SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Con-Con; Poll Crosstabs; Forby; Hospitals; Transit; Convictions; Simon; Ingemunson; Walters (Use all caps in password)

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

- Posted by Rich Miller   Enter your password to view comments      


Obamarama - New Illinois poll shows Obama lead here outstrips Hillary’s in NY, wide open Republican race *** Updated x4 ***

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

[Updated and bumped up to make it easier to find.]

My political newsletter, Capitol Fax, commissioned a new statewide poll last week of presidential preference in Illinois. Only “hardcore” voters in each party were surveyed - see my weekly syndicated column below for more details…

Democrats
Obama 52.6
Clinton 24.6
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.3
Kucinich 1.25
Dodd 0.53
Undecided 6.9

Republicans
McCain 26.1
Giuliani 25.7
F. Thompson 17.4
Romney 10.2
T. Thompson 3.3
Undecided 17.2

And here’s the column

It may be no surprise to some, but new polling shows Barack Obama is doing better with hardcore Illinois primary voters than Hillary Clinton is doing with voters in her home state of New York. Also, voters are split over whether Obama should be more critical of Chicago corruption, and the Republican presidential primary appears wide open here.

The Illinois poll was commissioned by my political newsletter, Capitol Fax. The poll, taken last Thursday, surveyed registered voters who have chosen either Democratic or Republican ballots in the past two presidential primaries and have never picked a different ballot. They’re the hardcore of the hardcore and are very likely to vote.

The poll found Obama leading the pack of presidential hopefuls here with 52.6 percent of the vote among hardcore Democrats. Clinton came in second with 24.6 percent. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards was third with 9.5 percent. None of the other declared candidates topped 3 percent, while 6.9 percent chose either “other” or “undecided.”

In New York, two recent polls have shown Clinton with a bigger lead but polling well under 50 percent. A Quinnipac University poll had her ahead of Obama 44 to 14, but a more recent survey from Siena College’s Research Institute had Clinton ahead of the second place Obama 39 to 17 with 13 percent of Democrats undecided.

Obama captured well over 70 percent of the vote in the 2004 US Senate race, so his Illinois numbers in this latest poll might be a surprise to some who expected him to be doing even better. Clinton was raised in Illinois and is, of course, a very well known commodity. That probably explains why she is polling higher here than Obama is polling in New York.

The Illinois poll also found voters are evenly split over whether Obama has been sufficiently critical of Mayor Richard Daley regarding corruption in city hall.

A tad more than 49 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican primary voters said they believed Obama has sufficiently criticized Daley, who just won another landslide re-election race, while 50.8 percent said he has not been critical enough.

The issue of Obama’s alliance with the Daley Machine has been a much bigger issue in Illinois than it has been on the national stage. But since this story is being constantly pushed here, it has the potential to one day bleed into the national debate.

About 60 percent of hardcore Democratic and Republican residents of Chicago and Cook County thought he had criticized Daley enough, but just 36 percent of downstate voters believe he has sufficiently criticized Daley.

Slightly less than 61 percent of hardcore Democratic voters said he has done enough to criticize Daley, while 35 percent of hardcore GOP voters said the same. A majority, 53 percent, of suburban collar county primary voters said he has criticized the mayor enough while 47 percent said he hadn’t.

Meanwhile, the poll also showed that Illinois’ Republican presidential primary appears to be wide open.

The survey of hardcore Republican primary voters showed U.S. Sen. John McCain with an ever-so-slight lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. McCain was ahead of Giuliani 26.1 to 25.7.

Former U.S. Sen. and TV actor Fred Thompson came in third with 17.7 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was fourth with 10.2 percent, and former Wisconsin Gov. and George W. Bush cabinet member Tommy Thompson was fifth with just 3.3 percent. Undecideds and “other” totaled 17 percent.

McCain is slipping rapidly in national polling, but he still has support among Illinoisans who backed him in his 2000 presidential bid. Giuliani recently signed up House Republican Leader Tom Cross, who is helping get that organization together. Thompson has not yet formally announced, but he is looking more like a candidate every day.

