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Not even half the story

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Illinois
Polls

* Today’s Tribune poll story is misleading. There’s no other way to put it. For instance…

Only 34 percent of Illinois voters had a favorable impression of Burris, compared with 18 percent who viewed him unfavorably. A total of 43 percent of voters said they had no opinion of the new senator.

Actually, that’s about a two-to-one favorable rating, which isn’t bad at all. And it’s much better than the last statewide poll by a different outfit which showed that Burris had both a 35 percent favorable and unfavorable rating.

The poll found that Chicago residents had the highest favorable impression of Burris at 51 percent while fewer than half of Democrats statewide—46 percent—shared that view.

Notice that the Tribune doesn’t tell you what his unfavorables are with those two demographics. Since they haven’t put the poll online, we’re supposed to just trust them. Don’t.

[O]nly 43 percent of Democratic voters in Illinois said he should make a bid in 2010. Voters who called themselves political independents, a key voting bloc, were split 36 percent to 33 percent on whether he should or shouldn’t run.

Again, they tell you that independents are split about whether he should run again, but don’t tell you what the “shouldn’t run” numbers are for Democrats.

And check this out…

Nearly half of the voters—48 percent—said they would like to see Quinn on next year’s ballot for governor, compared with 15 percent who said they would not like to see him run. More than one-third of the voters—37 percent—said they didn’t know if he should seek election to the post. […]

A Quinn bid for election as governor in 2010 was welcomed by nearly two-thirds of voters in the collar counties—significantly greater than by voters in Chicago and Cook County, where he has previously held city and county government posts.

That second graf is actually pretty astounding. Far more collar county voters want him to run than Chicago and Cook voters? That at least shows you the Republican attacks on Quinn haven’t worked so far and might even backfire. But the last graf was buried at the very end of the story.

…Adding… The Progress Illinois hed is: “Tribune Poll Finds Only 6% View Quinn Unfavorably.” The Tribune buried that result and instead puzzled over why 40 percent of Illinoisans don’t have an opinion about a lieutenant governor.

* Related…

* Carol Marin: It’s official. William M. Daley is no longer a candidate for governor in 2010.

* Giannoulias ‘Probably’ Leaning Toward US Senate Bid

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 9:53 am

Comments

t 51 percent while fewer than half of Democrats statewide—46 percent

5 percent, two years before the election? I am not sure I’d sweat this too much if I were Sen. Burris.

A Quinn bid for election as governor in 2010 was welcomed by nearly two-thirds of voters in the collar counties

I read this as “we can trust him to keep the Chicago Ds in check”. Which is not something they think the “get along” Rs will do.

Comment by Pat collins Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 9:59 am
A Rick Pearson story misleading? Shocking.

Comment by Stuck with Sen. CPA Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 10:11 am
If both Alexi and Burris run, perhaps Roland can persuade Blago to return the favor and be a stalking horse for him this time (I’m assuming Blago’s ban does not apply to federal offices from Illinois).

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 10:24 am
I read that Attorney General Madigan might run for U.S. senator or governor and that Treasurer Giannoulias might run for the U.S. Senate. She should run for governor, and he should run for the Senate. Comptroller Hynes should run for lt. gov.

Comment by ConservativeVeteran Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 10:33 am
Pearson has never liked Quinn, and it is obvious in his writing over many years.

Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 11:10 am
In this case polls really are misleading because Burris is easy pickens and anyone with any campaigning know how could take him out in his sleep. I can’t imagine what Alexi would do to him in a primary, especially, if he is parading around with his pal Obama.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 11:24 am
The President should, and I believe, will stay out of local and state Democratic primaries.

Comment by Bill Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 11:51 am
=== Republicans can’t wait to see Democrats cannibalize each other in the upcoming election. Not just in the gubernatorial race where Quinn is the accidental incumbent, but in the U.S. Senate race where Roland Burris is as well. ===

How can Marin forget Stroger?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 11:52 am
–How can Marin forget Stroger?–

Maybe she’s just trying harder than the rest of us.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 12:03 pm
I don’t think Obama or Emannual were too keen on having Burris stuffed down their throats by Blago and Bobby Rush and I believe they will need to make and example or statement to deter others from embarrassing them.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 1:24 pm
Stroger is not an accidental incumbent. He was elected to office.

Comment by Bill Wednesday, Feb 11, 09 @ 1:49 pm