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Rauner poll: Voters oppose CPS “bailout”

Tuesday, Jun 28, 2016

* Keep in mind that many of these questions are obviously slanted, but polls like these are done to test messaging. And, according to their poll, that messaging is working. From the governor’s campaign operation…

Victory Phones, which accurately tracked the 2014 Illinois governor’s race, conducted a statewide opinion survey about the status of school funding and the current budget impasse. The poll surveyed 777 likely Illinois voters between June 25-27 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.52 percent. The sample was D+15 and included 25% cell phones.

Key Findings

1. Speaker Mike Madigan, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and the Chicago Teachers Union are all unpopular.

Q. What is your opinion of Mike Madigan?

    Favorable 13.2%
    Unfavorable 71.1%
    No opinion 15.6%

Q. What is your opinion of Rahm Emanuel?

    Favorable 17.7%
    Unfavorable 61.6%
    No opinion 20.8%

Q. What is your opinion of the Chicago Teachers Union?

    Favorable 21.5%
    Unfavorable 50.3%
    No opinion 28.2%

2. Democrats’ intransigence and decision to leave Springfield without passing a budget is helping Gov. Rauner’s image recover.

Q. What is your opinion of Bruce Rauner?

    Favorable 43.1%
    Unfavorable 41.4%
    No opinion 15.6%

3. Voters oppose bailing out Chicago Public Schools even if it means turning down additional money for their own schools.

Q. Do you support or oppose a taxpayer-funded bailout of Chicago Public Schools if it includes increasing state funding for all schools across Illinois including your own local school districts?

    Support 32.3%
    Oppose 53.7%
    Unsure 14.0%

4. Voters don’t want their legislators to vote for any legislation that would bailout Chicago Public Schools.

Q. Would you be more or less likely to vote for your state legislator if you found out they voted for a bill that increases local school funding but also provides the largest taxpayer-funded bailout in the history of Chicago Public Schools?

    More Likely 23.3%
    Less Likely 53.9%
    Unsure 22.8%

5. Voters prefer Gov. Rauner’s education funding proposal over the one proposed by House Speaker Mike Madigan

Q. One proposal, put forward by Speaker Mike Madigan and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, would provide record funding for schools throughout Illinois, but would also give Chicago a bailout worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The other proposal, put forward by Governor Bruce Rauner, would increase education funding by $240 million but would not include a Chicago bailout. Of these two proposals, which do you prefer?

    Speaker Mike Madigan and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s bill that increases school funding for all and includes a Chicago bailout 38.8%

    Governor Rauner’s bill that increases school funding but does not give Chicago a taxpayer bailout 61.2%

6. Illinois voters believe Chicago Public Schools are poorly run and don’t pay enough of their own costs.

Q. Do you agree or disagree that Chicago Public Schools is run by corrupt politicians?

    Agree 59.6%
    Disagree 23.1%
    Unsure 17.3%

Q. Do you agree or disagree that Chicago Public Schools gets unfair treatment by the state and deserves more funding than most other school districts?

    Agree 35.2%
    Disagree 50.45%
    Unsure 14.4%

Q. Do you agree or disagree that Chicago Public Schools is a financial wreck that gives sweetheart deals to special interests and political insiders, forcing taxpayers to pay more to foot the bill?

    Agree 64.7%
    Disagree 18.1%
    Unsure 17.2%

7. A robust messaging campaign will further solidify support for Gov. Rauner’s education plan and opposition to the Democrats’ plan.

Q. Chicago Public Schools has had years of runaway spending, reckless mismanagement and giveaways to special interests and political insiders. Knowing this do you support or oppose a taxpayer-funded bailout of Chicago Public Schools?

    Support 20.2%
    Oppose 67.8%
    Unsure 12.1%

Q. The proposal to bailout Chicago Public Schools is supported by Chicago politicians Rahm Emanuel and Mike Madigan but opposed by reformers like Bruce Rauner. Knowing this, do you support or oppose a taxpayer-funded bailout of Chicago Public Schools?

    Support 25.3%
    Oppose 64.8%
    Unsure 10%

* Top takeaway: That question about support/oppose more money for their own schools as part of a CPS bailout is truly not good for Democrats, who’ve proposed doing just that. The folks out there in VoterLand don’t need to buy in to the governor’s “CPS is bad” rhetoric because they’ve always felt that way.

Also, check out those MJM numbers. Even with a D+15 sample. Ouch!

- Posted by Rich Miller   71 Comments      

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