SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Con-Con; Poll Crosstabs; Forby; Hospitals; Transit; Convictions; Simon; Ingemunson; Walters (Use all caps in password)

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

- Posted by Rich Miller   Enter your password to view comments      


Obamarama - New Illinois poll shows Obama lead here outstrips Hillary’s in NY, wide open Republican race *** Updated x4 ***

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

[Updated and bumped up to make it easier to find.]

My political newsletter, Capitol Fax, commissioned a new statewide poll last week of presidential preference in Illinois. Only “hardcore” voters in each party were surveyed - see my weekly syndicated column below for more details…

Democrats
Obama 52.6
Clinton 24.6
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.3
Kucinich 1.25
Dodd 0.53
Undecided 6.9

Republicans
McCain 26.1
Giuliani 25.7
F. Thompson 17.4
Romney 10.2
T. Thompson 3.3
Undecided 17.2

And here’s the column

It may be no surprise to some, but new polling shows Barack Obama is doing better with hardcore Illinois primary voters than Hillary Clinton is doing with voters in her home state of New York. Also, voters are split over whether Obama should be more critical of Chicago corruption, and the Republican presidential primary appears wide open here.

The Illinois poll was commissioned by my political newsletter, Capitol Fax. The poll, taken last Thursday, surveyed registered voters who have chosen either Democratic or Republican ballots in the past two presidential primaries and have never picked a different ballot. They’re the hardcore of the hardcore and are very likely to vote.

The poll found Obama leading the pack of presidential hopefuls here with 52.6 percent of the vote among hardcore Democrats. Clinton came in second with 24.6 percent. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards was third with 9.5 percent. None of the other declared candidates topped 3 percent, while 6.9 percent chose either “other” or “undecided.”

In New York, two recent polls have shown Clinton with a bigger lead but polling well under 50 percent. A Quinnipac University poll had her ahead of Obama 44 to 14, but a more recent survey from Siena College’s Research Institute had Clinton ahead of the second place Obama 39 to 17 with 13 percent of Democrats undecided.

Obama captured well over 70 percent of the vote in the 2004 US Senate race, so his Illinois numbers in this latest poll might be a surprise to some who expected him to be doing even better. Clinton was raised in Illinois and is, of course, a very well known commodity. That probably explains why she is polling higher here than Obama is polling in New York.

The Illinois poll also found voters are evenly split over whether Obama has been sufficiently critical of Mayor Richard Daley regarding corruption in city hall.

A tad more than 49 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican primary voters said they believed Obama has sufficiently criticized Daley, who just won another landslide re-election race, while 50.8 percent said he has not been critical enough.

The issue of Obama’s alliance with the Daley Machine has been a much bigger issue in Illinois than it has been on the national stage. But since this story is being constantly pushed here, it has the potential to one day bleed into the national debate.

About 60 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican residents of Chicago and Cook County thought he had criticized Daley enough, but just 36 percent of downstate voters believe he has sufficiently criticized Daley.

Slightly less than 61 percent of hardcore Democratic voters said he has done enough to criticize Daley, while 35 percent of hardcore GOP voters said the same. A majority, 53 percent, of suburban collar county primary voters said he has criticized the mayor enough while 47 percent said he hadn’t.

Meanwhile, the poll also showed that Illinois’ Republican presidential primary appears to be wide open.

The survey of hardcore Republican primary voters showed U.S. Sen. John McCain with an ever-so-slight lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. McCain was ahead of Giuliani 26.1 to 25.7.

Former U.S. Sen. and TV actor Fred Thompson came in third with 17.7 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was fourth with 10.2 percent, and former Wisconsin Gov. and George W. Bush cabinet member Tommy Thompson was fifth with just 3.3 percent. Undecideds and “other” totaled 17 percent.

McCain is slipping rapidly in national polling, but he still has support among Illinoisans who backed him in his 2000 presidential bid. Giuliani recently signed up House Republican Leader Tom Cross, who is helping get that organization together. Thompson has not yet formally announced, but he is looking more like a candidate every day.

