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* We’re all expecting Tribune poll numbers soon, but GOP gubernatorial candidate Andy McKenna is releasing his own results ahead of time. This is from McKenna’s pollsters, John McLaughlin and Stuart Polk dated today…
With 2-weeks to go, the survey results from last night clearly illustrate that Andy McKenna has been building momentum and is making a charge at the end to win the Republican primary for Governor. It is evident that Andy McKenna has used his resources effectively to communicate a strong message and put him in a position to win. With the right amount of resources, Andy McKenna can continue his momentum and win the Republican primary for Governor.
Half (49%) of the Republican primary electorate recalls seeing a television ad about Andy McKenna within the past couple of weeks. Those voters who have seen the McKenna TV ads are significantly more favorable to him and more likely to vote for him.
Since October, Andy McKenna has made the biggest gains among all of the candidates and is now tied for first place. Jim Ryan’s numbers have actually started to erode while Andy McKenna’s efforts have made him a top contender with traction in this crowded primary field. He is maintaining momentum with his effective media campaign and voter outreach. Among those who have seen his television ad, he is the frontrunner.
More from the poll…
Which candidate for Governor is best described by the following statement… “will cut spending and will not raise taxes”?
* Meanwhile, Jim Ryan has a new video of the Bob Schillerstrom endorsement. Have a look…
* Also, SEIU has made a belated endorsement of Toni Preckwinkle for county board president. SEIU has concentrated most of its resources on Gov. Quinn’s campaign - kicking in well more than $1 million since July of last year.
* Quinn’s presser blasting Hynes for the Harold Washington ad is now on YouTube. It’s in four parts. Have a look…
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 3:52 pm
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Weak. Weak. Weak.
The tears are for the patronage that is slipping away.
Comment by True Observer Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:08 pm
Dillard is surging. Notice that McKenna doesn’t release the actual numbers - only shows him in the lead for those who have “seen the ad.” My guess is Daddy McKenna got the Trib numbers early and he is trying to mask the fact that he is not winning.
Dillard has now been endorsed by Crains, Sun Times, Southwest Star, Southwest Herald, Peoria Journal Star, Illinois State Rifle Association, Illinois Education Association, Jim Edgar, Judy Biggert, Family PAC, Jack Roeser, etc.
McKenna’s dad secured the inside deal for the Trib and his money bought Tom Cross and a few House Republicans. The ship is sinking for McKenna.
Comment by 4 percent Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:10 pm
Quinn presser: YAWN
It will not resonate to the average joe voter.
But the Hynes “You’re fired” ad will!
Comment by 2010 Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:14 pm
Either elements of the conservative wing of the party is supporting someone other than Brady, Andrzejewski or Proft, or the size of that wing has decreased considerably.
Comment by Scooby Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:15 pm
Hey 4%, how’s the kool-aid at Dillard HQ? It doesn’t look like anyone is “surging”. No one is above 18%, which is tied with “undecided” for the lead.
Comment by Whatever Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:16 pm
4%, what are you ranting about? The entire numbers ARE there. The total for the poll has McKenna and Ryan tied at 18%, followed by your boss Dillard at 17%, and Brady at 11%
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:20 pm
So maybe if Ed Burke had left the democratic party they’d have a problem with him too?
Tom Hynes was mean and unsupportive to HW. Tom Hynes left the Democratic Party. No longer a democrat Tom Hynes remained mean to HW.
I’m glad that Rush, Davis and Grimshaw were allowed to express their feelings. Apparently they’ve been carrying this pain for so many years. Maybe instead of the press conference they should have tried to reach out and talk to TOM Hynes directly years ago. I hope for their sakes they feel better after airing their grievances about Tom Hynes and are now able to move on.
Jacky Grimshaw mentions John Stroger. It reminded of 2006 when I met some black people who were not supporting Todd Stroger because his father did not support Harold Washington when he ran for mayor. I think I recall Jacky Grimshaw on Chicago Tonight speaking fondly of John Stroger when he passed away. As far as I have understood there historically has been a tension between the machine and independent black political element in Chicago. Intra-racial political squabbling is quickly swept under the carpet and ignored.
So, based on that I suspect that if Dock Walls had used the video of HW Davis, Rush and Grimshaw would not have had problem with that. It’s unortunate because if a wrong is wrong then it’s a wrong regardless as to who commits the wrong.
