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Unclear on the concept

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Illinois

* Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady talked about legislative redistricting on WJPF today…

If you look at the last two gubernatorial elections, Bruce Rauner and Bill Brady, it is in a map drawn by the Democrats. In both cases, Bruce Rauner and Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn in the majority of the House and Senate seats. As smartly gerrymandered by them - and believe me, they are really good at this - as smartly as they could do it, they still couldn’t draw a map that the gubernatorial candidates didn’t win a majority. So, under a fair map, that is representative of the communities of this state, there’s no question in my mind, we would be, legislatively a Republican state.

Brady lost the popular vote to Quinn by 31,834 votes, and yet he won the majority of legislative districts. I’m not sure that’s such a great argument about how horribly gerrymandered the districts are. Just the opposite.

You’d think he would’ve lost a lot of districts because Dems advantaged themselves as much as possible to concentrate Republican legislative support in a handful of districts while diluting the rest over multiple Democratic districts (”packing and cracking”).

Then again, maybe it means nothing at all. We do have lots of ticket-splitters in this state and Quinn was a weak governor.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 2:47 pm

Comments

Brady is off the reservation here. Under a fair map the Democrats probably have a majority but it’s a lot more balanced. Remember the 2014 study by the Paul Simon Institute? Page 20 has a great breakdown of how the current gerrymandered map impacted the amount of the majority the Democrats have.

https://paulsimoninstitute.siu.edu/_common/documents/simon-review/Canary-Redfield%20Redistricting%20Paper%20Final%20Text.pdf

Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 2:58 pm
Governors are elected statewide. Gerrymandering doesn’t change that.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 3:05 pm
Brady could start by fixing Republican ineptitude. In 2016 and again now in 2018 the Senate Republicans didn’t run enough candidates to win a majority. If every Republican Senate candidate got 100% of the vote the Democrats would still have a majority. I know it isn’t easy but man, get in the game.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 3:07 pm
===31,834 votes===

It was a loss… 4 votes per precinct woulda changed the outcome.

Rauner learned, had a statewide apparatus.

The map or gerrymandering had nothing to do with Leader Brady… and ticket splitting is a sport in Illinois, not an anomaly

With respect to Leader Brady.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 3:07 pm
Brady was inept, period. He spent no time and no money in Chicago and he loves to use Chicago as “they” and as the problem with Illinois. He is too provincial to govern.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 3:09 pm
All I can see are Blue Skies.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 3:33 pm
“they still couldn’t draw a map that the gubernatorial candidates didn’t win a majority”

My man, the gubernatorial map is… just Illinois.

Comment by lakeside Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 3:56 pm
“Unclear on the Concept” — that was the slogan for Brady’s gubernatorial campaigns, wasn’t it?

–In both cases, Bruce Rauner and Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn in the majority of the House and Senate seats…–

“And if you go by counties, I clobbered Pat Quinn, 98 to 4… so, I should get something for that… “

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 4:13 pm
Rauner won a lot of Dem-held legislative districts….and Hillary won a lot of GOP-held legislative districts. That’s an argument for Illinois not being as Gerrymandered as you think.

Comment by Roman Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 4:30 pm
Congrats Bill on figuring out you are less popular than generic legislative republicans.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 4:32 pm
===Congrats Bill on figuring out you are less popular than generic legislative republicans.===

Scratch that. More popular than generic legislative republicans. Still couldn’t get you there.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 4:44 pm
It’s been almost a decade Bill.
You just thinking about what happened in 2010 now?
You lost to Blagojevich’s incompetent Lt. Governor, who had lesd charisma than Mark Bartman.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 26, 18 @ 5:01 pm