The automated phone poll was conducted by “Ask Illinois,” which has done a lot of polling for political candidates and interest groups and has a good reputation among insiders. The firm uses special technology to blast out hundreds of calls simultaneously and they contact huge numbers of people. In this case 3,509 hardcore Democrats and 3,761 Republicans responded to the poll, leaving us with an extremely low margin of error of +/- 1.18 to +/- 1.52 percent, depending on the question. Republicans and Democrats who indicated they intend to cross over to the other party next year were omitted from these results. The difference was statistically insignificant.

Crosstabs will be posted later this morning in the subscriber-only section.

*** UPDATE *** RealClearPolitics covers the poll.

And here’s a press release announcing the poll…

CapFaxrelease.jpg

*** UPDATE 2 *** Metro Networks, which has member radio stations all over Illinois, covered the poll this morning…

Democrats who plan to vote in next year’s presidential primary have a much better idea of who they plan to support than Republicans. A new polls for the political newsletter “Capitol Fax” shows Illinois U.S. Senator Barack Obama with a huge lead over Senator Hillary Clinton. Both have ties to Illinois, but Obama leads the hardcore primary voter poll by 28-percent. The poll asked people who’ve voted in the last two primaries for the same party who they plan to support. Obama pulled in 52-point-6 percent, Senator Clinton is in second with 24-point-6, and Senator John Edwards has about 9-and-a-half percent.

It’s a much closer field for the Republicans. John McCain leads among his hardcore supporters, edging out Rudy Giuliani 26-point-1 to 25-point-7. Fred Thompson is third, and Mitt Romney fourth. Pollsters say the hardcore voters will vote in the primary, and a look at their support is a solid indicator of who may win Illinois if the state moves to an earlier primary for 2008.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Rasmussen has a new national poll that has Obama leading the pack

For the first time in the Election 2008 season, somebody other than New York Senator Hillary Clinton is on top in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Illinois Senator Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant two point advantage over the former First Lady. It’s Obama 32% Clinton 30%. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third with support holding steady at 17%. No other candidate tops 3%. The survey was conducted April 23-26, 2007 meaning that the overwhelming majority of the interviews were completed before last Thursday’s debate in South Carolina. The impact of the debate will be measured in polling conducted this week.

*** UPDATE 4 *** The Daily Herald’s bloggy type thing Animal Farm gives us some props

The Capitol Fax newsletter has done what I think is the first presidential poll for ‘08. It shows Democratic Sen. Barack Obama with a huge lead, more than 2-to-1, over the field in his adopted home state. On the Republican side, it’s tres tight between Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, whose wife is from Naperville, was a surprising third.

- Posted by Rich Miller   24 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

Despite all the cash dumped into state health insurance expansion plans, the problem continues to worsen. According to the Tribune, a study released Friday showed that “1.8 million residents were uninsured in Illinois in 2005, up about 2 percent from the year before.”

“What this tells us is even with everything Illinois is doing, this problem is getting worse,” said Michael Taitel, board president at the Gilead Outreach and Referral Center, which published the study and focuses on the uninsured.

It’s happening largely because of a well-documented, long-term trend: Fewer employers are offering medical coverage to employees and their families as insurance premiums and health-care costs soar.

Between 2001 and 2005, the portion of Illinois’ population covered by employer-based insurance fell from 74.9 percent to 72.8 percent, the Gilead Center’s analysis shows. […]

Statewide, 367,995 families with an annual income of more than $50,000 included at least one family member younger than 65 who was uninsured in 2005—or nearly 40 percent of all uninsured families.

The Gilead Center study can be found here [pdf file].

As if on cue, two longtime proponents of single-payer health plans penned an op-ed in the Sun-Times

Illinois has only two options for health reform: preserve private insurance companies (and the huge systemic waste they generate), or scrap them and use the savings to cover everyone. Sadly, Blagojevich has joined President Bush, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in offering the private insurance route.

