On the eve of President Barack Obama’s acceptance speech to the Democratic National Convention last week, a statewide poll showed the native son was leading his Republican opponent by 17 percentage points in Illinois.
The poll of 1,382 likely Illinois voters was taken Sept, 5 by We Ask America. It had Obama at 54 percent to Mitt Romney’s 37 percent. Another 3.3 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate and 6 percent were undecided.
That’s way below where Obama was four years ago, when he won Illinois with 62 percent of the vote.
If you look at the 17-point spread between the two candidates, it’s a blowout, although not as big as Obama’s gigantic 25-point victory in 2008.
If you look at where Obama’s numbers are now, you might consider that this race could tighten up quite a bit, at least compared with 2008. The spread is generally how polls are judged in the end, so if you’re a Republican, you probably shouldn’t get your hopes up too much.
According to the poll, Obama leads among Illinois women 59 percent to 32 percent and even leads among men by a 48 to 43 margin. However, exit polling from 2008 showed that Obama won women by 29 points and men by 15 points, so he’s doing about the same with women but not as well with men.
The survey, which has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, has Obama with a huge 80 percent to 11 percent lead in Chicago. Some top Republicans have been saying they believed Romney could hit close to 20 percent in the city, which would give them a shot at being competitive statewide.
That’s highly doubtful, according to this poll. However, four years ago Obama won Chicago with 85 percent, so he’s not yet doing quite as well as he did then.
Obama leads Romney in suburban Cook County by a substantial 60 to 30 margin. But again, that’s not as wide as 2008 when he won the region by 34 points. Suburban Cook is the location of a ton of hotly contested congressional and state legislative races, so the Democrats will need all the help they can get from the president.
Obama’s 30-point lead is a whole lot better than Gov. Pat Quinn’s 14-point margin two years ago, when the Democrats lost seats at the congressional and state levels.
Obama did quite well in Chicago’s collar counties four years ago, winning many by large margins. But he now leads by just 2 percentage points in the region, 47 to 45, with 6 percent undecided. Most of those counties contain all or part of many targeted races this time around, and Romney could be a significant factor there.
The president slightly trails Romney in the sprawling downstate region, getting 45 percent to Romney’s 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided, the poll says. There are a lot of hotly contested state legislative races downstate, and Republicans are confident that they can pick up some seats there.
Congressional and state legislative polling has shown that southern Illinois is where the president is struggling the most compared to four years ago. The We Ask America poll shows Obama with a slight lead of 47 percent to 46 percent in the 618 area code, which includes all of southern Illinois. That’s far below where he was four years ago.
The poll does show a few ways that Romney can increase his standing in Illinois and impact more races farther down on the ballot. Just 80 percent of self-described Republicans are supporting him versus 88 percent of Democrats who say they’re backing Obama. If and when those Republican voters finally “come home,” Romney’s numbers will go up.
Romney also has a slight, one-point lead among those who say they’re independent voters, who tend to lean Republican. He can probably expect more support from that group.
None of those avenues point to an actual Illinois win for Romney, who probably won’t be spending much cash in the state, particularly in the expensive Chicago media market.
Romney could run ads in the St. Louis area, which could help some Metro East Republicans. But Romney will need to target most of his campaign money for the all-important swing states, so most GOP candidates in Illinois won’t see much of an impact.
- western illinois - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:03 am:
Romney pulled out of PA and MI . I only see him spending in Iowa which he and Obama are doing a lot of. The Quad Cities market is stuarated with Obama,Romney and now joined by Schilling and Bustos
Do you have any breakdown in this part of the state to see if the ads are having an Illinois impact?
Otherwise I think maybe some superpacs may come in for those candiates. I think the Dem GA candidates in 618 may be in trouble and the dems will add some US House seats
- amalia - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:25 am:
why did Romney pull out of PA and MI?
- Slick Willy - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:37 am:
***why did Romney pull out of PA and MI?***
+1. I read the Free Press every day and there have been a steady stream of articles over the last several months where the Romney campaign is providing assurances to MI voters that they are not going to pull out of MI.
- wordslinger - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:49 am:
I can’t imagine Romney spending a dime in Illinois except in the Quads for Iowa consumption. He has a lot of wood to chop elsewhere.
I thought Obama would be doing worse in the 618. Cairo is as close to Birmingham as it is Chicago.
- UISer - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:51 am:
Hope Rich doesn’t get offended by my copying and pasting. The national site I read is Political Wire, of course the Illinois site I read is good old Cap Fax. This is what they wrote on September 7th about the new ads Romney has launched.
“The intensity and geographic spread of Romney’s advertising is a show of force for the GOP nominee, and the state-specific targeting is also a shift from Romney’s ultra-nationalized message, so far. If Romney’s financial advantage is going to move the dial against Barack Obama, this is the moment for that to happen: between the huge earned-media opportunity and the huge earned-media opportunity of the debates, when money and traditional political advertising has the best chance of breaking through.”
Most interesting: Romney is still not running ads in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. The battleground did not expand.”
- NW Illinois - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:52 am:
The Obama Campaign’s lack of a moderate, Clinton message (see current issue of Newsweek about the absence of Clinton message in Obama Campaign) is helping Romney in places like downstate Illinois.
