Indeed
Tuesday, May 14, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* At a recent forum, the New York Times’ Monica Davey posed a question to the panelists, which included Attorney General Lisa Madigan and GOP political consultant Christine Dudley…
Davey questioned the panelists about the notion of women’s “likability” as they gain power.
“Everybody loves me,” Madigan joked.
Dudley responded, “Wait until next year,” which caused the audience to roar with laughter.
It’s rumored that Madigan may challenge Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn in the 2014 gubernatorial primary election.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, May 14, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the left, Doug Finke, Rich Miller, Senate president John Cullerton and Cullerton press aide John Patterson. Via Barton Lorimor’s Twitter feed…
* The Question: Caption?
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A look ahead
Tuesday, May 14, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Nowlan writes about the judicial prospects for pension reform…
[House Speaker Michael Madigan] has, rather brazenly, declared that he believes there are four votes on the state high court of seven members to declare the bill constitutional. There are four Democrats and three Republicans on the court.
The Illinois Supreme Court has always been considered a “political court,” capable of responding to political realities. Its members are elected in partisan contests. One member is the wife of a prominent Chicago alderman.
And Chief Justice Thomas Kilbride of Rock Island was lifted from a small general law practice to the high court in 2000 when Speaker Madigan, who is also the state Democratic Party chair, basically took over Kilbride’s lackluster campaign and funneled almost a million dollars into it to surprise the favored GOP candidate in a narrow win.
So this “armchair constitutional lawyer” predicts, going way out on a limb, that a bill closer to Madigan than Cullerton will pass sometime this year, and that the state Supreme Court will swallow hard and declare the underlying defined benefit unimpaired, thus constitutional.
Yeah, well, Kilbride was also heavily backed by unions, particularly in his tough 2010 reelection bid. I’m not so sure that he’ll jettison them just to please MJM on one ruling.
* No matter how it plays out in the General Assembly, the courts will be the next big chapter in the pension reform war. Kirk Jenkins penned a remarkable blog post recently which looked at the Kilbride Court’s record. For instance, most appellate decisions have been overturned in all but one district…
Nearly half of the Kilbride Court’s civil docket — 43.8% — has come from Chicago’s First District. The First hasn’t fared well; five of the six Divisions have a reversal rate of 60% or more, topping out with an 85.7% reversal rate in the Division Two. The First District has had a particularly rough 2012, with a 76.5% reversal rate. The Fifth District, which includes Madison and St. Clair Counties, both sharply criticized as pro-plaintiff environments for tort cases in recent years by the American Tort Reform Foundation, has seen 80% of its civil decisions reversed by the Supreme Court. Two other Districts are similar: two thirds of the decisions reviewed from the Second and Third Districts have been reversed.
But the anomaly comes from the Fourth District, which centers on the state capital of Springfield. The Court has heard eight civil cases from the Fourth District, four involving government parties. In six of those eight cases (including three government wins) the Supreme Court has affirmed: an impressive 75% affirmance rate.
* Jenkins also looked at the voting patterns. It’s pretty complicated and involved and you should definitely go read the whole thing to get the entire flavor, but here is his summation….
Our analysis of the dynamics of the Kilbride Court just past its second anniversary suggests several tentative lessons for counsel: (1) if you prevailed at the Appellate Court, the odds your decision will be reversed are roughly two in three (unless you’re coming from the Fourth District); (2) the Court’s ultimate decision is quite likely to be unanimous; and (3) if the decision is not unanimous, the Justices most likely to be in the majority are Justices Thomas, Garman, Karmeier and either Burke or Theis.
That suggests there might be a working GOP majority if the final decision is split. We’ll see.
…Adding… Justice Karmeier won a traditionally Democratic district last time around and is up for reelection in 2014. If politics plays a role here, then Karmeier may shy away from whacking public employees. Take a look at his district, which is pretty much all of the Metro East and deep southern Illinois. The Democrats will be gunning for his seat, so I’m not certain that he’ll want to give them ammo with a pro-Madigan decision, no matter how ironic that may sound. It’s about winning elections, not policy.
