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* From the Pritzker campaign…
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: February 1, 2018
RE: JB Pritzker maintains strong lead over opponentsKey findings from Global Strategy Group’s survey conducted this week among of 801 likely Democratic primary voters in Illinois are as follows:
* JB Pritzker maintains his large lead in the Democratic Primary – nearly twenty points ahead of his nearest competitor. JB currently leads with 41% of the vote, ahead of Daniel Biss at 22%, Chris Kennedy at 16%, and 20% of voters undecided.
* Despite weeks of attacks from Governor Bruce Rauner and Daniel Biss, JB Pritzker is very popular and well regarded among Democratic primary voters. JB’s favorability rating is very strong with 65% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, while just 18% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
* In a hypothetical two-way match-up, JB Pritzker maintains his strong lead over Daniel Biss, taking in over 50% of the vote. In a simulated head-to-head match-up against Daniel Biss, JB leads with 52% of the vote to Daniel Biss at 32%.
ABOUT THIS POLL: Global Strategy Group conducted a live telephone survey of 801 likely Democratic primary voters from January 29-31, 2018. The results of this survey have a margin of error of +/-3.5%. Care has been taken to ensure that the survey is weighted to reflect the expected makeup of the 2018 Democratic primary electorate.
Pritzker is doing better in his poll than the We Ask America poll released yesterday and there are far fewer undecideds in this one.
The Pritzker campaign has adamantly refused to publicly release or even comment on their polling data since Day One. So, this is an interesting development.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 6:22 am
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Yesterday a comment was made thinking Kennedy may pick up more than his share of the undecideds. I kinda agree
Comment by Blue dog dem Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:01 am
===I kinda agree ===
If he got 100 percent of the undecideds in this particular poll, he’d still only be in second place.
Just sayin…
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:04 am
True. I wonder what political bombshell will be released by team Rauner prior to the primary with the intent to sway the Dem side. I cant believe they dont have some savory gossip ready to be unleashed. I guess we will see.
Comment by Blue dog dem Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:11 am
As the polling organization notes, this poll is specifically designed to tap into likely Democrat primary voters. Was that also the case with the poll reported yesterday? If not, that would explain some of the differences — which are interesting.
Comment by Flapdoodle Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:23 am
I believe Pritzker is doing very good right now. Everybody is forgetting that Pritzker has been the main targets of Rauner, Biss, Kennedy and others. Nobody has been making negative ad’s against Biss so you really can’t compare him to Pritzker. Until you see as much attack on Biss as Prizker then compare the two.
Comment by Real Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:24 am
The fact that they had a Jan 29-31 poll ready to release today tells me that they are polling every single day - which I think we already knew.
Comment by Fax Machine Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:27 am
Curious that they only listed 3 choices in the poll. I also wonder what a Kennedy-Pritzker head-to-head (not that it could ever come down to that) looks like.
Comment by Evanstonian Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:29 am
JB’s top obstacle has always been a natural reluctance among Dem primary voters to support a billionaire businessman with no government experience during the Trump/Rauner era. Despite unprecedented spending and running a pretty solid campaign, the polling data suggests JB is still struggling to clear that bar.
Comment by Roman Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:35 am
This seems like an odd rebuttal. Sure, Pritzker is farther ahead in this snapshot of the horserace, but it’s hard to imagine that Biss isn’t the one with most of the upward momentum when you look back on even just the past month. He’s nearly quadrupled his support since October while Pritzker has moved maybe three points. It’s not going to get any easier for JB from here, and the fact that he’s not broken out from ~40% even after months of nothing but constant positive ads… I’d be worried.
Comment by Leon Despres Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:41 am
This race has always been Pritzher’s to lose. I don’t see that changing.
Comment by Retired Educator Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:44 am
In regards to being liked by Democratic voters, Pritzker is running a lot of ads. I like the positive stuff about healthcare expansion, school meals and progressive income tax. From what I see in social media, he’s building a ground game. It looks for the most part like he’s doing a great job.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:47 am
Kennedy quits and endorses Biss. Just a thought.
Comment by jimk849 Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:47 am
I think Pritzker is doing very good right now. Everybody is forgetting that Pritzker has been the main targets of Rauner, Biss, Kennedy and others. Nobody has been making negative ad’s against Biss so you really can’t compare him to Pritzker. Until you see as much attack on Biss as Prizker then compare the two….
Comment by Real Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:53 am
@7:47 “Kennedy quits and endorses Biss. Just a thought. “……Probably more likely to quit and endorse Rauner….Just a thought?