The better approach would be to replace insurance companies with Medicare-like universal public health insurance, a system that has afforded the rest of the industrialized world better health for half our per-capita cost (or less).

Question: Do you support a single-payer system? Why or why not?

- Posted by Rich Miller   34 Comments      


More trouble for the GRT *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

Phil Kadner had a very good column over the weekend. I say that at least partly because he beat me to this angle.

What happened was the Illinois Education and A+ Illinois have organized a Statehouse rally this week. Originally, the rally was supposed to tout the governor’s gross receipts tax proposal to fund education. But the groups got some push-back, particularly from longtime tax swap supporters, and now it’s just a general “let’s fund education” to-do….

“We’re not choosing sides here,” said a spokesman for the Illinois Education Association, which actually did choose sides earlier this year by supporting the GRT. “This is a citizens rally to tell legislators the time has come to get something done.” […]

Voliva said the IEA agreed to a more generic rally in support of increased school funding. It also agreed not to allow any politicians to speak.

So her organization [Better Funding for Better Schools] — which includes the Illinois PTA, League of Women Voters and a number of grass roots education advocacy groups — agreed to participate.

Here’s the original IEA flyer on the rally and a close-up of the GRT language [click for larger pics]…

IEAflyer.jpg iea_closeup.jpg

And here’s the new IEA statement and the new A+ Illinois info on the rally…

current_iea_statement.jpg newaplusflier.jpg

Needless to say, this is not good news for Gov. Blagojevich’s tax and spending plan. The guv’s office has tried its very best to stamp out all mentions of the tax swap, but it keeps coming back up. The Illinois Federation of Teachers is currently withholding support from the spending component (along with the Illinois AFL-CIO).

There is little if any momentum for the governor’s plans at the Statehouse right now. A generic education funding rally is definitely not something he wanted.

* Meanwhile, a couple of pro-business think-tank types take after both the GRT and the tax swap in an op-ed entitled “Blagojevich’s tax plan is bad … Meeks’ is worse

Both proposals would have adverse, if not devastating, effects on the Illinois economy. But taxpayer advocates should hand it to the governor. His is only the second-most reckless plan on the table this spring.

And a Rockford Register-Star article includes this line about the competing proposals…

But chances of either plan passing appear slim as the plans compete for political support.

*** UPDATE *** The IEA has a new TV ad that makes no mention of the GRT. Entitled “Someday” it ends with the tagline “Tell your state Senator and Representative to support school funding reform.” Click the pic to watch [.mov file]…

- Posted by Rich Miller   33 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

* No House vote yet on electric rates

* Blagojevich’s tollway sign drive push to close loopholes

* McQueary: The intrigue of ethics legislation

* WSIU show explores work of Illinois lawmakers

* In support of HB1500; in opposition

* Civil damages bill could reignite ire of doctors

* Michigan unveils comprehensive business tax relief plan; more here

In a move to jumpstart Michigan’s economy and reward businesses that create jobs here in Michigan, House leadership today unveiled a comprehensive business tax and incentive package that rewards investment, protects Michigan-based companies, and ensures funding for education, health care and the 21st Century Jobs Fund.

* Players ponder state’s power rate debate

* Compromise sought on electric rate freeze

* Electric rates caught in sticky web

* Aaron Chambers: Power politics puts ComEd back in the rate freeze mix

* Editorial: Real leadership is needed to ease electric rate crisis

* Editorial: Political games in Springfield hurt electric issue

Years from now, political science classes probably will be studying the Illinois deregulation/rate-setting issue as an example of how not to do something.

* Statehouse Insider: Electric rates and Media ducking: “It’s pretty much official now. None of the top Democrats in the state is talking to the news media.”

* Public will get to go up in dome of Old State Capitol

* Bill would bring fluorescent light to state buildings

* House votes to expand malpractice damages

* Lynn Sweet: Obama admits being nervous at first debate

Obama replied that while a state senator, “The first bill I ever passed was campaign finance reform legislation.'’ He’s wrong. It was not his first bill. Sun-Times Springfield Bureau Chief Dave McKinney reports that as a chief co-sponsor, Obama played an important role in passing that legislation May 22, 1998. Obama’s first bill passed on his own in the state Senate required the state’s community colleges to publish a directory of students with vocational and technical skills.