- amalia - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 9:56 am:
I’m still confused about whether or not Romney pulled out of MI and PA, even after reading Slick Willy and UISer. so, Western Illinois, what is your source about Romney pulling out? and what does that mean? in one scenario, it means that they need not to put effort in to win. what do the polls in those states say?
- wordslinger - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:03 am:
Amalia, USA Today had a story last week that the Romney campaign had yet to buy general election spots in Michigan and Pennsylvania, leading some to speculate he wasn’t going to contest the states.
The Romney campaign was quoted as saying they intend to buy ads in those states soon.
- Shore - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:03 am:
The nightmare for Illinois Republicans 4 years ago (and what I worried about) was that Obama would have a successful first term, the party would nominate someone like Michele bachmann and things would disintegrate with obama winning upper 60’s and wiping the party out to sea for a generation. This isn’t great for the Republican party and Romney won’t win the state, but it’s a B+ situation and I am sure something the party would have taken without hesitation 4 years ago on election night.
- UISer - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:05 am:
Amalia,
Here is another sources from the Hill.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/247931-presidential-campaigns-off-the-air-in-battleground-states-as-polls-remain-static
Says Romney hasn’t aired ads in Penn since April, and his Super PAC pulled out of Michigan last week. So no Super PAC or Romney presence in either state.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:46 am:
Politico says the race is about 9 states, IA, NV, CO, NC, NH, OH, WI, VA and the big one, FL. That doesn’t mean Romney or the pro-Romney super PACs won’t be up in MI or PA, but it does mean that unless they can improve considerably in the nine states that are toss-ups, it won’t matter what happens in MI or PA.
Romney’s money advantage will certainly help, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts ads up in these nine plus PA and MI, but unless they see some movement in the state polls, it will be wasted money. FL is a must-win. Nothing else really matters at this point.
- wordslinger - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:51 am:
Florida is the ballgame for Romney. The paths to victory without it are not reasonable.
- mokenavince - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:57 am:
Word hit the nail right on the head Florida is the ballgame. Obama wins there it’s over.
- amalia - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 11:19 am:
thanks you for the specifics, Wordslinger and UISer.
- UISer - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 12:06 pm:
I’d also argue that Ohio can be the nail in the coffin. If he loses Ohio he has to make up votes in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado. Where Obama only needs to carry Wisconsin and maybe Iowa or NEw Hampshire.
- UISer - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 12:07 pm:
By the way, I know this isn’t a national blog, but it fin to talk about the presidential race with intellegent people. I can’t stand comments on newspaper message boards.
- just sayin' - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 12:50 pm:
The only money Romney will ever spend in Illinois is whatever goes for gas for the motorcade to get to the fundraiser from O’Hare. It’s a 100% cash mining operation where Illinois is concerned. Everything goes OUT. Surely everyone realizes that.
- western illinois - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 12:51 pm:
My source was last Sundays( week ago yesterday) NYT ad spending map. It is about those 8 or 9 states. Daily Kos a liberal site has had ongoing discussion about Romney temporaily pulling out of OH . They also report he went dark in NV. There are new PPP polls that show a 5 point Obama lead in OH but that poll could be off a little because it showed Romney with 15% of the AA vote so maybe those leaked stories about internal polls showing a 9 point lead
Rush was really hysterical today going on about those polls how bad a candidate Romney was . How the CPS strike was an Obama plot. After I heard that I was sure the stories must be accurate
- UISer - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 1:03 pm:
I think I also read that Obama has put money into national Cable/Satelite ads. Romeny has not. For instance, I see the Bill Clinton ad a lot while watching TV shows. That will reach people in non-swing states. Don’t know if it is needed or not.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 3:18 pm:
Rich -
Nate Silver over at 538 has Obama getting 61.5% in Illinois, based on all available polling.
Nate’s got a great site, his statistical analysis is probably the most rigorous, and if he’s right, Obama won’t end up too far off his 2008 mark in Illinois…if at all.
My guess is that our Commander-in-Chief will do much better among veterans, active military, and their families than he did in ‘08, which will help make up for any lost ground elsewhere.
Democrats would be wise to reinforce the President’s message with some veterans’ themes of their own.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 3:47 pm:
===Nate Silver over at 538 has Obama getting 61.5% in Illinois, based on all available polling.===
Yeah, but that’s hedged by ±5.5 percentage points.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 10, 12 @ 10:11 pm:
Illinois, like Texas during the Bush years and Georgia during the Carter years, does not reflect much reality during the presidential races in which their native sons participate.
Gore was an abberation, losing Tennessee in 2000, but most native states are exuberant over their presidential candidates, Illinois is no exception.
BTW, Massachusetts doesn’t look like it will be won by it’s native son this November.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 12:27 am:
True, Rich.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 11, 12 @ 1:03 am:
47th Ward -
I think the Latino demographics and housing crisis are working too hard against Mitt in Nevada, and as was highlighted in the Convention, the auto industry is working too hard against Mitt in Ohio.
Assuming that Ohio and Nevada both go for Obama, which seems highly likely, that leaves seven states in play.
If Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire, both of which he is leading, he’s re-elected.
If he wins any one of the remaining five - Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida - he also is re-elected. He’s held a narrow but consistent lead in all but North Carolina, where he’s trailed slightly but is now tied.
I think the most likely scenario is that he wins all of the battleground states except North Carolina and Virginia, although Virginia could surprisingly be swung his way by the military vote.