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With Donald Trump emerging as the Republican party’s likely presidential nominee, how will his candidacy affect the campaigns of Illinois Republicans?
Republican Strategist Chris Robling told Ward Room that he believes Trump could help certain statewide candidates.
“Downstate and in the collar counties, and even somewhat in the city, for a statewide candidate like [Senator] Mark Kirk or [Illinois Comptroller] Leslie Munger, I think Trump is good news,” Robling said.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 9, 16 @ 8:54 am
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I think that is a tortured point of view. The only “good news” I can imagine brought by Donald Trump is for political cartoonists and comedians.
Comment by Morningstar Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:01 am
Lipstick, meet pig.
Comment by Nick Danger Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:01 am
===”Downstate and in the collar counties, and even somewhat in the city, for a statewide candidate like [Senator] Mark Kirk or [Illinois Comptroller] Leslie Munger, I think Trump is good news,” Robling said.===
When I see pictures of Kirk and/or Munger with Donald Trump, released by their Crews, then I’ll “believe” that.
Mr. Robling,
Couple thoughts…
Trump and (ugh) Sarah Palin are now going after Speaker Ryan. If Munger, Kirk, and even Rauner skip Cleveland, how will the political stretching work with Kirk and Munger “embracing” Trump?
“Kirk and Munger aren’t going to Cleveland because they will be downstate working real hard for Donald Trump”
Goodness gracious this is awful, Mr. Robling.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:03 am
Nonsense.
Having a xenophobe and racist on the ticket is good news for no one — particularly the Illinois GOP.
It’s only “good news” if you agree with Trump’s views.
Comment by Formerly Known as Frenchie M Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:04 am
===for a statewide candidate like [Senator] Mark Kirk or [Illinois Comptroller] Leslie Munger, I think Trump is good news,===
I think that Trump is bad news for the GOP and will cost some of them their election bids. The ‘negatives’ that Trump has are very high and as I see it, many voters will not split their ballots on election day.
Comment by Hit or Miss Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:10 am
Trolling for a future payday. Although I doubt there will be much Trump money (or Clinton money, for that matter) coming into Illinois for the general election.
Trump is such a positive force, the governor won’t even say his name.
If Suburban Women are the ultimate swing vote in any statewide race, then I don’t think Trump helps any GOP statewide candidate, at all.
In fact, I don’t see any possible way Trump is a net positive for any statewide candidate.
Does he help Dold vs. Schneider? Dold doesn’t appear to think so.
Are there any other competitive Congressional races? I kind of doubt it. But I can see how Trump might help Bost.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:10 am
Since we’re debating opinions about the Trump effect on statewides in the GOP, ask the statewides about their perception of his impact. I’m guessing Munger isn’t dancing in the streets. At least the GOP will have the 1st Rauner installment ($5 million) to get started on their “I’m a GOP but I’m NOT Trump” message.
About that $5 million: It appears that the Governor is learning to wash his money through the party, versus giving directly to legislators as he did last year right before the heaving lifting of May began. And how do you reconcile “I’m not a politician” with “I’m the head of the Republican party”?
Comment by out of touch Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:11 am
Trump has repeatedly brought out voters to the polls. You think those Trump voters are going to pick democrats in the other races? If they show up in November, he could indeed be good news for many other Republicans.
Comment by m Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:12 am
Shouldn’t Robling get back to doing his PR job at College of DuPage or did he lose that gig once the tea-party darling quit as Board Chairman?
Comment by Big Muddy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:15 am
The question to ask is “How do people like Chris Robling continue to be on television and have their opinions be regarded as ‘expert?’” It would be difficult to imagine a statement that “Trump is good news in the suburbs” for Republicans that makes less sense. Right, Chris, and Trump will probably do best in Berwyn and Cicero. Sheesh.
Comment by Michael Westen Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:20 am
Well, 7 months is a long time in politics, but I’m not sure how Trump does not drag on state wide republicans with suburban female votes.
While Trump got a lot of people out who might not vote in primaries, I’m not sure we’ll see the same kind of mini surge in voting in the general election.
Comment by Ahoy! Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:20 am
Chris should lay off the Kool-Aid. Trump is a disaster for the R’s, particularly in Illinois.
Comment by Stones Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:20 am
They said the same thing about some entertainer who went on to drag 12 new Republican Senators into office in 1980. I am not a Trump (or Hilary) fan but all bets are off on the down ballot effect he may have. Certainly the worst set of cho ices I have ever seen.
