Polling averages, models, projections, etc.
Friday, Oct 31, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Huffington Post…
* Real Clear Politics…
* Talking Points Memo…
* Bing.com…
* USA Today…
* ElectionProjection.com…
* 270toWin.com…
* More from Sabato…
That brings us to the seven Toss-ups. Because we now expect overtime in Georgia, we are calling that race a Toss-up, but at the end of the day it would be surprising if the Democrats ultimately won that seat. Also, and while we are keeping these races as Toss-ups in our ratings, it appears that Govs. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Pat Quinn (D-IL) have stabilized their positions, and they seem to have better than even odds to win second, full terms. So that’s three of the seven Toss-ups where we think the incumbent party is positioned to hold on, though we have not made picks yet and we reserve the right to change our minds before the end. Sen. Mark Udall’s (D-CO) seeming decline, in particular, could really hurt Hickenlooper.
Gut feeling?
- ??? - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:32 am:
Gut feeling? Quinn.
- MrJM - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:32 am:
“Gut feeling?”
Ulcer.
– MrJM
- phocion - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:32 am:
Gut tells me Quinn wins.
- Just Observing - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:32 am:
My gut feeling: Rauner wins by a hair. I think the electorate isn’t all that keen on Quinn or Rauner, but at the end of the day, a majority of voters have or are gonna roll the dice on Rauner figuring he can’t be any worse than what we’ve had and that someone/something new is in order.
- 2 Cents... - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:32 am:
Rauner’s to lose…hoping for Quinn to squeak it out and to see the look on Rauner’s face when he realizes he just spent over $26 million of his own money on his ego!
- B - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:33 am:
What is the bing prediction based on? I don’t understand it.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:33 am:
Quinn.
The race has become a choice between three candidates.
For Rauner, he needs it to be a referendum on Quinn.
I don’t think he has succeeded there.
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:33 am:
Late night, but my gut says Quinn’s charmed political life finally runs out.
- Bill White - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:34 am:
Gut feeling?
Quinn
I think Eric Zorn offers a solid explanation why.
Change, merely for the sake of change, is not prudent. We can slog along with Quinn or drive off a cliff with Rauner.
I think this line of reasoning will resonate with undecided voters (or voters who have last second qualms about Rauner after telling pollsters for weeks or months that they were voting for Rauner).
- Anon - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:35 am:
Quinn holds, in the end its a flawed dem vs a flawed GOP in a pretty blue state…
- OneMan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:36 am:
If I had to bet $5 today, I would say Quinn but I would be happy to lose $5
- So IL M - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:36 am:
Quinn. Gut says Rauner will lack on gotv where Quinn wont.
- Yoohoo - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:38 am:
Rauner.
My bet is Rauner squeaks it out. Quinn ground game may not be enough and the moderate suburban women have no real GOP fear this time around.
- admin - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:38 am:
Quinn. GOTV. Aggravating Rauner robocalls. Dead grandmas strewn along his sidewalk.
- LincolnLounger - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:39 am:
Quinn in a squaker and, interestingly enough, because of downstate. Rauner will perform significantly better than Brady in Chicago and suburban Cook, but Rauner will perform terribly downstate due to voters staying home, teachers voting for Quinn, and an organized union effort.
- Jack O'Lantern - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:39 am:
My gut is that Quinn has a slight lead, but I think some of the Libertarians move to Rauner rather than waste a vote, and a rainy day Tuesday not ideal for the big turnout effort.
I don’t have a gut feeling on whether that’s enough for Rauner.
- Peoria Guy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:39 am:
I suspect Quinn, but Rauner has a pretty big GOTV ground game.
- Aldyth - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:39 am:
Quinn, by the skin of his teeth.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:39 am:
MrJM - good one.
Oswego Willy takes advantage of the historic dislike for the major party candidates and surprises all by winning a massive write-in vote for Governor.
- Empty Suit - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:39 am:
Gut feeling - Indigestion
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:41 am:
If I misread the tea leaves, Quinn seems to have succeeded in educating enough folks about the risks of Raunervich.
- Soccermom - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:42 am:
Quinn 48.5, Rauner 47, Grimm 4.5.
- Cassiopeia - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:42 am:
Rauner. The Dem GOTV push will come up short.
- lake county democrat - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:43 am:
Gut says Quinn - labor is turning out and I don’t feel the same enthusiasm elsewhere. If Rauner wins it’s because Rahm is doing more behind the scenes than anyone realizes and city/Cook numbers aren’t as overwhelming for Quinn as they should be.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:43 am:
Quinn in a squeaker. But that’s the only way he was going to win, anyway.
Rauner had a chance to knock him out in the summer and chose not to. Grimm and Quinn’s proven GOTV will be the difference.