Also, Rita Garman represents both Champaign and McLean counties, which have very large universities. Something to keep in mind.
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* From a press release…
The City of Chicago Office of Inspector General (IGO) has completed an audit of the City’s Red-Light Camera (RLC) program.
The audit found that Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT) was unable to substantiate its claims that the City chose to install and maintain red-light cameras at intersections with the highest angle crash rates in order to increase safety.
But we’ll see if this language from the IG’s letter actually features prominently in news coverage…
We found no evidence of this program being managed in a manner designed specifically to maximize revenue.
* Even so, the report is replete with references to CDOT’s inability or refusal to supply information. For instance…
The City paid Redflex a total of $106,271,823 through March 8, 2013, but CDOT did not have documentation breaking out purchase, maintenance, repair, and other costs by RLC location. CDOT maintains no records of the purchase, maintenance, operation, repair, and additional costs for each individual camera.17 Therefore, the IGO was not able to determine (nor could CDOT otherwise explain) how much of the $106,271,823 paid to Redflex was associated with each of these cost categories. Without this information, CDOT could not answer basic cost questions such as:
* What did the equipment cost?
* How much was spent on repairs at each installation?
* Should CDOT have replaced the equipment or repaired it?
* Is the RLC program cost effective?
Go read the whole thing.
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AFT backs pension compromise
Tuesday, May 14, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This didn’t get much play anywhere, but the American Federation of Teachers’ president sent out a statement yesterday backing the state unions’ pension reform proposal…
“Illinois has a chance to pass smart and fair pension reform legislation that was developed collaboratively with public employees, who were willing to accept cuts in their retirement benefits to ensure long-term stability of the state’s pension system and its commitment to its employees and retirees. Instead of focusing on blaming, scapegoating and trying to eviscerate public workers—as is the sport in so many states—there was a real effort in the Senate-passed measure to reach consensus with state workers and find a fair solution to fixing the pension system.
“Public employees, who care for the sick, teach our children, and keep bridges and roads safe, make pension contributions throughout their careers and deserve to have retirement security. This proposal guarantees that the state funds pensions and doesn’t walk away from its obligations to hard-working employees. The compromise achieved in Illinois shows that when people are willing to work together in good-faith negotiations, fair solutions are attainable. We hope the Illinois House passes this measure quickly, and it is signed into law.”
That statement is significant because it shows at least one international union is not trying to downplay a compromise effort at the state level. It could even turn out to be a template for other states that are debating the issue.
The newspaper editorial boards have generally been so quick to dismiss the union effort that they haven’t realized what a major step this really was. Unions here have always refused to go backward on pension benefits. The agreement shows that they now understand compromise is necessary and right.
The intense blowhard opposition truly disheartens those of us who have been publicly prodding the unions to come to the table. One of the few non-blowhard editorial pages, the State Journal-Register, wants a few more tweaks…
Cullerton’s plan is the best hope for getting pension legislation to the governor this year and ensuring that education, public safety and health care are better funded. He and Madigan should explore ways to modify Cullerton’s plan to find more savings.
For example, it could be modified so that, like Madigan’s plan, it caps the salary upon which an employee can earn a pension. Another potential change could be to rework the funding schedule, as has been suggested by the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability.
Illinois cannot afford to let another legislative session end without making some movement toward pension reform. Madigan and Cullerton should begin negotiations immediately and finally bring this issue to a resolution.
It’s hard to disagree with that.
* From Finke…
“As a lawyer-legislator, you can’t just say, ‘Oh, screw the Constitution, let’s just proceed without it.” Sen. Kwame Raoul, D-Chicago, on whether lawmakers should consider the chances that a pension bill is constitutional before approving it.
