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* Lynn Sweet has drastically revised her scooplet yesterday that Republican Congressman Mark was “poised” to jump into the US Senate race…
Note: In an earlier version I wrote Kirk was “poised” to jump in the contest. I revised to “mulling” later.
That’s quite a big difference. He’s been “mulling” the race for months.
The people I talked to yesterday are also backtracking today, so I’m not sure what the heck is going on.
* On its blog, Public Policy Polling takes a closer look at its Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias and Kirk vs. Jan Schakowsky results we had here yesterday and comes up with this tidbit about independent voter preference…
…55% of independents said they approved of Barack Obama’s job performance. But when it came to the 2010 Senate race Mark Kirk led Alexi Giannoulias 36-25 among independents and had a 39-22 edge over Jan Schakowsky. In other words less than half of those independents who said they liked the job the President is doing are committed to voting for someone from his party to assume his old Senate seat next year.
PPP does admit, however, that “independents” are getting more conservative as a whole because so many people are leaving the Republican Party these days.
What they didn’t mention because it might not have fit their theme is that independents favored Lisa Madigan over Kirk 44-32. Independents also picked Pat Quinn over Bill Brady 34-27 and went with LMadigan over Brady 43-25.
* Also, as I’ve told you many times before, African-American voters always break late, and it’s no different in that PPP poll. African-American undecided numbers for the hypothetical US Senate matchup with Congressman Kirk show a Democratic underperformance which won’t be there come election day…
* Schakowsky - 34%
* Giannoulias - 37%
* Madigan - 25%
* Meanwhile, Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky’s people are attempting a bit of damage control. As I told you yesterday, that Public Policy Polling survey had Kirk leading Schakowsky 37-30.
Late yesterday, Schakowsky’s campaign blasted out this e-mail…
Momentum continues to build for Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-IL, to enter the 2010 Illinois Senate race. A statewide survey of 600 likely voters showed Rep. Schakowsky holding a 6-point lead over Rep. Mark Kirk in a potential 2010 Senate race. As voters learn more about the two candidates, Schakowsky’s lead over Kirk expands.
Not quite.
First, the poll was taken December 20-22 of last year. The poll is over four months old. So much for “momentum.”
Second, if you take a closer look you’ll see that her own poll shows her initially leading Kirk 23-20. Only when “leaners” are factored in did her December lead expand to 36-30.
* And Greg Hinz talked to Democratic US Senate possible Chris Kennedy about his latest poll…
The North Shore resident also confirmed that he’s interested enough in the race for the seat now held by Roland Burris that he’s commissioned a poll, and that the results are pretty good.
Mr. Kennedy wouldn’t give any numbers but, as he put it, “Let’s just say there was nothing in there that would discourage me.” Another source familiar with the poll agreed that the results are favorable.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 1, 09 @ 1:38 pm
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Schakowsky sounds pretty far left in this video: http://www.breitbart.tv/html/330913.html
Think she’ll see these words replayed over-and-over if she’s in the Senate race?
Pushing universal health care coverage as a humane issue is one thing, cheerleading the downfall of a major industry in favor of a government industry is another.
Comment by Ringside Friday, May 1, 09 @ 1:43 pm
Rich, I think that’s what’s going on is simply that Kirk is keeping his decision very close until he is ready, and a lot of people who claim to be in the know really aren’t. Perhaps Sweet was trying to smoke something out, but sometimes getting out too far in front of a story can burn you.
As Kirk’s ‘hometown’ blog, I don’t claim that I’m going to have the scoop any sooner than anyone else, but I do know that no one else has it, for now.
Comment by Team America Friday, May 1, 09 @ 1:50 pm
Chris Kennedy, North Shore resident…maybe he runs for the 10th?
Comment by The Doc Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:13 pm
Rep. Jan Schakowsky is a little out of touch w/ the “entire” state of Illinois. She’s drifted so far left that she belongs in San Francisco.