The automated phone poll was conducted by “Ask Illinois,” which has done a lot of polling for political candidates and interest groups and has a good reputation among insiders. The firm uses special technology to blast out hundreds of calls simultaneously and they contact huge numbers of people. In this case 3,509 hardcore Democrats and 3,761 Republicans responded to the poll, leaving us with an extremely low margin of error of +/- 1.18 to +/- 1.52 percent, depending on the question. Republicans and Democrats who indicated they intend to cross over to the other party next year were omitted from these results. The difference was statistically insignificant.

Crosstabs will be posted later this morning in the subscriber-only section.

*** UPDATE *** RealClearPolitics covers the poll.

And here’s a press release announcing the poll…

CapFaxrelease.jpg

*** UPDATE 2 *** Metro Networks, which has member radio stations all over Illinois, covered the poll this morning…

Democrats who plan to vote in next year’s presidential primary have a much better idea of who they plan to support than Republicans. A new polls for the political newsletter “Capitol Fax” shows Illinois U.S. Senator Barack Obama with a huge lead over Senator Hillary Clinton. Both have ties to Illinois, but Obama leads the hardcore primary voter poll by 28-percent. The poll asked people who’ve voted in the last two primaries for the same party who they plan to support. Obama pulled in 52-point-6 percent, Senator Clinton is in second with 24-point-6, and Senator John Edwards has about 9-and-a-half percent.

It’s a much closer field for the Republicans. John McCain leads among his hardcore supporters, edging out Rudy Giuliani 26-point-1 to 25-point-7. Fred Thompson is third, and Mitt Romney fourth. Pollsters say the hardcore voters will vote in the primary, and a look at their support is a solid indicator of who may win Illinois if the state moves to an earlier primary for 2008.

*** UPDATE 3 *** Rasmussen has a new national poll that has Obama leading the pack

For the first time in the Election 2008 season, somebody other than New York Senator Hillary Clinton is on top in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Illinois Senator Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant two point advantage over the former First Lady. It’s Obama 32% Clinton 30%. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third with support holding steady at 17%. No other candidate tops 3%. The survey was conducted April 23-26, 2007 meaning that the overwhelming majority of the interviews were completed before last Thursday’s debate in South Carolina. The impact of the debate will be measured in polling conducted this week.

*** UPDATE 4 *** The Daily Herald’s bloggy type thing Animal Farm gives us some props

The Capitol Fax newsletter has done what I think is the first presidential poll for ‘08. It shows Democratic Sen. Barack Obama with a huge lead, more than 2-to-1, over the field in his adopted home state. On the Republican side, it’s tres tight between Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Sen. Fred Thompson, whose wife is from Naperville, was a surprising third.

- Posted by Rich Miller   24 Comments      


Question of the day

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

Despite all the cash dumped into state health insurance expansion plans, the problem continues to worsen. According to the Tribune, a study released Friday showed that “1.8 million residents were uninsured in Illinois in 2005, up about 2 percent from the year before.”

“What this tells us is even with everything Illinois is doing, this problem is getting worse,” said Michael Taitel, board president at the Gilead Outreach and Referral Center, which published the study and focuses on the uninsured.

It’s happening largely because of a well-documented, long-term trend: Fewer employers are offering medical coverage to employees and their families as insurance premiums and health-care costs soar.

Between 2001 and 2005, the portion of Illinois’ population covered by employer-based insurance fell from 74.9 percent to 72.8 percent, the Gilead Center’s analysis shows. […]

Statewide, 367,995 families with an annual income of more than $50,000 included at least one family member younger than 65 who was uninsured in 2005—or nearly 40 percent of all uninsured families.

The Gilead Center study can be found here [pdf file].

As if on cue, two longtime proponents of single-payer health plans penned an op-ed in the Sun-Times

Illinois has only two options for health reform: preserve private insurance companies (and the huge systemic waste they generate), or scrap them and use the savings to cover everyone. Sadly, Blagojevich has joined President Bush, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in offering the private insurance route.

The better approach would be to replace insurance companies with Medicare-like universal public health insurance, a system that has afforded the rest of the industrialized world better health for half our per-capita cost (or less).

Question: Do you support a single-payer system? Why or why not?

- Posted by Rich Miller   34 Comments      


More trouble for the GRT *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

Phil Kadner had a very good column over the weekend. I say that at least partly because he beat me to this angle.

