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* A few weeks ago, a buddy of mine in the Pat Quinn campaign explained why he believed Dan Hynes was making no progress against Quinn. “Voters don’t view Pat as the incumbent,” he said.
Now that the race has dramatically changed, I think voters have taken a different view and actually see Quinn as an incumbent. That’s the background for my latest syndicated newspaper column…
With the primary election just around the corner, just about everybody I know has asked me who I think will win the various races.
I try to avoid making win/loss predictions, and this campaign season is a prime example for why everybody should just sit back and wait to see what the voters do.
For instance, a month or so ago, Comptroller Dan Hynes looked to most longtime political observers - including me - like he was toast. Stick a fork in him. Sayonara, dude. Pretty much everybody had given up on him.
Hynes had spent millions of dollars and hadn’t closed the gap between himself and Gov. Quinn. His message at the time - that Quinn’s tax increase proposals were bad for the middle class - just wasn’t working. He trailed Quinn in every poll by anywhere from 20 to 30 percentage points.
Then, of course, Quinn’s administration was hit with a scandal that has not stopped reverberating. His Department of Corrections director secretly let loose hundreds of violent prison inmates before their scheduled release dates in order to save a few bucks. Quinn first said he knew about it, then said he didn’t know about it, then blamed it all on his director, whom the governor has since adamantly and repeatedly refused to fire.
Because Quinn wouldn’t fire the guy, Quinn effectively took ownership of the scandal for himself. If he had fired the director, Quinn could’ve blamed everything on an underling and moved forward with some media-friendly prison reforms. But since Quinn refused to budge, Quinn was the one who got the blame - because blame always moves upwards if no actions are taken. And when some of those early released prisoners committed violent crimes after they were given their “Get out of Jail Free” cards, that blame became intense.
Until that point, I don’t think most voters viewed Quinn as a standard incumbent. He basically fell into the job when Rod Blagojevich was arrested, impeached and removed from office. So, I think, people were more than willing to cut Quinn as much slack as possible. That’s a big reason why Hynes’ early attacks didn’t work. Quinn wasn’t viewed as culpable for the state’s many problems (he inherited the budget deficit disaster from Blagojevich and George Ryan, after all), and people gave him points for trying, even if they disagreed with him (like when he proposed that big tax hike).
But the combined bungles of the early release plan and Quinn’s refusal to hold anyone truly accountable has, in my mind, convinced folks that he is now an incumbent just like every other incumbent. And that’s a dangerous place to be in a year shaping up as toxic for incumbents.
So it’s no surprise at all that Quinn’s own polling showed last week that he was leading Hynes by just a few points and was fading fast. Suddenly, Hynes is a contender.
Hynes began running a new TV ad late last week that featured the late Chicago Mayor Harold Washington explaining on video why he fired Quinn from a top job in the 1980s. The video is certainly dramatic, but it’s also right on topic. Washington basically says in the video that Quinn was an incompetent showboater. It’s almost as if Washington is speaking this week, not 20-odd years ago.
It’s not easy to defeat a sitting governor in a party primary. The governor controls so many of the party’s strings, so much of the money and can command so much media attention for every little thing he does that it’s tough for an opponent to compete. Add in the super-early Feb. 2 primary date this year - which has shortened the campaign season by six or seven weeks - and it’s just about impossible.
So, while I will follow my tradition and not make a prediction about who will win this race, I will say this: The Hynes campaign has done just about everything right since the first of the year and Quinn has done just about everything wrong since mid-December. If Hynes doesn’t win, it was never in the cards.
* That same Quinnster buddy and I had what you might call an “intense conversation” over the weekend about the Quinn campaign’s use of Bobby Rush to defend against the Harold Washington ad. Eric Zorn is not happy, either…
In a new [Internet video] the Pat Quinn campaign features U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush expressing his indignation about last week’s bombshell commercial from the Dan Hynes campaign:
“And here’s Dan Hynes, who hasn’t done anything in public life that’s notable,” says Rush. “This is an act of a desperate man who is in a desperate situation and is running a desperate campaign.”
