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Yesterday’s question of the day devolved into a raging debate over Joe Birkett. Today’s question: Do you think a primary candidate will emerge against Governor Blagojevich? If so, who? (Paul Vallas, by the way, appears to be disqualified from contention because of residency requirements.)
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 9:03 am
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The Governor gets no primary opponent. It’s too damaging to the party as a whole and even though Chairman Madigan and His Excellancy have never, don’t and will never see eye-to-eye, it isn’t worth the intra-party blood letting that would take place. He may be a complete fool, but he is the Democrats’ fool.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 9:12 am
Lisa Madigan isn’t going to challenge him?
Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 9:22 am
Speaker Madigan already has thrown his endorsement toward the Governor’s re-election. After this news, I do not believe there will be a primary opponent from within the party.
Comment by Bo Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 9:28 am
The Attorney General told the media some time ago that she planned to be a candidate for reelection. Which is why BrickheadJoe is talking about Gov. he does not want to get thumped again.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 10:47 am
O’Malley will succeed if he lets go of the old and takes in the new.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 10:56 am
I suspect that at least two big-time Dems (L. Madigan and Hynes) have seriously weighed the possibility of a primary challenge against Blagojevich. However, $20 million and the high risk of being blamed for the loss of the Governor’s mansion are serious disincentives to such a challenge. I’d agree. I’d hate to see either L Madigan or Hynes lose their shot at being Governor because they decided to challenge Blagojevich.
As of today, I’m with Anonymous #1 that there will be no primary challenger; however, if the budget goes into the crapper this session, all bets are off.
This situation creates a dilemna for disaffected Dems like myself. Blagojevich is a disapointment for Dems (in terms of policy, accessibility, and even patronage). The question is whether we’re better off with G-Rod for 4 more years or with a Republican. Let’s face it, the core base of the Democratic Party in Illinois was better off under George Ryan. I know a lot of Dems are waiting to see who the Republicans will nominate; but I know very few Dems who will enthusiastically support Blagojevich.
It’s too bad Pat Quinn has suddenly decided to be an adult. It would have been fun to see him challenge his own “boss.”
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 11:21 am
More than one person has encouraged Karen Yarbrough (D-Maywood) to run against Blagojevich.
She’s talented enough to do the job and she’s an appealing campaigner.
She’d run as suburban business owner and of course a Black woman. She’d shoot for 51% of the female vote, 51% of the suburban vote and 70% of the Black vote. If she hits two out of these three wickets she’d beat Blagojevich.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 11:24 am
I think he will be challenged. Will the unions (especially the teachers) support him? It shouldn’t be too difficult to cobble together a coalition of people whose interests will be threatened if he gets re-elected. All you have to do is support the things he isn’t all rah-rah about:
1) More casinos
2) Teachers union & public school funding
3) Ohare expansion
4) State employees
Lots of money to be made from these groups.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 12:18 pm
Why not Eddie Vrdolyak?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 12:36 pm
The only way I could see a Democrat stepping up to challenge The Rod is if Mike Madigan orders someone to make the challenge.
An earlier post stated Madigan already has publically announced his support of The Rod’s re-election efffort. But many of us know Madigan frequently says one thing publically and does something completely different behind the scenes. When Madigan says he supports The Rod Part II, why should I believe him?
Why would Madigan tell one of his followers to challenge The Rod? Because he can. Madigan might do it just to force The Rod to use up some of that campaign cash or just to dirty him up. Maybe Madigan would hoist up a challenger just to ruin The Rod’s day.
It probably won’t happen, but I won’t be surprised (or disappointed) if it does.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 12:39 pm
It would have to be someone put up by Madigan. I just can’t think of any Democrat who would be willing to take on the governor without Madigan’s support.
Of course, Madigan wouldn’t support anyone he couldn’t keep on a leash.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 2:06 pm
I am fascinated that no one has to date mentioned the long standing rumor regarding a primary challenge from Cook County States Attorney Dick Devine. That particular rumor has circulated along with the Vallas speculation since last summer. The lastest Hynes rumor has him being recruited to the Cook County Board President’s race in a effort to force out Stroger. All concepts but interesting ones at that.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 2:55 pm
How about Dick Mell for Governor???