One of these days, the Hopeless 98 County Romantics will realize that the most GOP votes, and the most potential new GOP votes, by far, are in Cook County.
It might be a good idea to do some party building there and, you know, occasionally contest a county race.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:43 am:
Quinn has succeeded in making the race a referendum on Rauner’s fitness for office, when it was supposed to be a referendum on his own leadership.
- downstatedowner - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:44 am:
Quinn by 3.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:44 am:
“I defer all polling questions and models to - Norseman -, and the campaign. Thank you.”
To the Post,
“Gut?”
Quinn/Rauner/Grimm
48/45/7 - +/- 1%, so Quinn “covers”
Why?
GOTV, same day voting, ballot initiatives, “Blue” DuPage County, Callis/Jacobs RI Co GOTV vs. Rauner/ Dold GOTV Lake Co., Unions, Personal PAC, statewide coordination… controlling and understanding what real “Pluses” are, not dragging out “Minuses”…
- Commonsense in Illinois - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:44 am:
Quinn by six.
- Moderate Repub - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:46 am:
Quinn
Grim will be the spoiler.
- chi - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:47 am:
Quinn-
Broadly, polls have undercounted the Dem vote in 2010 and 2012, and I imagine Tuesday will show they did it this year too.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:48 am:
===Gut feeling?===
Reminds me of Goldwater, 1964: In your hearts, you know he’s right. Followed by the classic retort: In your guts, you know he’s nuts.
My gut says Quinn, but it’ll be closer than a tick to a dog’s behind. My gut also tells me I’ll go to bed sometime early Wednesday morning and still not know who won.
- Casual Observer - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:49 am:
Gut feeling? Quinn thanks to union turnout but Rauner won’t make it easy. I think Rauner’s lawyers will be very aggressive in bleeding every penny they can get from him. And if that gets him votes or takes away votes from Quinn, he’ll be happy to pay.
- gesquire - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:50 am:
Quinn The anti -Quinn vote is not that strong. We’ll know three hours after the polls close.
- North Shore Joe - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:54 am:
Low Democratic turnout gives it to Rauner.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:54 am:
My gut right now is Quinn, whom I initially picked to win, but with great trepidation.
In the current Huffpost polling from the right side of this page, Quinn is up by a few.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-illinois-governor-rauner-vs-quinn#!mindate=2014-04-01&estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=chicago-tribune
Thankfully, at least as far as this page goes, Huffpost is not including the goofy Sun-Times poll. Real Clear Politics is using the poll and has Quinn up by a hair.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:54 am:
I am a die hard Dem but my gut just says Rauner. I am hearing the Quinn GOTV effort has some real serious problems.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:55 am:
Gut?
Democrat GOTV fails. My Democratic voter friends have convinced me that they sincerely will not be voting at all. I prodded them unbelieving, and they seem very real about it. They won’t vote for Quinn. I’ve even hinted around testing them. They’ve convinced me they will not vote Tuesday. These are Democrats. AFSCME. Not voting.
Wow.
But then there is 2010.
I think Democrats in Chicagoland have guts telling them Quinn, but their counterparts elsewhere have guts telling them otherwise, and they are denying it and saying Quinn.
After seeing what happened with Raunerlike governors in Florida and Wisconsin, I’m not hopeful. After seeing what happened with Blagojevich and Quinn here, I’m not hopeful.
I honestly hate both of them.
- Soccermom - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:55 am:
VMan, if you have some time today, I would love to see some new lyrics to “96 Tears”, to be titled “98 Counties.”
We can keep
“You’re gonna cry, cry cry cry now
You’re gonna cry, cry, cry, cry”
- Trstmay - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:55 am:
Chicago will have a big turnout next Tuesday and Quinn will win by a nose.
- Bluefish - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:56 am:
I still say Quinn by 2.
BTW - Nice job by @StatehouseChick in yesterday’s Tribune convincing me not to throw away my protest vote on Grimm. Adds one more vote to the Quinn column.
- Cook County Commoner - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:56 am:
Quinn. No gut feeling needed. My scientific Dog Walk Poll conducted over 2 miles (about 100 homes) this morning saw only one lawn sign: Quinn. No Rauner excitement.
- South of Sherman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:56 am:
Quinn, in a 2010-style, carry-only-three-counties, handful-of-votes-per-precinct squeaker
- Langhorne - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:57 am:
Quinn by a wispy little hair. Quinn has been landing body shots w his ads vs rauner. They may not make you like quinn, but they drag rauner down.
At the start, this was rauners to lose, and he has been doing a good job of giving people reasons to not like him. The main reason for voting for rauner is he is not quinn. That is legit as a starting point, but his “plans” are bunk and DOA. Term limits. Tax freeze. Right to work zones. 401(k)’s. Min wage. Consolidation of local govts. It is telling that none of the usual public policy groups have lined up behind rauner. The guy who is going to govern w superstars has yet to ID any experts on his team.