I’m not sure what they hoped to accomplish with the press confernence, but I hope they feel better having gotten some long held feelings off their chests.
Comment by Will County Woman Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:22 pm
Adam is going to sweep this thing now that ONE former state senator endorsed him.
Comment by Aa Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:23 pm
That explains why McKenna and Brady are attacking Dillard. He is the only one with momentum…bring on the strong push from Edgar. Dillard is the most feared GOP candidate by Dems. They know he can crush Quinn or beat Hynes.
Comment by GOP Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:24 pm
Beware Gubernatorial candidates releasing internal numbers in advance of a highly anticipated media poll.
Comment by ILPundit Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:25 pm
I meant all numbers - i.e. crosstabs
Comment by 4 percent Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:27 pm
Those poll #’s are the results ONLY of people who have “Seen McKenna TV Ad”. The %’s in the far right-hand column add up to 100%. So, all of the responses in that brief snippet released have seen his ad.
Put differently, 77% of the people who have seen Andy McKenna’s TV ad will be voting for someone else.
Be interesting to see the full numbers of all polled, not just those that have seen the ad.
Comment by Look Again Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:28 pm
The Democrats WANT Dillard because he’ll go to Springfield and play the same old go-along, get-along games, giving Dems. everything they want and raising taxes to pay for it. After all, he endorsed Obama for President, so they know they’ll get the same mushy, pat-on-the-back treatment.
Comment by Silly Season Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:28 pm
Look Again, you need to look again. Those that have seen the McKenna ad are just a subset of the entire poll. Sheesh, some of you need to learn how to read the poll, or at least remove that blind spot that keeps you from seeing the middle column labeled “January 2010″
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:31 pm
Pat- Thanks for the steady hands.
Comment by Ace Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:31 pm
Those McKenna commercials are silly and the cartoon voice-over guy sounds like he is selling Pepperidge Farm. The Democrats will eat McKenna up. Hynes or Quinn are preying for McKenna instead of Dillard.
Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:34 pm
For Quinn’s sake, I hope his campaign people don’t think that presser is enough to rebut the Washington/Hynes ad. I’d imagine they’ll have some sort ad up firing back.
The should have had Danny Davis say: “I knew Harold Washington. Harold Washington was a friend of mine. Comptroller Hynes, you’re no Harold Washington.”
Comment by not impressed Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:36 pm
Anon: 100% of the respondents in the snippet released have seen the ad. It makes you wonder why they haven’t released the full poll findings.
Between 12/09-1/10, among poll respondents who are likely to pull a “Republican Primary Ballot for Governor” and have “Seen McKenna’s TV Ad”:
- McKenna’s support has increased from 4 to 18
- Dillard’s support has increased from 7 to 17
- Brady’s support has increased from 8 to 11
- so on and so forth
I wonder what the full poll results would show if they included likely Republican primary voters that haven’t “Seen McKenna’s TV Ad”???
Comment by Look Again Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:40 pm
Look Again, you clearly don’t know how to read a poll. The full results are Mckenna 18%, Ryan 18%, Dillard 17%, etc. OF THOSE IN THE POLL THAT HAVE SEEN THE AD is a subset. Subsets add up to 100% too, but that 100% is not 100% of all those polled. The middle column is.
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:42 pm
Would someone please explain to me how these Quinn supporters can express so much outrage about Tom Hynes while their guy is taking a six figure donation from the man who led the Coucil Wars against Harold Washington (Alderman Burke)? A little hypocritical in my view. Apparently it was okay to be against Harold Washington if you now support Pat Quinn. To use Quinn’s response yesterday - This is all “phoney baloney.”
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:44 pm
Did any intrepid reporters ask any of the late Mayor’s dear friends what exactly caused Quinn’s dismissal? Anybody? Buehler?
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:45 pm
This sounds like to me that Mckenna is not going to like the Tribune poll position. Therefore, they better get their spin out before the release of the real numbers. The person that runs the most ads of course is going to be seen the most. That does not mean they are going to vote for that person. Only millionaires think that way.
Comment by A matter of trust Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:47 pm
I agree that it is hypocritical, but that’s they way they play in politics. All the politicians at the press conference have already endorsed Quinn.