* Related…
* Kadner: A travesty of a mockery of a sham
* Klickna: Coalition plan is fair, effective, constitutional
* Nekritz: Time to do the right thing over the easy thing
* Morrison: We must rethink old ideas about retirement
* Editorial: The time for pension reform is at hand
* Potential impacts of proposed pension plans vary for McDonough County
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Quinn the Yankee
Tuesday, May 14, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From WSIL TV in Carterville, IL…
(T)he Governor hasn’t been further South than Troy, Illinois in nearly nine months. A city that’s still nearly 50 miles from our region.
The governor’s office responds…
Governor Pat Quinn has traveled all over the state - including to Southern Illinois- numerous times since taking office. He’s made job creation and public infrastructure investment for Southern Illinois a top priority. In fact, Governor Quinn signed into law the largest public works program in state history, which is supporting thousands of jobs across Southern Illinois on highway projects like the widening of Route 13, SIU’s new Transportation Education Center and brand new classrooms for Marion, Mt. Vernon, Pinckneyville, Carterville and Shawnee. The governor has promoted Southern Illinois agriculture around the world and worked tirelessly to open up new markets for Southern Illinois businesses. At Governor Quinn’s direction, the state partnered with Continental Tires to expand their business in Mt. Vernon and create more than 400 jobs. The Governor’s travel schedule varies month to month depending on what work he has to do. When the massive tornado hit Harrisburg last year, Governor Quinn was in Harrisburg within hours. As we are currently in the midst of the legislative session, Governor Quinn has spent a good amount of time in the past several months in Springfield as well as Chicago. His focus is on delivering real results for the people of Southern Illinois. That’s why he is in Springfield tonight working to achieve important goals like balancing the budget, much-needed pension reform and other important policies that will jumpstart the economy. Any implication otherwise is 100% false and absurd.
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Minister: Gays “have more rights than I do”
Tuesday, May 14, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an AP story about black church opposition to gay marriage…
Bishop Lance Davis, who leads the roughly 500-member New Zion Christian Fellowship Church of Dolton, said blacks have fought for equality for the right to live as human beings, something he’s not convinced has been fully actualized.
“You can’t compare the two,” he said, citing the well-organized gay marriage advocacy in Illinois.
“I feel that those gays and lesbians have more power than I do. Have more rights than I do. More freedoms than I do.”
Bishop Davis is the chairman of the African-American Clergy Coalition’s political action committee, which is funding the anti side of the fight.
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Our broken state (Part 42,910)
Monday, May 13, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
Five years ago, Illinois passed legislation requiring electric suppliers to buy more renewable energy such as wind and solar power and then pass those costs on to customers.
The intent of the mandate was to have so-called green electricity accounting for a quarter of the power flowing into residences and businesses by 2025 while fostering homegrown jobs and cleaner air.
But that was before customers of the state’s two major electric utilities defected en masse to other suppliers that purchase power on the open market. With that move, the state is falling short of its green mandate, because money being collected from customers by these other energy suppliers isn’t being used for green energy purchases.
Instead, the money is going into a fund that’s sitting untapped because of obscure language in state law.
That $15 million account is on track to balloon to nearly $135 million by the end of 2014, according to the Illinois Power Agency, the state agency tasked with spending the funds.
Because of the language in the law, the agency can only use the money to buy renewable energy if the state’s two utilities are out buying renewable energy at the same time. With only a fraction of their customer bases left, the utilities already have more renewable energy than they need and aren’t buying more.
This obviously needs to be fixed. The state borrowed money from the account in the past (and paid it back), but a green energy account that’s mainly functioning as a revolving loan fund for the state government doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Sheesh.
* Meanwhile, check out this line in a story entitled “800 nursing home supporters rally for state to restore Medicaid cuts”...
The state could not be reached for comment.
I know the feeling.
* Roundup…
* Try, try again: A handful of good-government and other lobbying groups plan to announce a push this week to collect 300,000 signatures from Illinoisans and amend the state constitution to change how political boundaries are drawn.
* Gov. Quinn’s message to lawmakers: If you want casino bill, give me pension reform
* Chicago’s proposed casino: Tourist gem or drain on locals’ paychecks?