It is disconcerting that so many papers have bought into his sales pitch.
- 2 Cents... - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:58 am:
And to add a little more angina to Rauner’s cold heart…he will have wasted additional dollars on his HRO investment (Uhlein and Proft too). I predict HRO picks up a net gain of no more than 3-4 seats nowhere close to the 6 they and crazy McSweeney are predicting.
- Because I said so..... - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:58 am:
Quinn will cross the finish line by a hair. I hope it’s not just wishful thinking.
- Secret Square - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Correction: the less than 1 percent margin didn’t happen in 2006 but the “slightly more will vote against the incumbent than for him” phenomenon will occur again.
- Politidork - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Quinn and I don’t think it will be that close. Rauner doesn’t inspire the people on his side to vote, but he scares the left and gets them out. Quinn 49.5 Rauner 46.5 Grimm 4
- Keyser Soze - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:59 am:
The affable but incompetent Homer Simpson versus the evil robber baron Mr. Burns. The gut says that Simpson will win by a nose on the likability factor. He’ll get Marge’s vote.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:59 am:
“I honestly hate both of them.”
Well, it’s nice to have hobbies to get you through the day.
- Illannoyed - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:00 am:
The race appears close (no revelation there), but I hesitate to make a prediction because I’m unsure about the Rauner/GOP GOTV program. In past elections it was a safe bet to assume that the Dems would have a vastly superior ground game. I have heard that the Rauner campaign has made a concerted effort to invest in and build a solid turnout program this cycle. Not only has Rauner invested heavily in his own campaign, but he has provided substantial financial resources to strengthen the state party. It may be effective, it may not be. We won’t really know until Tuesday. Hence my equivocation! I will add that, if Rauner wins, a surprisingly strong GOP ground game may be the story for several days following the election. Both campaigns have been pushing early voting, and the numbers are certainly up. But a key consideration is whether these are new voters, or if the parties are cannibalizing their election day turnout by having them vote early. Once again, we’ll find out Tuesday.
- FormerParatrooper - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:01 am:
I say Quinn,by a slim margin. And I predict there will be a recount if it as small of margin I think it will be because neither side will accept a loss.
- anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Quinn, and by more than a hair.
- Bobbysox - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:02 am:
Exact tie. Followed by a coin flip. Rauner drives down, kicks a field goal. Quinn comes back, driving down the field. It’s 4th and goal at the one yard line and –
Sorry I have to answer the phone. Can’t miss another robocall.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:03 am:
I’m comfortable saying it will be a huge GOP election day across the country, and even in other races in Illinois.
But governor?
(sigh)
Rauner
I think Illinoisans are willing to risk what we have than continue watching it ebb out as it has under Blagojevich and Quinn.
Whatever happens Tuesday is because with most of the freaking control over our state government, Illinois Democrats have just flat out used up everyone’s patience with their incompetence and corruption.
They meant well and spoke nobly, but they stunk at governing.
- Been There - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:04 am:
Gut says Quinn.
My nightmares keep showing Rauner.
But I agree with Rich that I am not going to be surprised if either win.
I also agree with Soccermom’s percentages except Grimm will get a little less with write in votes for Mickey Mouse or other picking up a point.
- anonymoose - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:05 am:
Rauner 47
Quinn 46
Grimm 7 (Grimm pulls unhappy undecided voters from both candidates equally).
Does anyone have the secret sauce to polling in 2014. I’ve given up my landline and not received a single call polling. I’m registered and a likely voter - I early voted.
- Stones - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:07 am:
I’ll say Quinn in the 2nd closest gubernatorial race in Illinois history. The closest was Thompson / Stevenson in ‘82 - 5,000 votes.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:08 am:
My gut feeling is that the Illinois election will be called relatively early for Pat Quinn and the [national media] attention will shift to other races in other states.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:08 am:
===but they stunk at governing===
And you work for the state, so you’d know exactly how badly your department is managed.
- siriusly - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:08 am:
I think the early voting turnout should be the real indicator at this point. Don’t know why we haven’t seen any predictions based on that.
Rauner fell way off from the polling in the primary and I think he will do the same on Tuesday. Quinn by 3-5%
- garlic bread - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:10 am:
My gut told me Rauner was gonna win the primary by way way more than 2%.
Quinn. Unions, GOTV, teachers.
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:13 am:
Will Libertarian candidate break 5%?
That’s kinda a big deal that will make it much easier for Libertarians to file as candidates in the 2016 & 2018 election cycles.
- The Captain - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:14 am:
I’d like to go drinking with the Bing.com projection model.