Comment by Are Ya Kiddin' Me? Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 7:53 am
The big difference is the number of “undecided”. That is a big function of how the question is asked. Depending on that, people may be encouraged to state a preference even if that preference is soft, or on the other hand encouraged to say undecided if they are not sure. Since they have all the money in the world for polling, they must be identifying whether the preferences for them and for Biss are hard or soft. Just in the interests of full disclosure I am a Biss supporter, so discount the following for that if you wish but: My impression is that the Biss support is firmer than the Pritzker support. A lot of the Pritzker support seems to be based on the strength of his money and Democratic establishment connections rather than on his superior merits relative to Biss as a candidate and a Governor, whereas the Biss people really do believe that Biss is intrinsically better. The stronger Biss looks, the softer Pritzker’s support will get. Is Pritzker’s support soft enough, and Daniel’s resources sufficient, to close the gap by the primary? Daniel Biss is not Barack Obama, but I am reminded a bit of Obama blowing the Party-anointed Dan Hines out of the water in a US Senate primary a few years ago.
Comment by jake Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:00 am
Jake,
Two points. I understand your take about Biss having more strong support. And there’s no question that some of Biss’ support falls into this category, partially because of their antipathy to the rich guy. But all of this is before one negative second has been spent on Biss. Now that Pritzker has decided not to simply be a punching bag for Biss (who has been negative on JB for almost a year and who was the first candidate to launch negative TV in the D primary), let’s see how Biss fares. Those of us who know him knows this incarnation he’s running as is not consistent with the real Biss record so let’s see how folks fees once that’s exposed.
Second point is that JB is simply more likable so your theory about firmer Biss voters may or may not be true. We’ve got six weeks and now it’s game on.
Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:23 am
Its time for Pritzker to go on the attack against Rauner. The voters want to see Rauner gone.
Comment by Generic Drone Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:27 am
I can’t see Kennedy being a factor in the outcome beyond siphoning votes from Biss. His campaign has been disorganized from the get go and he’s had too many deer in the headlights moments. It’s a pattern that continue to repeat itself. I do think that Biss has a message that would resonate but he’s only got a shot if the field is cleared and that largely means Kennedy stepping aside. I don’t doubt that Kennedy could get around 25% of the vote simply on his name. But there’s clearly a ceiling to his campaign and I think he’s just about hit it.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:38 am
Pritzker hasn’t put it away, but the spread in both polls is still pretty solid, considering the pounding he’s been taking on the TV box with the Rauner Blago spots.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:45 am
Generic Drone,
Pritzker has been attacking Rauner on TV for months. What do you mean?
Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:49 am
Inevitability isn’t a strong campaign argument, but it seems like Pritzker’s team is trying to discourage or dampen people kicking the tires on Biss. Pritzker doesn’t have this locked by any measure.
Comment by Veil of Ignorance Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:52 am
One way to look at this race is through the prism of the Clinton-Sanders primary. Sanders got nearly 49% of the vote. Biss is clearly positioning himself as the “Bernie” candidate. If Kennedy and J.B. end up squabbling over the Clinton vote, and the ‘16 voter alignment replays itself, Biss has a shot.
Comment by DarkHorse Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 8:57 am
===a robo-poll which omits cell phones===
Totally false.
Half the respondents were mobile phone users contacted by live callers.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:01 am
===I’ve talked with people===
That isn’t data.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:02 am
===Was that also the case with the poll reported yesterday?===
Of course it was. For crying out loud, some of you people are really showing the stupid today.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:03 am
Generic Drone, who are you? Rip Van Winkle?
Pritzker has been attacking Rauner nonstop for months. Rub your eyes, have some oatmeal, and join the rest of us in the current year.
Comment by Jack Kemp Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:13 am
“and the ‘16 voter alignment replays itself, Biss has a shot.”
Bernie can still win guys
Comment by Reaganing Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:26 am
==One way to look at this race is through the prism of the Clinton-Sanders primary. Sanders got nearly 49% of the vote. Biss is clearly positioning himself as the “Bernie” candidate. If Kennedy and J.B. end up squabbling over the Clinton vote, and the ‘16 voter alignment replays itself, Biss has a shot.==
I have a sneaking suspicion that Bernie voters, many of whom were downstate, cast an anti-Hillary vote as opposed to endorsing Bernie’s plank outright. To be fair, there were many voters who affirmatively bought into his message, but I have trouble believing that Effingham County Democratic voters are ideologically more extreme than those in Cook County (I’m a progressive who voted for Hillary in the primary, full disclosure).
I also think you’re mixing your candidates; it seems as if both Kennedy and Biss are scrambling for the distinctly “anti-establishment”/Bernie progressive vote. Chris’ attacks on Rahm amounted to blatant pandering to both the African-American community and those on the left who despise Rahm, many of whom are Berniebros.
Pritzker is definitely the Clinton candidate for sure.
Comment by TKMH Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:27 am
If Pritzker’s poll data showed him with a bigger hypothetical lead vs Rauner than Biss over Rauner, he would have released that data. Telling that he did not.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:46 am
Pritzker has been deflecting Rauners attacks. I want him to be more direct. I live downstate and unless I have missed them, his ads are not direct enough to suit me. Maybe in Chicago area there are ads not playing here, but I have only seen the ones talking about Rauner interjecting himself i
n democratic primary.
