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Peraica poll has him eight points ahead

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Illinois

Peraica’s got a new poll.

Republican Tony Peraica released an internal campaign poll Monday that shows him leading Democrat Todd Stroger by eight percentage points in the race for Cook County Board president.

The GOP Cook County commissioner was beating the Democratic alderman from the 8th Ward, 48 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent of voters undecided. […]

Rejecting the numbers, Stroger campaign manager Mike Noonan said “this pollster must have gone around and found the 400 people who like George Bush in this county and asked them who they’re voting for — that’s the only way they could come up with these kinds of numbers.”

CBS2 has a little more:

Of the 400 voters surveyed, 64 percent had heard of Peraica, 31 percent have a favorable view of him, and 15 percent have an unfavorable view.

Ninety-three percent of the voters surveyed knew Stroger. Only 28 percent have a favorable opinion, with 50 percent unfavorable.

There is one thing you should always remember about polling in Cook County. The Democratic machine’s impact doesn’t really kick in until the last couple of weeks. Lots and lots of candidates have believed they were ahead a month or so before election day, only to get clobbered when voting actually began. An eight-point lead is still substantial (although we’re still only talking about a survey sample size of 400, which makes the margin of error quite high), but we’ll know more on e-day.

This logic also applies to the Duckworth-Roskam race, by the way. A recent poll had Duckworth ahead by 5, but Roskam’s field organization and the DuPage Republican operation can probably make up that difference unless GOP voters are adamant about staying home.

Some of Peraica’s crosstabs can be downloaded here [pdf file]. The executive summary is here [doc file]. A PowerPoint presentation is here [ppt file].

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 8:19 am

Comments

I’ve seen several Peraica signs in Ravenswood/North Center areas. I saw my first Stroget sign yesterday in a furniture store in Lincoln Square. This race is going to be interesting…will the lakefront liberals/so-called progressives vote for Peraica? Hold their nose and vote for Prince Todd because there’s a (D) next to his name on the ballot? Or not vote for either candidate?

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 8:25 am
It appears Todd’s campaign plan is coming into focus. The past three times I saw him on TV, he hammered Tony on the abortion issue at Cook County Hospital. The pro-choice women will see this as a defining issues.

This strategy has already put Tony on the defensive and put voters in the mindset of “should they believe Tony when he said he won’t halt the procedure at any of the county run health facilities”. The answer is: the voters won’t believe him and why should they? He switched parties, vowed to end patronage but pushed for his son to get a county job; vowed to end business as usual but pushed his law partner for a post on the Metra Board. He vowed to help clean up Cicero but sought law business from Larry Dominick. My favorite, he pays rent to the Lyons Township Democratic Committeeman and Mayor of Bridgeview Steve Landek and then takes tax payer dollars from the hard working people of Bridgeview to do “legal services”.

With friends like Tony, who needs enemies?

Comment by Jefferson Smith Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 9:12 am
No one really knows how strong the ward organizations are anymore, but if ever the committeemen were going to work hard for someone it would probably be the guy they literally handpicked.

Todd: “So I got that going for me, which is nice.”

Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 9:14 am
Peraica had people out at the Evanston - Davis Street Metra Stop on the Union Pacific North Line this morning. I have to hand it to him, appearing on a radio show with a largely African American audience and handing out literature in a Dem bastion like Evanston shows he is going after everyone’s votes.

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 9:17 am
I don’t buy the poll. Peraica paid for it, and it’s a good way to create press and raise money. That’s all fine.

But let’s not treat it as something other than what it is.

Looking at things like both candidates have about the same “favorable” name ID, Peraica’s name not even recognized by a big chunk, and corruption listed as top issue by only 20-some percent - doesn’t translate into an 8 point lead in such a hard core Dem county.

To get that result, I think there has to be some push polling going on, or something less than a random sample.

I can’t imagine Peraica losing by less in Cook County than Topinka does statewide.

I don’t think this race ends up being close. Cook County’s way too Dem, and Peraica’s done little to change that. He’s still working both sides of the fence to serve his own purposes, annoying both sides along the way.

Most Republicans don’t trust him either, and I really don’t see that much excitement out there for him.

Comment by RealClear Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 10:05 am
Then Peraica’s got some work to do. Especially if there is anything he can do.

Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 10:28 am
Peraica could likely do quite a bit to clean up the Cook County government swamp, something the Democrats have shown no interest in doing. Bobbie Steele, appointed to fix things so the less than competent Toddler would have an easy probationary period, has made only the most
perfunctory gestures towards reform. Even at the widely critized Juvenile Correction Center, where two federal probes are ongoing, all she did was shuffle the management deck. Excoriating Mark Foley is fine, but the Democrats have presided happily over decades of child abuse and neglect at the Democrat-run Juvenile Center. So much for caring about kids. Only if it’s politically useful.