- Millie K. - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:14 am:
Union is useless for the workers in Southern Illinois…..Quinn has closed four facilities in the south, ….. the prison in Centralia will be next, and the union will do nothing….except keep their positions safe in Chicago…..why union workers pay dues in southern Illinois is a puzzle to me……………they are keeping their cushy jobs safe, and who cares about the common worker…….
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:14 am:
Willy in a close one. The write in prevails
- dupage dan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:15 am:
I predict snow in Chicago today.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:15 am:
From Crain’s:
Pre-election voting soars above 2010 in the city, suburban Cook
“According to strategist Pete Giangreco, who handled the state Democratic Party’s vote-by-mail program, Mr. Quinn so far may have picked up an additional 40,000 votes or so just in the Chicago area.”
- B - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:15 am:
Rauner’s GOTV will exceed expectations. Plus it will rain on Election Day and that’s good for Republicans.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:16 am:
My gut tells me that Rauner and Cross will both win - and will each win by less than a point. Leader Radogno adds one seat (36th). Leader Durkin adds a few seats and climbs out of the super minority. Sorry - no specifics on that since I follow national stuff a bit more. Justice Karmeier is easily retained with 70% of the vote. IL-10 and IL-12 flip. IL-11, IL-13 and IL-17 remain the same. Marcy’s Law and the rest of the re
- Snucka - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:16 am:
Are there any numbers available on Chicago early voting? I know suburban Cook is up, but the Chicago BoE doesn’t seem to release totals until early voting ends.
- Steve - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:17 am:
Gut feeling…. Rauner wins by less than 2000 votes. Also my gut feeling… taxes are going up no matter who wins in Illinois.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:17 am:
I once felt like Quinn peaked a few weeks ago and that Rauner was clawing back for the win, but given the Rauner campaign’s curious decisions and complete lack of message discipline the past week or so, I feel like they know something they’re not letting on to.
Quinn wins, and maybe not as close as folks are thinking, somewhere in the neighborhood of 100k votes.
- Mouthy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:18 am:
I’m guessing Quinn simply because Rauner just doesn’t come across as very likable…
- circularfiringsquad - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:18 am:
PQ Wins…Again
Mitt post biggest, most expensive failure in American political history. He must be ready to put the noose around his neck ’cause he reportedly doing radio —- that’s AM radio — for state rep candidate who is running behind.
More money poorly spent
Mitt proves he is totally unsuitable for this office.
Fire, Aim Ready!
- Very Fed Up - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:19 am:
Hard to imagine Rauner actually winning. Despite having almost nothing positive to run on there is just too large a base of automatic democrat voters in this state.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:19 am:
And you work for the state, so you’d know exactly how badly your department is managed.
You know, there is a big difference between governing and managing. Well, at least I do. State workers in Illinois are outstanding. We’ve kept the lights on while the last three clown governors tried to either rob us for their own personal enrichment, or were prevented from doing more damage by Michael J. Madigan.
Our problem isn’t managing. Thank you very much.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:20 am:
B, I don’t know the Bing formula. Nate Silver has a complex probability formula that’s been highly accurate.
The weirdest one I’ve seen is from the Washington Post. They have both Schneider and Bost at 93 percent likely winners. I can’t for the life of me figure out how you can rate either one of their races as near sure things.
- Responsa - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:21 am:
Gut is Rauner by only the closest of margins.
It’s so hard to predict because we all can’t help but see things from the lens of where we are geographically in IL. For reasons unrelated to politics I spent a lot of time out in “the field” yesterday in both the 9th and 10th districts– well down into the city into Schakowsky territory, as far west as DesPlaines, and as far north as Libertyville. The Rauner signs in yards and businesses outnumbered Quinn in a major obvious way. Now, I know yard signs don’t predict actual votes. But I do believe there is symbolic energy that can be gathered or intuited from them. And I think I recall there being many more Quinn signs in these areas in 2010. He needs to at least hold his own in these areas to win this one.
- Mouthy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:22 am:
Our problem isn’t managing. Thank you very much.
Are you kidding? Do you have any idea how much waste there is? I do and it will take your breath away..
- Lunchbox - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:23 am:
I think Rauner will pull it out with a higher than expected margin, somewhere around 51-45-4. He’s going to do a better job of getting voters to the polls than Brady.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:25 am:
Someone mentioned earlier that it’s crazy to think the House GOP can add 6 seats. Why? I think it’s entirely possible. Tom Cross netted 6 seats in 2010 and he had way less money to play with (and, IMHO, less competent staff/advisers). Building a party means stretching out your tentacles and taking risks. A lot of people on here want to throw Rauner under the bus for giving money to the ILGOP and HRO, but in order for him to do ANYTHING if he becomes governor he has to have allies. Operations like the ILGOP and HRO need money. You can only get by on blood, sweat and tears before you collapse.
