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* From a newspaper column I wrote last May…
Our downward [Illinois population] trajectory has often been demoralizing, but even more so during the past decade as professional naysayers trumpeted annual Census estimates that showed huge, six-figure population losses.
By December 2020, those annual Census estimates showed Illinois had lost about 240,000 people, or 2% of its population.
“Illinois is a deepening population sinkhole flanked by states that are adding people, businesses, jobs,” the Chicago Tribune editorial board opined. “The estimated Illinois population is 12,587,530, down more than 240,000 since the 2010 census. That’s more than Waukegan and Naperville, combined.” […]
When the official 2020 Census count showed those previous estimates were wildly wrong and Illinois’ net population loss was “only” 18,000 people, those same folks either changed the subject or harrumphed that, whatever the case, Illinois was still a net loser and had fallen to the rank of sixth-largest state behind Pennsylvania. […]
As you probably know by now, the Census Bureau admitted last week that it had screwed up Illinois’ decennial headcount, and the state actually grew by about 250,000 people – that’s almost a 500,000-person swing from the December 2020 estimate.
* Those wildly wrong annual estimates in the past should’ve injected some skepticism into the Census Bureau’s latest numbers dump. But some news media outlets are buying the recently released annual numbers hook line and sinker. SJ-R…
New estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show Illinois lost a population the near equivalent of Springfield in 2022, continuing a nine-year population slide in the Land of Lincoln.
The report found Illinois subtracted more than 104,000 from its ranks this year going from 12.6 million to 12.5 million residents. The population loss of 0.8% was the third-highest behind New York and California and was among the 18 states that lost population this year. Driving that loss primarily was the 141,656 people migrating out of the state.
WLS…
Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski joins the Steve Cochran Show to talk about what caused 104,000 people to leave Illinois in 2021, how the “Workers’ Right Amendment” may deter businesses from coming to Illinois, and what will make people stay in Illinois.
*Facepalm*
WTVO…
Illinois’ population shrunk for the 9th year in a row from 2021 to 2022, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The report said that the Land of Lincoln lost more than 104,000 residents this year, according to the Journal Star. That brought the state’s population from 12.6 million to 12.5 million, the third-highest drop behind New York and California. Illinois was one of only 18 states that lost population this year.
Just dumb.
* US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has repeatedly called on the US Census Bureau to reexamine its methodology and get its act together. Raja did it again today…
Robert Santos
Director
U.S. Census Bureau
4600 Silver Hill Road
Washington, DC 20233Dear Director Santos:
In light of last month’s Census Bureau announcement concerning population estimates, I’m writing to express my ongoing concerns surrounding the repeated undercounting of the population of Illinois in the American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2020 Census, as assessed by the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES). Fundamentally, this latest release’s claim that Illinois lost a substantial number of residents in 2022 appears to closely echo the previous ACS and Census results that fueled misleading rhetoric surrounding purported population losses in Illinois which were later revealed to be unfounded by the PES.
In my repeated letters sent last year, I requested information on the ACS and Census data which showed Illinois population losses of substantially different orders, only for the May PES to conclude that 14 states had an undercount or overcount in the Census and that Illinois was among them with an undercount of hundreds of thousands of people. Beyond discrediting years of false rhetoric about Illinois population losses driven by Census Bureau products, these findings also raise serious public questions in my state over the credibility of the Census Bureau’s results more broadly because of the substantially different conclusions of its recent releases regarding our state. Census Bureau undercounting of our state poses potentially enormous financial consequences for Illinois because over the next decade, Census Bureau data will be utilized to allocate roughly $1.5 trillion through approximately 100 programs, including Medicaid, SNAP, Medicare, Highway Planning and Construction, and Pell grants.
In your June response to my letters with colleagues on this matter, you wrote that regarding incorporating PES findings into data products that inform funding allocations that, “the Census Bureau has established a team of experts tasked with researching the feasibility of taking coverage measures from the Demographic Analysis and Post-Enumeration Survey into account in the development of the official population estimates.” Additionally, in response to the question of whether the Bureau would commit to utilizing the PES in deriving Population Estimates from the Decennial Census, you wrote, “While too early to commit to incorporating PES into the population estimates, the Census Bureau is researching the feasibility of taking coverage measures from both the Demographic Analysis and Post-Enumeration Survey into account in the development of the official population estimates.”
Last month, I wrote to request clarity on the implementation of PES findings into population estimates, the timeline for doing so, and related efforts to address the repeated undercounting of Illinois. In addition to renewing my request for that information, I request answers to these additional questions by January 20th:
1. Were coverage measures from the May 2022 Demographic Analysis and Post-Enumeration Survey results which showed Illinois’ population growth accounted for in the December 2022 population estimates, or did the methodology omit these considerations while following the previous ACS and Census approaches. which led to the undercounting of Illinois’ population?
2. If coverage measures from last year’s Demographic Analysis and Post-Enumeration Survey have not yet been incorporated into annual population estimates, when will they be?