Clearly, the Dems have no fears that they will lose next month so aren’t even pretending to clean up Cook County government. And the County, true to form, is trying hard to get out from under Shakman!

As with the state races, one can only hope for a narrow vs. a wide margin of victory. Otherwise, state and local Democrats will see these elections as a mandate for continued corruption.

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 10:47 am
If you go to the very last table on the pdf file from the pollster you find that the suburban sample is 57.7% vs. 43.3% for the city. This will definitely shift the poll results toward Peraica where his strength will be. The voter turnout is more likely to be 50-50 with a slight edge for the suburban votes based on recent election trends. But definitely not 58:42 suburban!
This is the same sampling flaw from the Glengarry poll in January that showed Claypool beating John Stroger in the primary. Subtotals by race, age, location, etc. were similar to the published polls that showed Stroger ahead, but the suburban oversampling.
The attachment did not have any useful crosstabs by who and where the candidates’ supporters were. Thus it is hard to extrapolate a more realistic result. Peraica’s numbers with a better city/suburban weight is more likely a dead heat.

Comment by Dem Bob Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 10:58 am
Quite right on the Machine vote, Rich. Peraica needs that lead and more on Nov. 7.

The Big Fish of the Illinois Republicans have been hesitating on Peraica, both with their support and their pocketbooks, wondering if he is for real and can win. Expect that to change immediately, as a Very Big Fish has recently resolved both questions in the affirmative, and is now throwing his full support behind Tony.

Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 11:45 am
Peraica voters know enough not to make their support public. They will go into the booth, vote for him, and if asked by pollsters who they voted for, claim they voted for Stroger.

People are now lying to pollsters. They know what they are supposed to say but also how to vote.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 11:57 am
I’m not so sure about the Machine’s ability on this race.

First, the Feds are watching, and the City did not give out massive vacations days for the March primary. They may not have the ground troops they used to deploy.

Second, a lesbian liberal feminist on my block walked up to me last week and said she was voting for Peraica, as she can’t vote for Todd stroger come hell or high water. She said she strongly disagrees with Peraica on some social issues, but thinks he will begin to reform the government, and is confident the County Board votes will control the social issues, not Peraica.

I almost fell over.

Comment by Not So Sure Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 11:58 am
Dem Bob, I note the poll sample was also 64% Democratic voters, vs. 24% GOP. That should give Toddler and the Daleys something to think about. I’m not so sure about a dead heat.

Comment by Not So Sure Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 12:38 pm
Peraica and Stoger are both anathema to the average lakefront voter. Peraica is unacceptable because of his conservative ideology. Stroger is unacceptable because of the blatant nepotism and mediocrity implicit in his selection. This is one of those elections where “none-of-the-above” really would win if it were on the ballot.

Peraica wins the lakefront and north suburban Cook County by a substantial margin. Committeemen, outside the African-American community, will not be able to deliver their wards for Stroger.

Ticket-splitters and independents will break for Peraica because he will get overwhelming editorial support from the newspapers.

I’m voting for Stroger, but I believe Peraica can win. Regardless of who wins, I’m supporting another candidate in 4 years. Cook County is almost ready for reform!

Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 1:54 pm
PEracia will be a speed bump in the Dem machine corruption. While I believe he wants to end it (perhaps bringing his own style of corruption along), if elected, it will merely slow down the bs that goes on in Crook county, which is still better than the rudderless jet that it is now. Oops, it is time for Bobb(I)e Steal to throw another inagural ball.

Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 3:02 pm
A poll is no measure of who actually shows up at the polls on election day, and they are usually Dem regulars in Cook County.

Comment by Snidely Whiplash Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 4:15 pm
Saw that Stroger brought up Peraica’s past and current ties to the corrupt town of Cicero today in the debate.

Assuming that’s a theme Todd hits hard in his upcoming ads, the Peraica balloon is going to spring a big leak. This guy’s no reformer.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 8:03 pm
If Peraica is no reformer– then what exactly is Todd Stroger? When Stroger “throws mud” (and in this he has no choice because he does as it is written down for him) he “loses ground”. I was at the debate today–he lost his place in the talking points repeatedly. Win Lose or Draw, 2 things are certain–Stroger is a an ultra-featherweight and and it appears that he is the only one that doesn’t know this–yet. It is eerie….like the Truman Show. His handlers will explain it to him–after the election. As John Daley said it’s a [blank] [blankin] disgrace– that they don’t even think they need an actual candidate.

Comment by Anon2 Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 10:40 pm
Ok he his “sort of goofy”–how’s that–pre-vetted eh?

Comment by Anon2 Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 11:11 pm
Tony Peraica is part of the racist mob associated Mayor Larry Dominick and the old Cicero machine.
How can he claim he is reform minded.

Tony Peraica’s consultant and media team are the same team of Alan Keyes and the right wing defunct Illinois Leader dot com.

Comment by Pedro Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 11:30 pm