Comment by Gordon Willis Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:21 am
===They said the same thing about some entertainer who went on to drag 12 new Republican Senators into office in 1980===
Please name me the multitude of governors, US Senators and Congresscritters who openly refused to endorse or vote for Reagan.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:25 am
Robling was on a news station last week crowing about how the presumptive Republican nominee was democratically selected, unlike the race between Former Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders.
Trump is good for the Republican party as I think many members do not support tax cuts for the wealthy or government monitoring of bathrooms and marriage. And thats blowing a hole in “reaganism”.
But the “republican” can reap what they have sown. Just go back to the concern over President Barrack Huessein Obama’s birth certificate which is nothing more than racism. And who was upfront and in the news about that? Why didnt the leader of the Republican Party at the time, Speaker of the House John Boehner step up the camera and put a stop to it?
So good luck Chris. Your right, he might help some of the folks downstate. But when those colleges start closing along with associated businesses. It might not. Then Chris you need to talk to Bruce about “job creation”.
Comment by Mike Cirrincione Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:31 am
I’m a Republican, and I don’t plan to vote Republican for any race contested or not this year - with the possible exception of Kirk. I am undecided on that one. The rest of the Republicans that claim to represent me have proven that they don’t. I refuse to vote for Donald Trump. Just because someone would be entertaining to have a beer with doesn’t mean they should be president, Donald doesn’t have the temperament or the character needed.
Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:31 am
Trump may attract NRA voters, but he loses Republican women and minorities to Hillary. I don’t see any net benifit for Kirk or Munger.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:32 am
the political class is so far out of touch, it is hilarious. love him or hate him, trump has turned out voters. isn’t it voters who decide elections? the political class is too rich and insulated for their own good. they have a rude awakening coming this November. goes for the Democrat political class too. the two party system is rotting from the inside out.
Comment by kimaye Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:34 am
Was Chris dropped on his head as a child?
Comment by And I Approved This Message Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:36 am
Sorry, “benefit”.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:37 am
I’m sure the guy that’ll lose Illinois 75-25 will sure help Mark Kirk… into retirement….
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:38 am
At the Federal level, seems like it will hurt Dold, and Davis and Bost might be in some trouble if you only look at 2012 POTUS results. But you could see a number of Hillary and then Dold/Davis/Bost ballots. Don’t see how it helps Kirk.
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:38 am
I won’t pretend to be able to predict anything statewide, but I am familiar with Southern Illinois, and I can tell you that there are a lot of people on both sides of the political spectrum in my neck of the woods who support walls and banning ethnic minorities.
Comment by Delimma Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:41 am
Wensicia, do you even know any gun owners ? They don’t trust Trump either, because he will lie about supporting 2A just like Obama did. Republicans, including women, won’t vote for Hillary, they will either skip the election or leave that part of the ballot blank.
Comment by DGD Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:43 am
“How do people like Chris Robling continue to be on television and have their opinions be regarded as ‘expert?’
Good question.
The most useful thing that Robling ever did for the GOP was when Michael Patrick Flanagan had him moving furniture at his district office back in 1995.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:44 am
Trump does not bring good tidings of great joy for Illinois Republicans [said with glee]. I can’t wait for this particular house of cards to tumble.
Comment by Dome Gnome Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:46 am
===trump has turned out voters===
Yep, and in Illinois he turned out so many voters that the winning Democratic candidate for Cook County State’s Attorney out-polled Trump’s statewide total.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, May 9, 16 @ 9:49 am
@DGD - I’m a gun owner. Does that mean I somehow believe everything the NRA says? Does that mean the 2A means that I can carry a tank in my back pocket? How about an F35? A mini-gun? Certainly seems like a reasonable discussion between people who have different opinions and viewpoints on this issue would be a good thing, instead of the pro-gun lobby taking a “no discussion” is better than “any discussion” attitude.
Comment by Delimma Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:07 am
When Robling comes on WGN, I turn the channel.
Comment by ChicagoR Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:15 am
I just don’t see Sen. Kirk calling a “favor” into Trump for him to come help campaign with him in October. Even among folks who are fairly loyal GOP voters, the man has a lot of negatives going against him.
Comment by The Muse Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:16 am
=is good news for no one — particularly the Illinois GOP.
It’s only “good news” if you agree with Trump’s views.=
No. It is actually great news for Hillary Clinton and anyone who supports her.
Comment by Robert the 1st Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:17 am
Chris is spinning…hard. I know what Chris really thinks of Trump and this ain’t it. However, we should take Chris at his word and tie every candidate hard to Trump starting with Mark Kirk - the guy who’s so scared of Trump he won’t even go to the convention. Let’s see how that works out.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:18 am
=Trump has repeatedly brought out voters to the polls. You think those Trump voters are going to pick democrats in the other races? If they show up in November, he could indeed be good news for many other Republicans.=
As I understand it, GOP turn out in the primaries was up. However, primary turn out is always lower than election day turnout. How many people who don’t normally turn out for election day showed up for the primaries? As is, in recent presidential elections about two-thirds of all registered whites go to the polls. That’s a lot.
