Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Weekend way-back blogging
Next Post: Poll follow-up
Posted in:
Blogging will be very light this week, as I’m taking a bit of time off. But here’s your question:
Read this column and this one, too and tell me what chance Judy Baar Topinka has of beating Rod Blagojevich.
UPDATE: The results for Topinka’s probable primary contenders are miserable, by the way. I saw them, but they were redacted out of the final copy I was given. Part of the usual trade-off for getting a story.
UPDATE 2: The Southtown inadvertently left my column off the website on Sunday. It’s been moved off the editorial page because of a new deadline system, so that may have had something to do with it. The column is up now, so the above link is changed.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 2:26 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Weekend way-back blogging
Next Post: Poll follow-up
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
She’s got a good chance if she can get passed the primary. That’s the key.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 3:21 pm
Rich, was that opening line an homage to the late Steve Neal?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 3:47 pm
Yep.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 3:49 pm
Oh the agony! Can you imagine how many senseless p.r. stunts Illinoisans will be subjected to if this poll has any validty.
Her chances are probably zero, unless the hard right wing nuts are caught in a 12 month traffic outside the federal courthouse in Tampa where the next tragic act in what will be known as Congress’dumbest moment is played out.
Comment by reddbyrd Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 3:51 pm
She’s under federal investigation.
Can’t win a primary or general under those circumstances.
Also too supportive of George Ryan.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:00 pm
Run Judy Run! At the very least we’ll get some good quotes out of it…
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:02 pm
Notice the poll doesn’t show her winning a primary.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:05 pm
The most PR savvy of the statewide field, Treasurer Topinka has taken a normally low-profile office and ramped up her name ID to substantial levels. She’s a pro-choice Republican with crossover appeal. She’s got some of that white Etnik backing.
She’s spent the last 8 years criss-crossing the state, handing out money and treasured items to voters. She ran well against a formidable candidate, Tom Dart, in 2002.
No one in his or her right mind can count her out.
Comment by Peter Frampton Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:29 pm
The Cubs and the White Sox will play in the world series before Topinka wins the GOP nomination…
But maybe you were talking about her switching parties and running as a Democrat and beating Blago. That’s a little more plausible.
Comment by Ralph Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:31 pm
Rich–are these republican voters or does the sample compose all Illinois voters? If it is just republicans, she is dead. If it is both, we should talk. If it is both, did they do a split sample for the the republican primary head-to-head? Let me know so we can analysis with some facts.
Comment by former Madigan Staffer Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:46 pm
DJW’s Rush-effect notwithstanding, the Chicago voters are not going to vote for a Republican (but a low turnout could hurt Blago).
The poll shows Blago strong in the Cook County suburbs.
The Democrats are making in-roads in the collar counties (Judy could give Blago some trouble with the soccer mom vote, though).
The downstate farmers, laborers, hunters, while not necessarily pleased with Blago, are not going to vote for a woman.
Unless there is some super-indictable blow-up related to money-slushing, I think Blago will be okay.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 4:57 pm
Heard she was only a couple of points ahead of Oberweis in the primary. Not sure about others.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 5:40 pm
Oberweiss isn’t even close. He has better name ID than most of the rest of her likely oppos, but it’s still low and he’s far back.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 5:57 pm
Something’s fishy. Two reports on the poll and neither says she is running far ahead in the primary. That is something she would want out. My conclusion is that something doesn’t look decisive. Also, wonder whether the trial heat with Rod is before or after the push questions.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 6:13 pm
Take off your tinfoil hat, please.
The head to head numbers with blagojevich was before the push. After the push, she leads, but I didn’t write about that because she only pushed negative on Blagojevich, and pushed a lot of positives on herself. So, the result was worthless to me.
And, again, I’ve seen the primary numbers. The right wing is dreaming if they think they can beat her. So is everybody else in the primary, for that matter.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 6:36 pm
So what are the numbers? All you are doing is berating people. It’s a big hole in this story. You are dreaming if you think a liberal Republican under federal investigation is a lock in the primary.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 7:05 pm
If only the Tribune would provide its readers with pertinent “governmental” information instead of burying any criticism of Blagojevich on its Editorial page. The average reader would only see the editorial comments if that page were to flap open while they were lining their bird cage. Put it on the front page where it belongs!
I am referring to Sunday’s edition with the big bold headline that Chicago cooked the books on the Blue Bag Recycling program. Why go after this program and not the Gov’s dirty laundry that is coming to light? Are they attacking the Mayor through a failed program because he doesn’t like chunks of concrete falling on people at Wrigley Field and has threatened to close it?
My God. It looks as if we may have a BIG nasty ethical issue on our hands with Blago’s fund raising adventure’s. Among other things.
Why is the Tribune so easy on the Gov? They always have been. Why, why, why?
Comment by Governor Flatus Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 7:12 pm
Can she get passed the primary? Yes. Can the conservatives undermine her candidacy? Yes. Can she make up the conservative vote by going after moderate and downstate voters? Maybe.
