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Cool new online stuff

Thursday, Oct 30, 2014

* We Ask America has a new turnout effect calculator. It looks pretty cool, and it ought to because I had a little input into how it was built. From the explanation

The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets.

With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).

Have fun.

Click here to try it out. Post your result in comments and the person who is the closest to all three candidate results will win a steak dinner with Gregg Durham.

Just kidding.

Or not. We’ll see how Gregg reacts to this post.

* Meanwhile, subscribers already know that I’ve endorsed TrackBill, a really well-designed bill tracking system. It constantly scans everything over at LIS and will text or e-mail you right after any sort of legislation is introduced or moves that relates to your interests.

Very cool stuff, but - and this is important - make sure to click on their ad in the center column or click here so this website gets the credit. I love the product, but a guy’s gotta eat.

* Back to politics, the folks at Bing.com would like you to know that they have a fancy new election forecaster. Click here to see how their system sees the Illinois governor’s race playing out.

Have you seen any cool new political apps out there?

- Posted by Rich Miller   28 Comments      


McKeon upset by “hatchet job”

Thursday, Oct 30, 2014

* From pollster Mike McKeon regarding my opinion of yesterday’s Sun-Times poll story…

Rich, hadn’t seen your hatchet job before I talked to you. If you even bothered to check the cross tabs you would have seen that the reporter was referring to the Southern Illinois section of my poll (below) and not downstate out side the collar counties. If you are calling an area that has St Clair, Madison and Jackson counties in it a traditional Republican strong hold then - I fear- you are snorting pixie dust..

If you believe that social issues - which is all the Dem super pacs are pushing -are more important to women then jobs, good luck. And you think Frerichs is a much more traditional ballot name than Cross? Also the Rauner spokes person is a moron, he has a chance to say Rauner is doing well with women talking jobs and he blasts the down state numbers instead?

As for the “controversial” women’s vote I go with what is there. Whether it is Madigan (see attached) to LaRouche, to Duke in Louisiana, to the recall elections in Colorado last year or showing that Rahm was not viewed favorably - that is what I do - show what’s there when I poll. I know I will take heat when I come out with things like this. Been taking heat for a long time, no problem.

As for your offer to kiss my ass if I am right I will pass- would not be able to tell if your mooning or kissing.it.

All the best Mike

* OK, first of all, I excerpted the Sun-Times story on the Downstate numbers. If he has a beef with that, he should take it up with the Sun-Times.

Secondly, here’s how McKeon explained the highly unusual poll result showing women favored Rauner 55-38

But McKeon stands by the numbers, saying the high percentage of cellphone interviews in his polling captures a better cross-section of women of all ages than other surveys that are more dependant on traditional land lines.

And McKeon said women want to hear more about good-paying jobs and the economy and believe that the Democratic message has been too focused on social issues and the minimum wage.

“Women are in bad shape in the work force and the Democrats, all they’re doing is pushing social issues, overwhelmingly,” McKeon argued.

* Thirdly, notice how he never explains why Quinn is supposedly leading Rauner among men by 23 points, 53-30. I mean, that’s more unusual than the women’s preference. By far.

From the 2010 exit poll

* And lastly, I did indeed tell him yesterday that I would publicly kiss his behind if the exit polls show Quinn winning men by a huge margin and losing women by a huge margin while still managing to win the race. I figured it was a safe bet.

* Also, the attachments he sent are here…

* Regions defined

* 1983 letter from Mike Madigan

* 1980s era article on the LaRouchies

* 1991 articles on David Duke race

* 2013 Colorado recall press release and article

- Posted by Rich Miller   51 Comments      


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Thursday, Oct 30, 2014

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