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*** UPDATED x1 *** Will the revised Census numbers change anything?

Friday, May 20, 2022

* Background is here if you need it. Good point…


* From the Sun-Times coverage

GOP leaders in the General Assembly could not immediately be reached for comment. […]

Laurence Msall, president of the budget watchdog group The Civic Federation estimated the state could receive at least $100 million in additional federal funding based on the new population data.

“So many of our formulas are based on population,” Msall said. “This is really good news for Illinois.”

Oddly enough, the Census stories were not mentioned on a few websites notorious for trumpeting the state’s population loss, including ChicagoTribune.com. But Rodney Davis chimed in

“Gov. Pritzker and the Democrats who run state government should not use this news as a license to continue their tax hikes, corruption, and pro-criminal policies,” Rep. Rodney Davis said in a statement to Playbook.

Dude knows how to get his message out there, I suppose.

…Adding… US Rep. Davis’ spokesperson sent me the full quote he submitted to Politico…

“Given these updated Census numbers, I will continue to advocate in Congress that Illinois gets its fair share of federal resources. For years, I have worked to fix unfair formulas for federal programs, including those for Medicaid and transportation, which have limited the amount of federal dollars the State of Illinois should otherwise receive.

“At the same time, Governor Pritzker and the Democrats who run state government should not use this news as a license to continue their tax hikes, corruption, and pro-criminal policies. Pritzker’s Far-Left agenda is limiting Illinois’ great potential.”

* But it’s not clear that the new numbers will bring any extra federal revenue to Illinois

The results do not change the official population numbers of any state, nor do they affect congressional reapportionment, but they do help guide the bureau in its planning for the next decennial census.

* More from Capitol News Illinois

The survey data released Thursday did not identify the causes of undercounts or overcounts within any particular state, nor did it identify the cities, counties or regions within a state where the count may have been inaccurate.

On a national level, however, officials said undercounts generally occur within the Black population, Hispanic or Latino population, American Indian and Alaska Native populations living on reservations and the demographic group that reported being of “some other race.” […]

They also noted that the 2020 census undercounted children, especially young children ages 0-4.

*** UPDATE *** Krishnamoorthi writes to Secretary Raimondo…

May 20, 2022

Gina Raimondo
Secretary of Commerce
U.S. Department of Commerce
1401 Constitution Ave NW Washington, DC 20230

Dear Secretary Raimondo:

I’m writing with regard to yesterday’s release of the U.S. Census Bureau’s release of the 2020 Census estimated undercount and overcount rates by state and the District of Columbia from the Post- Enumeration Survey (PES) which found that 14 states are estimated to have had an undercount or overcount, including my state of Illinois which was undercounted by 1.97 percent. This follows my January 13th, 2022 letter to Census Bureau Director Santos, in which I expressed similar concerns about the bureau’s undercounting and methodological issues in response previous undercounting issues in Illinois.

In light of this major revelation and the implications for Illinois and other states having been significantly undercounted, please provide answers to the following questions:

    1. What is the mechanism and timeline by which the apportionment of federal resources will reflect this new data?
    2. What additional data is available with regard to the undercounting of Illinois?
    3. While the report discusses general factors for undercounts across the country, what specific factors contributed to the undercount in Illinois?

Sincerely,
Raja Krishnamoorthi Member Of Congress

Good questions.

…Adding… Pritzker campaign…

“Since day one, Governor Pritzker has championed Illinois. His commitment to fiscal responsibility, rebuilding our critical infrastructure, investing in job creation, and delivering tax relief has encouraged residents to come to Illinois to live, work and raise families,” said JB for Governor Spokesperson Natalie Edelstein. “Every single Republican running for governor has built a campaign on fraudulent claims badmouthing Illinois and must face the truth: due to Governor Pritzker’s strong leadership, Illinois has a positive financial outlook, an influx of residents and, for the first time in a long time, is on the rise.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

45 Comments
  1. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:39 am:

    ==On a national level, however, officials said undercounts generally occur within the Black population, Hispanic or Latino population, American Indian and Alaska Native populations living on reservations and the demographic group that reported being of “some other race.”==

    How much longer before a comment or another lawsuit threat by MALDEF or another group objecting to the maps last year?


  2. - Precinct Captain - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:52 am:

    - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:39 am:

    These aren’t block level counts


  3. - Fixer - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:54 am:

    At least one of the usual suspects is trying to spin to to make their stories work. At least two folks from IPI are trying to push the outmigration issue.


  4. - Cannon649 - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:54 am:

    On a national basis red states were under counted and big blue states had badly over counted. Given current leadership and the fact they wrote the report I do not anything will formally change.