The community that could have the biggest rise in voters in the Hispanic community. Only 48% of registered Hispanic voters went to the polls nationwide in 2012. Given Trump’s rhetoric, ya gotta figure many non-voters will be energerized to go the polls this year to vote against him. And Illinois sure has plenty of them.
Comment by Some Guys Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:18 am
No, Mr. Robling, I do not want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge.
Comment by Norseman Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:28 am
–They said the same thing about some entertainer who went on to drag 12 new Republican Senators into office in 1980.–
Are you referring to Gov. Reagan? That’s just twisted.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:28 am
Robling meant to say Trump is catching fire…a dumpster fire.
Comment by Jocko Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:36 am
I’m not sure Trump is bad news for the IL GOP, but I think Rauner will be bad news for Republicans who are trying to get re-elected. Trump is in position to become our next president because more people voted for him than anyone else.
PS - I’m NOT one of Trump’s fans.
Comment by Mama Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:37 am
The GOP has a skunk, they KNOW they have a skunk, and all the perfume in the world isn’t going to cover the stink, Mr. Robling.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:38 am
What will happen to IL if Trump becomes President elect Trump when our governor did not support him?
Comment by Mama Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:44 am
Here is the text of the 2nd Amendment:
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
Since the Supreme Court has literally determined that everyone in the US is a member of the militia, the question becomes…who regulates the militia and what are the regulations?
I’m a non gun-owner and dont think its appropriate to run around with an AK-47 on the “L”. In fact, I’m more uncomfortable with with someone not trained in the least on how to use a gun not to mention with some sort of liability insurance on the chance I get caught in the cross-fire.
Some food for thought.
Thank you for your blog, Rich. Always enjoy reading it.
Comment by Dan Jenkins Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:48 am
I’m not sure how Trump helps any incumbent. Bost/Davis/Kirk/Dold—- these are all career politicians. Especially Bost sitting over 20 years. People are voting for Trump most because he is not a career politician. For every racist white male vote Trump turns out- the GOP loses a suburban woman, brings out a minority to vote. As for helping Bost- he voted for Fast Track to China, has voted pro-China multiple times in 16 months, has been in office for 20 years, and has similar negatives as Trump. So none of positives but some of negatives. If the Dems fund into that race properly- Bost gets nailed for being a career politician- who has hurt higher education, voted to ship jobs to China, and who is falsely claiming on Wikipedia that he graduated U. Of Illinois when he has no college degree.
Comment by Tubular Monday, May 9, 16 @ 10:57 am
I have no problem with so-called establishment politicians. We do have a system of growing politicians in this country. And I think its helpful to have people who are interested in public service, know how to build a coalition, and understand that things move slowing in the United States.
People like Donald, who have some experience in business should try at a smaller, local level first before doing something like this. In fact, this would have been helpful for Mr. Rauner…instead of just injecting himself without understanding how the process works.
Oswego Willy talks about this all the time on this board.
Comment by Jim Kassenbach Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:18 am
Dan eventually concealed carry will be extended to public transportation including the CTA. Most CCL holders that I know carry liability insurance as I do, even though I rarely carry. I know there is a large open carry movement in some states but here in Illinois it is not significant, so you need not worry about people bringing AR15’s on the red line in the near future.
I personally would be hesitant to carry a weapon on a subway train during peak times, given how packed the trains are it seems very possible to hit an unintended passenger in a legitimate self defense situation. I much prefer taking the risk of not being armed in that situation myself, but others would see it differently. None the less I support the right of appropriately trained CCL holders to carry on the CTA if they so chose.
Comment by Rod Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:20 am
To Robling: ROTFLM…!
Trump is the best thing the Democrats could have asked for.
Comment by IRLJ Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:24 am
“Thoughts?”
Chris Robling should strategize in a well-ventilated room.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:34 am
Robling is right only if Trump carries Illinois. If Trump gets clobbered here, however, then how can he possibly help the statewide candidates??? If Trump were to win this state, then he will win the nation in a landslide, because no GOP presidential candidate has won Illinois since 1988.
Comment by anon Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:34 am
Trump being at the top of the ticket definitely helps in downstate races for Republicans.