Not only is Hynes actually in a statistical dead heat with Quinn in the Democratic gubernatorial primary race and far from desperate, but… Bobby Rush? The guy who played a whole deckful of race cards a little more than a year ago to be sure that no one derailed the appointment of Roland Burris to the U.S. Senate?
* Zorn also checked to see if Dan Hynes “slagged” Barack Obama during the 2004 US Senate primary. He found one instance. Here’s a linked Sun-Times article from 2004…
Hynes opened Wednesday’s debate by attacking Obama, his former ally:
“When George Ryan was leading our state into a fiscal ditch, I took him on,” Hynes said. “I often stood alone. That’s what leaders do. Barack Obama chose a different course. He stayed silent. He didn’t do anything.”
Obama said it was Hynes who sat “on the sidelines” as Obama fought Ryan in Springfield.
“Dan mentioned earlier about George Ryan’s budget… I’ve actually passed laws that helped to provide tax relief for working families. Twenty thousand children have health care this year that didn’t have it last year because of a law I passed. On all of these issues, I’ve actually delivered.”
Hynes staffers were seen passing out anti-Obama literature that did not bear the Hynes campaign logo.
* I wrote over the weekend that if one of Hynes’ African-American or white liberal backers spoke up in anger about the Harold Washington ad, I’d be a whole lot more impressed. Last night, the Quinn campaign sent me a link to a blog written by a Chicago public school teacher…
But then Hynes ran an ad using the dead Harold against Quinn, who supported Harold but was fired from his job as Washington’s budget chief. My stomach turned. And when I early voted at the local library yesterday, I skipped the governor’s line.
Not exactly what I had in mind, but I give the Quinnsters big points for trying.
* Related…
* Green Party candidate for governor waits in wings
* Governor candidates have no qualms cashing big checks
* Quinn, Hynes battle for Democratic nomination
* Democrats tout recent ethics work
* Quinn, Hynes meet in last debate before primary
* Press release: Hynes floats education plan
* Six Dems vie to succeed Quinn
* Varied Republican field wants to be lt. governor
* Edwardsville man seeks lieutenant governorship
* Transparency common theme in comptroller race
* Four aim to fill vacated treasurer’s post
* Where treasurer candidates stand on issues
* Democratic treasurer candidates pit experience against ‘fresh leadership’
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:01 am
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With 11% unemployment just about any incumbent governor would be in trouble, even in a primary.
I think Quinn “became” the incumbent with the early release fiasco. Couldn’t blame that on Blago.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:11 am
the ministers who spoke up against Hynes sounded fired up.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:12 am
I enjoyed reading that column. Thanks for the thoughtful analysis on the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see some of the younger prominent African-American dems like a Will Burns or a Kwame Raoul speak out about this Harold Washington ad.
Comment by Big Policy Nerd Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:16 am
Who is the major Hynes supporter you’d like to see denounce it? He doesn’t have any major supporters.
He has one elected official endorsed, Bob Rita, and a slew of has beens and never was. Dock Walls, John Schmidt, and ????
Comment by Wizard of Ozzie Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:30 am
**one of Hynes’ African-American or white liberal backers **
I asked this in another thread, but what prominent African American or white liberal backers does Hynes have? I am not asking this rhetorically. I just don’t recall seeing any endorse Hynes.
Comment by dave Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:36 am
The whole early prison release fiasco made the Sunday New York times for all the nation/world to see.
I’m sure the “accidental” Governor of New York, a former Lt. Governor also, felt somewhat vindicated in seeing, no pun intended, that’s he’s not the only one with problems.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:47 am
Dave, I answered you on that other thread. Happy? Satisfied?
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:50 am
prison release fiasco made the Sunday New York times
it did? what section/page?
Comment by A Naughty Moose Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:51 am
I was out of town last week and could not beleive the ad I I I I was out of town last week and just saw the ad
Out of town last week. I just saw the ad Hynes ran with Washington. Who is running his campaign?
