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* From The Hill…
The poll, conducted for the Democratic House Majority PAC and SEIU, shows retired Gen. Bill Enyart (D) leading former lieutenant governor candidate Jason Plummer by 49 to 41 percent. The same poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 50 to 41, a slight dip from the 11-point margin of victory he had in the district four years ago.
* I’m not so sure I buy into those numbers totally because Obama is leading by so much in the poll. We Ask America’s polling from earlier this month had Obama ahead of Romney by just one point, 47-46, in the 618 area code. The area code covers a huge swath of Illinois, and the 12th is a Democratic-leaning district, but nine points is quite large, although, I suppose, not totally out of the question because the poll was conducted before the end of the Democratic convention.
We Ask America had this at 45-34 for Plummer back in July. But that was before many people knew who Enyart was.
* And Enyart is still struggling to get known, according to the Democrats’ own poll…
* Average the two known polls together and we get 43 for Plummer and 41.5 for Enyart. I’m hearing from other sources that this has indeed become a very close race, so the average may be nearer to what we actually have there.
*** UPDATE *** Plummer reacts…
Plummer dismissed the poll results during a conference call Wednesday morning.
“What we have here is, Nancy Pelosi has to save a little face and Bill Enyart and his liberal allies are doing what they can to carry a message that the voters of Southern Illinois just aren’t buying,” Plummer said. “The only number I’m concerned about is the 10-and-half percent unemployment rate that this district is facing.”
After I posted this story, I talked to some more people and I’m more convinced than ever that this is a very tight race.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:21 am
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The 12th District is much more Democratic than the 618 area code in general. The rest of 618 is mostly in the solidly Republican Shimkus district so it makes sense to me. Plus any lead that Plummer had was simply a result of name ID. Seems Enyart is on the rise. And I predict a Plummer implosion before long.
Comment by unreliable sources Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:31 am
Republicans were counting on this as a pickup. This combined w/ Duckworth running away, Foster doing really well against a generally well-liked incumbent, and Bustos looking like a real candidate and Dems look to be in pretty good shape here.
We’ll see if it sticks, but Dems’ numbers around the country look like they are improving significantly. Obama’s job approval numbers have jumped about 8 pts since the convention and held steady. What’s more surprising to me is that people seem to be more optimistic about the direction of the country based solely on Dem’s successful convention.
If Romney continues to implode this could be a runaway for Dems that no one anticipated.
Sidenote: What’s amazing about Romney is that he was clearly the GOP primary candidate with the best chance to win. That really says something about the Republican party.
Comment by LilLebowskiUrbanAchiever Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:35 am
Plummer just needs to get out there … ya know … speak …have people get to “know” him … Jason is an “open book”, so once everyone gets all the info on Jason, this race will be ALL Over …
Or … you hide the Heck out of Jason, get on the TV with some Ads … be very structured in his visability … nothing is done that is NOT scripted … and hope the 48 days go real fast.
Or .. Jason could just ask the Tooth Fairy, or Easter Bunny or the Power Rangers for their help, “real bad!”.
Any of the three MAY work …may …
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:35 am
Hard to imagine residents wouldn’t want a Major General representing them in D.C. and would choose an inexperienced rich kid instead. Of course this is Illinois.
Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:38 am
Enyart wouuld be wise to re-raise the income tax return issue now that Romney has brought it back into play with his 47% comments. Is Plummer a maker or a taker?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:44 am
===now that Romney has brought it back into play with his 47% comments===
That 47 percent is a whole lot of southern Illinois. They love them some government money down yonder.
But, it’s being used now as a dog whistle by the GOP, so it may not have the Democrats’ intended effect.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:57 am
===If Romney continues to implode ===
He’s not. However, down-ballot GOP candidates are showing signs of it. As I’ve told you before, Dems credit Paul Ryan’s pick for that. It may be more than that, though.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:59 am
If Plummer can’t buy the Lt. Gov’s office and then it turns out he can’t buy a congressional seat … boy I don’t like where this trend line is going.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:04 pm
I’m sure Plummer’s response will be “Daddy, buy me a poll that has ME leading!”
Comment by ChicagoR Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:07 pm
===They love them some government money down yonder.===
Agreed, except I suspect a high percentage of them, even though they’d be among the 47% Romney was referring to, don’t believe he was talking about them. For me, that’s the primary reason it might not be an effective play for the Democrats.
I thought this was an interesting take on what the GOP’s 47% philosophy is all about:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/we-are-all-welfare-queens-now/262512/
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:09 pm
Is Plummer even trying to buy the congressional seat. Doesn’t seem like he’s put in that much money.
I’d put money on Enyart. Romney’s latest won’t help in that district. Plus, Plummer is Plummer. Eventually, people will figure it out.
