* In May of 1997, after more than 20 years of Republican Illinois governors, the US Census Bureau laid out its predictions of the states that would have the highest net loss of population due to interstate migration in the 30-year period between 1995 and 2025 per 1,000 people…
New York -9
* From that report…
While Americans frequently move among the states… Florida, Texas, and North Carolina will each gain 1 million or more persons over the 30-year period through net interstate migration, with Florida gaining nearly 4 million. Georgia and Washington will each gain slightly less than 1 million. Four states will have a net loss of at least 1 million persons to other states. New York will lose 5.0 million; California, 4.4 million; Illinois, 1.7 million; and Michigan, 1.1 million. Over the 1995-2025 period, nearly one-quarter billion people are projected to move from one state to another. […]
California is projected to add the largest number of international migrants (more than 8 million). … Other states projected to have gains of 1 million or more from immigration are New York, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois, and Texas.
International immigration slowed way down under President Trump and then because of COVID, which has obviously hurt Illinois, and that may have been partly why the 1997 projection was off by about a hundred thousand people when the Census estimated Illinois’ 2020 population to be 13.121 million. As you know, the latest corrected Census number has Illinois right around 13 million.
* Point being, the fundamentals have been against Illinois for a very long time. This ain’t a new issue. And maybe some folks in Massachusetts should take a look at that 1997 report as well.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the governor’s office…
Governor Pritzker today urged President Joe Biden and the federal government to ensure that Illinois receives federal funding that reflects its growth of 250,000 residents, lifting the state’s population to more than 13 million for the first time in its history.
Illinois’s population was undercounted by roughly 2% in the 2020 census. The adjusted Census results show an increase in Illinois’ population as people move to the state in pursuit of expanded economic and employment opportunities.
“Illinois is growing, and our federal funding should reflect that reality,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “Nearly 250,000 Illinoisans—the majority of whom are from historically disenfranchised and underserved communities—were not represented in the Census results. That’s why I have urged President Biden and the federal government to ensure that the local communities of Illinois receive the federal dollars they are entitled to—and deserve. I thank the President for his commitment to an accurate Census count, and I look forward to working with him to guarantee that our state secures its fair share of federal funding.”
Governor Pritzker’s letter to President Biden calls for adjusted population counts to be considered when allocating over $1.5 trillion in federal funds for Medicare, affordable housing, homeland security, and other essential programs. Census undercounts often disservice Black, Latino, and minority residents who are historically underserved by federal resources such as these, making the correct appropriation of these funds even more important. The letter requests that President Biden support any efforts to factor the new data into equitable funding allocations.
The Census Bureau’s Post Enumeration Survey (PES) is a follow-up survey to the census count meant to examine the results for accuracy through additional statistical sampling. The original census count, which inaccurately showed a population decline, resulted in Illinois losing one congressional seat, making accurate appropriation of funds even more essential to ensure Illinoisans can access the resources they need over the next decade.
This updated count reflects Illinois’s rising status in the region and the country as a site of innovation and opportunity. Increased investment by the Pritzker administration in training and apprenticeship programs in manufacturing and aviation have created jobs and attracted new residents across the state.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Monique Garcia on behalf of the Illinois Municipal League…
As you continue to cover what the Census undercount means for Illinois, I wanted to bring your attention to this letter from the Illinois Municipal League to Gov. JB Pritzker seeking clarification about whether the administration intends to ensure municipalities are made whole for the purposes of state-shared revenues. The letter also raises the need to address the pending loss of population-established home rule authority in several communities across the state, which could be resolved if corrections to undercounts are made.
The letter is here.