This is still Blago’s race to lose,but several things strike me. First of all, everyone has known this announcement has been coming for awhile. Blago’s camp must be doing polling on all of the potential opponents. What’s their message when Topinka announces? They don’t have one. Not a good sign.
Second, Blago, Inc. seems to have pinned their hopes on his ability to outraise cash. As Lynn Sweet pointed out on Chicago Tonight and I’ve been saying for weeks, if local and national Republicans can agree on a candidate, they’ll match Blago dollar for dollar.
So, if Blago can’t just out-muscle, he’s got to come up with a winning message. If he runs ads talking about how he reformed ethics, she runs ads about Blago scandals. He runs ads talking about expanding family care, she runs ads talking about how the number of uninsured has grown under Rod. He runs ads talking about how he’s increased school funding, she runs ads with prominent education leaders talking about how he’s failed to reform school funding. He says he kept his promise not to raise taxes, she reminds voters that he supported hundreds of millions of tax increases that drove jobs out of Illinois.
All of things are bad.
And to those who think Topinka’s a non-starter because she’s “part of the old George Ryan machine,” wake up. She was re-elected when people were supposedly throwing Ryan out. If his anchor wasn’t attached to her then, it isn’t now. Blago’s polling must have told him this or he would have uttered some quotable line like “Of course she doesn’t approve of the job I’m doing. She’s the last remnants of the old George Ryan machine.”
Bottom Line: Blago’s job approval is under 50%, and as poorly as he does against Topinka, he loses 40% v. 47% against an unknown Republican (Chicago Tonight). People are looking for a reason to vote against the guy, and that is deep do-do.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 7:52 pm
By the way Rich, thanks for providing a forum for this debate.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 7:55 pm
Rich,
If she runs, does that mean you’ll go back to Fridays with Judy?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 7:58 pm
Rich–again–is the sample republican primary voters or all Illinois voters? It makes a huge differnce. If she has head-to-heads against others in the republican primary trial heat and polled all voters, the poll is worthless. If she polled only republican voters and she is trailing Blago, she is dead meat. We need the answer before we can make an informed analysis.
Comment by former Madigan Staffer Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 8:22 pm
They separated out GOP voters for the primary questions. What, do you think I don’t know how to read a friggin’ poll? Again, take off your tinfoil hats.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 8:30 pm
OK, it’s really annoying when people complain about the media and don’t pay attention to what they’re talking about. Has the Tribune been easy on Blagojevich in its news pages? Please. Consider its recent stories:
– Planned Illinois coal plant could cast haze over refuge (Upshot: Blagojevich plan would hurt the environment)
– Democrat tiffs don’t halt city’s cash flow (Upshot: Blagojevich has nasty spats with Daley and other prominent Dems)
– Revamp of toll oases lagging (Upshot: Big Blago contributor-contractor takes its time with tollway improvements and there’s nothing we can do about it)
– State aims to stem human trafficking (pro-Blago piece)
Not to mention the completely sarcastic way they handled the House video game bill vote (it’s OK to kill aliens, not people), the fact that they embarassed Blago and DNR into rehiring two disabled people, the bungling over the Rezko-O’Hare connection, the stories about Blago’s ineffectiveness on gun control and the reports about the guv’s goofy I-Save Rx tanking (and a quarter of its shipments getting seized).
I’m not always a big fan of the Trib, but give me a break. It’s the TV stations that’ve been giving Blago a pass. If you want your anti-Blago scandal fodder, you can find plenty in the news pages of the Tribune.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 8:36 pm
Topinka is in trouble. First, her statewide name ID means nothing. Lets not forget that people were pretty excited about dan hynes when he ran for senate because of his statewide ID. But it was the unknown senator from chicago who won the primary. She will need to get around the state at the same pace as Blagojevich and I dont think she can. With all due respect to the Treasurer, she has health issues that are compounded by the fact that she smokes. These facts will make a fast pace, running around the state campaign very difficult. Second, she looks foolish with the bright red hair and all of the makeup. The appearance, coupled with the health issues and the smoking makes her the richard nixon to Blagojevich’s Jack Kennedy. He will make her look tired and unhealthy — not qualities people look for in a leader.
Furthermore, she will have at least one, posasibly two or three very wealthy, egotistical opponents who wont bow out because they believe that the voters want them to fight to the end and not roll over so the party can annoint their favorite. They will unload the money gun on her and go very negative. If she manages to survive the primary, she will be in debt big time. Then Blago unloads on her like edgar did to netsch. Game over, and thats assuming that she wins the primary.
Blago shouldnt worry about this poll. When the time comes for the campaign to once again ramp up, he will bury his opponent — man or woman.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 9:49 pm
By the way, the questions in the poll were horrible. I had to read the question several times before i understood exactly what was being asked. Its obvious that this flawed poll was manipulated to give JBT credibility before she gets in hte race. She got her bump. She was all over the TV today talking about what a failure blago is. The press eats this up — they love the thought of a nasty fight.