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 3:48 pm
That would be SWEET!!!!!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 3:52 pm
That would be SWEET!!!!!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 3:53 pm
Assuming there’s nothing indictable in the future, the Dems are set statewide and will probably sweep. The real brawl is going to be for state and congressional seats. If the Bush Believe-Obey-Fight mystique fades, the Dems might pick up 1 or 2 congressional seats, with the 6th (Hyde) being the likeliest. Conversely, the Dems stand to lose seats in the state legislature. The demographic trend that is making the Chicago suburbs more moderate are also making the rural areas more conservative. This was epitomized by Pat Welch and Ricca Sloane losing in 2004. So if I were Mike Madigan and Emil Jones, I would worry less about challenging Rod and more about making sure the word Minority is not in their 2007 title.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 5:27 pm
maybe Jack Franks is pondering a run?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 6:11 pm
I don’t see a primary challange to Blago. Who are the unions/teachers/state employees going to back? The candidate who says “I’m raising taxes!” That is a sure loser in the General Election. In the Fall election are they going to back the Republican (I think all the potential R’s have said this) that supports cutting taxes and cutting more government spending? The support for Blago will be tepid in the General Election, but the alternative for the Teachers, Unions, State Employees is a candidate who wants more cuts and even smaller government. (Has anyone pointed this out to the Sangamon County Repubs yet?)
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 9:37 pm
Alderman Flores (D-1 Chicago) is eyeing a run for Secretary of State. He thinks that Jesse White is senile.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 9:58 pm
OK enough silliness. Yarbrough? Please. Not even in the top 20 of reps qualified to run statewide. Wouldn’t even get the full support of her own caucus. Franks? Next subject please. Flores? Absolutely not interested in running for SOS or any other statewide office. Hynes? Nope, may not even run for re-election. Madigan? Not this cycle. Anybody? Only likely shot would be a wealthy non-office holder. And that’s not likely at all.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 10:08 pm
Qualified doesn’t necessarily win.
Serious students of Illinois politics could come up with 20 Democrats more qualified than Blago to be governor in 2002, but Blagojevich got elected.
And who can’t come up with 20 Republicans more qualified to be POTUS in 2000 than Bush?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 10:26 pm
Yarbrough isn’t running for guv, but she is one of the brightest members of the Black Caucus in the House. I think she has a future.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 10:52 pm
Enough silly speculation. G-Rod goes unchallenged in the primary. The public employee unions hold their noses and back him in the general or at worst stay neutral.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 10:53 pm
Play out a Yarbrough candidacy.
What are the odds of her getting at least 50% of the suburban vote? (20-50%?)
What are the odds she can get 50% of the female vote? (30-60%?)
What are the odds she can get 70% of the Black vote? (40-70%)
If achieving two of these three categories is enough for a win and these estimate odds are right, Yarbrough’s got 21.2% chance of beating Blagojevich, on the low end.
Whether you think Yarbrough is everything you’d want in your ideal candidate or not she does have three natural constituencies where she can get votes that other potential challengers, like Hynes and Devine, don’t have.
Lots of people want Blagojevich challenged. The funders have to get with a candidate that has a shot.
Do Democrats want Blagojevich defeated?
Who has a better shot against Blagojevich in the primary than Yarbrough?
Can you name twenty Democrats that have a better shot at beating Blagojevich in the Dem Primary? Five? Two?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 11:29 pm
heh heh…Blago could switch parties and run as a Reagan Republican if he had a challenger. I don’t think it would happen, but it’s not too much of a stretch. He has shown a chameleon-like ability to be who he wants to be at any given time.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 05 @ 11:41 pm
I talked to Rep. Yarbrough yesterday. Believe it or not, she says she has been approached about running for governor, but is committed to seeking another term in the House.
As for Franks… Well, you’ll have to subscribe to the fax for that info.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 12:14 am
Could Glenn Poshard beat Blagojevich?
Lauren Beth Gash
Dorothy Brown
Is Corrinne Wood’s cancer still in remission? She made noises about wanting back in the game in 2004, right? And the GOP has pretty much said she’s not welcome to play for Team Republican. What keeps her from cutting a deal with Madigan and taking Blagojevich one-on-one in the primary?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 12:16 am
Yarbrough, are you guys (or ladies) on crack?! Who approached her, the checkout person at the Maywood 7-11? Has anybody ever seen her take the lead on ANY significant issue? (that doesn’t impact her insurance business) Is she known for anything? I think somebody threw it out there as a joke (I hope that it was a joke) Who’s the next suggestion, a Soto/Dunkin ticket?