* Video: Raw interview with Obama

* Carol Marin: Ald. Preckiwinkle speaks out on Rezko

* Subcontractor with Rezko ties hasn’t shown it’s done any work

* Moseley Braun attacked in failed robbery attempt

* CPS cuts 11% of teaching force

* Tribune Editorial: Another form of TIF abuse

* Hinz: Mayor must allow real community participation in the Olympic effort

* Middle school students get close look at government

* Who says art and politics don’t mix?

* Illinois Reason: Is tipping included?

* Eastern Illinois raises tutition 12%

* States seek ‘robocall’ limits in campaigns

* Editorial: More state funds needed for Pace paratransit program

- Posted by Paul Richardson   5 Comments      


PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Durbin's back to the future?
* Rauner bites back at union leaders
* Finally, some good Illinois news
* Question of the day
* Attorney General's office says plaintiffs can't back out of Duckworth settlement
* Can't win for losing
* Rauner claims he's meeting with Dem legislators today
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Rauner press conference
* *** UPDATED x1 - Gov. Rauner slams story *** Report that Mrs. Rauner wants no reelection is disputed
* Another judge rules that IDPH director violated due process rights
* "It’s not even close to being balanced"
* Kirk campaign admits contact with "whistleblowers" after Duckworth settlement
* Durbin attacks Rauner, says he'll decide about run after November
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Democratic National Convention
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** UPDATED x1 - Emanuel responds *** Right under the bus he goes
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Best multiplayer games
* White Noise 7 is out, and wants to be like Instagram for restful sounds
* New iMovie for iOS Update Makes it Easier to Start and Share Projects
* Alphabet’s huge Q2 shows its ads business may not be so challenged after all
* The latest on what to expect from the Galaxy Note 7
* Protecting Your Privacy in Safari for iOS
* Opternative and 1-800-Contacts now let users get updated prescriptions from home

* White Sox Rumors: Interest in James Shields is increasing
* Ranaudo flirts with no-no before Sox falter late
* Ranaudo the first AL pitcher to homer in 2016
* Midseason update: White Sox Top 30 Prospects list
* Cubs 8, White Sox 1: Anthony Ranaudo can't do it all
* Sale returns from suspension to face Cubs
* Ranaudo flirts with no-no before Sox falter late

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Labor's Ire for Rauner On Display at the DNC - .....
* Rauner hoping for windfall with new lottery ope.....
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divi.....
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divi.....
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divi.....
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divi.....
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divi.....
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divi.....


* 'The House on Mango Street' novel turned into art exhibit
* Standing Rock Sioux sues Corps over oil pipeline permits
* Fire erupts at Gurnee propane plant
* Illinois towns seek solutions to Lake Michigan sand erosion
* Gary woman found stabbed to death with man identified
* East Chicago residents advised to leave complex due to lead
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lottery
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lottery
* Chicago-area man convicted of $4.7 million Medicaid fraud
* Indiana gospel singer convicted in Illinois child sex case

* Local unemployment again lowest in state for June
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lottery
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divide Illinois
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lotter
* Chicago-area man convicted of $4.7 million Medicaid fraud
* Blagojevich won't attend resentencing, to take part by video
* Chicago-area man convicted of bilking Medicaid for millions
* Rauner: Illinois doing all it can on Legionnaires' cases
* Chris Kennedy blasts Gov. Rauner at Democrats' convention
* AP source: Site for Obama's presidential library chosen

* Fire erupts at Gurnee propane plant
* This artist is working to make children's hospital wards a little brighter
* Americans blow $27.8 billion a year by being lazy
* U.S. opposes Anthem push for a quick trial in Cigna merger case
* U of C, Northwestern are middle-rated in controversial hospital ranking