  5. - Precinct Captain - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:58 am:

    Cannon649 - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 10:54 am:

    The blue states of Utah and Ohio? Put down the joint.


  6. - 47th Ward - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 11:01 am:

    ===Oddly enough, the Census stories were not mentioned on a few websites notorious for trumpeting the state’s population loss, including ChicagoTribune.com.===

    Cognitive dissonance is a (deleted).


  7. - Commissar Gritty - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 11:03 am:

    Just going to staple this Rob Martwick tweet to the forehead of any IL Policy Institute dork that comes knocking. Cheers


  8. - Eric Zorn - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 11:07 am:

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-illinois-population-census-exodus-20201222-ukwt63e6gvh3xnnvgzoidmx6su-story.html

    Tribune Editorial Dec 22, 2020 : Illinois is a deepening population sinkhole flanked by states that are adding people, businesses, jobs.…

    So tell us again, Democratic power brokers who rule Illinois. Tell us what great jobs you’re doing. Tell us that these worsening annual population losses aren’t an indictment of anti-jobs, high-spending policies. Tell us it’s just snowbirds fleeing the weather here. Tell us you need to keep raising taxes.

    Tell us again that you won’t let the rest of us amend our constitution to limit the unmanageable growth of public pension benefits going forward. Tell us Illinoisans, don’t move away because of high property taxes or high government debt burdens. Tell us these numbers are meaningless small percentages and it’s no big deal. Shrug it off.

    And tell us that as budgets continue to bloat, Illinois will have enough taxpayers to cover the enormous debts that you’ve created — and that you’re expanding in their name.

    The rest of us see this intensifying population drop. We also see that the drop is accelerating.


  9. - Cool Papa Bell - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 11:26 am:

    Will anything change, No.

    The state is still full of self-haters and there is nothing we can do about that. Continue good policy, let the best parts of Chicago lead the state and ignore the rest.

    An aside - were the numbers broken out by city, region ect? Because I’d wager the growth wasn’t shared equally around the state.


  10. - vern - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 11:34 am:

    So the “Illinois Exodus,” centerpiece of Republican messaging for the last 10 years, didn’t actually happen. They couldn’t even make it a self-fulfilling prophecy, because the Republican voters who moved out after hearing the messaging still didn’t tilt the numbers into negative territory.

    Illinois Republicans tried being the party of voters who don’t live in Illinois, and shockingly that didn’t win them many Illinois elections. Maybe it’s a crazy idea, but have they thought about trying to win votes from people who do live here?


  11. - Grandson of Man - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 11:38 am:

    “At least two folks from IPI are trying to push the outmigration issue.”

    Their spelunking has hurt us with credit ratings, etc., but it didn’t stop our population from growing. Now it’s time for the Illinois doom movement to go belly-up. But it’s a task shouldered by one party only, to change the narrative and image. The other is heavily invested in negativity, literally voting against a budget, and to starve the state of funding, again.

    It’s time now for those who’ve helped improve Illinois to roll up their sleeves and get to work on improving our image, to do the difficult and tedious work of messaging and narrative-shaping.


  12. - Ste_with_a_v_en - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:08 pm:

    We can always conduct a special census https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/specialcensus/how_to_conduct.html#:~:text=Work%20with%20your%20community%20planner,to%20the%20U.S.%20Census%20Bureau.


  13. - TheInvisibleMan - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:08 pm:

    Reality always wins.

    Even when it’s incredibly annoying having to live through in real-time those trying to ignore it for personal gain.


  14. - Sonny - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:18 pm:

    Years of pumping hot trash Mark Glennon, IPI, Trib Editorial Board etc. — should be real proud of yourselves.


  15. - JS Mill - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    =let the rest of us amend our constitution to limit the unmanageable growth of public pension benefits going forward=

    Umm, the debt was created by both republican and democratic regimes over the last century. It is a debt owed. And Teir 2.

    Get a new motherboard


  16. - Sir Reel - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:24 pm:

    Population goes down, cut taxes. Population goes up, cut taxes. Economy goes down, cut taxes. Economy goes up, cut taxes. Etc, etc.

    Think I’ve got the Republican playbook down.


  17. - Baloneymous - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:29 pm:

    Eric Zorn, you should email your resume directly to the Illinois Policy Institute rather than post it on this blog. They don’t like ratings upgrades, population increases, unions or pensions either. Thanks.


  18. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:36 pm:

    - Baloneymous -

    Zorn was taking a potshot at the Trib, his former employer, for being spelunkers of misery


  19. - Big Dipper - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:36 pm:

    ==The state is still full of self-haters==

    Why don’t they just leave? People who whine but do nothing about their discontent are tiresome.