- East Central Illinois - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:25 am:
Quinn 48%, Rauner 48%, Grimm 4%
A virtual tie, the issue goes to the courts, Rauner buys the judges off, but it’s not found out until 2015 around July, Rauner goes to jail - - another one bites the dust.
- Demoralized - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:27 am:
==Do you have any idea how much waste there is?==
Sure there is. There is everywhere. But it’s small potatoes and it’s not a budget fix.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:28 am:
Gut - images of Quinn being Quinn, pushing his own lawn mower, standing with grieving military families, going to Washington, IL after the storm feel better than Bruce’s wearing regular guy costumes
- Anon - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:28 am:
==Team Sleep==
That was 6 seats in the best possible situation the GOP has been in since the 90s…2014 isn’t that…I think maybe 2 seats…I between 1 and -1 in the senate for the ILGOP…
- Veritas - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:29 am:
Rauner by bigger than expected margin. Maybe we don’t know what we are going to get with Rauner, but we know what we have had with Quinn!! Can someone please put me in contact with bing.com
I’ll take those odds for a few quid.
- Fayette County - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:30 am:
Quinn by a hair. The Chicago vote and better than expected downstate numbers carry him across the finish line. I also predict Karmier loses his seat by a very slim margin. He comes just short of the 60% needed for retention.
- Western Ave. Doug - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:30 am:
As a biased Rauner supporter, my gut tells me to forgive Oswego Willy after the election. Then when we go fishing and he says his Hail Marys, all family business will be settled.
- PC - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:31 am:
I disagree that the teachers and state employees are a automatic vote for Quinn and the Democrats especially after they demonized them the past two years over pensions and health care. Passed what have been ruled and soon be ruled unconstitutional bills, took money from their monthly retirements and continued to take out until this month (healthcare). Don’t see the support there for Quinn as the court ruling will prevent Rauner from touching their retirements and benefits
- Carhart Representative - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:32 am:
I think it’ll be Quinn by a very small margin, but I think if Quinn loses, it’ll be in part because of choosing Vallas for the Lt. Governor. Had he gone with Neely it might have helped keep Rauner from any inroads in the black community, while the Vallas pick was the final straw for a lot of teachers who were already mad about pensions and that was a group that really helped swing things for Quinn at the end last time.
- Carhart Representative - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:34 am:
PC, I think that the teachers will not vote for Rauner, that’s for sure. However, they might just not vote or vote for Grimes.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:34 am:
- Western Ave. Doug -,
I personally worry for my well-being…
As much as I worry about ketchup on a hot dog.
One of the “three” of us is going to win, the other two never got vote.
LG Slip and Sue is a good consolation prize for me.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:34 am:
Anon 11:28 -
Perhaps. But even though we aren’t likely to win five Congressional seats and a U.S. Senate seat, we have a better gubernatorial candidate who is pumping money into plenty of races and helping out the party. That was sorely needed.
- Del Clinkton - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:35 am:
Quinn, assuming there is no voter fraud among Rauner voters.
- Del Clinkton - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:37 am:
A lot of waste in Medicaid Nursing Homes, making Bruce a rich guy.
- DuPage Dave - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:37 am:
In my part of DuPage County there are very few yard signs in residential areas for either Quinn or Rauner. The signs on business properties are all for Rauner, but there are not that many of those.
My gut says Rauner 49 Quinn 47. Not sure why those numbers but they popped into my head yesterday.
And Stone- in 1982 it was Thompson by 5,074 votes. I’ll never forget that number.
- Louis G Atsaves - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:38 am:
Too many polls. Too many ways pollsters practice their craft. Averaging poll results doesn’t turn me on. So I am looking elsewhere for a “gut” reaction:
In over a quarter century, I have seen GOP grass roots election activities at its best and at its worst. Two years ago it was practically nonexistent. In my Lake County, it was simply an edict: “Go knock on doors!” Few did. It showed.
This year seems to be best ever, with a strong degree of sophistication and training, a long overdue push for early voting and mail ballots, at least in my county and in the North Shore. Couple that with a huge number of young volunteers that really didn’t exist much on the GOP side in the past. They made me feel old and energized me at the same time. God bless them all! Social media presence vastly improved. The huge money spent was well-invested in these areas.
Rauner +2, Dold +3.5. 4 Illnois House pickups. Keep Comptroller and Treasurer in GOP column. Oberweis/Durbin a little tighter than expected.
Long overdue return of the two-party system in Illinois.
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:43 am:
Louis - good points on two years ago.
I will say this. I spent a decent amount of time around the Karmeier campaign in 2004. Other than the RNC Victory Campaign of 2010, I had never seen such a coordinated effort. The state party, the Senate GOP, the HRO and even Congressional campaigns pitched in to help Karmeier. It showed two-fold (electing Karmeier and knocking Maag off the Appellate Court).