I think the reality is that 06 will be relatively mundane on the D side. What will be more interesting is 2010, both sides have some real stars ready (and by that time) raring to go.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 12:20 am
This post has been removed by the author.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 12:24 am
While the Mell thing is funny, Fritchy, his former rep, and the Gov;s replacement in the House, would actually be a great match up. He’d never do it, but I bet Mell would endorse him
Oh, the drama and amusement of it all. I agree with the Yarbrough evaluation, sounds like a self-promotion deal.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 12:32 am
Is the goal just to beat Rod in the primary a la Mike Howlett or is it to actually hold on to the guv’s mansion? How’s a no-name state legislator gonna stack up against proven fundraisers on the GOP side? I know we have a charisma deficit on both sides here, but the Dems would presumably want to hold on to the gov’s mansion, I assume.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 1:28 am
All these Dems who don’t like Rod getting so pumped over these theoretical challengers remind me a little of Ralph Nader fans in 2000… They don’t realize how good they’ve got it.
Which do you want? Four more years of saying “Man, I wish the Guv would do X differently,” or four years of vetoes and loss of patronage rights?
Rod isn’t perfect. Far from it. But as we stand here tonight, a Democratic administration is a near certainty until at least 2010. A Primary challenge is just about the only thing short of indictment that could change that. Don’t screw it up, Dems.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 1:39 am
Yeah, Ken Dunkin for Governor. He’s shallow and vain. He doubled crossed and lied to Mike Madigan and Dan Hynes. He hasn’t supported a single substantial initiative, but goes for easy sound bites. He flies to Hollywood on ego trips. Oh wait, we already have Blagojevich. Never mind.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 7:20 am
My vote is for Mr. Morals himself.
Rep. John Bradley of Marion. One Legislative election under his belt and he thinks he’s “God”
Comment by Captn. Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 8:00 am
David Orr would be a credible challenge to Blagojevich too.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 8:52 am
Which do you want? Four more years of saying “Man, I wish the Guv would do X differently,” or four years of vetoes and loss of patronage rights? That’s the question I keep wondering about. Sure, a conservative, right-wing ideologue is worse than Blagojevich (from my point of view). But I’m not so certain that Blagojevich is better than a moderate Republican.
I generally agree with the idea of holding your nose and voting for Blagojevich. But then he or his staff do something that is just so stupid, or so offensive, that I wonder why I should even bother.
After all, Illinois had a line of Republican Governors since 1976, and we still have a pretty decent record. It’s not as if the Blagojevich admnistration has fundamentally changed the direction of the state. So, a GOP moderate? Might not be so bad.
Isn’t it sad that someone who has voted a straight Democratic party ticket since 1988 has to ask that question. (Full disclosure: I did not have a moral dilemna in 1998 with Poshard since I was living in a different state that year.)
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 8:53 am
Carl,
Poshard is slinging deals with Blago, so likely won’t run for governor again.
There has been some speculation (even by Rich, I think?) that Blago’s people might be encouraging Poshard to run in the primary for Lieutenant Governor. The thought being, if he won, that might help Blago with the southern vote in the general election.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 9:06 am
I’m going to create a couple Condorcet polls on the governors race.
I’ve created a thread to discuss who should be included in the polls. Please visit Blogging Blagojevich’s Blunders and nominate candidates (or argue for candidates not to be included).
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 9:36 am
So I read Capitol Fax today about Franks - a couple of issues though. Mell may provoke Franks just to mess with Rod, but can’t/won’t give any significant support. Two, the guy that has the chits to call in citywide (and beyond) right now is, and I’m not sure how I feel about this, Fritchey. While his ambition is a little too apparent, he is making a lot of the right moves. But running against Rod? He’d never do it.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 11:05 am
Franks may be a bit egotistical but at least he’s intelligent and he works for the people. He used to sit on the House floor calling constituents in his area introducing himself and asking if there were any concerns that they had. Politics or not, GREAT IDEA!
Sidenote: I’ve often wondered if the Dem Party knew what an idiot Rod was when they decided he should be a candidate. I asked someone that once and they said, “Sure we did, but we thought he’d surround himself with better people.”
Comment by KEL Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 11:13 am
Dick Devine? The Cook Co. State’s Attorney gig is a great launching pad, but if he didn’t run in an open primary in `02, (as was once rumored,) why would he challenge a sitting incumbent in the `06 primary?
Vallas, by the way, was 100 PERCENT INTERESTED IN MOVING BACK FROM PHILLY to challange Rod. Many key figures in his last campaign were ready to geer up for `06, until they talked to a couple of election lawyers and found out there was no way around the residency requirement.
Dan Hynes for Cook Cty. Board Pres? Nobody is going to force Stroger out except for Stroger - or the Mayor. And it makes no sense for Daley to ditch him at this point. Besides, wouldn’t Danny have to get in line behind Houlihan, Sheahan, John Daley, etc.?