  20. - Annonin' - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:50 pm:

    “For years, I have worked to fix unfair formulas for federal programs, including those for Medicaid and transportation,” ….in fairness to Rodney he did try to change the FEMA formula for IL cities hit by disaster. The problem he failed. Close does not count.


  21. - OH - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 12:56 pm:

    Having canvassed on behalf of several suburban Democratic candidates the last few cycles, the “Illinois Exodus” question was something I struggled to answer at the doors. It really seamed to resonate with high-information swing voters because it was a simple, *seemingly* data-driven narrative that indicated the state was in trouble.

    As such, I would really emphasize the corrected numbers if I were JB. Population growth talking points would be in my ads by next week if I were him.


  22. - twowaystreet - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 1:02 pm:

    ==No one in hell actually believes IL gained population over the past two years.==

    Well, obviously, it wouldn’t be the first time they’d made mistakes. Those in heaven universally agree Illlinois’ population has increased, according to recent polls.


  23. - twowaystreet - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 1:03 pm:

    Also, the population increase is over the past decade, not the last two years.


  24. - Jibba - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 1:09 pm:

    ===actually believes IL gained population===

    Solutions are so clear when you make your conclusions before looking at the data.


  25. - supplied_demand - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 1:30 pm:

    ==No one in hell actually believes IL gained population over the past two years. ==

    Doubling down on the same talking point debunked in this very thread. Interesting tactic.


  26. - Juice - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 1:33 pm:

    ===No one in hell actually believes IL gained population over the past two years.===

    But here on earth, the numbers are what they are. But thanks for reporting on what places outside of earth choose to believe based on their feelings. Much appreciated.


  27. - Roman - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 2:18 pm:

    == Just because the census bureau says something does not make it true or fact. ==

    Sorry, dude…if you’re gonna live by the sword, you have to die by it too. You can’t spend years holding up census data as gospel and then turn around and say it’s unreliable when it no longer suits your political narrative.


  28. - twowaystreet - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 2:31 pm:

    ==The last two years should show the state census #s in every state are likely off.==

    If you’d read the report you’d know that in 36 states they pretty much got it right on 2020 Census.

    And you are aware that they didn’t redo the census two years later? This is a survey, much smaller in scale than a full blown census, where the entire purpose is to figure out what they got right and wrong on the 2020 Census.

    You should at least educate yourself on what the report is for before claiming it’s false because the Census Bureau did it.

    And don’t try to say it’s politically motivated. The Acting Director, until Santos’ recent appointment, started his role as Deputy Director under the Trump administration.

    Also, the post enumeration process has been ongoing since the census ended. These numbers were not just numbers they had lying around since 2020 that they all of sudden decided to release yesterday.


  29. - twowaystreet - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 2:33 pm:

    ==I’m saying the last two years have shown major outmigration of Blue states.==

    Send me a link to that report, please.


  30. - Fixer - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 2:38 pm:

    Ah, I see we have a special guest from the IPI school of thought in Politics Drives Policy. If you’re going to try to use their source to show net out migration, might want to remember that the original numbers they used were from the original census and was published in December 2021. Whatever number is there, you’ll need to add 250k to the starting point. In which case, Illinois still remains net positive.


  31. - Fixer - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    “I don’t trust census numbers” as you use census numbers as the basis of your entire argument. Please tell me you see the irony there at least.


  32. - twowaystreet - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 2:48 pm:

    ==The broader point being I don’t trust the census #s as a an accurate picture of where things stand today in 2022. Forgive me for being a skeptic.==

    There are literally zero people saying that this report published by the Census Bureau is reflective of 2022. The whole point of the report is to review a census that happened in 2020.

    Also, Roman has a point. You are saying we can’t trust reports from the Bureau while backing up your point with reports from the Bureau.

    In that report they estimate IL lost 122,460 people from 2020-21. So, if we adjust the 2020 Census number based on the 1.97% undercount the state still has 130,000 more people than it did in 2010.

    Still a net gain.


  33. - Nick - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:00 pm:

    The most interesting question to me is where the undercount occurred. Given the census still originally showed Chicagoland growing and the rest of the state shrinking; was that even more intense, was downstate undercounted, a combination of both?


  34. - twowaystreet - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:03 pm:

    Relevant to point out since 2020 we’ve lost almost 40,000 people to COVID in Illinois.

    So, we know 1/3 of that population loss is people who didn’t leave for lower taxing states.


  35. - ArchPundit - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:10 pm:

    Unless the State sues the apportionment issue is moot and even then I wouldn’t expect any change–I haven’t looked how close the issues was, but other states who were more undercounted might be in a better position. I generally think that’s just a casualty of the process at this point.

