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* As we saw over the weekend, the Tribune poll has things mighty close in the two governor’s races. December results are in parentheses…
* Pat Quinn: 44 (49)
* Dan Hynes: 40 (23)* Andy McKenna 19 (12)
* Jim Ryan 18 (26)
* Kirk Dillard 14 (9)
* Bill Brady 9 (10)
* The Question: Who do you think will win the two primaries? Explain, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:14 am
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Previous Post: Quinn now carries the baggage of incumbency
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Hmmm….Quinn and Mckenna by tiny margins.
Comment by Rudy Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:16 am
Explain, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:16 am
McKenna because he is the only one with money (and a lot of it, at that)
Quinn because he’s in the, and as a Republican I really really really want that doofus to be our opponent.
Comment by well Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:20 am
Hynes and McKenna
Quinn is stuck. The whole Bobby Rush style race baiting shows how much of a cornered animal he is at this point. The killer is that he appears incapable of handling the job. Hynes took a race that looked like a boring incumbent renomination and turned it on its head making it into the season’s biggest slugfest. Kudos for his campaign organization.
Mc Kenna for the GOP. Money money money–monnnnnney. It’s a McKenna/Dillard race to the finish. (Ryan’s name recognition lead is gone now, and I do not see the GOP going for a 2002 retread.) It would be shaken up a bit if Andy A, or Proft dropped out and endorsed the other uniting the conservatives though.
train111
Comment by train111 Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:21 am
***Quinn because he’s in the lead***
(I hate typos)
Comment by well Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:21 am
Ooops, sorry, forgot the explanation. I’m not so sure that the bungled early release program blowback is going to hurt Quinn as much as many think with Democrat primary voters. As for the GOP, I think McKenna’s latest ad will injure Dillard just enough to get the job done, and Ryan’s numbers have plummeted as of late. I just see McKenna eeking it out with a late game money blitz.
Comment by Rudy Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:22 am
I think Hynes might be able to pull it out. Obviously his negative ads have been effective (all though I think he could make them even more hard-hitting if he chose to). I saw Quinn’s attack ad against Hynes this morning (re: cemetaries) and it was very well done, also. I think if Hynes keeps hammering on the prisoner release issue, he can eek out a victory.
I think Dillard will squeak out a victory on the GOP side. He just received a ton of newspaper endorsements all over the state, which boosts his exposure a bit. McKenna’s ads have been effective, but in the end, he doesn’t inspire anyone. This one is probably too close to call, however, because of the Ryan name-factor.
Comment by downstater Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:22 am
I think Hynes has the momentum and is well positioned money-wise for a strong finish. Quinn looks like he is limping toward the finish line. I saw him at an event last week, and he looks physically tired.
I’m not a Republican, obviously, so I don’t have a good sense of how GOP primary voters think. Having said that, I think McKenna pulls it out in a squeaker over a late charge by Dillard. Ryan is fading slowly, with no money to close with.
If it is Hynes McKenna in November, the Senate race will suck all of the oxygen out of the race. Can you imagine the Hynes/McKenna debates? Sponsored by Lunesta, because if the charisma of these guys doesn’t bore you to sleep, we’ve got a pill for you…
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:23 am
Quinn, just because I don’t think Hynes has sealed the deal.
As for the GOP… You will think I am nuts but… Adam Andrzejewski I think is support is deep enough that those folks will show up regardless. No one else beside Proft has really caused any passion among folks. I think his support is such that it doesn’t show up in a poll.
Again I may be nuts, but my gut is telling me he is going to pull it off.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:25 am
Quinn and Ryan. I think the undecideds will decide the primaries. When they finally have to make up their minds, they’ll vote for the candidate with whom they are most familiar. Quinn and Ryan.
Comment by KeepSmiling Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:28 am
Hynes. When you are the incumbent, sitting in the mid 40s with a 60% disapproval in a 2-way race, it becomes very hard to hit the necessary 50%.
Hynes, on the other hand, is sitting with a 4:1 favorability rating.
On the GOP side — It would be a flip of a coin — if a coin had three sides.
Comment by ILPundit Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:29 am
Quinn and McKenna. Quinn because, regardless of what the ads say, regular people trust him. They’ve known him for a long time, and they know about his history as a reformer, as well as a consumer advocate. I dont think that most people believe that Quinn is the race baiter in this campaign. Hynes ad with Mayor Washington is causing “Blacklash” (this is a word used by Rep. Rush, and reported by Charles Thomas), and I believe that Quinn did what he needed to do this weekend by getting out there with African American elected officials and chrch leaders to denounce the ads and the use of the former Mayor’s image for a negative ad in this campaign. I think Dan took his shot, gave a real low blow, but it wont be enough to put him over the top. It will be close, but anybody who expected a blow-out in this race was delusional. Hynes has high name ID and was going to make this a race regardless.
As for McKenna, he has the cash and he has the ads. He also has two opponents who are cutting into each other’s base in DuPage County. Brady could pull it off if downstate votes in big numbers, but he lacks the cash to get his message out in the final week before the primary.
If Ryan or Brady win the primary, Quinn definately wins the general. If McKenna or Dillard wih the priomary, the general will be a much tougher race.
Comment by Anon Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:32 am
McKenna’s support is as “deep as sun burn”…he’s bought his name id which will fade…he’s violated his own ethics pledge at least twice…with poll and negative advertising…
The voters are smarter than the pundits…and Tribune polls…
Dillard wins on integrity…decency…and everyday appeal to many…not too slick….sincere and practical…he’s a good solid pragmatic conservative that speaks civilized and with respect for the system, and people…
Comment by Gman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:35 am
Hynes wins on D side. All the momentum is with him. Quinn has become a lousier campaigner with each passing year. Plus the lovable loser schtick has gotten really old.
On the R side, incredibly McKenna wins. He’s got the money to buy momentum and his ads hit the issues Republican voters care about, the economy and taxes. Non-activists who don’t know McKenna and his history, will vote for him.
Dillard threw this one away. His campaign is awful and lethargic. His constant mentioning of Edgar, who he worked for back in the last century, has become an embarrassing joke. It all just calls more attention to the taxes Dillard’s raised and the Obama he helped elect in the more recent years. McKenna’s lastest ad hitting Dillard for helping to elect Obama and for rasing taxes is the last nail in Dillard’s coffin. Few are turning out to mourn.
Dillard is reduced now to personally calling people on the phone to urge them to post postive comments about him on internet sites. I’m serious. Three people have told me they were so directed by Dillard himself.
Ryan may still have an outside chance. He seems to be falling, but enough Republicans may hold their nose and vote for him as the lesser of many weasels. Better the devil you know kind of thing.
But given how weak all the GOP candidates are, I think McKenna’s bankroll carries the day.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:36 am
I’m voting for Hynes, but I agree with KeepSmiling on Quinn (sigh) because of the huge benefits conferred by incumbency and name recognition-a double whammy.
For me, the Republican race is much more uncertain. I guess I’d go with Ryan because he has name recognition and a sympathetic personal story. Dillard isn’t well known and McKenna, despite his poll numbers, doesn’t seem that well known either. And neither Dillard nor McKenna has much charisma, if any. Adam would be great, a real next generation choice, but I just don’t see him getting the numbers. I hope he stays in politics, though.
Comment by cassandra Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:36 am
Hynes- because Quinn looks weak, he’s going to lose support in the African American community over the Washington hit piece, and Dems are going to go the polling booth with one thing on their minds- competence. They don’t want to see IL go the way of Massachusetts bc of a weak candidate. Quinn’s goose is cooked.
McKenna- he has overwhelmed his opponents with almost 5 times the cash that any other one has. Money speaks, and it yells in a crowded primary. He’s drilled his stance on taxes into the voters’ minds, and that’s the message that they all want to hear. I also think his new ad will successfully drag down Ryan and Dillard’s numbers enough in the last week for him to squeak it up.
Hynes V. McKenna in November.
Comment by Bring Back Boone's Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:37 am
Hynes and Dillard.
Both campaigns are on the upswing. Hynes has the momentum as Quinn has been visibly fading. Dillard has momentum even though he hasn’t campaigned as strongly as he should. (Instead of fading, he is strengthening.) This means that there is a growing core for Dillard, which means something. I also hate McKenna, so I am definately biased here.
At this point, however, anything could happen.
But think about this you Republicans - you want a conservative Democrat to cross over, along with independant voters in order to win?
Don’t nominate McKenna, because there is no way we would ever vote for him. Quinn might be a dithering boob, but I’d take him over McKenna. There is no realistic condition where McKenna would ever get our votes.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:37 am
Hynes, because he has momentum, money and a couple of devastating spots in early release and Harold.
McKenna, because he has the most money to hold off Dillard’s momentum. Unless Dillard has some big money coming in, I think he comes up short.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:39 am
McKenna in the GOP: He will at least get an even break on the undecideds and that will be enough.
Ryan will not get any of the undecideds to break his way and his numbers continue to drop. Dillard is getting hammered now and will either have to defend or attack with very limited resources. Plus, Dillard just needs too big a share of the undecideds–it just cannot happen when he is getting outspent 3:1 while being hammered for endorsing Obama.
Quinn: Mostly this is wishful thinking, but I still believe the wards in the city will turnout for him and at the end of the day that will be enough. Those voters aren’t swayed by commercials or perceived momentum.
Comment by Easy Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:40 am
CaptFax: where did you pick this up?
“….. try to avoid making win/loss predictions, and this campaign season is a prime example …..”
Meanwhile we predict the candidate with the most voteroonies will win. Teeeheee. Cause that is the rules.
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:45 am
Hynes and Brady.
Hynes has the momentum in this race and a higher favorable rating. He also has a TON of newspaper endorsements that I think will sway many undecideds.
Brady wins because the GOP side is anybody’s race. He is coming out with nice ads at the right time. He appears to have support from downstate and being a downstater, has the best chance at the undecideds south of I-80.
I could be wrong on the GOP side, but would bet money on the democratic side.
Comment by Richard Afflis Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:46 am
Quinn and McKenna.
They have money and organization support. McKenna won’t have the organization support in the general.
Comment by Angry Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:47 am
Hynes & Ryan
Hynes has the momentum (his Harold Washington ad is killer) and Jim Ryan not based on anything other than a hunch I have.
Comment by Stones Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:49 am
Quinn and Ryan. I’m guessing (will hardly be shocked if I’m wrong) Quinn because he’s the most “tax friendly” of the candidates and people with skin in the game (recipients of social services, unions - though Hynes is plenty union-friendly) will turn out. Ryan because of name recognition and more of a GOP insider. Also far from certain.
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:51 am
Hynes on the D-side.
The Dem primary is all about Turnout, GOTV and Field operations.
The turnout will be low, which means that whoever gets out Their voters, will win. Quinn has Zero GOTV/Field, never has (SEIU doesn’t seem to be doing much in the field for him?).
Hynes will win because of his better field operation (Chicago Wards, IEA & IFT).
Repub side…very fluid. Ryan with name ID will be a factor…Dillard surging could get their…McKenna maybe…toss up b/w those 3.
Comment by You Kidding Me? Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:53 am
Quinn because he has the machine to get his voters out.
Dillard is by far the best Rep candidate. I believe Rs do not want to give the nomination to another one who wants to buy an election (see: Blagojevich).
The Trib is just propping up daddy’s boy McKenna because of daddy’s ties to the Trib.
Comment by Joe from Joliet Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:55 am
I don’t know who will win on either side of the aisle. But, contrary to what others have written in support of Quinn and in opposition to hynes on the Washington ad, the inital impression that I am getting is that most black people are looking at the Washington ad and saying
“oh well, Quinn, Washington said it–he knew what he was talking about. get over it.”
i’m not seeing/hearing a whole lot of sympathy for Quinn.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:56 am
I wonder if Hynes would have gone with the Harold ad if he knew the very next the Trib poll was going to show him in a virtual dead heat. He released the ad as a knee-jerk reaction to Quinn cemetery attack piece and he might regret it if it creates an Election Day “blacklash.”
We’ll know 8 days from now, but we might look back at this Trib poll and think that Dan Hynes threw a Hail Mary pass when he didn’t have to.
Comment by frank booth Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 11:59 am
Rich, do you think Chicago ward machines will stay with Quinn? Those endorsements were made when he looked to be the near-certain winner. With Hynes knocking, do the organizations stand down or even flip?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:02 pm
I go with Dillard. He’s the only one who is acting like a statesman, staying positive while everyone else goes negative. Expect that everyone will go Nuclear on McKenna - So I see Dillard passing at the end.
Comment by SAKAMURA GREG Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:02 pm
Dillard. Dillard, Dillard
Comment by Salomen PIKE Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:03 pm
Just because people know who McKenna is - Doesn’t mean people are going to vote for him. Can you imagine if the ticket was McKenna, Kirk and Rutherford?
Comment by Sally Mae Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:05 pm
I couldn’t disagree more with you Frank.
The knock on Hynes has been that he is boring/lacks charisma and is cautious to a fault. When you run against a sitting governor in a primary, you can’t hold anything back. The Hynes team certainly knew this would dredge up Tom Hynes’ race against Washington, something they’d normally be loathe to do, yet they went for it anyway.
Hynes impressed me by going for it. Maybe what we’ll see in hindsight is that it was no Hail Mary pass, it was the knockout punch that sealed the deal. That’s how you close a race: with everything you’ve got.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:06 pm
Quinn, because the power of even his limited role as incubment lets him squeak by.
Dillard, because republicans want a winner and he has the best shot in November.
Comment by curious Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:06 pm
Anonymous, I don’t think captains mean much in top-of-the-ballot races.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:07 pm
===I wonder if Hynes would have gone with the Harold ad if he knew the very next the Trib poll was going to show him in a virtual dead heat.===
He had his own polling, and knew about other polling, including Quinn’s. Those results weren’t a surprise at all.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:08 pm
McKenna, his ads are now against his opponents, Ryan wanting to raise taxes previously and Dillard not ruling out tax increase.
Quinn, because he is the incumbant and he has another negative ad on Hynes that shows Hynes with a dumbfoundeded look on his face in a few different shots and more on the cemetery (Burr Oaks)
Comment by Third Generation Chicago Native Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:10 pm
Quinn on the Dem side because he and Hynes are so much the same on issues.
Adam on the GOP side.
Look for the GOP nobody is over 20%. And the regular politicians have name rec with Dillard now in the 80’s according to this site today. If they are well known and can’t break the 30% level that shows me the voters know who they are and don’t like them! If any of the big names were going to win they would have run away with this thing. That means Adam and Proft have a chance to win this. Adam’s campaign claims he is raising money from the Internet since the Brown race by the thousands a day. If that’s true, If, then he should be the winner in 8 days; he can go up and stay on TV and radio until the end. If he is not being truthful and does not go up full blast on the media Proft can claim Adam can’t be trusted and the undecideds will go his way. But with Lec coming in next week and paid media all over the state running Adam looks like he has a path to victory.
Comment by Votecounter Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:11 pm
Dillard if the republicans want to win this Fall. McKenna if the right wing of the party insists on maintaining the losing streak of the ideologically pure.
Hynes, busting the incompetent incumbent.
Comment by vole Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:12 pm
The Hail Mary meme is silly. Hynes was hammering Quinn on the prison fiasco. For weeks Quinn didn’t respond. Hynes had to know Quinn would counter, though, so (and here I speculate, since I don’t know their thinking) the Washington ad was socked away to counter the counter. By this line of thinking it was zero coincidence that the Washington spot hit the same day as the Burr Oak attack. And now Rich suggests that Hynes is holding a Quinn-loves-Rod spot to counter yet again. Basically, Quinn = checkers, Hynes = chess.
You have to hand it to Hynes, who seemed dead over the holidays. Now that looks more like a rope-a-dope. They figured voters weren’t paying attention, so why waste bullets and burn cash? You gotta peak at the right time - it’s the same strategy Obama used to snuff Hynes.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:15 pm
Quinn and Ryan
Because they are WINNERS!!! How many races have the HYnes family lost(Mayor, US Senator(both father and son), and now Governor. Ryan has won many elections at the state wide level and locally. winners win
Comment by FJ Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:20 pm
FJ, both Quinn and JRyan have lost high-profile races in the past. Quinn lost US Senate and SoS. JRyan lost the guv’s race.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:22 pm
Ryan, just released the infamous poll McKenna conducted on the R primaries while he was chair of the IRP, I’m sure he will make this into a major issue (which considering the ethical dilemma it creates, it very well should be) and it will hinder a good deal of the momentum McKenna has received recently. In turn, Ryan will receive the all-important late election surge via a now ever-increasing Republican electorate that is distrustful of McKenna. While Brady will preform well, especially downstate, that is the only place he will do well, as he will get pummeled in the city and the burbs. Dillard, will come in at a close third, and Edgar’s help will certainly be beneficial, but, in the end, the Obama piece he did will not be forgiven by most Rs and he will score a majority of moderates, but not enough, as taking the Rosser money was unbelievably dumb when branding yourself as a moderate candidate.
On a side note, his running mate Murphy, regardless of Andy winning or not may take the Lt. Gov nod, either him or Plummer depending on downstate turnout.
Moreover, I will be supporting Ryan in the primary. As a Northshore boy I feel like a bit of an outsider by not supporting the native-son, but Jim has the experience and skills to take out the Dem; whoever that may be. Take that as a personal endorsement, and take it however you would like.
On the Dem side…I think Hynes will pull it out. The Washington piece, while controversial, is going to lure a good deal of the Black vote his way, enough to give him a big late surge. While Quinn has his negatives, Hynes, in my opinion are better and will give him a distinct advantage. Furthermore, most intelligent Dems. will realize that Hynes is their best chance at taking out Ryan and they will vote with the man who has the, at least, semi-cleaner record.
Come November, I say:
Ryan: 53
Hynes: 47
(Not accounting for third party candidates, e.g., Greens etc.)
Comment by Anon Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:26 pm
Rich
But they won the BIG(AG, LT.GOV) race at one point in thier carrer. Man, its like the cubs not being able to win the world series. Some things are just chalked up to being lucky and unlucky.
Comment by FJ Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:29 pm
Quinn and McKenna.
I think the issue in Chicago is not as watched as folks might think. We see it but John and John Q voter doesn’t….so Quinn will squeak by that. The prison issue strikes home more, though I do think the Harold Washington “incompetent” point is spot on. Great ammo for the Republicans.
McKenna has money and will let loose a barrage. If he could only get rid of that “really, really weird” announcer I might be able to survive the next week of listening to them.
Comment by Justice Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:37 pm
“When they finally have to make up their minds, they’ll vote for the candidate with whom they are most familiar.”
Funny, but just this weekend I read another article, citing results of over 100 elections with a lot of undecided voters prior to Election Day, that said just the opposite — that if an incumbent is running, usually 70-80 percent of the late undecideds will break for the challenger. On the Dem side that means Hynes will win and I think he will, maybe just barely.
On the GOP side, there really isn’t any “incumbent” of course, but Ryan would be the closest thing to one, and his support is dropping. Still, money talks, and McKenna has it. He’s probably going to win, with Dillard and Ryan battling it out for 2nd. (Although how he can possibly win a GOP primary after what happened to the Illinois GOP on HIS watch stumps me.)
Comment by Secret Square Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:38 pm
Quinn & McKenna because they will get their names in front of the voters more. McKenna will use his money, and Quinn will use his power as Governor.
Comment by Pelon Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:44 pm
On the Democratic side my choice is Hynes - because I think he is what Illinois needs.
On the Republican side it’s s toss up b/w Mckenna and Ryan, however, Ryan will probably win - he has a good political record and career. Both Hynes and Ryan will win the primary.
Comment by mvs Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 12:45 pm
Hynes- his H. Washington ad is devastating and speaks to Quinn’s past and current abilities in office. He is spending a lot of money on an effective message.
McKenna- Solely based on money. His opponents can’t respond to his attacks. Ryan could pull it out if Dillard is badly hurt by the current Obama ad attacks and JR picks up that support. But McKenna has calibrated this race nicely.
Comment by HRH Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 1:11 pm
Quinn and Jim Ryan for the same reason, name recognition. Quinn edges Ryan 51/49 in the fall.
Comment by Niles Township Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 1:20 pm
Hynes wins-the competency issue knocks Quinn out.
Dillard wins GOP side with just over 20%-late undecideds will break with Dillard due to the Edgar support.
Comment by culatr Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 1:50 pm
Hynes because Quinn is a bafoon and Brady because I think he is a “dark horse” that may just have more support then is realized.
Comment by Dan S, a voter and Cubs Fan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:06 pm
Hynes and Dillard, though don’t quote me on that last one.
Hynes has grabbed the momentum with his ads and at least seems serious about addressing the budget/debt issues. Quinn has had a year to do something about it and has not. I think that will resonate, but it will be close.
On the GOP side, it is a 3-way race, but I think for some strange reason that Dillard squeaks it out. With all due respect to Jim Ryan, he’s been out of the game for years now and seeing him recently, voters can’t help but still be concerned about how his health will hold up. Still seems a bit frail to me. If it comes down to Dillard vs. McKenna, I think Dillard takes it by a nose on experience.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:07 pm
republicans I come to you as a friend….if you nominate someone who cannot easily/seamlessly transition from the right to center and you face-off with Hynes, you will lose in the fall.
Your best bets and safest in this race are Dillard or Ryan. Preferably Dillard.
While neither is a “right” as you may want, they do give you considerably more “rightness” than a Hynes or most certainly a Quinn.
keep in mind that you are in a decisive minority so far as political party in Illinois is concerned. You’re cannot win unless you appeal to voters outside of the GOP base. And we all know that the GOP base in tatters to start with.
Comment by Will County Woman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:25 pm
Hynes and Dillard.
Not enough time or money to get the SS Quinn righted after it hit (or got hit by) the iceberg.
Dillard wins on the strength of Jim Edgar, endorsements from the IL State Rifle Association and Illinois Education Assocition who actually turn out votes, and almost a dozen newspaper endorsements.
Dillard is clearly the best Republican candidate.
Comment by 4 percent Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:48 pm
Quinn and Dillard:
Quinn still has a name as reformer, though early release may have some impact on his margin, I don’t think it’s enough to completely derail him. The Washington ad by Hynes will lose impact as details of the circumstances will spread any damage thinner.
I lean toward Dillard because he has a good face (really), the ‘burbs like him, and he is MOR enough to draw lots of undecideds, though JRyan very well could dilute the vote for Dillard and give it to McKenna (way to hedge that answer, hunh?).
Comment by Captain Flume Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 2:55 pm
I think they’re both close races: Quinn-Hynes and Dillard-McKenna. I think Quinn and Dillard prevail partly because they have more institutional support. I don’t think Hynes has political talent: he got off to a good start in politics and stagnated; he was supposed to be the next Senator from Illinois, yet he trailed Hull and failed to capitalize when Hull fell from grace. Any Democrat ought to be able to beat Quinn one on one, but Hynes made no headway until recently. Democrats are likelier than Republicans to support the underdog, though.
Dillard has nothing going for him except saying “Jim Edgar, Jim Edgar” like some sort of sick parrot. In a free-for-all, however, that may be enough. McKenna was so unpopular as state chairman, it’s a miracle he’s polling twice what he was six years ago. He’s no fresh face next to Andrzejewski, but next to Ryan? He’s a rock star. An indie rock star.
Comment by T.J. Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 4:08 pm
I believe the democrat will be Quinn and the republican will be dillard. I also believe jason plummer will win the republican lt gov race.
Comment by ironman Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:16 pm
Quinn. I think Hynes has made up all of the ground that he can at this point, and Quinn will ride out the storm and back into the general election.
Dillard on the GOP side. I think McKenna will get some backlash with some negative ads directed towards him in the final week, and Dillard will slip through. He’ll then hope that Plummer gets through the LG primary, so he’ll have the necessary funds to win in November. Plummer is now outspending his opponents 10 to 1.
Comment by The Ripper Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:24 pm
McKenna has the backing behind his campaign and the money to keep it going. Not just repeating like a broken record that he was Jim Edgar’s campaign manager. Ryan has fallen off the campaign trail for the most part.
Quinn will win as the incumbent who plays the blame game with Hynes.
Comment by Ashland Courtland Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:31 pm
Dillard may seem positive and nice on the surface, that’s always been his shtick (learned from Edgar no doubt), but behind the scenes he’s trying to push others to push the dirt.
I just can’t stand the weasliness anymore. I’m not voting for Dan Proft either, but he is an example of a guy who at least is man enough to fight his own battles man to man, in the open.
Comment by ex Dillard supporter Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:33 pm
Pat Quinn - Incumbent, has the endorsements and enough $$$ to barely cross the finish line. This race got a lot closer then expected…time is on Quinn’s side because of the early primary..if it was held in March I’m not so sure he would be able to hold off Hynes.
Jim Ryan - Name ID, Name ID, having the suburban support of Schillerstrom, Birkett, and the Daily Herald, all helps in the GOP strong hold of DuPage. The large GOP turnout downstate is likely to be divided up and I believe Ryan wins by a wider margin then recent polling shows.
Comment by scoot Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 5:38 pm
Now that Adam has secured the endorsements of a former Polish President, a Montana State Rep, AND has nearly 200 precinct committeeman candidates behind his candidacy, I don’t see how he can not be Illinois’ Bobby Jindal.
Comment by AdamFan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 7:24 pm
Hynes will pull out the win. He will have better downstate support than many expect and the Washington ad will bring in the undecided. On the Repub side I think Dillard will win but hear a lot about Brady. I think his numbers are going to be stronger than the polls show. So, a Brady upset may happen if downstaters show up and vote.
Comment by illinois democrat Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 8:03 pm
Downstate will be the key to victory in the GOP Adam is the man in metro and southern Il. Big Polish vote in cook (2nd only to Warsaw) Lech will help that and the tea partyand Patriots who mostly are not in the hard R files so are missed by pollsters its wide open
Comment by Votecounter Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 8:19 pm
Is “AdamFan” serious, or am I just not catching his sarcasm…btw, there are not multiple States of Illinois, so I’m not quite sure how he can be “Illinois’ Bobby Jindal” (FYI: It would be Illinois’s, as Illinois would be in possession of a Jindal like figure. The GOP nod is going to Ryan. Adam whatever his name is, is a joke candidate…sorry to burst your bubble. BTW, this is Anon - 12:26.
Comment by Anon Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 8:30 pm
Anon-
What would I be sarcastic about? That Adam is getting support from around the world? That he is doing a money bomb this week to raise twenty-five THOUSAND dollars?
The grassroots are rising up for Adam. This time next year, Mike Madigan will be crawling on hands and knees to the Governor’s mansion.
Comment by AdamFan Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 8:58 pm
OK, AdamFan, enough.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 25, 10 @ 9:41 pm
Adamfan:
My sense is the IL political establishment of either party has little tolerance for grassroots conservatives. Look at IL GOP head Pat Brady’s (not gov candidate) “fringe” comment.
Comment by Peggy SO-IL Tuesday, Jan 26, 10 @ 8:55 am