Karl Rove? How low can you go? Quoting a deceased Mayor’s opinion twenty years ago of a current Governor?
This is relevant because? After Hynes loses next week, can we watch him slither away?
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:54 am
sorry about the typos…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:55 am
**Dave, I answered you on that other thread. Happy? Satisfied?**
Okay… so you think that it is a good thing that Hynes has no endorsements from liberals or African Americans. Interesting.
Comment by dave Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:56 am
Dave, just ignore her…I really like Rich, but the fact that he and WCW are supporting the same candidate makes me wonder…
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:00 pm
Yes, he is beholden to no one. In a race like this where you want the strongest democrat up against a republican who will undountedly hammer home the point that dems in this state are all out for speical interests and the ‘party’ over the people of Illinois, Hynes’ not appearing to be beholden to hands-out dems looking to get neices, nephews, cousins et al. on the state payroll via the gov’s office is a good thing. and his calls to not slate, was right on.
he looks cleaner and plays cleaner in the general. he takes legitimate GOP arguments totally off the table.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:01 pm
The competency concerns arose last spring and summer with the lame direction of his tax increase proposals, during the budget talks and then later after Quinn asserted that he had handled the deficits effectively. There just has not been much evidence of good leadership.
Comment by vole Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:02 pm
**Yes, he is beholden to no one.**
Do you really believe that?
Comment by dave Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:03 pm
LOL. How can I back myself out of this? Well, let me try this…I looked at his campaign contributions. Beholden to a lot of attorneys, I guess. LOL.
But in all seriousness…. take the weekend for example. Does anyone honestly believe that the Jesse Jacksons did what they did out of the kindness of their heart for Quinn? Seeing that type of stuff makes me wonder what white dem voters who are ‘undecided’ thought of the whole display, if they saw. Also it makes it harder for Quinn to court moderate republicans in the fall. Hynes is kinda positoned in a fiscal conservative mold.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:13 pm
Rod Blagojevich turned out to be like the drunk husband Farrah torched as a battered wife in, “The Burning Bed”. Six years of being kicked around and cheated on by a guy who wouldn’t wear deodorant. When we divorced Blagojevich, we felt pretty good about the guy who replaced him. What happened?
Quinn is no stud muffin. No one expected to fall in love with him. What we did expect was that our new guy would be a stable leader that would bring home the bacon and pay our bills. We thought he would do for now, and that after a while we would find something to love about him later on.
He had a past, we all knew about. In his youth he had hair, a trimmer waist, and was a big dreamer. We remember how this guy was our moonbeam goo-goo who believed in us. We saw his past relationships with public office, and while he was kind of sloppy and not completely housebroken, we thought we knew that down deep inside, he could be a spitfire. Pat Quinn used to hang around us, strumming something melodic about how good we were and how badly we were treated by others, and hit on us now and then. Pat Quinn was icky, but kinda sweet. And now he was the MAN. OK - let’s do it Pat!
But it has been a year, and our year long honeymoon with this giant Pooh-Bear still hasn’t been consumated. We’ve tried to entice him to let him know that we were his, but Pat wouldn’t go beyond dithering shyness. Whenever an issue would come up, Pat would stumble around, talk out of both sides of his mouth, and then ask if he needed to shave his back. Whenever we wanted to “get real” with this new guy, he would mumble about the fact that he needed some kind of protection first. We would be all hot, and get nothing but pretty talk about how he respected us too much to make a commitment.
After a year long honeymoon, votes are feeling like all they got from Pat Quinn is a “band of gold”, but no action.
Enter Dan Hynes. Talk about your pity dates. Dan Hynes is the accountant to the Mustang Ranch ran by George Ryan and Rod Blagojevich. Dan is no hunk, but we’re giving up on the platonic puffiness Pat Quinn has been offering us.