    You can do special Census processes to update the population for federal funding. I don’t know that a state has ever done that–cities have. Normal did it a few years ago and it’s not that uncommon.

    I think we ought to use sampling for federal funding decisions though the law and possibly the Constitution requires the actual count for apportionment. I’m probably fine with the actual count for apportionment because it does reduce monkeying with the numbers even if they are imperfect. Sampling is simply a better way to do the funding formulas though.


  36. - ArchPundit - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:11 pm:

    So, Eric didn’t have to sign a non-disparagement with the Trib as part of the early retirement package is what he’s telling us ;)


  37. - Nick - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:20 pm:

    Also to other’s points I’m again really not sure why we’re supposed to trust census numbers that consistently showed Illinois losing hundreds of thousands of people, then were proven wrong, then wrong to an even *greater* extent, and are now saying we’re losing masses of people again.


  38. - Benjamin - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:22 pm:

    @Nick: sounds like the Census Bureau isn’t going to dive further into the numbers than they already have. But there’s a clue:

    “[U]ndercounts generally occur within the Black population, Hispanic or Latino population, American Indian and Alaska Native populations living on reservations and the demographic group that reported being of ’some other race.’…They also noted that the 2020 census undercounted children, especially young children ages 0-4.”

    Somebody with a superior command of Illinois’ demographic can correct me, but I would guess that most Black and Hispanic residents of Illinois live in Cook County, or at least Greater Chicagoland.

    Meanwhile, I don’t know what state has the highest birth rate, but in terms of sheer number of children, Cook has to take the cake.

    So my guess is that while some of the undercounted population lived downstate, numerically speaking, most of the undercounted were in Chicago and its suburbs.


  39. - Benjamin - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:23 pm:

    Sorry–not state, county with the highest birth rate.


  40. - No comment - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 3:29 pm:

    GOP, Illinois Policy Institute, Illinois Manufacturers Association, IRMA, Ken Griffin, you name the person or entity, and they’re no commenting HARD. The only sound you hear is that of a narrative shattering.


  41. - Jibba - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:07 pm:

    ==aside from maybe it being job related.===

    Way to take out one of the most important reasons for being in Illinois…good jobs with high wages in a vibrant economy. And you also discount the many blue state political advantages to your freedom. And available water. And lack of retirement taxation. And…

    On the other hand you have the Jimmy Johns and the Griffins who can “live” anywhere and save quite a bit by leaving. No brainer for them, esp. since they dislike the politics so so so much. Since they have taken or will take their ball home, I don’t feel like changing my life one iota for the privileged few.


  42. - Anon - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:09 pm:

    Just some points amid all the crowing: 1) 1.9% growth over 10 years is not so spectacular, 2) it is only an “estimate” of an “undercount”. The 2020 Census figure showing loss remains official. 3) Even if pop of 13M with 1.9% growth is true, don’t you have to share credit with Quinn and Rauner?


  43. - Club J - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:14 pm:

    Politics Drives Policy
    Since you seem to have all the answers and know that the numbers aren’t true. Tell us how do you come up with your information? Are you calling people? Sending postcards with questions? Going door to door? None of the above because it’s all speculation.

    People do come to Illinois to live because they want to. Many with means stay because they want to. Snow birds keep their home in Illinois because they want to. Illinois isn’t a dump. People who think it’s a dump most likely live in a poorly kept home. I lived in Illinois for 56 years and loved it. Would move back today. Matter of fact I just looked at a home in Springfield. Just for a place to stay when I’m in town.

    Don’t you think it would sound better to speak well about where you live instead of running it down like you do? Think about it over the weekend.


  44. - Anon - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:15 pm:

    Jibba, could you please provide the link that shows me all the fantastic “lack of retirement taxation” here in Illinois? Can’t see it myself unless you are referring to tax rate if you are at the poverty line. A for instance: real estate taxes even with a senior circuit breaker or discount is still higher than in most Sunbelt states for non-seniors.


  45. - Jibba - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:21 pm:

    https://www2.illinois.gov/rev/QuestionsAndAnswers/pages/99.aspx

    Illinois does not tax distributions received from:

    qualified employee benefit plans, including 401(K) plans;
    an Individual Retirement Account, (IRA) or a self-employed retirement plan;
    a traditional IRA that has been converted to a Roth IRA;
    the redemption of U.S. retirement bonds;
    state and local government deferred compensation plans;
    a government retirement or government disability plan, including military plans;
    railroad retirement income;
    retirement payments to retired partners;
    a lump sum distribution of appreciated employer securities; and
    the federally taxed portion of Social Security benefits

    As you suggested, that does not mean that Illinois seniors pay no taxes, but this is certainly an advantage.


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