* Lucy’s Place in Litchfield offers non-traditional casino vibe: In Chatham, Village Trustee Joe Schatteman, who also works for the Illinois Municipal League, told trustees he didn’t believe gambling parlors was the intent of the 2009 legislation that legalized video gambling.
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Empty rhetoric
Monday, May 13, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Whenever something bad happens in the Loop, politicos quickly try to “do something.” I dunno if this bill will work, but it certainly falls into that aforementioned category…
Illinois legislators weren’t thinking about harmless flash mobs, like countless renditions of the Harlem Shake or over-the-top marriage proposals, when crafting new legislation recently.
A bill which passed the state assembly on Friday and the state Senate earlier would allow judges to “impose an extended term sentence” when new-age “mob action” involves “electronic communication.”
Democratic state Rep. Christian Mitchell, sponsor of the legislation, said he expects it to act as a deterrent to those considering participating in a flash mob attack like several along Chicago’s prestigious and bustling Magnificent Mile, a popular downtown shopping area.
* But whatever the case, this reaction was way, way over the top…
“Would this bill have stopped the murder of Hadiya Pendleton?” [Rep. Monique Davis (D-Chicago)] demanded of Mitchell. “The question, sir, is are children’s lives as valuable as the merchants on Michigan Avenue…Would this bill stop the murders of black boys and girls on the South and West Sides of Chicago, and if it doesn’t do that you should be ashamed of yourself.”
* Rep. Monique Davis has sponsored four crime-related bills this session. Here’s one…
Provides that an obligor is not required to make child support payments, nor shall interest accrue on any outstanding child support balance due, from the date the obligor is incarcerated or ceases employment until he or she is released or secures new employment.
Heck, you could easily make an argument that Davis’ bill would actually make matters worse for kids.
So, I’m not sure how that crime-related bill “stops the murders.” Nor this one, or this one, or this one.
In other words, where’s your plan, Rep. Davis?
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Question of the day
Monday, May 13, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rep. Brandon Phelps, an avid concealed carry supporter, and Sen. Kwame Raoul, the sponsor of a rival concealed carry bill which is staunchly opposed by the NRA, talk it out…
* The Question: Caption?
Keep it clean or you’ll be banned. Thanks.
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Reality bites
Monday, May 13, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Back in March, before Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s school system ordered several school closings, the Chicago Tribune editorial board published a Joyce Foundation poll which showed that 55 percent of Chicagoans strongly or somewhat agreed that the city should close under-enrolled schools.
* But in May, after the closure plans became a reality, the numbers flipped, according to a Tribune poll…
Chicago voters hold a dim view of Rahm Emanuel’s stewardship of public education after a tumultuous year that featured a teachers strike and the mayor’s push to close many neighborhood elementary schools, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
Disenchantment with Emanuel’s education policy is particularly acute among minority voters, and that’s helping drive up negative views of the mayor’s overall job performance as he reaches the middle of his first term this week.
Nearly 6 of 10 surveyed said they disapproved of Emanuel’s attempt to downsize elementary schools, while just a third approved. Those numbers closely mirror negative feelings about Emanuel’s approach to public education, which he has labeled a top priority. […]
Asked whom they sided with in the debate over public school improvement, 41 percent of those surveyed said the teachers union and just 19 percent said Emanuel. Another 36 percent said neither.
The more I think about that editorial board poll, the more worthless it looks.
* Related…
* Emanuel to seek second term
* Dump Emanuel in 2015? Spare us, CTU: The Chicago political establishment, the useless one that has spent so long building “Chicago-style politics” into a joke, is going to get a very rude awakening in February 2015. Mr. Emanuel is going to keep raising money and run a competent, effective campaign. And then he’s going to face clowns and run over them like a steamroller: Slowly, leisurely, and permanently.
* Emanuel School Closings Popular with Rich People?
* Emanuel gets split verdict on crime - But majority of voters approve of McCarthy’s performance as city’s top cop
* Emanuel’s approval slips, especially among black voters - though most respondents still consider him to be trustworthy
* Emanuel’s Chicagoness an issue to many - Most voters think mayor isn’t in touch with people like them
* Emanuel not getting the jobs done?
