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* From a Center Square story entitled “State commission offers uncertain forecast for Illinois’ economy”…
The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability provided an update on the 2023 forecast to the Illinois State Board of Education Wednesday and said it is increasing its fiscal year 2023 revenue outlook to just over $51 billion. That is only $259 million above fiscal 2022 final levels.
“Only.”
What a crock.
* Here’s what CGFA actually reported…
Through the first five months of the fiscal year, overall general funds receipts are up an amazing $1.945 billion. […]
Even when excluding the $620 million growth in one-time revenues from Federal ARPA reimbursements, the general funds base growth of $1.325 billion is just as impressive - especially considering that these FY 2023 receipts are being compared to the record-breaking levels of FY 2022.
Personal income tax receipts through November are $1.019 billion above last year’s pace on a gross basis, or $860 million on a net basis. Corporate income tax receipts have risen $380 million in total or $311 million net. While the performance of sales tax receipts have been boosted by inflated prices, it still has resulted in year-to-date tax revenue growth of $407 million or $235 million net.
CGFA is usually reticent to use glowing phrases like “amazing” and “impressive,” but there you go.
* Here’s what happened. CGFA revised this fiscal year’s revenue outlook upward by $4.9 billion in November. The “strong overall performance” of financial numbers released since that decision, CGFA reported, “further solidify the Commission’s confidence in raising the FY 2023 general funds revenue estimate.”
The commission’s revised forecast was about $1.2 billion higher than the governor’s budget office revision. The governor used that GOMB forecast to justify paying off the state’s unemployment insurance trust fund debt, among other things.
* And here’s where the Center Square misinformation is important. The current FY23 state budget as originally drafted relied on total revenue projections of $46.43 billion, which was back then about $4.6 billion below FY22’s record-breaking $51.07 billion in revenues. So, if CGFA is right, then the recently revised forecast would result in total revenues almost $300 million higher than last year’s, or almost $4.9 billion higher than originally expected.
Not to mention the CGFA report advised that another upward revenue revision is possible next March, “if any semblance of the current pace of revenue growth continues.” Personal income tax receipts are currently running “well ahead” of last fiscal year’s pace, CGFA notes, but CGFA’s newly revised estimates still predict the revenue stream will decline by nearly $700 million this fiscal year.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 2:52 pm
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Another example of the lengths to which Bessler and the Center Square will go when the facts do not align with their narrative. The facts are a bit difficult to square with the narrative that businesses and individuals are leaving Illinois in droves and the state is in a “death spiral.”
Comment by Facts Matter Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:00 pm
Some people just can’t handle good news. Sheesh.
Comment by JoanP Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:03 pm
Isn’t there a saying something to the effect that Center Square is actually right aligned holes.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:05 pm
I can’t wait to see how Wirepoints summarizes that Center Square article
Actually, I can
Comment by Socially DIstant watcher Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:10 pm
Fox News has been doing this for years, to a much larger audience. It’s shameless.
Thank you Rich for combatting this with the truth.
Comment by Henry Francis Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:15 pm
Record tax receipts are impressive to those that want to grow the size and scope of state government.
For those Illinois residents and small businesses struggling to pay those higher taxes with the reality of a 40 year high in inflation it is depressing.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:17 pm
===it is depressing. ===
You must run in some very dark circles.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:21 pm
Ah yes, The Center Square, formerly “The Conservative Watchdog Network” showing once again their famous ability to report the news impartially. The Center Square was often where public hangings would take place, and I believe that they are keeping up the proud tradition by publicly executing the truth.
/s
Comment by Commissar Gritty Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:23 pm
=For those Illinois residents and small businesses struggling to pay those higher taxes=
Those record tax receipts are coming from record revenue and profits from businesses.
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:26 pm
This is the very definition of “spelunking for misery.”
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:29 pm
The grift can’t exist without the angst.
It’s only available this grifting if the negative can exist too
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:33 pm
“For those Illinois residents and small businesses struggling to pay those higher taxes with the reality of a 40 year high in inflation it is depressing.”
All this fiscal good news under a successful Democratic governor and all-Democratic legislature compared to the misery of the Rauner days really drives you to distraction. And the fact that inflation is a global phenomenon that is waning here must send you over the edge. Just wondering…are you auditioning for a spot as a FoxNews writer?
Comment by New Day Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:41 pm
Illinois has a GDP of a trillion dollars.
Just saying
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 3:55 pm
One place revenue growth could come from is that farm incomes are way up this year due to good prices and high yields. That will show up when farmers and owners file their taxes. Not sure if it’s that good across the state, but my little piece In Livingston County was up 50% from last year.
Comment by Excessively Rabid Friday, Dec 16, 22 @ 4:19 pm