- Team Sleep - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:43 am:
Sorry…I should’ve wrapped up my 11:43 post by noting that I see shades of the Karmeier efforts in what Rauner is trying to do.
- tominchicago - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:48 am:
My gut is telling me that the Bing poll probably has a huge margin of error.
- foster brooks - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:53 am:
Many a state worker like rauner. Dumbest thing I ever heard but I’ll go with baron carhart by a hair.
- Meanderthal - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:55 am:
Rauner beats Quinn by two points 48-46. I know lots of Democrats who are voting for Rauner and I believe that will be a trend. Rauner has also put together a good presence in places Republicans seem to have written off in recent cycles like North Shore & OP/RF.
- pundent - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:57 am:
Gut says Quinn. At the end of the day this will come down to the respective organizations and the reality is that the Republican GOTV organization is simply not as strong as their Democrat counterparts. The advisory initiatives on the ballot are a great example of that. Not stating a personal preference, just the facts as I see them.
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:59 am:
Quinn by 15,000 votes. Downstate is not going to show up for Rauner. Resulting in reelections for Bustos, Enyart.
- chiatty - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:05 pm:
Quinn by a couple points. The vaunted Rauner GOTV is probably a lot of baloney and the $63 million in Rauner ads will help stimulate a good turnout by Democrats.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:05 pm:
=== Our problem isn’t managing. Thank you very much.
Are you kidding? Do you have any idea how much waste there is? I do and it will take your breath away.. ===
Mouthy, Rich’s email can be accessed at the top of this blog. I’m sure he would be interested in your breathtaking list.
- Educator - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:09 pm:
~~- PC - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 11:31 am:
I disagree that the teachers and state employees are a automatic vote for Quinn and the Democrats especially after they demonized them the past two years over pensions and health care….Don’t see the support there for Quinn as the court ruling will prevent Rauner from touching their retirements and benefits~~
Don’t bet on it PC. I’m *angry* with Quinn, but Rauner’s agenda is terrifying; a dangerous risk in the Wisconsin/Walker vein. Easy/safe vote for Quinn.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:12 pm:
Louis:
Republicans are undoubtedly better than four years ago.
But so are Republicans.
The Democratic Party’s coordination with the Governor is unprecedented. Madigan dislikes Rauner that much.
The number of absentee ballots in Chicago has doubled.
Chicago and suburban cook are going to blow through previous early voting totals.
And then, there is Chad Grimm.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:13 pm:
Mean, if OP/RF means Oak Park/River Forest, I’d be interested as to where one could find the GOP presence. Is it hiding?
I’ve pulled a GOP primary ballot in the last two cycles. Not a peep, just like the previous 20 years.
- anon - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
Early voting will be much higher in all areas due to heavy promotion and encouragement. In othwer news, water is wet.
- 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:20 pm:
Quinn, but it will be decided either way late in the night or early morning because it will be very close.
Quinn will get Chicago, South Cook, Western Cook split
Rauner gets most Northern Cook, half of Western Cook, DuPage and most of downstate.
- austinman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:41 pm:
quinn by a hair
- vole - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:44 pm:
Gut: Occupy has deeper root than it was given credit for. If we can fell the icons of plutocracy even while not having much of a weakening impact on plutocracy itself, we will do that.
Quinn.
- AC - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:45 pm:
Quinn gets reelected by such a small margin that we won’t know that he won until Wednesday morning.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:47 pm:
===Quinn gets reelected by such a small margin that we won’t know that he won until Wednesday morning. ===
If that’s the case, it could be January.
- Western Ave. Doug - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:52 pm:
Mr. Miller, what does your gut tell you about the results?
- Bogey Golfer - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:00 pm:
Will wake up Tuesday am with Rauner being declared winner. Will get 30% of the Cook County vote. @ 3rd Generation Chicago Native: I don’t think Quinn will do that well in South Cook.
- A guy... - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:03 pm:
My gut says turnout will determine whether Quinn wins by less than 1% or Rauner wins by 3-4%. It’s anyone’s race.
- Urban Girl - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:06 pm:
I will go out on a limb to say:
Quinn 49
Rauner 44
Grimm 7
+/- 1
Based on a mix of hope, Rauner’s under-performance v. the polls in the primary, and a desire to not play it safe with the guess.
- Loop Lady - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:22 pm:
I do think it will be too close to call and entail a recount…the only people that will be happy will be the election lawyers…it might be a long, nerve wracking holiday season folks…update your resume, stock up on your favorite libation, and get ready to wait…
- SirChatsalot - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:22 pm:
Urban blacks stay home - Rauner WINS a close race.