* Quinn will continue to halt UNO funding until ethical issues resolved; “Simple as that”
* UNO charter-school scandal has Wall Street worried
* Where UNO charter schools’ money comes from
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Two votes shy?
Monday, May 13, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Chicago Phoenix…
With mounting urgency, activists are calling on Speaker Michael Madigan, who rules the Democratic majority in the House, to help secure the final few votes needed to pass the bill into law. Democrats hold 71 seats, while GOP lawmakers hold 47. […]
“Madigan commands a super-majority, but is unwilling to spend political capital for gay equality,” said Bob Schwartz of the Gay Liberation Network, an LGBT rights direct action group. “As with other legislation, if Madigan wanted the marriage bill to pass, it would already be law.”
However, Madigan spokesman Steve Brown told Chicago Phoenix the bill’s chief sponsor will determine when it will be called.
Harris, has long been mum on how many votes he’s secured and his timeline for the bill, but said he is close to having secured the 60 votes required for victory. A government source among those backing the bill pegs the current count at 58.
It’s quite correct to say that if Madigan wants the bill to pass it’ll pass. He says he wants it to pass. The question now is when.
* The reported head count and Harris’ reluctance to move his bill both combine to suggest that Gov. Pat Quinn’s head count is probably off…
Gov. Pat Quinn Thursday called on Illinois House members to take action on a same-sex marriage bill that’s been dormant there for more than 80 days, adding that he thinks the votes are there to send the measure to his desk. […]
“I believe a majority exists to get this bill passed through the House onto my desk so I can sign it into law.” […]
“I think, you know, it’s time to vote,” Quinn said. “We’ve waited now three months, and it’s, I think, plenty of time for people to reflect on it. And now it’s time to pass it.”
If Rep. Harris isn’t moving the bill, they don’t have the votes, for whatever reason. I think some of the people Quinn believes are “Yes” votes are actually not quite there yet. But it’ll pass if the Speaker wants it to.
* In other news, using an out of state civil rights leader and a long ago special teams football player to counter robocalls by local ministers probably won’t sway many minds, so don’t expect the new robocalls by gay marriage forces to accomplish all that much…
Two pro-gay-marriage robocalls — one by a former Chicago Bears player and another by a civil rights leader — are expected to go out in the districts of Illinois House Black Caucus members on Monday, urging support for gay marriage legislation that’s still awaiting a vote in that chamber in the waning days of the session.
One of the calls features civil rights leader Julian Bond; the other, onetime Bears player Brendon Ayanbadejo. […]
Several Republicans have committed to crossing over and voting “yes,” potentially leaving the Black Caucus with critical sway over the issue. […]
In recent weeks, some members of the Black Caucus have come out in support of gay marriage, including Illinois Rep. Ken Dunkin (D-Chicago), who signed on as a co-sponsor to the pending bill.
The calls will target constituents in 17 House districts that include Dunkin’s; Monique Davis; Will Davis; Marcus Evans; Mary Flowers; LaShawn Ford; Esther Golar; Chuck Jefferson; Derrick Smith, and Art Turner, in addition to others.
OK, first of all “several Republicans” equals three: Two publicly, one privately.
Also, “some members of the Black Caucus” equals one: Rep. Dunkin.
* More…
But after many African-American churches and Chicago’s Catholic Archdiocese led by Cardinal Francis George stepped up their anti-gay marriage campaigns, house members representing predominantly black districts have publicly denounced the bill.
“My constituents have let me know in no uncertain terms that they object to that legislation,” said Rep. Monique Davis (D-Chicago).
Representative Bob Rita (D-Blue Island) said he leaned toward voting for the bill last winter.
“But seeing as the Cardinal and different reverends coming out in opposition, I’m looking closer at it and taking a more neutral stance,” said Rita.
* Meanwhile, things got a little rough at dueling demonstrations in front of Rep. Jim Durkin’s district office….