So I’m not surprised. In 2002 we got into a bad relationship with a lying egomaniac. In 2006, we were stuck in the relationship, and Topinka wasn’t attractive enough to get us to switch teams. Now it’s 2010, watched Obama go to DC, and listen to Pat Quinn give us excuses as to how he’s gonna make us really happy, after a year of bad lip service.
This is forcing us to tell Hynes, “Hey little geeky guy - is that a pocket protector in your pocket, or are you just glad to see us?”
“It is a pocket protector?”
“OK - whatever, let’s give it a go!”
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:16 pm
@ A Naughty Moose - Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:51 am
not the front page, hun. I read the on-line version. I’m sure the story is still accessible. It was an AP story if it helps.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:17 pm
The Quinn Junior G-Man that found that blog post should be on sign duty today, judging from a couple of the other Anti-Quinn posts over there…
Comment by Horace Mann Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:23 pm
WCW then it didn’t really “make the Sunday New York times for all the nation/world to see”. Every AP outlet runs most/all AP content on its site, so this being on NYT.com isn’t so remarkable. A print story would be.
Comment by A Naughty Moose Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:32 pm
Ok. before you get an attitude about it check it and go see for yourself if its print too. I don’t what era you’re from but more and more people are reading newspapers online. I stand by what i wrote because I do understand the impact of a story like that being in the Sunday New York Times. also It was one of the headlining stories in the US section.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:39 pm
No attitude, I just didn’t see it in my ink and paper copy and was curious. Thanks though.
Comment by A Naughty Moose Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:44 pm
ok. peace.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 1:24 pm
Rich:
This was your most insightful column of this political season. I think you really hit on something here that is both true, and something that no else is reporting. A vast improvement over any of the analysis out there, and frankly, over your own earlier analysis this season.
Comment by Niles Township Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 1:27 pm
Moose, I caught the online AP story in NY Times also–caught it as a link to the side here yesterday morning under the AP news headlines. At the bottom of the story linked to it does say “A version of this article appeared in print on January 24, 2010, on page A19 of the National edition”.
Comment by Cindy Lou Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 1:54 pm
as for education, show me the money.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:06 pm
“A version of this article appeared in print on January 24, 2010, on page A19 of the National edition”.
not mine. taxes in oregon and bernanke plus a half-page ad.
Comment by A Naughty Moose Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:12 pm
I am a 75 year old white liberal who has voted democratic for 57 years but am so disguested wth Dan Hynes and his divisive, fear mongering. For the first time in 57 years the Republicans iwll look good if Hynes is on the democrat ticket.
Comment by bill Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:33 pm
Thanks bill.
By the way, we prefer “Democratic” ticket. You’ll be missed. Enjoy your social security and be sure to thank a 30-something Democrat for it.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:44 pm
Bill, I’m a 65 year old white moderate Republican and I think we will have an abundance of riches on the ballot for Governor in November.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:34 pm
schnorf -
You better only have one candidate on the ballot in November…unless the “abundance of riches” was a reference to McKenna?
Great column, Rich.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:51 pm
I have a feeling “bill” is not the original bill. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 3:56 pm
You got that right. He’s been on before but out of respect for his advanced age I haven’t said anything.
Comment by Bill Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 4:09 pm
I think that Hynes would’ve never ran a “risky” ad if it wasn’t practically a Hail Mary bomb, maybe they knew they were only 4 points behind, but I doubt it. He wasn’t going to get any African American votes so Hynes must’ve figured it was worth a shot. Many AAs I have talked to were turned off by the ad, but PQ didn’t help himself with Bobby Rush leading the charge. He could’ve shown a clip with him backing Harold and Harold taking a few shots at Tom Hynes. I think Bobby Rush may help Hynes get a few white votes but Hynes may lose some liberal votes who think Hynes shouldn’t involve race in the contest.
Comment by Jimmy Joe Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:03 pm
===maybe they knew they were only 4 points behind, but I doubt it.===
Well, you shouldn’t listen to your gut. They knew. Heck, I knew. Everybody knew.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:09 pm
Dog, I think there will be at least 2 capable candidates for Gov in November. I don’t know the Green guy.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 7:12 pm