Comment by Generic Drone Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 9:47 am
Is 20% undecided at this point, given the amount of TV ads out, a significant number?
The other question is how solid is Kennedy’s number? My sense is JB’s are firm as are Biss’.
Comment by fed up Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 10:00 am
==Care has been taken to ensure that the survey is weighted to reflect the expected makeup of the 2018 Democratic primary electorate.==
It seems like the difference may be driven by different weighting in the two polls.
In the We Ask America poll, you are a likely voter if you have voted in 2 of 3 Dem primaries - the most likely scenario there is that you voted in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential primaries, and those voters may not actually be likely to vote in a non-Presidential primary. If you look at the WAA crosstabs, a full 40% of the 2/3 voters are undecided and Pritzker significantly underperforms with them. If you look at the 3/3 voters in the WAA poll, the results are much closer to Pritzker’s poll.
So low turnout = Pritzker’s advantage, high turnout = anybody’s ballgame.
Comment by Century Club Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 10:28 am
==the fact that he’s not broken out from ~40%==
That’s a weird expectation in a 3-candidate field.
==If Pritzker’s poll data showed him with a bigger hypothetical lead vs Rauner than Biss over Rauner, he would have released that data.==
Well, given that this is the first internal data they’ve ever released, maybe not. Plus, they may not even be testing Rauner v. Biss, ’cause that doesn’t really matter to JB.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 10:31 am
I wouldn’t take this for more than its’ worth. The WAA poll seems more likely
Comment by Thomas Stepp Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 11:05 am
This poll shows the strength of Daniel Biss in Illinois. A significant percentage of voters want more government and higher taxes. Just look how well Biss is doing with barely any money. He’s the guy to watch…..
Comment by Steve Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 12:00 pm
===Pritzker is definitely the Clinton candidate for sure.===
For the 3,267th time.
Pritzker is not, NOT, the Clinton candidate.
Clinton was a long term, political operative that based on, with both parties, the “my turn” running and allowing a party to embrace them and them embracing back.
Pritzker has none of that.
It’s about bringing together those who feel the monies and the leverage the monies bring, with Labor, and with the caucuses.
Geez, Louise…
To the Post,
It’s about time.
Follow the “Skyhook” playbook…
Show the lead, pound on the lead, take on your opppments in the Primary, and use 1/3 of the time and resources to go after the weak incumbent governor.
I’ve been hammering and shaking this… and stop going so cheap with mixed message, 2-message :30 second Ads.
Do the job.
To Biss… Biss will now feel some blowback.
It’s up to Biss to get in front of the Labor issue, and make clear that Rauner is the enemy to organized labor, the Dem nominee will stand proud against Rauner with them.
We’ll see
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 12:15 pm
I remember the polls that showed Stevenson getting swamped by Thompson. Stevenson did lose— by about a vote a precinct.
All this talk from pundits and pollsters makes me want to check this all out with President Hillary.
If you have a candidate in this race forget the early polls, particularly polls paid for and released by candidates, and start working. The election can be won or lost by any of the candidates.
Comment by Back to the Future Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 12:30 pm
-I wouldn’t take this for more than its’ worth. The WAA poll seems more likely-
If both have just over 800 responses with a 3.5% margin of error. What makes the WAA poll more reputable than the Global Strategies Thomas Stepp? Is it your preference?
Comment by Illinois Fave Son Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 12:34 pm
Oswego Willy,
Perhaps I should clarify; he’s the Clinton candidate ideologically. You cannot deny that just as Clinton introduced more moderate iterations of Bernie’s platform (debt-free college as opposed to tuition free college), Pritzker is doing the same with respect to Biss (Medicaid public option vs. single payer).
Comment by TKMH Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 1:20 pm
==You cannot deny==
I kinda can. Sure, “Public option” is more moderate than “single payer”, but let’s be clear, Biss hasn’t really released a single payer plan, he’s just whined that JB’s plan isn’t one.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 3:23 pm
I remember the polls that showed Stevenson getting swamped by Thompson. Stevenson did lose— by about a vote a precinct.
All this talk from pundits and pollsters makes me want to check this all out with President Hillary.
If you have a candidate in this race forget the early polls, particularly polls paid for and released by candidates, and start working. The election can be won or lost by any of the candidates
-the polls were accurate as to the winner of the popular vote. There is no electoral college deciding this race.
Comment by Real Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 3:53 pm
===I remember the polls that showed Stevenson getting swamped by Thompson. Stevenson did lose— by about a vote a precinct.===
More like a quarter vote per precinct.
1982 was a Democratic wave year (not like, say, 2006, but fairly strong). Lots of pollsters didn’t pick up on that.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Feb 1, 18 @ 5:44 pm