Comment by scoot Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:16 pm
I expect Kirk to run for re-election in the 10th Congressional District. That will scare away Seals and Garrett, and gives Bond an easy primary victory. After that, it gets ugly.
Comment by Ela Observer Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:28 pm
Hey Doc, don’t you know that congress is too small and insignificant for a Kennedy? Thats for the little people. Or for 27 year old Kennedys to run for. But once you are over 40 it is Senate or Ambassador. That is if you’re a Kennedy. And if that doesn’t work out Uncle Teddy calls up a publisher to put out your book so then you can be known as an author. So lets recap… Senator, Ambassador and if all else fails author.
Comment by Cosmic Charlie Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:29 pm
CC, tone it down.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:41 pm
Kennedy passed on running for the 10th in 1999 when John Porter hung em up. The Kennedy name isn’t close to what it once was. JFK’s daughter couldn’t get appointed in New York and I proudly worked for Michael Steele when he knocked out Bobby’s oldest daughter in the 2002 Maryland Gubernatorial race where she was the only democrat nominated not to win since 1966.
I’m not a subscriber so maybe I’m missing Rich’s thoughts on redistricting as the driving force.
Also expect Lynn Sweet to be very anti-Mark Kirk, she and a former Sun-Times political columnist hammered him repeatedly when he first ran in 2000 claiming he couldn’t win the primary and then had no shot in the general.
Comment by Shore Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:45 pm
If Rep. Kirk doesn’t run for re-election, St. Rep. Coulson will probably run for his seat. An article, in Roll Call, states that she’s considering it.
Comment by ConservativeVeteran Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:52 pm
“Let’s just say there was nothing in there that would discourage me.”
Wow. If you could needle-point and frame this statement, you could sell thousands every election year to every candidate.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:53 pm
I’m hoping Kennedy doesn’t run simply because I dread the crazies it’ll bring to this blog. Nothing gets the tinfoil hat types riled up more than the “K” word.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:56 pm
i bet the state party is begging Kirk to run for Governor instead and thats what the hold up is. Science is making wonderfull advances in cloning, maybe Andy McKenna can have Kirk cloned and he can run for both Governor and Senate. I think Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was in a movie about human cloning, maybe he can provide some insight to our state party on how to proceed.
Comment by Science to the Rescue Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:57 pm
Chris Kennedy has been an Illinois resident for years, running the Merchandise Mart. We don’t know what kind of a campaigner he’d be, but just knowing that he’s apparently seriously thinking about running for the Senate seat has to be chilling to Kirk, Schakowsky, Madigan and Burris.
Comment by been there Friday, May 1, 09 @ 2:59 pm
Kirk is a major threat. A moderate who can appeal to almost all the hard right. The only way Jan can be Senator is if the GOP puts up a hard-right candidate for Senator. He’d probably get about 40-45% of the jewish vote, for god’s sake.
Comment by james Friday, May 1, 09 @ 3:07 pm
Why do I keep forgetting Giannoulias? Chilling to him too.
Comment by been there Friday, May 1, 09 @ 3:13 pm
If you’ve spent anytime with Kirk you know his main interest is foreign affairs and d.c. He’s said repeatedly he has no interest in springfield.
The kennedy name is overrated, you see more DUI’s, and stories on what they once were not what they are and what they will be. They’ve lost A LOT more than they’ve won lately and the fact that a lt.governor from Harlem would trash JFK’s daughter like that publicly in New York says a lot about how they are perceived within their own party much less the public.
Comment by Shore Friday, May 1, 09 @ 3:30 pm
=== Nothing gets the tinfoil hat types riled up more than the “K” word. ====
Kombine?