- Quiet Sage - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:28 pm:
Quinn by the narrowest of margins. As in a championship boxing match, Rauner needed an edge on points to win. He didn’t get it. Quinn has held him to at least a solid draw.
- Mouthy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:30 pm:
“Sure there is. There is everywhere. But it’s small potatoes and it’s not a budget fix.”
Small Potatoes? I’d say it runs in the hundreds of millions easily.
“Mouthy, Rich’s email can be accessed at the top of this blog. I’m sure he would be interested in your breathtaking list.”
I’ll be polite and not suggest what you can do..
- Ando - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:32 pm:
Quinn is up by 2-3 percentage points in the average of the polls taken over the past month. Most recent poll showed him up by 3 percent. I expect him to win by about 3 percent. Huffington Post has not updated its polling averages in a week. If they update their average, they would have Quinn ahead by 2 percent instead of Rauner ahead by 2 percent. RCP has Quinn up 1, but they lean a little right with their bias. RCP had Obama and Romney tied for the popular vote right before the election, and Obama won by 3.5%. RCP knew Obama would win, but their rightward leaning bias didn’t want to admit that to their viewers.
- JS Mill - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:42 pm:
Quinn. My gut won’t feel too good about it either but Rauner is not good for the average family.
- Quiet Sage - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:43 pm:
Continuing my boxing analogy, a haymaker could still bring Quinn down in the closing second of the match. That haymaker being a general Republican landslide of 1994 proportions.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:43 pm:
Mouthy, now we know the genesis of your pusdenym. All mouth, no action. Put up or shut up.
- Peoria Guy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:43 pm:
Jim Edgar to campaign for/with Rauner Monday all over the state.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:46 pm:
===Jim Edgar to campaign for/with Rauner Monday all over the state.===
“Dear Rauner Crew,
Good luck with that.
Signed,
Dillard, 2010 & Dillard, 2014″
- Peoria Guy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:57 pm:
It is a plus. Just because he has campaigned for others Pubs who have lost doesnt make it a bad thing. Every vote counts in a close election.
- Levois - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 2:06 pm:
I only know it will be a close election next Tuesday. It’s hard for me to say whether or not Quinn or Rauner wins. It’ll be like 2010 over again except we still won’t know. Neither candidate is ideal but hey that’s politics.
- Louis G Atsaves - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 2:24 pm:
Yellow Dog, I can’t disagree with you, other than to point out the enthusiasm factor on the GOP side. Compared to other years, this year is off the charts in that department.
- Robert the Bruce - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 2:26 pm:
Rain shows up.
Rahm’s army does not.
Rauner squeaks it out.
- Seriously - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 2:27 pm:
Going from no ground game to a credible ground game makes up the difference. Rauner wins.
- Wordslinger - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 2:45 pm:
Rahms army? Who are they? Are you under the impression Emanuel would back Quinn, if he had an “army?”
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 2:56 pm:
===Going from no ground game to a credible ground game makes up the difference. Rauner wins.===
That “credible” ground game blew a 17 point lead.
Just saying.
- seriously - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:15 pm:
-==Going from no ground game to a credible ground game makes up the difference. Rauner wins.===
That “credible” ground game blew a 17 point lead.
Just saying.-
Rauner did not have a ground game in the primary. Part of the reason it was built is because of what happened in the primary. Not to mention that in the primary a whole bunch of Dems crossed over. That model doesn’t work in a general.
- Under Further Review - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:15 pm:
Pure speculation on my part, but if the Democratic candidate was anyone other than Quinn, the generic Democratic gubernatorial candidate would be ten points up right now.
Rauner is going to be the beneficiary of those voters who see 2014 as a referendum on Quinn.
It is going to be close and probably be a plurality win rather than a majority.
- walker - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:17 pm:
Louis says suburban GOP GOTV better than previous cycles. I think Dem GOTV is better too. My gut wavers. Recount, delay, and legal suits seem likely.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:22 pm:
===Rauner did not have a ground game in the primary. Part of the reason it was built is because of what happened in the primary. Not to mention that in the primary a whole bunch of Dems crossed over. That model doesn’t work in a general.===
Hmm.
I remember - A Guy… - telling us all about the ground game.
They thought they had a ground game it failed. Miserably.
Also, “Hmm, part 2″
===Not to mention that in the primary a whole bunch of Dems crossed over. That model doesn’t work in a general.===
It’s worse in the General. Far worse. And the Dems crossing over, they saw weakness, they can build on March with all the other Dems who voted for Quinn in the Primary.
It’s like understanding how this works isn’t based on reality for those thinking Rauner has a ground game.