* Official Prince tribute concert set for October
* Catalina Island: Grazing buffalo and a new museum
* Bears RB Jeremy Langford bulks up for possible bigger workload
* More than 300 flights canceled at O’Hare and Midway due to storms
* Mona Charen: Where does a patriot turn in 2016?
* Rauner hoping for windfall with new lottery operator
* Man killed, woman injured in West Garfield Park shooting
* Large fire, explosions reported at Gurnee propane company
* Jack Higgins’ Perspective for July 29, 2016
* Lollapalooza: Food, art complement the music at Chicago fest


* Live Blog: Storms but no evacuation expected on day one of Lollapalooza
* Zion man shot during pursuit charged with DUI, fleeing police
* Man convicted in Chandra Levy's death won't be retried
* Police: Seventh New York resident charged in attempted Apple Store fraud
* Jimmy Butler on his reputation in the NBA: 'I know where I stand'
* Body found in garage in Chatham identified as missing woman
* Mayor: 'Large-scale fire' at propane facility in Gurnee
* U.S. rejects Whole Foods' trademark claim as 'World's Healthiest Grocery Store'
* Viking warship captain downplays diplomatic spat with U.S. Coast Guard
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 7/28/16


* Local unemployment again lowest in state for June
* Illinois seeking new private manager for state's lottery
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to divide Illinois
* Chicago-area man convicted of $4.7 million Medicaid fraud
* Blagojevich won't attend resentencing, to take part by video
* Bernard Schoenburg: Durbin leads a very early 2018 gubernatorial poll
* George Will: The path ahead for Clinton
* U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk: Fighting the heroin epidemic in Central Illinois
* Eugene Robinson: Can the Democrats stay out of their own way?
* Chicago-area man convicted of bilking Medicaid for millions


* Carbondale man sentenced to prison for biting son's arm
* 07-28-16 Jim Turpin with the Cast of Oklahoma from the Champaign Urbana Theatre Company @cutheatreco @thevirginia
* 07-28-16 Penny for Your Thoughts
* Small plane crashes near Dwight Airport
* Armed robbery reported at Twin City credit union
* 2016 Champaign County 4-H Livestock Shows
* Champaign County Fair: 4-H Livestock Shows
* Q-C unemployment rises to 5.6% in June
* Street closures listing
* Boil Order


* Afternoon storm floods streets, uproots trees in Palatine
* Buffalo Grove heroin OD victim becomes namesake for federal law
* Thibodeua returns to United Center with Team USA
* Gurnee propane plant fire upgraded to seventh alarm
* Storm warning canceled in DuPage, Kane, but heavy rains cancel flights

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to......
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to......
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to......
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to......
* Durbin rips Rauner, says governor tries to......

* 2 US Senate candidates fail to get on Illi......
* 2 US Senate candidates fail to gather need......
* 2 US Senate candidates fail to gather need......
* 2 US Senate candidates fail to gather need......

* Police Shootings and Race
* House Republicans Tap Breen to Fill Vacancy on Bipartisan Reform Working Group
* Rogue Tickets? Watch Your Car For 7-Day Tow Notices
* #TBT - November 2009: Maryville Site In Development Talks
* Graphic For 'Utilities Pay Up' Report
* IPS Graphic
* Cartoon of the Day - 7/28/16 Trump and Putin DNC emails
* Sign At Chicago 'Freedom Square' Encampment
* 'Freedom Square' Tent City
* Chicago Activists At 'Freedom Square' Encampment


* Governor Rauner and Illinois Lottery Seek New Management Partner
* Governor Visits Quincy Veterans Home Following New Cases of Legionnaires’ Disease
* Zika Virus And The 2016 Summer Olympics - Travel guidance for those heading to Brazil for the Olympics
* Two Cases of Legionnaires’ Disease Identified in Adams County - New admissions to Quincy Veterans' Home halted
* Serve Illinois Commission Announces $15.6 Million for AmeriCorps Programs - 32 grantees will place almost 1,600 AmeriCorps volunteers in communities




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller