day he tries to make things better. The vaccine roll out was slow, but now has caught up and exceeds the neighboring states I have been comparing it to. In other words, he just kept working to make it better.
And who exactly is out there to run against.

Comment by Banish Misfortune Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:27 pm
=== Rodney Davis would make the election tough for Pritzker.===

How so?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:29 pm
Where does Davis fall on, say, abortion?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:31 pm
=Do you believe that Schmipf & Bailey will be the only candidates?=

I believe that Jeanne Ives, Jim Oberweis, Erika Harold, and any other number of unelectable candidates could throw their hat in the ring.

There’s a reason that IGOP currently holds zero (0) statewide offices.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:34 pm
It may be time to start humming Little Plummer Boy.

Comment by Blue Dog Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:41 pm
===Plummer===

The smart play is to wait out Bost or Davis.

He’s young, where’s he going?

His last run statewide might have left scars too?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 4:43 pm
It’s early. So much can happen. Less than a year ago there was a governor of a large state who was so popular some people made him their hero and wanted to draft him as a presidential candidate. His name escapes me at the moment. So much can happen.

Comment by SSL Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 5:26 pm
=== === Mike Z.===

Who’s gonna bankroll? ===

How much was spent for and against the fair tax campaign, and how did that turn out?

Comment by Ferris Wheeler Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 5:54 pm
=== How much was spent for and against the fair tax campaign===

For the 618th time.

Defeating an amendment is not the same as defeating a candidate with another

You keep trying that, LOL

Oh. It was a wash in the end, roughly $50+ million, both sides.

Someone gonna spend $50+ million on… say Bailey?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 5:56 pm
We shouldn’t think about Bailey and Schimpf in the same way.

Bailey is an ideological candidate. He is on a crusade. The guy could raise only $30 and he would still be hanging in the race, get quoted every night and he’ll probably get 25% of the vote no matter what. I am basing that on Lindsey Graham’s assessment from 2016 that a quarter of the GOP primary voters are {banned word} crazy.

Schimpf is a strategic candidate. He is on the Kirk Dillard track. About 1/3 of union households in Illinois are Republican primary voters. If there is no pro-union candidate in the field in the GOP primary, those votes tend to gravitate to a populist like Bailey or Rauner. A GOP candidate who is pro-union or atleast not anti-union can usually bank on about 30% of the vote in a primary. I put Dillard, Topinka and Rutherford in this group.

Conventional wisdom is that this midterm will favor Republicans with Biden in the White House. I am not that pessimistic, especially after Sanders issued his full-throated support for the American Recovery Plan after it passed and Manchin voiced support for reforming the filibuster.

The last time we had a Illinois governor in the statehouse facing re-election who was the same party as a president in the whitehouse during a midterm redistricting election was…..never I think. We have a unique set of political circumstances right now and we don’t even have a set field yet.

It’s like placing a bet on the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 6:20 pm
== Rodney Davis would make the election tough for Pritzker.==

Yes, the decision on where to hold the re-election party would be tough for Gov. Pritzker.

Comment by low level Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 6:54 pm
“ The issue is whether criticism of Israel is considered antisemitic. The numbers would be quite different if that was the question.”

Louder for the enablers in the back.

Comment by A State Employee Guy Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 8:22 pm
Oswego Willy, I think Gary Rabine has the best chance of beating Pritzker. I’m no trying to discred Schimpf or Bailey, but Rabine poses the biggest threat I think.

https://capitolfax.com/2021/02/08/business-owner-trump-supporter-gary-rabine-says-he-will-run-for-governor/

Comment by Fivegreenleaves Thursday, Mar 11, 21 @ 8:29 pm
===I think Gary Rabine has the best chance of beating Pritzker.===

As a hard core Trumper, and around Trump family members, Pritzker would welcome Rabine, they could talk insurrection, conspiracy theories…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 6:02 am