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Question of the day

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Illinois

* What does your gut tell you today?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:46 am

Comments

Voted for Rauner.

Think Quinn will squeak it out.

Comment by Gus Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:47 am
Rauner will pull out a squeaker.

Comment by Andy Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:47 am
My gut says nationally it will be a huge win for Republicans. Will take senate majority very easily. Locally, Dold will defeat Schneider, and unfortunately the state as a whole is just too blue for Rauner to take home.

Comment by Anon1687 Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:48 am
Quinn by 3.

Comment by Politidork Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:48 am
My gut says I should’ve stayed away from the jalepenos last night. It’s only opinion on the election outcome is “dunno.”

Comment by Anonymoiis Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:49 am
No ketchup for the hot dog today.

Comment by Gerson Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am
Bad Day for Dems, if the election was a week earlier I think they would have pulled it out.
-I see Rauner and Cross declared winners early Wednesday morning.
-Schneider losing by at least five points.
-Davis wins by 8+

Comment by Almost the Weekend Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am
Voted for Rauner. Up until today thought Quinn would win. But after talking to voters think Rauner may barely pull it off.

Comment by DS Politico Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am
Quinn again by the slimmest of margins.

Comment by Griz Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am
Quinn’s going to win by an entire percentage point. Bold, I know. Crazy, probably. But hey, points for originality?

Comment by Empty Chair Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am
My gut tells me Topinka wins big.

Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am
That Stan’s donuts are too sugary.

Comment by Will Caskey Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am
Over this and the next elections, IL will find out if it has gone true blue or if 08 and 12 were just an Obama celebrity effect.

Comment by Carroll County Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:53 am
Wave election for R’s nationally and in IL. Rauner, Cross, Topinka all win. Senate R’s pick up a seat and House R’s pick up 4-6.

Comment by Hardwood Floors Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:53 am
Quinn 52, Rauner 48

Comment by Kerfuffle Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:54 am
I believe that Quinn will pull it out his union support in central and southern will be the difference

Comment by regular democrat Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:54 am
My gut says will be talking about the Dem’s GOTV effort tomorrow and marveling at how Rauner took a promising campaign and squandered it by not being ready for prime time.

Comment by pundent Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:55 am
My gut says Jesse White will win all but 1 county.

Comment by Casual Observer Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:55 am
Quinn will wish his $55 million bribe grant would have actually been more beneficial. To him on Election Day

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:56 am
Rauner will pull it out by less than .5% and Madigan will loose his super majority. Mike also win’s the treasurer’s race.

Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am
Downstate weather is ominous.

“Spanish Armada v. Elizabeth I” ominous.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am
My gut tells me I need more fiber in my diet.

AS for election results Quinn will win.

Quinn 48.5

Mitt Rauner 46.5

Grimmster 5

Nationally Dems hold the Senate by two with some help from some independent candidates winning.

or not.

Don’t bet the retirement funds on it.

Comment by IrishPirate Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am
I know for certain both Quinn and Rauner are very nervous. I don’t know what the outcome will be, but I think either the deep blue of Chicago or the Republican wave will be the deciding factor by a wide margin. My gut tells me the race will be called by 9PM.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:59 am
Quinn. Senate finishes 50 for Republicans and two runoffs, both to be won by Republicans leaving 52-48

Comment by Peoria Guy Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:59 am
Rauner by 3, Dold by 5, Davis by 10+

Comment by White Denim Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am
My gut is sad because we don’t have a choice of a real leader.

Comment by RetiredStateEmployee Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am
My guy tells me voters in this state are smart enough not to fall for the empty Carhartt that is Bruce Rauner. A plutocrat elected governor of IL? I don’t think so. Quinn wins in another squeaker.

Comment by Farker Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am
Quinn by more than folks expect. Bigger margin than Brady. Frerichs comes from behind to win. I also think Jesse White has a good chance.

Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am
Pitney Swope, write in candidate for Gov wins by a landslide. The “I Despise Pols” segment came out in force and changed things on massive scale.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:01 am
Gut tells me Davis gets 60%, Bell-Scherer go into OT, Bustos breaks 55%, Dold wins and it’s an early night, the house and senate stay the same, Bost also pulls it out by 2.