3. Were any other new efforts undertaken to address the consistent undercounting of the population of Illinois in producing the December 2022 population estimates?
4. Have any new factors been identified as contributing to the repeated undercounting of Illinois?
…Adding… From the governor’s office…
For the last decade, the narrative that Illinois is losing population was fed, by what turned out to be, inaccurate annual preliminary estimates. As the last official census count proved, Illinois’ population remained stable. When the official census results were studied further and corrected, Illinois’ population actually grew. While we will study these preliminary numbers, the context regarding their accuracy is important.
Illinois remains one of the most populous states in the nation and long term trends remain encouraging. In 2022, Illinois’ international migration nearly tripled from 2021 and the state also experienced growth due to natural changes. Illinois is on a positive trajectory by reaching $1 trillion GDP for the first time, creating more business start-ups than any other populous state. Looking ahead the state remains focused on providing long-term, meaningful support for residents and communities through unparalleled infrastructure investments, support for our workforce, and businesses that call Illinois home.
* A sampling of some past coverage…
* US Census admits it undercounted Illinois population by 2 percent
* Will the revised Census numbers change anything?
* Democrats in Illinois delegation press for answers from Census Bureau
* An eerily prescient 1997 prediction from the US Census Bureau
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 1:25 pm
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If Rich is right, Illinois has not lost population. If anything, it may not have grown as fast as other states, and regardless, the official enumeration led to us having fewer Representatives in the U.S. House.
If the others are correct, the myth has worked.
Comment by H-W Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 1:41 pm
–should’ve injected some skepticism–
That’s being far too polite.
They were only ever estimates to begin with, but were being treated as if these were rock solid empirical numbers to be used in decision making.
That there isn’t ever a mention of the margin of error in these, for lack of a better word, stories - is another problem I have with reporting like this.
That there still isn’t any mention of the margin of error, especially a large error such as this, is a continuance of the same problems in reporting from the start.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 1:45 pm
The only fact I know?
If Wirepoints thought they could grift on Illinois adding people, they’d say Illinois added people.
But, Wirepoints grifts on the idea of population loss…
Wirepoints takes Visa, MasterCard, EFTs, money orders…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 1:47 pm
The census numbers are estimated and are not based on a real count. For 30 years I had a county job where knowing population and breakdowns were important for planning and resource allotment. First decade I paid attention to the yearly numbers made adjustments etc. Then when the next census came out I discovered all the yearly estimates were wrong and not even close. I became very cautious about using them and for all three decades they were inaccurate and not even close. This was for a downstate county of approximately 110,000. I am now a researcher and evaluator. Census yearly estimates in my experience in county I worked in were significantly inaccurate therefore not reliable or valid.
Comment by Almost retired Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 1:48 pm
For those folks who don’t want to live here I’d like kindly remind you that there is a source of fresh water nearby.
Comment by Jerry Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 1:54 pm
The estimates are just estimates and have been often wrong. Really wrong to the point of not taking them seriously. Only the official number out every 10 years is worth anything. Plus, we have no idea how many migrants are going to settle in Illinois in the coming years. No one knows. Whether a big amnesty is coming no one can predict but I do expect many more buses from Texas. To think otherwise is naive.
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 2:21 pm
Usually it’s the small dollar contributions he hoards, but I also trust Raja’s counting people skills.
Comment by P Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 3:10 pm
Jerry 1:54 - Yup, and even Oswego Willy’s gonna be drinking from it now!
https://www.oswegoil.org/i-want-to/learn-about/new-water-source-594
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 3:26 pm
The estimate that Illinois’ population was undercounted by 1.97%, or about 250,000, was the midpoint provided in the survey. The population could have been undercounted by as much as 440,000 people, or 3.43%, or as little as 65,000 people, or 0.51%, the survey showed. Too many people didn’t read the study and just ran with bad math.
Comment by ste_with a v_en Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 3:54 pm
Rich, I usually think when you finally put aside your personal biases, you usually fairly analyze issues. Your ongoing obfuscation on this issue is not one. PES vs actual census is like knocking on all the doors in town vs doing a half ass every few houses or so.
“Out of a sample size of 161,000 housing units for the 2020 PES, the Census Bureau completed 114,000 interviews.”
That’s for the entire country folks. I’ll take the census results, and twice on Sunday.
And you think there was political bias? IL squealing about PES results showing undercount of less than 2%. PES for FL showed undercount of 3.5%.
Comment by ESR Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 7:54 pm
===And you think there was political bias? ===
Where have I ever said that? Try not to read my mind.
Also, bite me.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 8:01 pm
===PES vs actual census is like knocking on all the doors in town vs doing a half ass every few houses or so. ===
Exactly! Which is why I’ve been complaining so much about how the news media has used those goofy annual reports to paint a bleak picture.
How it’s possible that you have misread this post so badly is simply beyond me.
But, again, bite me.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 5, 23 @ 8:13 pm