She has been sniping from the sidelines for some time now. I cant wait to see how she handles the ruthless media once they start looking very closely at her record. She has never felt heat the way she will if she becomes a candidate. I promise that somebody will make a connection between contracts out of her office and campaign contributions she received. People who give do business with the state — its that simple. Its not new and they will make the connectioins in her past. Her belief that signing this oath with hynes to refuse contributions from people doing business with the state will look so hypocritical when people realize thats exactly what was going on in her office before the oath. It doesnt matter whether or not the contracts were let above board. Once the contributor gets the contract, there will be the “perception” that a contributor was rewarded. Wait till she tries to defend honest activity that probably served the taxpayers well against a “perception.” there is a lot out there on her — everything will be fair game once she becomes a candidate. The feeding frenzy will be dizzying.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 10:04 pm
Is that you Tusk? Topinka is going to lose because she smokes and has red hair? Gimme a break. Jesse’s got cue balls for knees and he’s 68 years old, are you handicapping him? Judy doesn’t need to get around the state when Rod’s being booed at SIU-C basketball games. She’s really only got to campaign about 15 counties.
As I said before, Rod is the one who’s in trouble, not Judy. His P.R. machine has been cranking for over two years non-stop and his job approval is below 50%. The way the budget is headed this year, it’s not getting any better. He needs to adopt a new re-elect strategy quickly or he’s in deep do-do.
My first advice, if anybody’s listening, is to make peace within his own party. If anybody is fighting a war on two fronts, it’s the Governor.
“Hello, Mr. Mayor? Yeah its Rod. Listen…let’s bury the hatchet. We got O’Hare done, we can get these gun bills passed. What can I do to help?”
“Dan, yeah it’s Rod. Dan I really admire what you’re doing on stem cell research. I’d like to help you out if I can.”
“Mr. President, Mr. Speaker, it’s been a learning process for me. I don’t think any of us wants a repeat of last summer. I’d like the three of us to hammer out a budget together that we can all walk away from feeling like winners, and I’m committed to working with you and the other members of the General Assembly. Oh, yeah, off the record, starting my first term in Springfield with a press release about how I’m going running with Tom Cross? One of the worst pieces of advice I took. I just fired that guy.”
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 05 @ 10:22 pm
Wow, a great race! Accordian Lady vs. Elvis……All kidding aside, Judy could win the nomination if (1) she’s not under indictment and (2) she splits two or more dull white guys in the Rep primary (forgive my redundacies). Having said that, she would be hobbled in the general unless Rod is under indictment. If they are BOTH under indictment, it would still be Rod’s. So, I doubt she could win the general barring a Dem collapse.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 9:34 am
With all due respect to the previous poster, have you read the poll? Judy’s not hobbled, she’s right in it.
I know popular wisdom says this is a blue state, Rod’s better looking and a great campaigner, Rod has more money. Here’s my response:
A poll of the Blue state shows that 26% of people who call themselves Dems don’t think Rod deserves another term.
Rod’s prettiness and campaign vigor have already worn thin on the public. Not only are they ineffective, they’ve become liabilities. My guess is that phrases are going to be popping up in focus groups like “untrustworthy” and “car salesman”. We’re going to see atleast one ad that makes reference to the fact that while the number of sex offenders/meth labs in Illinois was on the rise, Gov. Blagojevich had a state policeman assigned to carry his comb.
If Speaker Hassert and Karl Rove get behind her, Judy will have the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and she will match Rod dollar for dollar.
If Rod is pinning his hopes on an indictment of the Treasurer, wake up. They had the goods on Ryan, but the tradition of the U.S. Attorney’s office is to not file charges in interference of an election, a tradition they aren’t likely to break. The worst that anyone will be able to say most likely is that her office is currently under investigation, definitely the pot calling the kettle black.
Does anyone disagree?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 10:56 am
Governor Blagojevich’s team likely has to move away from their successful 2002 theme of “25 years of Republican corruption and waste and mismanagement has got to change” for the 2006 election. So far, that’s still a staple of the reaction to GOP challengers. But, to be fair, we’re just about as close to the 2002 general election as the 2006 general election, and besides, didn’t we all say we want Blagojevich to govern and not just endlessly campaign? So maybe it’s not such a bad thing if the governor’s political message is stale. Maybe that’s a sign that he hasn’t been spending that much time on the 2006 message and instead working on governing. . . .
Comment by Dan Johnson-Weinberger Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 12:16 pm
The general impression I get is that they’re just becoming aware of the damage they’ve done to themselves, but are still supremely confident that their “i didn’t raise your taxes” campaign will work.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 12:27 pm
Did Rod McCullogh do the poll.
Topinka barely won her elections to weak candidates while she had Dem support.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 22, 05 @ 1:19 pm