Comment by Disconnect Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:16 pm
Sad that many Republicans don’t realize Romney was talking about them too.
Comment by just sayin' Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:16 pm
So, the Democrat House Majority PAC does a poll in conjunction with SEIU and samples 400 people…and we’re supposed to take the results seriously? I think Rich’s assumption of an average between the two polls is probably more accurate. This will be a close race with lots of money poured in from both sides.
Comment by East Sider Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:18 pm
Hey, Captain, I’ll finish your thought for you: Jason Plummer = Jim Oberweis, redux.
Which is fine. Rich people wandering around, spending their own money (or Dad’s, in Jason’s case), helping the economy out, and yet never in a position to actually do us harm.
Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:18 pm
–That 47 percent is a whole lot of southern Illinois.–
It’s a whole lot of the South, solid Republican states, which makes the comment even more inexplicable.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/the-47-who-they-are-where-they-live-how-they-vote-and-why-they-matter/262506/
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:19 pm
===don’t believe he was talking about them===
As I also said, I agree with this.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:33 pm
Enyart is doing well because people are listening to the Retired General story, and not the Nancy Pelosi/Liberal Allie Story. Whether Enyart is a “Liberal Allie” or not the association with Pelosi game isnt winning any votes.
Comment by SO IL M Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:35 pm
Ryan represents a district near the Illinois border, there’s no crossover love for him the way there was for romney from neighboring mass in nh?
Comment by Shore Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:42 pm
===there’s no crossover love for him the way there was for romney from neighboring mass in nh? ===
No.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 12:44 pm
Willy kills me with the power rangers comment.. Thanks for ruining the MMPR with a Plummer comparison… Rich, I’m one of the valliant down-yonderers, if you find that govt cash handout hookup, send em my way.
Comment by Midstate Indy Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 2:37 pm
Looks like Romney’s gaffes have closed the enthusiasm gap between the parties and likely turnout by party is having a huge effect on state races across the country.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 2:43 pm
I don’t know about that poll. Based on that poll the race is over. With 10% undecided, and the general with a 9 point lead, dad will have to do some creative financing here as it’s all riding on the margin of error. Trust me the lumber pup will not get 9 of 10 of what’s left vs the beaver general. If that’s a good poll stick a fork in brady’s boy.
Comment by Madison Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 3:03 pm
“If Plummer can’t buy the Lt. Gov’s office and then it turns out he can’t buy a congressional seat … boy I don’t like where this trend line is going.”
@The Captain: When he eventually winds up in Springpatch, Plummer should form a caucus of two with Oberweis.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 4:01 pm
Plummer has to reference Pelosi, rather than discounting the poll results?
Can’t these GOP candidates deal with the issue at hand, without blaming one evil House Speaker or another?
Comment by walkinfool Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 4:34 pm
I think to say Romney is not imploding needs to come with the caveat that he sure isn’t exploding either. If he can’t make this thing happen at the first debate I think it is safe to say he won’t get another shot.
Comment by 618392dem Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 6:06 pm
Rich, please do a segment tomorrow with a “finish the campaign slogan” featuring Plummer/Oberweis 2014.
Plummer/Oberweis 2014….because some seats are worth buying.
Comment by Raaaalph Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 7:20 pm
Left of center guy who voted for Kirk for Congress once or twice and Kirk for Senate. That being said, it disappoints me greatly that an idiot like Plummer has a good shot of winning a congressional race and actually having some power.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 7:46 pm
I would like to say that Plummber stopped by my town, population 1,200 folks, went into what we call the “Shack”, a place where locals go, mostly retired men. He came met our mayor, and met all the men there. Sat down and visited. He was alone coming through our town. I Had voted Democrat for the past 6 years but this year I voted Republican in the primary, largerly because of this race in the 12th District. I support Plummber. Met him in a parade in Carterville. Which by the way Enyart was not in or even was represented. Carterville is home to John A. Logan college. I have nothing against Enyart but I feel Plummer would best represent our district.
Comment by thunder Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 8:33 pm
Wow. There are a lot of delusional Democrats blogging about this race today.
Plummer is no plum, but neither is Enyart. That Dem poll is a joke. It will be close, but the young dummy has an edge.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 8:52 pm
===…but the young dummy has an edge.===
JazzyP is about as edgy as a kumquat. Personally, I can think of several comparisons between these two inanimate objects, but in the spirit of personal choice, I’ll let each draw their own conclusions..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/kumquat
Comment by Midstate Indy Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:07 pm
General Enyart needs to stay on the not-releasing-taxes issue and get Plummer into an exchange on foreign policy, where Enyart’s greater knowledge and experience will become clear.
Comment by RFK fan Wednesday, Sep 19, 12 @ 11:51 pm