Comment by downstater Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:38 am
===Trump being at the top of the ticket definitely helps in downstate races for Republicans.===
Really? Then I’m sure downstate republicans will running very closely with Trump, as Labor, College Towns, and Social Services fight to get on that Trump bandwagon. Yikes.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 9, 16 @ 11:56 am
Chris Robbling, one of the most “savy” political commentators in this state.
Comment by Boone's is Back Monday, May 9, 16 @ 12:31 pm
I’m not a Trump fan. But I’ve yet to personally hear a single Republican say they will vote for Hillary. I think people underestimate how much conservatives dislike her. But I’ve heard people from both parties say how disappointed they are in their presumptive nominee. Trump will bring out his people. But a lot of regular R’s and D’s might stay home. That might allow Trump to shift the voting pool to the right.
Comment by m Monday, May 9, 16 @ 1:10 pm
—
…But I’ve yet to personally hear a single Republican say they will vote for Hillary. I think people underestimate how much conservatives dislike her.
—
Okay, well, here’s a big one:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/i-think-he-could-come-apart-222949
Comment by Formerly Known as Frenchie M Monday, May 9, 16 @ 2:15 pm
@rod:
Thank you for your comment. I certainly support the right to bear arms, as long as its understood that as part of that right you are a member of A Well Regulated Militia. The Government is the only suitable body in our country to regulate the Militia.
Have a good day!
Comment by Dan Jenkins Monday, May 9, 16 @ 2:33 pm
@M:
Do you mean Conservatives like the North Carolina Governor who is now suing to enforce a Government Takeover of the Bathroom?
Or do you mean Conservatives like Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton who dont believe that Government should be regulating the bathroom?
Which is it?
Thank you,
Dan Jenkins
Comment by Dan Jenkins Monday, May 9, 16 @ 2:36 pm
I have talked to a number of Republican women that will vote for Hillary. They have an overwhelmingly negative view of Donald Trump. Trump will energize the minorities, women and liberals. I cannot see D’s staying home. This election is too important.
Comment by Max's Mom Monday, May 9, 16 @ 3:05 pm
@ Tubular - “who is falsely claiming on Wikipedia that he graduated U. Of Illinois when he has no college degree.”
And to think I spent 5 years getting my two degrees!
I probably know at least 20 individuals who went through the same training that Rep Bost did, but none claim that they have a degree from the UofI.
Comment by illini Monday, May 9, 16 @ 3:43 pm
Lovely as always to have a taste of CapFax’s anonymous readers and commentators. Shielded as they are, they remain courageous and charming as ever.
Here is the Trump point: If Goppers listen to Dems, which is what many have been doing, then we will apologize our way to a 45-state HRC win.
[The anti-Trump movement today is precisely the same as the anti-Reagan movement of 1979/80, when the Dems said he was a blithering dunce who would start World War III. Of course they were always wrong, but a shocking number of Goppers listened to them, wet their pants and did nothing to help Reagan prevail.]
Trump, on the other hand, has already shown himself both deft and effective.
I was not a Trump person, I hoped for Carly and eventually encouraged votes for Cruz. But those folks lost. Trump won, displaying considerable skill.
Now, in this anti-establishment year (see both Trump and Sanders), we have the anti-establishment candidate. The Dems are stuck with a habitual liar and incompetent who personifies all that is despised by the oppressed American taxpayers.
Can Trump’s offensive actions and words be toned down? I hope so.
Might he gain more of the Republican world view? I hope so.
Might he reach out both to defeated and disaffected Goppers, and independents and wayward Dems, I hope so.
What i know is that he will be the GOP Px candidate. And his skillful primary win is historic.
With him we must defeat a person far more offensive in every material respect, far less capable by any standard and entirely compromised by the money-grubbing of the Clinton Foundation to sell access to her actions as Secretary of State, on top of all of her dishonest dealings over the decades.
Yet with all of that, HRC will be very tough to beat. The wretched media wants her. And, the same wretched media despises all Goppers worthy of the name. Even Donald Trump.
So, it is time for us, starting with Mark and Leslie, to come to the aid of our party, and make the most of the hand our primary voters dealt. We have to meet, plan, visit, communicate, ID, GOTV, etc. All of the usual steps, but better than we ever have done so before.
And we had better do it as a team, because we know the Dems are.
Thanks, Rich, for starting this thread, and Cheers to all,
c
PS, to my “Never Trump” friends, i completely understand. Really do. But cannot go there with Hill, Bill and SCOTUS. At least with Trump we have a shot. Hillary’s uncritical dogmatic public employee union-sponsored lying statism will finish off our economy. I cannot take a step that could conceivably result in her election. Best, c
Comment by Chris Robling Tuesday, May 10, 16 @ 10:59 am