Unlike Alton Miller who hasn’t endorsed anyone, and hopefully won’t, these politcians and Grimshaw are not exactly independent voices.
Whether Hynes continues to run the ad is up to his camp. I don’t find the offensive and I would run it sparingly. I probably wouldn’t run it on black media, but I would run it everywhere else.
It is a great ad and it’s an honest assessment. In no way is the ad a distortion.
Comment by Will County Woman Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:58 pm
Ever been to Wall Drug? It is in South Dakota. They have hundreds of billboards across the United States telling you about it. It is famous for it’s billboards. Wall Drug isn’t a chain. It isn’t much of a tourist stop. The billboards make you aware of Wall Drug, but really doesn’t make you want to stop and do business there.
Andy McKenna is now famous for his bad ads.
If Mr. McKenna’s campaign folks think that this will translate into support for Mr. McKenna they are utterly delusional.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 4:58 pm
VanillaMan, the poll shows that McKenna does better among those who have seen the ads vs. those who have not…sooo it seems that his ads are giving him a little boost.
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:03 pm
Building momentum, eh? Good old ‘Mo’.
How’s about McKenna and/or the Trib explaining exactly HOW they’re gonna solve the State’s financial mess/crisis without raising taxes?
Maybe I missed it , but I’m still waiting.
Comment by sal-says Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:06 pm
We are saying the same thing, Anon! I am saying that the brief snippet released does not reflect the entire poll’s findings. How is that not clear to you?
Put differently, they only released results from the subset of poll respondents who have “Seen McKenna’s TV Ad”.
Sheesh… please read comments with the same attention you pay to reading polls. Thank you, Anon.
Comment by Look Again Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:12 pm
Finally. Zorn gets it.
http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2010/01/from-the-archives-washington-insisted-that-quinn-was-not-fired-the-mayor-said-he-asked-for-quinns-re.html
Quinn stood up to Mayor Washington. Wouldn’t play ball on hinky deals. That’s the Pat Quinn I know and admire. He sold his soul to the Dem Machine and threw his brand into the toilet, all to keep this thankless job. If he would have stayed true to himself, this Washington thing could have been a Quinn commercial, not a Hynes commercial.
I love irony.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:12 pm
47, that’s Quinn’s side of the story.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:17 pm
Andy Mckenna Jr. and I’m sorry…but he has a Mr. Rogers personality. He’s spending his millions on TV ads and he is hiding behind them. He’s not exciting and he is very boring.
Yes, in a perfect world nobody wants to raise taxes Andy we get it. It always seems like the candidate who promises not to raise taxes…raises taxes once in office.
As for Dillard, this Edgar talk is getting old…he has nothing to run on except a job he had 12 years ago.
Comment by scoot Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:18 pm
Look Again, you’re not getting it. The results for all those polled ARE there. The column under “January 2010″ is the results for all 600 respondents. The column under “Seen McKenna TV add is the results for the 49% (300 or so of the 600 responses) of those who have seen the ad. Overall, among Republican voters (whether they have seen the ads or not), McKenna and Ryan are tied at 18%. Among only those who have seen the McKenna ads, McKenna has 23% support vs. 19% for Dillard.
Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:21 pm
Fair point Rich. It’s also why he can’t respond. If Quinn repeats his side of the story, he calls Washington’s administration corrupt. How’s that going to play among African American voters?
I like Pat Quinn, but he sold out a fine reputation and he has stumbled badly and repeatedly in the big job. Hynes’ use of the Washington stuff is fair game, but it’s only Washington’s side of the story.
I just wanted to hear Schakowsky, Rush, Davis and Gutierrez defend Washington and recall Operation Incubator. I assume that subject didn’t come up today.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:21 pm
quinn gets some vindication
quinn gets crain’s endorsement
quinn is still up by 7 percentage points and is in the lead over Hynes.
Comment by Will County Woman Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:21 pm
There’s no difference between being “fired” and “asked to resign.”
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:47 pm
Quinn still loses the election
Comment by Stupid Human Tricks Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:57 pm
As world famous Chicago-based author, writer and humorist Finley Peter Dunne once quipped, “Politics ain’t beanbag: ’tis a man’s game, and women, children ‘n’ pro-hy-bitionists had best stay out of it.”
Comment by T.PeterSimmons Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 6:20 pm