Comment by Modest proposal Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:01 am
My gut wants some bourbon to settle it down, is it noon yet?

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:02 am
Quinn by less than 2 (sigh)…

That Kiffowit/Bansal ends up much closer than anyone expects…

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am
From your lips to God’s ears, Farker.

Comment by Go Bears Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am
Quinn… barely

Comment by Bunson8r Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am
Rauner by 3, Dold by 7 and Bost by 8. GOP takes 9 in senate tonight and one race (LA) goes into runoff. GOP has 246 house seats, largest majority since 1920. Dem’s net 3 governor seats.

Comment by Ryan Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am
I’m thinking frerichs pulls this out, he spent a lot of money this last week.

Comment by Modest proposal Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am
Also my gut tells me if Rauner does pull it off a lot of you are going to lose your minds…

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am
bad day for Dems. and for my head.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am
Quinn wins. Worried about the Senate. Praying that Scott Walker gets his hat handed to him, but not optimistic. Watching Maine.

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am
It’s gonna be a fine day for the Republicans in Illinois and accross these great United States.

Comment by Beetlejuice Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am
It’s anybody’s ball game.

Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am
Quinn wins by 1-2%
Topinka wins big
Frerichs squeeks it out
Davis, Bustos, Foster, Bost, and Dold win their districts

Comment by NorthbyNorthWest Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am
Quinn winning by 4%
Frehrichs by 1%
Topinka by 20%
Enyart by less than 1/2%
Bustos by 15%
Republican Senate

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:06 am
Quinn, by a margin so slim that Rauner demands a recount.

Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:06 am
My info says turnout better now for Rauner but Quinn still has Union working hard

Comment by 19th Ward Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:06 am
I was reminding a lot of my state co-workers to vote. Many said they were voting for Rauner. The idea is he won’t do all those things to state workers and if he tried it wouldn’t get past the other politicians. Those closer to retirement said voting for Rauner because when they know they are in a position to vote for who they want. It is going to be very close folks. That being said I think I will have new boss soon.

Comment by Vote today! Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:08 am
Four more years of rudderless leadership, lurching from crisis to crisis, with no long-term plan and a General Assembly that routinely ignores the Governor. Incremental, almost accidental improvements in the economy combined with no real structural reform, a devastating setback on pensions by the Court, wasteful spending on ineffective programs, much higher taxes and further erosion of Illinois as a manufacturing hub.

Unless Chad Grimm wins. In that case, all of our problems will be solved. But if it’s Rauner or Quinn, look out Mississippi…

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:08 am
“Over this and the next elections, IL will find out if it has gone true blue or if 08 and 12 were just an Obama celebrity effect.”

There have been 23 statewide elections in Illinois this century and the Republicans have won 4 of them.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:09 am
Like Thompson/Stevenson, only Quinn is Thompson. BR will pay for a recount!

Comment by demgov Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:09 am
Quinn always be closin.

Comment by Brookport Brandon Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:09 am
We went Blue for Gore with 55%

Comment by demgov Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:11 am
Rauner by 150,000.

Comment by VPlena Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:12 am
Modest proposal - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:

I’m thinking frerichs pulls this out, he spent a lot of money this last week

“Frerichs pulls this out he spent a lot of Mike Madigans money last week”!!!

Comment by Downstate Greg Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:12 am
Quinn by 2
White, L. Madigan, Topinka-Big
Cross by 3
National
Repub take 50-49 with Kansas going I and caucusing with D gives them majority due to VP

Comment by mship1975 Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:12 am
Jesse White may squeak it out . . .

Comment by Nick Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:13 am
Rauner has nobody working polls. Quinn wins.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:13 am
Quinn by a squeak, or Rauner big (by at least 3)

Dold big. There is a message being sent to Washington and it ain’t good job boys.

Comment by allknowingmasterofracoondom Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:14 am
I know that Cap’n, but people keep noting that places like my namesake county, along with many other previously solid GOP areas, going Dem in 08 & 12 show that there was a fundamental shift in the entire state.

I think the jury is still out, and this Gov race wont tell much, with these 2 schmucks running, it will still be several cycles to know.

Comment by Carroll County Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:14 am
Huge VBM/EV boost in Lake County wins it for Rauner in a squeaker. You heard it here first.

Comment by Team America Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:15 am
Cross close. Rauner closer. Durbin, but by less than a 10% margin.

Comment by Bogey Golfer Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:16 am
Jim Oberweis heads to Florida to plan for his 2016 Senate bid.

Mixed bag in IL (NorthbyNorthWest seems to have it right IMHO). Bad night for Dems nationally.

Comment by bardo Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:18 am
Hoping Quinn wins by a large enough margin so that the billionaire boys club can give it a rest and not demand a recount, blowing millions more dragging things out for weeks on end. (What’s that margin and how long would a worst-case scenario recount take?)

Comment by Economic Justice Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:18 am
My gut is in turmoil. I’ll go with Rauner by 30,000 votes.

Other winners:
Jesse White
Tom Cross
Lisa Madigan
JBT
Mike Bost
Yingling survives, Sente does not

Comment by siriusly Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:19 am
Nationally, the Senate will be a Dem/Rep split.

Comment by Bogey Golfer Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:20 am
The trend will be clear by 9:00 PM and Quinn will be declared the winner by 11:00 PM.

Comment by (618) Democrat Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:20 am
Democrats will retain control of the IL Senate.

And because the IL GOP could sweep every contested state senate race this cycle and still not take control, this prediction is a lock.

Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:21 am
Toss up for Governor, we won’t know until tommoro

Jesse White, Madigan, JBT, tonight soon after close

Cross later tonight

Comment by 3rd Generation Chicago Native Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:23 am
Quinn by no more than the hairs on his head.

Comment by Anon III Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:24 am
Quinn 50
Rauner 45
Grimm 5

Cross bigger than people think.

R’s pick up a US House seat or two in IL

On a side note, the 2016 election starts today. Who runs against Kirk? (largely snark, I know people are sick of elections, so I thought I’d annoy people today).

Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:26 am
“What does your gut tell you today?”

To get back to making GOTV calls…

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:26 am
A Republican wave nationally, but it is possible that Illinois might reelected Patsy just to demonstrate that the Prairie State is completely out of touch with the rest of the nation.

Comment by Under Further Review Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:27 am
I expect it to come down to a finish so close the loser will demand a re-count and the Libertarian third-party vote will make the critical difference. Nationally, I’m guessing the Republican landslide turns out to be a ripple, but that may just be wishful thinking. Our system is desperately broken.

Comment by Newsclown Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:34 am
Rauner squeeks a win, Quinn may demand recount. Either way 47th is right. Same course with a feckless leader at the tiller either way.

Nationally R’s take 7 mcconel survives Roberts falls. We will all get to see how Obama works without a majority. Hopefully he’ll become more like Clinton and find the common ground to move the ball.

Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:34 am
Rauner by an eyelash.
Durbin gets low % in his victory.
Cross withstands late Frehrichs surge.
Dold wins.
Davis wins big, Callis in flames before splattering.
Bost knocks on door, might do it. Really close, Enyart retains edge.
Want Bobby to do it, but just do not see it. Hope I am wrong.
House: Sente, Conroy and Crespo really shaky, Goppers will win two, three, maybe more. Jim Durkin turns in GREAT first outing.
Illinois Senate: DK.
US Sen goes Gopper tonight: McConnell wins. Ak, Ar, Co, Ia, Mt, SD and WV follow.
AK may take time due to the bush, but it’ll go Red.
I think we lose Ks to Orman, but he caucuses with the Goppers to get seat on Ag (not the worst result).
If Ga and La don’t go D tonight, then they will go Red in runoffs. No question.
NC and NH, I think we get one, but we should get both. Scott Brown wins first, we’ll see about Tillis.
None of this means Goppers have the secret. Obama is over, but many bad campaigns were run. Voters are doing THEIR thing, not a Dem thing or a Gopper thing.
By tonight, on Channel 9, from 7 p.m., will have better sense of Illinois Senate. Join Clarence Page, Micah, Mark and me. Cheers + don’t forget to vote.
Oh yes, true joy: Scott Walker will pull it out.

Comment by Chris Robling Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:34 am
I’m still going to say Quinn, because of the recent polling. One poll I saw that was favorable for Quinn showed strong Rauner support in the collars but weaker Rauner support downstate.

That Illinois Observer poll showed Rauner doing well with African-Americans, but Quinn was still ahead. That poll may have overly favored Quinn in Cook County, and that could be in Rauner’s benefit.

Rauner can win if there is an underlying wave that the polls did not detect. Rauner would need to do very well in Chicago and Cook County, in my opinion, to catch that wave.

Plus, final polling aggregation results can be off in either direction, from what I seen. The final result sometimes is way off from the polling average. That could work against Quinn (see underlying wave).

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:36 am
My gut went from Rauner winning last week to Quinn Sunday night and now this morning I’m back with Rauner by 1-2 points.

Comment by Lunchbox Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:37 am
===Durbin gets low % in his victory.===

Try to sober up before you go on-air Chris.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:39 am
Quinn by 3. Thought from the get go if it were close at the end, Dems GOTV would be the difference.

There’s a dear price to pay for letting the GOP organizations wither over the years. No crying when you’re outhustled.

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:39 am
Tums, tums, tums…

My head hopes that Rauner loses if only to show that elections can’t be bought by rich people. My gut hopes my head is right.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am
Rauner 47.9
Quinn 46.1
Durbin, White, Lisa Madigan, and JBT win easily
Cross by 5

Comment by papak Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am
Rauner will do fine downstate, there is a lot of disdain for Quinn in central and southern IL.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am
So, even the people that think Cross is going to win think Frerichs is surging, my gut is in tune with them I guess…

Comment by modest proposal Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am
Rauner will win by a razor thin margin.

In 2010 I voted Quinn, this time Rauner. There are a lot of angry state workers still owed back pay and retirees are not really happy with the Governor and his continued support for SB1 and his insistence the bill is Constitutional.

Comment by Tsavo Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:41 am
Quinn, Dold and Barr-Topinka win in Illinois. Nationally the senate flips to R.

My question is, if Quinn wins… does that change anything with the Trib and Sun-Times? Would this lead to any re-shuffling? In the internet age, papers have lost a lot of influence… but in a close race like this they would be practically neutered if their endorsements had no effect. Would they need to up their reporting game to re-establish their readership and credibility? Not to suck up or anything, but I think there is a lot they could learn from this site and Rich Miller’s reporting. Browsing this site, you really feel more dialed in than you do reading either major paper.

Comment by porkbellies Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:42 am
Quinn by 80k votes, 68-50 (H) and 40-19 (S) Dem majorities in the Statehouse.

+5 seats for GOP in Congress, 51-49 Dems hold the Senate.

Comment by Mittuns Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:42 am
Bob Dold! wins by a whisker over Schneider all other house incumbents are reelected

Comment by papak Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:43 am
Gut tells me it’s getting close to lunch time. In a Republican wave, if Rauner loses a well funded campaign against an unpopular Quinn, it will tell us more about the candidate than the prevailing political winds, which overall will tilt the balance a little more to the R side statewide as well as nationally.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:45 am
My gut says Rauner by 1.5 and GOP control US Senate with 53 solid.

Just too much headwind against Dems, if a lot of folks turn out.

My gut is notoriously wrong.

If Quinn wins, props to a remarkably effective campaign.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:45 am
Quinn by 100,000 votes

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:47 am
Oh, and did I mention Chad Grimm? I honestly have no idea how Grimm will factor in this race, but it could be huge–huge as in a critical percentage point or two huge.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:51 am
Pat Quinn with 48.6% wins and claims a mandate for his programs of blaming Bruce Rauner for being wealthy. Republicans turn hard right in 2018 thinking Rauner was too moderate. Good luck Governor Raoul!

Comment by OurMagician Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:55 am
Rauner by 1 to 2%. Really haven’t seen much union support for Quinn!

Comment by walleyeb Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:56 am
Quinn squeaks out a close win, and the winner isn’t called until tomorrow morning.

Comment by AC Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:56 am
My gut tells me not enough voters will see through Rauner’s fake Carhartt and cheap watch image he’s trying to portray to stop him.

My faith in people says they will.

Comment by Finally Out (formerly Ready to Get Out) Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:59 am
“We accept without reservation, our obligation to help the aged, disabled and those unfortunates who, through no fault of their own, must depend on their fellow man.” - Saint Ronald Reagan

Comment by Del Clinkton Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:01 pm
My gut says thank God that’s over for 2 more years. Who wins? Not a clue.

Comment by Bruce (No not him) Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:05 pm
Since it’s lunch time, my gut says feed me…

Quinn, White, Madigan, Cross, JBT win. Republicans control the U.S. Senate with 52 seats.

Comment by Jay Dee Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:06 pm
My gut says Rauner, but after 2010, I don’t believe it anymore.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:16 pm
Don’t know. Only thought I’ve had is yesterday farmers were still harvesting, today it’s raining, they’ll vote

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:16 pm
With some trepidation, sticking with my original opinion, memorialized here https://capitolfax.com/2014/10/31/polling-averages-models-projections-etc/#comment-11651267 but originally made on Oct. 23 to friends - Quinn by 100k

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:17 pm
Long Night

Comment by One to the Dome Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:19 pm
My gut is telling me we won’t know the results of the governor’s race until tomorrow.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:20 pm
Third party candidates will do better than expected. Just my opinion.

Comment by Enviro Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:21 pm
Standing pat —

My prediction remains: Quinn 48.5, Rauner 47, Grimm 4.5.

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:33 pm
Oh, and I hate to say this, but Justice Karmeier is going down, I fear.

Comment by Chris Robling Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:35 pm
Urban blacks are staying home. Looks like Rauner will win.

Comment by ThatGirl Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:37 pm
My gut tells me:

–Quinn by 1
–Cross/Frerichs not decided until at least tomorrow (maybe even a recount)
–White, Madigan, Durbin, JBT easily
–The ballot questions (including minimum wage and the millionaires’ tax) all pass and will go to die in the GA.
–The 5% tax rate is either made permanent or given another 1-4 year extension. But that will not be decided until shortly after midnight Jan. 14. Regardless, Quinn will still propose making further budget cuts and may trot out the “doomsday budget” again for FY16, this time based on if the Supremes overturn pension reform.
–AFSCME will be back to booing Quinn next August at the State Fair.

That’s some of what my gut is telling me at this time.

Comment by Leatherneck Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:40 pm
Waterloo.
Waterloo for the Republicans in our State.
Waterloo for the Democrats nationally.

If only Oberweis succeeded in politics like he succeeded with Black Cherry Ice Cream…

Comment by Jake From Elwood Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:48 pm
- ThatGirl - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

Urban blacks are staying home. Looks like Rauner will win.——

What? Please explain?

Comment by Try-4-Truth Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:58 pm
Gut also tells me that in Quinn does not win, a whole lot of people start getting jobs at IDOT tomorrow…

Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:07 pm
My gut tells me, Johnson & Johnson the makers of Tylenol, will be the big winner here as many of us will have a headache for some time no matter who wins.

Comment by No Longer A Lurker Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:08 pm
PQ by a whisker. R’s take control of the US Senate.

Comment by Stones Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:11 pm
I’m a Downstate Dem. Bad weather all day and apparent voter intimidation in EStL, but here goes.

Quinn by the smallest of margins state-wide and Enyart the same. JBT almost certain with Frierichs very close win.

Biggest race in this area is the Karmeier retention - very good man whose reputation has been trashed in the past 2 weeks. Half truths, innuendo and Millions of Dollars could well change our Judiciary for years to come - very disturbing. Karmeier will not be retained.

Comment by illini Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:18 pm
Judy Barr and Jesse are safe. But, we’ve had one doofus or another as governor for 12-years. Ilinois is doofus territory; Quinn again, just ahead of the 1st state bankruptcy. I know, they’ll have to change the law.

Comment by Keyser Soze Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:24 pm
My gut tells me that I’m getting too old for this.

I’m concerned that Rauner might win; I hear too many people saying they’re voting for him because Quinn didn’t do enough fast enough.

Comment by Stuff Happens Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:32 pm
Pat Quinn wins by a hair. Bruce Rauner throws a major fit. About the time of the inauguration, Bruce will be just a fading memory.

Comment by Cheswick Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:32 pm
Frehrichs/Cross will wind up being a bit closer than Rauner/Quinn.

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:38 pm
Illinois loses.

Comment by One of the 35 Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:39 pm
Rauner wins. Quinn shouldn’t have won in 2010 but for the now disenchanted Obama coalition.

Comment by Mo Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:47 pm
That the Cubs will better than the Sox in 2015. And Governor Rauner will throw out the first ball at the home opener at a new refurbished Wrigley in April!

Comment by Mr.Big Trouble Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:50 pm
Too close to call by the end of the night
A recount that lands in favor of Quinn by a margin
Topinka wins
Durbin wins
Cross wins

Comment by 47th ward mom Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:51 pm
Quinn by 2%,Frerichs by 4%,GOP only nets one house seat and a crapstorm ensues. Nationally the GOP picks up the Senate 52-48 and about 5 house seats

Comment by K3 Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:55 pm
My gut tells me not to watch the boob tube today,read the paper tomorrow because little will change in Illinois regardless of who gets elected And of course,VOTE. Then to the closest sports bar

Comment by Ed Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:05 pm
Rauner by 2%. Nationally Senate taken over by GOP by 51-49. Time for Mourning in America and Illinois.

Comment by Lovecraft Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:10 pm
Kirk Dillard will once again haunt the Republicans.

Comment by Buzzie Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:22 pm
PQ by 2.5.

Comment by Original Rambler Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:23 pm
If this holds Rauner by 3%
Jim Allen w/City election board:”I don’t anticipate we’re going to be anywhere near 53 percent” in Chicago.
Huge blow to Dems#Election2014

Comment by walleyeb Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:59 pm
Rauner surprises everyone, wins by +5%.

Comment by State Worker #1983 Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 3:56 pm
My gut was ill after I voted. I stood there for the longest time and looked at the gubernatorial race. I had sworn all along I would vote for Rauner to break the Dem monopoly of power in Illinois government. But I couldn’t do it. I wrote in Adlai Stevenson. I couldn’t possibly vote for four more years of Quinn; and I accept that Rauner is an amoral plutocrat, but his plans and his motives are just too murky. And he disgusts me. So there you are, I “threw my vote away.”

Comment by Excessively Rabid Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 4:49 pm
Stand by original prediction. Quinn by a slim margin, but we won’t know until Thursday of Friday. The Gov position will show something like a 10% - 12% under vote due to people who wanted to vote against Rauner but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Grimm or Quinn.

Durbin will win, but by less than expected.

Lisa Madigan may win but it’s going to be close.

Nationally, things mostly shift to the GOP. Quinn’s winning here will be seen as the exception to a GOP mini-wave.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 6:11 pm
And now my gut is telling me it’s time to find some food before heading over to the winning Sangamon County Sheriff’s party.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 6:13 pm
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am:

Downstate weather is ominous.

“Spanish Armada v. Elizabeth I” ominous.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

.
… and then the sun came out and Quinn lost. Seems I was correct about lack of urban black turnout and the whole ‘Quinn in the bunker issuing orders to phantom supporters’ thing !

Comment by ThatGirl Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 7:04 pm

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Reader comments closed for the weekend (04-26)
Isabel’s afternoon briefing (04-26)
Things that make you go 'Hmm' (04-26)
Did Dan Proft’s independent expenditure PAC illegally coordinate with Bailey's campaign? The case will go before the Illinois Elections Board next week (04-26)
PJM's massive fail (04-26)
$117.7B In Economic Activity: Illinois Hospitals Are Essential To Communities And Families (04-26)
It’s just a bill (04-26)
Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work (04-26)
Open thread (04-26)
Isabel’s morning briefing (04-26)