I am a Plus. I know I am. They are flawed.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:24 pm:
Will Lou’s collar county enthusiasm make up for the lack of Rauner enthusiasm downstate? I could easily see this being a reverse of 2010 w/ same outcome. Quinn wins, but Rauner overperforms in collars and underperforms downstate (vice versa of Brady)
- Peoria Guy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:33 pm:
Rauner does have a ground game. He has poured lots of resources into it. I have seen it locally in Peoria. Much, much better than the Pubs had 4 years ago.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:35 pm:
And kudos to the Quinn campaign for successfully making this election about Quinn versus Rauner, and not the referendum on Quinn everyone thought it would be. They have but Quinn in a position to win and have made this a turnout election - which is a very good position for a statewide Illinois Democrat.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:38 pm:
Rauner’s ground game - if his mailer strategy is any indication, he’ll probably bring 2 Quinn voters to the polls for every Rauner voter he turns out. I have no faith in his ground game’s ability to either turn out voters or, more importantly, turn out Rauner voters
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:40 pm:
Rauner’s probably bragging that he spoke to a curch on the South Side and he made sure they all showed up to vote
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:48 pm:
===Rauner’s ground game - if his mailer strategy is any indication, he’ll probably bring 2 Quinn voters to the polls for every Rauner voter he turns out===
Ding, ding, ding.
It’s about actual pluses, they think I’m one.
Speaks volumes
- 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:54 pm:
@Bogey Golfer you are most likely right, Markum, Blue Island, Harvey, etc will not be out in numbers to vote like Tinley & Orland
- Pelonski - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 3:57 pm:
Quinn by around 3%. Suburban women won’t be the key this time. As others have said, Rauner does better in Cook County but does much worse downstate due to his alienation of unions and social positions. I’m not sure traditionally Republican union members necessarily go for Quinn, but a good number will vote for Grimm or undervote which will make the difference.
- RNUG - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 4:05 pm:
Same as I’ve been saying the last month or two … really close, may be the next day before we know who won but expect Quinn to barely pull it out in the end.
- Union Leader - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 4:52 pm:
All the money used to buy the GOP townships will mostly stay in their coffers. All politics is local my friends and they want to keep their own people happy.
- walleyeb - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 5:02 pm:
Rauner, lower Chicago turn out, much higher downstate turnout will rule the day.
- Robert the Bruce - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 5:38 pm:
==Rahms army? Who are they? Are you under the impression Emanuel would back Quinn, if he had an “army?”==
Not a large army, certainly nothing compared to what could be mobilized 20 years ago, let alone 50 years ago. But I do believe Rahm has a strong volunteer/voluntold base who could work hard on election day if Rahm pushed.
My point, poorly made, was that Rahm won’t work hard for Gov. Quinn.
- Anonymous - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 5:39 pm:
Dem ground game is union members who know their livelihood depends on beating Rauner.
Rauner’s ground game is high school kids getting $9 an hour who just want to get their numbers and could care less who wins. True believer Republicans aren’t helping b/c of social issues and machine Republicans aren’t helping b/c he said there’ll be no job spigot.
I like Quinn’s chances
- Mighty M. Mouse - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 5:44 pm:
Quinn wins with over 50% of the gubernatorial vote.
- walleyeb - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 5:54 pm:
Union bosses may be backing Quinn but rank and file members hate him and what he’s done to them!
- RNUG - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 9:08 pm:
- Mouthy - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 1:30 pm:
In a $35 - 40B budget, a few hundred million is 1%, a rounding error.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 9:17 pm:
RNUG, the guy is all talk. I’d be surprised if he came up with a few thousand in savings. More like a 100 by suggesting cheaper TP.
- RNUG - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 9:22 pm:
Norseman, I agree … but somebody needs to debunk.
BTW, didn’t see you the other day but it was interesting. The lack of enthusiasm for Rauner by a lot of GOP wa son display.
- RNUG - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 9:27 pm:
I’m going answer a question that really didn’t get asked.
I’m going to guess the under vote for Gov will be in the range of 10% - 12%, a combination of disgusted teachers / state employees / retirees and just some people who are turned off by both candidates. And I’ll even go out on a limb and say Quinn will also win several downstate counties for a total of 5 - 7 counties.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:12 pm:
Yes. I can’t stay away from home too long. I take it that Sen. McCann gave everybody the lowdown on the Capitol scene.
- Carhart Representative - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:27 pm:
Walleyeb, against a normal Republican you’d be right. I think if it had been Dillard or Rutherford or maybe even Brady, a lot of union membership would have sat this one out regardless of leadership. Unfortunately, Rauner has a long track record of rhetoric that makes union members see him as an existential threat. I would not vote for Quinn if he wasn’t running against Rauner and a lot of my fellow union members feel the same way.
- RNUG - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 10:47 pm:
Norseman, he was probably a bit more candid than he should have been. Definitely not a traditional politician; the audience seemed to appreciate his opinions.