Comment by Ghost Friday, May 1, 09 @ 3:49 pm
k word “kirk”
Comment by party of one Friday, May 1, 09 @ 3:56 pm
Kennedys may attract kooks, but you surely don’t need to be a kook to think that one family holds enough offices, to enough of a mediocre and often scandalous record of late, that it’d be just fine if none of them ever got elected to anything again. (No offense to Chris Kennedy personally, who seems the most admirable of his generation of Kennedys, not that that’s saying a great deal…)
And Schakowsky’s “despicable” comments come awfully close to being the perfect Kinsley gaffe for an Illinois pol– how dare the people do anything other than vote and pay their taxes? What makes them think they dare speak against their permanent political class? Who sent them?
Comment by 32nd Ward Roscoe Village Friday, May 1, 09 @ 4:01 pm
I don’t think Jan can win statewide but I don’t think a video of her demonizing the insurance companies is going to hurt her. I mean, truly, who doesn’t hate the insurance companies?
Comment by paddyrollingstone Friday, May 1, 09 @ 4:04 pm
lol, party of one
Comment by Ela Observer Friday, May 1, 09 @ 4:12 pm
I thought Specter leaving the GOP would reduce the likelihood of Kirk running for U.S. Senate.
1. Specter leaving the GOP means that Kirk will have a harder time raising money from pro-business, pro-abortion rights Republicans.
2. If Kirk got to the Senate he’d be miserable. He’d spend six years being on the bubble for filibuster votes. If he votes against the GOP filibusters, he’s a pariah in his party. Republicans aren’t good at that “big tent” game. If he votes with the GOP, he’s filibustering the legislation of the most popular politician in the state (Obama).
Kirk is in a lose-lose, unless he can convince 30+ Republican Senators with more seniority to reduce reliance on the filibuster.
Specter relished being in those situations. I don’t see evidence that Kirk wants to be on the hot seat for sustained periods, over and over.
Blagojevich would eat it up. Kirk likes to make deals in private and then get a headline now-and-then.
But Kirk’s other options aren’t good either.
1. Sit tight. If Kirk doesn’t lose IL-10 in 2010, he’ll almost certainly lose in 2012 b/c of redistricting.
2. Run for governor? Has Kirk ever shown an iota of interest in Springfield? Since Kirk has been elected to Congress, how many times has he been to Springfield.
3. Retire from elected office and become chair of the Illinois GOP. Kirk could land a cushy job at some Chicago law firm, right? Kirk could try to rebuild the party. How could he do worse than Andy McKenna, right? This option would allow Kirk to stage a comeback later when the trend is more favorable to the GOP.
4. Retire from politics and become a lobbyist. Kirk loves DC. He would be a natural fit for some military contractor. But there’s a glut of former GOP Congressmen shilling for military contractors. And what kind of living is it to shill for weapons systems that don’t work well?
5. Make a complete career shift? Corporate executive? Rent scuba equipment in the Caribbean? Director of a museum?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, May 1, 09 @ 4:16 pm
A potential Kennedy candidacy must have the other candidates shaking in their boots. Stay tuned on this one, folks.
Comment by There you go again Friday, May 1, 09 @ 4:38 pm
{…55% of independents said they approved of Barack Obama’s job performance. But when it came to the 2010 Senate race Mark Kirk led Alexi Giannoulias 36-25 among independents and had a 39-22 edge over Jan Schakowsky. In other words less than half of those independents who said they liked the job the President is doing are committed to voting for someone from his party to assume his old Senate seat next year.}
In the Cook County Townships that comprise the 10th district there were 225,000 votes cast for President, and 161,000 votes cast for the congressional race. (*The 10th only encompasses a portion of some of the territory that the presidential obvioulsy captures all of.)
Obama got 58.5% of the vote, and Kirk got 55.1% in these Townships. While there were 60,000 more votes in the presidential in these Townships, John McCain garnered 91,000 votes from this much larger universe, while Kirk got 89,000 votes from a much smaller voting universe.
Obama voters were voting for Kirk, and Kirk voters were voting for Obama.
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Friday, May 1, 09 @ 5:02 pm
I think Jan is kidding herself. I can’t see her winning statewide.
Comment by wordslinger Saturday, May 2, 09 @ 1:12 pm