One man who disputed IFI’s message began yelling during Americans for Truth about Homosexuality President Peter LaBarbera’s speech. The man broke one of the IFI protester’s signs before police intervened.
“Disagreement does not equal hate,” said Peter LaBarbera, in response to the man.
Smith addressed the scuffle later in the program.
“They’re the ones bullying us and intimidating Christians into silence,” he said. “I say no more.”
* But…
A group of teenage boys stopped by the protest briefly and returned later with signs they scrawled on pizza boxes and the back of a guitar.
“God hates hate,” read one. “Equality above all!” said another.
That’s the future, folks.
* In contrast, here’s a sign from a rally at Rep. Stephanie Kifowit’s office…
That would be the past.
* Related…
* Illinois same-sex marriage supporters fight back on robocalls
* Hate speech or religious freedom? Debated at Chicago Heights marriage rally (video)
* Protestors on both sides of gay marriage issue rally in Aurora
* Protesters spar over marriage bill in three suburbs
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* Rep. Lou Lang has an op-ed in the Tribune about a recent editorial…
It’s about time that the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board stop treating the Illinois Constitution like yesterday’s newspaper.
For years the editorial page has loudly bellowed for and against Illinois pension proposals and petulantly insulted and denigrated lawmakers who dare to defy the editorial page’s blithe disregard for the state Constitution.
The latest example was a May 6 editorial’s shrill assault on 53 members of the Illinois House of Representatives who voted against a pension reform proposal sponsored by House Speaker Michael Madigan, charging that by exercising their function of office to vote “no” on a bill, they are “the do-nothing caucus.” […]
To assert that lawmakers who voted against Senate Bill 1 are part of a “do-nothing caucus” is as outrageous as it is ignorant of the constitutional dimension of the legislation, and ignorant of lawmakers’ mandate to consider the Illinois Constitution when voting on legislation. Some would consider the plain words of our Constitution at least as important as our critical need to reform Illinois’ pension system.
The assertion that lawmakers who chose to vote “no” on the Madigan bill have somehow avoided their duty or have inserted themselves into the pockets of organized labor is slanderous and insulting to the integrity of 53 members of the House who believe we need a pension bill that is fair, credible and constitutional. We may have wide disagreement on these issues, but that hardly rises to the level of “do nothing.”
While the Tribune editorial board may elect to write nonsense while ignoring the Illinois Constitution and to insult the integrity of legislators, lawmakers are elected to do the hard work of voting for bills they consider constitutionally worthy.
Unless the Tribune reverts to its rich tradition of responsible, respectful and thoughtful journalism, its influence on Illinois public policy will continue to erode further and its opinions will be as useful as yesterday’s news.
* Meanwhile…
In a report out today, the Civic Federation says that a bill pushed through the House by Mr. Madigan “will produce pension savings of the magnitude needed to stabilize the state’s finances.” But a competing plan by Senate President John Cullerton “doesn’t even get us back to where we were last year,” said Federation President Laurence Msall in an interview last Friday.
“There’s a pretty stark difference in the savings of the one bill to the next,” Mr. Msall said. The Madigan bill “has the components we need.”
The federation has been increasingly outspoken about the state’s pension woes in recent months, but its flat endorsement of the Madigan bill comes amid a stalemate in which it’s uncertain whether each legislative leader will allow his chamber to take up the other’s bill and, if the measure is put to a vote, work against it. […]
(A)ccording to Mr. Msall, the Madigan bill would free up at least $1 billion more than the Cullerton plan for schools, health care and other needs in next year’s budget. It would do so by gradually raising the full-benefit retirement age to 67, requiring workers to pay an additional 2 percent of salary for their pension, and capping cost-of-living adjustments on pensions.
In comparison, while Mr. Cullerton’s bill would provide some savings, they’re not even enough to offset this year’s increase in how much Illinois has to set aside each year for pensions, the federation says.
The report is here.
* Related…
* Watchdog group says state must address pensions
* Ex-U of I President Hogan tops highest-paid list
* Infographic: Is Your State’s Highest-Paid Employee A Coach? (Probably)
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady resigned last week just as a new statewide poll showed big trouble for his political party’s brand.
