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* I have some questions about Morning Consult’s polling methodology, but their latest round found that Bruce Rauner is the 7th most unpopular governor in the nation…
Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.) and Gina Raimondo (D-R.I.), two governors facing difficult paths to re-election next year, are also among the most unpopular governors… Illinoisans also soured further on Rauner amid his latest budget wrangling with Democratic state lawmakers, and 49 percent of registered voters in the state disapprove of the businessman who ran as a disruptor of the status quo in 2014.
40 percent approved, 11 percent were undecided, according to the poll.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:39 am
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Pretty consistent with their last poll on Rauner (he may have lost a couple points of favorables). You average this with Willy’s favorite 58% number and you’re probably just about right.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:43 am
Yes, but now Ken Dunkin’s cavalry is here.
Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:46 am
It just goes to show you, no matter how poorly you do your job, there are others out there doing their’s worse. Thank God for Paul Lepage, eh governor.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:46 am
The only reason Rauner is even at 40 (if that’s accurate) is that he’s been spending money on ads and campaigning every single week since the election.
Pretty soon, having nothing to run on except Madigan is going to get….thin.
Comment by Blue Bayou Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:47 am
The poll was conducted from April 1 through July 10. That’s a long sample time - over three months. That means it isn’t really a snapshot of popularity, but an average of snapshots since April 1. Particularly that means one shouldn’t associate these results with any particular event, but instead read it as the general view of the public during the spring and early summer.
Comment by muon Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:48 am
==that Bruce Rauner is the 7th most unpopular governor in the nation…==
KR: “But with our new staff, and its open and radical candor, we’ll be #1 by Fall”
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:52 am
I think there is a strong correlation between unfunded pensions and popularity. RI, IL, NJ, and CT all have massive unfunded pension problems (in that order). This poll is immaculate in that Chris Christie is definitely the least popular governor in the country. He is polling
Comment by KAY-ro Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:54 am
- Arsenal -
I think you are really close to corralling this ameba.
Even if you’d like to say how “great” this is, “far better” than the Simon Poll, you have Rauner 40-49, under water, in a longer ticking poll, and 40% favorable for a Republican statewide officeholder, who was at 35% in the Simon Poll, the climb and the issues within the climb, (HB40? Social Services, Labor, Higher Ed) and that fact that Rauner now has a whole year without a signed budgetary success (again)… there’s little to think that this is “better”, let alone “far better” than the Simon Poll.
This might be a high water mark, depending how this new Crew handles the upcoming threats to polling popularity.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:55 am
“You can fool all of the people some of the time, and 40 percent of the people all of the time…”
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:56 am
==That means it isn’t really a snapshot of popularity, but an average of snapshots since April 1.==
An average of snapshots with small sample sizes, no less.
Yeah, it’s a weird poll, but I’d just throw it on the pile, with maybe a little more weight given to that Simon poll.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:58 am
I’ve never doubted that many people dig Rauner’s destructive ways or buy his virtually unchallenged message that it ain’t his fault.
I don’t see any way that IPI/Proft build on that base going forward to a general election.
Unlike some, I’ve always thought Rauner knew what he was doing and achieving much of what he wanted with squeeze the beast.
His actions in the last ten days strike me as obviously against his self-interest. IPI/Proft simply don’t bring anything to the party, either in skilled management or adding votes.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:01 am
I believe this poll is widely inaccurate and that his approval ratings are more into the low 30s. Polls are easily skewed to represent based on samples taken. This reminds me of all the polls showing Hilary Clinton way ahead of Trump.
Comment by OpenYourEyes Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:05 am
Three months is a really long time. Not to be cynical but I wonder if Rauner’s numbers improved after the tax increase veto and override.
Comment by Curl of the Burl Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:13 am
I can tell you that Rauner’s wildly unpopular at my house.
Comment by Dome Gnome Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:28 am
==I believe this poll is widely inaccurate and that his approval ratings are more into the low 30s.==
Look, when we’re arguing that a 40% approval rating seems too high, what are we really arguing about?
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:36 am
I amm a life long Republican that this guy turned into an independent.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:38 am
The other 51% were too busy packing for out of state move to have an opinion.
Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 10:43 am
How popular do you think the Democrats are right now, owning a 32% tax increase, with no reforms?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 11:01 am
I am truly amazed that some people still think Rauner will solve IL’s financial problems & create more good paying jobs.
Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 11:56 am
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 11:01 am: =
The new 4.95% Income Tax is still less than what you were paying 4- years ago. Plus this new income tax is less than what our surrounding states tax on income.
Comment by Mama Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 12:01 pm
Broken record here, I know. But these types of polls are basically poorly constructed garbage. I would make the same comment if Rauner’s disapproval was at 22% or at 80%. Rich is wise to be leery of the polling methodology. People who need shiny objects often get seduced by such polls and the narratives they seem to support or seem to dispute. Some polling lessons were there for the learning in Nov. 2016. Many have still not learned, though.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 1:57 pm
Interesting that Gov. Raimondo out east is also a private equity general partner (Point Judith Capital-small potatoes next to GTCR) who has faced numerous ethical questions surrounding her firm and investments it received from other public bodies.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Jul 18, 17 @ 9:43 pm