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Does Illinois really have the highest black unemployment rate?

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Illinois

* January 9, 2018 Tribune editorial…

So we aren’t shocked that the unemployment rate for African-Americans in Illinois is 10 percent. That’s the highest of any state, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

* May 17, 2018 report by the Economic Policy Institute…

The highest African American unemployment rate [for the first quarter of 2018] is in the District of Columbia (12.9 percent), followed by Illinois (9.1 percent) and New Jersey (9.0 percent).

* June 14, 2018 WUIS story…

Illinois’ African-American unemployment rate is higher than that of any other state in the nation.

* June 21, 2018 Juliana Stratton op-ed…

As we marked Juneteenth, Gov. Bruce Rauner boldly stated he has “done more for black business, for black economic opportunity and black education opportunity than anybody.”

According to whom?

Because I will tell you, it certainly wasn’t according to black workers, dealing with the highest black unemployment rate of any state in the country under his failed leadership.

Google any variation of the phrase “Illinois has the highest African-American unemployment rate” and you’ll get a ton of results.

* Now, let’s look at state average black unemployment rates for all of 2017 according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics…

*Alaska 12.9%
District of Columbia 12.9%
*Kansas 11.7%
Michigan 9.5%
Ohio 9.1%
*Wisconsin 9.1%
*Arizona 9.0%
Illinois 8.9%
Louisiana 8.9%

Black unemployment rates in the “starred” states aren’t tracked by the Economic Policy Institute. The EPI tracks 23 states plus DC for this topic, while the BLS tracks 37 states plus DC.

And keep in mind that the EPI numbers are quarterly, while the federal BLS numbers are annual averages. Since these rates often tend to be revised, an annual average might be the better way of looking at things.

* But there’s no getting away from the fact that Illinois isn’t great for black employment. Here are the EPI numbers for the first quarter of the year for the states which had higher or the same unemployment rates as Illinois in the 2017 BLS report…

Louisiana 6.4%
Ohio 7.0%
Michigan 8.3%
Illinois 9.1%

Yep. We suck.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 3:22 pm

Comments

To start none of these unemployment rates are exactly accurate. I believe the rates are higher than what’s being reported.

Comment by Real Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 3:29 pm
According to BLS, Illinois was 4th highest state in 2015.
From your “all of 2017″ Illinois was 7th highest state.

Still not good, but undercuts “the highest black unemployment rate of any state in the country under his failed leadership.”

Comment by m Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 4:35 pm
I’d be curious how much of that is Cook, if that could be broken out, & how much of Cook is just the Wide Side & then say Englewood etc. on the South Side.

Comment by The Historian Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 4:39 pm
The comparative stats are helpful in reminding us that data have to be contextualized and qualified to be meaningful.

But even when considered leniently, Illinois’s stats look bad.

JB should use them in the first debate when BVR tells the audience he’s done more for blacks than any other governor in history.

I would enjoy Rauner responding to stats.

Comment by dbk Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 4:55 pm
I’m not sure you made it clear Rich–not out of anything other than trying to write it succinctly, but the numbers EPI uses are from two different BLS stats so the underlying BLS numbers are the source of both analyses.

The data on unemployment by race is from the Community Population Survey and it is likely to have greater variability over shorter periods–which you pointed out that the yearly data might be better and you are correct. I wouldn’t read too much into the quarterly numbers. The methodology cycles respondents so over a year it is more likely to be accurate than per quarter.

All that said, yes, African-American unemployment is way too high and we need to do something about it. Worse, is if you look at the percentage of the black population in the workforce, Illinois is down with Alabama and Mississippi. That’s deeply troubling, but not as easy of a story.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 5:45 pm
Self loathing is helpful…how?

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 6:00 pm