Brady had been under pressure to resign ever since the disastrous 2012 elections. The pressure increased publicly after Brady announced his support for a gay marriage bill. Multiple attempts to oust Brady were unsuccessful.
The way forward is unclear, to say the least. Some party leaders have a list of over 25 people to consider. This could easily turn out to be a total mess.
And this all comes at a particularly bad time for the GOP. A new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found that 52 percent of likely Illinois voters have a negative view of the Republican Party. Just 25 percent have a positive view, while 24 percent were neutral.
According to the poll of 1,036 likely voters taken May 6th, 54 percent of women have a negative view of the GOP (just 24 percent positive), while 48 percent of men have a negative view (just 26 percent positive). The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
And a mere 59 percent of self-identified Republicans have a positive view of the GOP, while 16 percent have a negative view and 25 percent are neutral - a combined 41 percent un-positive. Not good.
Perhaps more importantly, only 18 percent of independents have a positive view of the Republican Party, while 50 percent have a negative view.
So, it’s somewhat of a miracle that Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka is still polling as well as she is. According to the survey, Topinka leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon 45-38. A total of 24 percent of the calls were made to cell phones.
Simon will likely run for attorney general if Lisa Madigan steps up to run for governor, but she has said she is eyeing the comptroller’s race as well. Simon is the highest profile Democrat to consider a bid against Topinka, so this may be a high water mark for the Democrats. Topinka won her last race by 13 points in a very good year for the GOP.
Topinka leads among independents by 12 big and important points. Her lead also pretty much matches Lisa Madigan’s lead over Dan Rutherford and Aaron Schock in a somewhat recent Public Policy Polling survey. So, she’s doing quite well considering the serious headwinds. Topinka and Simon are essentially tied among women, but Topinka has a 53-34 lead among men.
But the news isn’t all that great for Democrats, either.
A Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,057 likely Illinois voters taken May 8th showed that 42 percent have a negative view of the Democratic Party while just 36 percent have a positive view. That’s not as bad as the GOP numbers, but it is “certainly an indictment of the political landscape,” as my pollster told me. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3 percent.
According to the poll the Democratic Party is viewed positively by a plurality of women, 43-37, and negatively by men, 50-28, compared to the poll about the GOP which showed that women and men viewed the Republican Party in a negative light.
Independents tend to lean more conservative because so many of them are former Republicans who no longer want to be identified with the party. So, the GOP has to do well with them to win. There are far more Democrats in this state than Republicans, but they aren’t a majority and must still be competitive with independents.
And according to that poll, the Democrats aren’t doing so well with independents right now. A strong majority of independents, 56 percent, viewed the Democratic Party negatively, which is six points worse than the Republicans fared. Eighteen percent - the same result as the GOP - viewed the party positively.
67 percent of Democrats viewed their party in a positive light, compared to the 59 percent of Republicans who viewed their party positively. The Democrats clearly have an advantage with their base, but it’s still not all that wonderful.
Just one region, Chicago, finds a majority positive view of the Democratic Party, with 56 percent positive and 23 percent negative. A 39-29 plurality of suburban Cook County voters view the Democratic Party in a positive light, while a 52-33 majority of collar county voters and a 56-24 majority of Downstaters have a negative view of the Dems.
* Related…
* Why candidates for ILGOP chairman are saying “no”: Downstate businessman Jason Plummer said no when he spoke to State Central Committeeman Gene Dawson Friday morning. Since running for lieutenant governor in 2010 and for Congress in 2012, Plummer remains involved in building the Republican Party in the Metro East area, raising funds and recruiting candidates. Plummer said Dawson asked if he was just too busy to apply for the chairmanship, and Plummer agreed that was part of the reason he rejected the opportunity to chair the state party.
* Lyons: State GOP needs new chair and living room set
* Pfeifer: Joe Walsh for IL GOP Chairman
* Lt. Gov supports medical marijuana
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