Interesting that Tom Hynes just quit as 19th Ward Committeeman. Does that make Danny more of his own man and less of a product of the “old way”? And does that make him a more attractive “reform” candidate for Gov against Rod? Maybe. He can either run now or wait in line behind Lisa.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 2:31 pm
I would get enthusiastic about Hynes challenging Stroger. It’s a good place for Hynes.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 2:48 pm
Stroger and Tom Hynes are close political allies. Stroger let the elder Hynes hand-pick his successor when he stepped down as county assessor a few years ago. No way does Danny challenge Stroger.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 3:57 pm
No Democrat I talk to is personally excited about Rod except people who work for him. And frankly, he’s so unpopular in Sangamon County that he would probably lose to George Ryan in Springfield. I’d like to see a poll on that.
If LaHood is the Republican nominee we may see enough of the central Illinois swing voters go Republican that we’ll have a new Governor who will actually use the patronage system in Springfield instead of putting half the town out of a job. People should remember that downstate voters are a lot more likely to split their ticket than Cook or Collar County voters. LaHood is a real threat if Democrats don’t come up with a new candidate.
Comment by DownLeft Friday, Mar 4, 05 @ 10:07 pm
Hynes keeps tweeking Blago….to what end? Maybe he’s just trying to show he still has political pulse despite getting clobbered in the Senate race. Or maybe he really is thinking about challenging Rod. Running now is a huge risk (taking on an incumbent in a primary is always tough, no matter the office and no matter the circumstances.) But it might be worth a roll of the dice. There is no where else for Hynes to go right now. Like an earlier post said, his path to higher office is blocked by better positioned pols, both statewide and in Cook County. He would leap-frog every one if he runs now.
Danny is perceived as an overly cautious (almost timid,) politician following his father’s carefully crafted script. Taking on Rod would represent a bold, daring and unexpected political transformation — and I think a lot of people who are kind of cool towards Hynes now would really warm up to him. The media would love it.
I’m sure he doesn’t want to risk losing two races in a row, which would effectively kill his political career. But if I were advising Danny, I’d encourage him to ignore his political DNA and go for it. His Dad’s retirement as 19th Ward committeeman provides a symbolic opportunity for him to be perceived as his own man. He can seize the moment and try to catch lightening in a bottle, or he can sit back and wait for his turn, becoming the state’s longest serving Comptroller in the process.
Comment by Anonymous Saturday, Mar 5, 05 @ 12:19 pm
The last anonymous blogger stated that hynes is “perceived to be overly cautious and timid.” Perceived to be — he is timid and cautions. The fact that you would advise him to take the leap and challenge a well funded incumbant shows how little you know about the candidate himself. He is a very good comptroller — I would be happy to make him the Illinois version of Greenspan — Comptroller for life. But he doesnt have the political gonads to run in a tough primary and do what it takes to win. We just saw it in his senate race — he is a kitten. He took shots at hull, but wouldnt shoot at obama. Once obama’s numbers started going up, hynes should have gone negative on him th drive the approvals down and disapprovals up. Hynes doesnt have a killer instinct. Ive never seen a persion with a better opportunity (based on his statewide base) to take the next step against a bunch of non statewide pols. He blew it and everybody knows it. If he runs against blago, he loses — bad. blago will crush him like a bug.
Im neither here nor there on hynes, but lets face reality — a profile in courage he is not. Stay in the comptrollers office and wait for the critical mass to swoop you into your next position — dont take a risk because you cant handle it. youre a good comptroller — keep at it.
Comment by Anonymous Saturday, Mar 5, 05 @ 4:06 pm
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
Comment by Anonymous Saturday, Mar 5, 05 @ 4:17 pm
Please, people, just hit that “publish” button once. We’re getting way too many double-comments. Be patient.
Comment by Rich Miller Saturday, Mar 5, 05 @ 4:31 pm
Blago has done a good job! It seems everyone is angry, because he does not play ball with al the insiders who seek jobs and contracts. Blago has some serious faults, but look , he inherited all those scandals from Ryan and he needs to make govt. as clean as possible for future dems.to get elected statewide. He has energized the Hispanic community as hAS rewarded them for there support as well as the black community. Whites from cook and from downstate have also done well. Look he is not perfect, but the state is broke and he working hard to keep it going until more revenue comes in. He has also named some star cabinet positions , such as Fernando Grillo from the dept. of Proffessional Regulations, who is an upcoming star for Illinos dems. ! Bravo
Comment by F. Yanez Tuesday, Mar 8, 05 @ 9:42 pm
hynes is a country club brat with no organization, his dads people have always wanted gov, he inherited his dads bad timing, it’s a sorry group in the dem party, ripe for a charismatic leader with blue collar credentials
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 9, 05 @ 12:21 pm