What happened was the Illinois Education and A+ Illinois have organized a Statehouse rally this week. Originally, the rally was supposed to tout the governor’s gross receipts tax proposal to fund education. But the groups got some push-back, particularly from longtime tax swap supporters, and now it’s just a general “let’s fund education” to-do….

“We’re not choosing sides here,” said a spokesman for the Illinois Education Association, which actually did choose sides earlier this year by supporting the GRT. “This is a citizens rally to tell legislators the time has come to get something done.” […]

Voliva said the IEA agreed to a more generic rally in support of increased school funding. It also agreed not to allow any politicians to speak.

So her organization [Better Funding for Better Schools] — which includes the Illinois PTA, League of Women Voters and a number of grass roots education advocacy groups — agreed to participate.

Here’s the original IEA flyer on the rally and a close-up of the GRT language [click for larger pics]…

IEAflyer.jpg iea_closeup.jpg

And here’s the new IEA statement and the new A+ Illinois info on the rally…

current_iea_statement.jpg newaplusflier.jpg

Needless to say, this is not good news for Gov. Blagojevich’s tax and spending plan. The guv’s office has tried its very best to stamp out all mentions of the tax swap, but it keeps coming back up. The Illinois Federation of Teachers is currently withholding support from the spending component (along with the Illinois AFL-CIO).

There is little if any momentum for the governor’s plans at the Statehouse right now. A generic education funding rally is definitely not something he wanted.

* Meanwhile, a couple of pro-business think-tank types take after both the GRT and the tax swap in an op-ed entitled “Blagojevich’s tax plan is bad … Meeks’ is worse

Both proposals would have adverse, if not devastating, effects on the Illinois economy. But taxpayer advocates should hand it to the governor. His is only the second-most reckless plan on the table this spring.

And a Rockford Register-Star article includes this line about the competing proposals…

But chances of either plan passing appear slim as the plans compete for political support.

*** UPDATE *** The IEA has a new TV ad that makes no mention of the GRT. Entitled “Someday” it ends with the tagline “Tell your state Senator and Representative to support school funding reform.” Click the pic to watch [.mov file]…

- Posted by Rich Miller   33 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Monday, Apr 30, 2007

* No House vote yet on electric rates

* Blagojevich’s tollway sign drive push to close loopholes

* McQueary: The intrigue of ethics legislation

* WSIU show explores work of Illinois lawmakers

* In support of HB1500; in opposition

* Civil damages bill could reignite ire of doctors

* Michigan unveils comprehensive business tax relief plan; more here

In a move to jumpstart Michigan’s economy and reward businesses that create jobs here in Michigan, House leadership today unveiled a comprehensive business tax and incentive package that rewards investment, protects Michigan-based companies, and ensures funding for education, health care and the 21st Century Jobs Fund.

* Players ponder state’s power rate debate

* Compromise sought on electric rate freeze

* Electric rates caught in sticky web

* Aaron Chambers: Power politics puts ComEd back in the rate freeze mix

* Editorial: Real leadership is needed to ease electric rate crisis

* Editorial: Political games in Springfield hurt electric issue

Years from now, political science classes probably will be studying the Illinois deregulation/rate-setting issue as an example of how not to do something.

* Statehouse Insider: Electric rates and Media ducking: “It’s pretty much official now. None of the top Democrats in the state is talking to the news media.”

* Public will get to go up in dome of Old State Capitol

* Bill would bring fluorescent light to state buildings

* House votes to expand malpractice damages

* Lynn Sweet: Obama admits being nervous at first debate

Obama replied that while a state senator, “The first bill I ever passed was campaign finance reform legislation.'’ He’s wrong. It was not his first bill. Sun-Times Springfield Bureau Chief Dave McKinney reports that as a chief co-sponsor, Obama played an important role in passing that legislation May 22, 1998. Obama’s first bill passed on his own in the state Senate required the state’s community colleges to publish a directory of students with vocational and technical skills.

* Video: Raw interview with Obama

* Carol Marin: Ald. Preckiwinkle speaks out on Rezko

* Subcontractor with Rezko ties hasn’t shown it’s done any work

* Moseley Braun attacked in failed robbery attempt

* CPS cuts 11% of teaching force

* Tribune Editorial: Another form of TIF abuse

* Hinz: Mayor must allow real community participation in the Olympic effort

* Middle school students get close look at government

* Who says art and politics don’t mix?

* Illinois Reason: Is tipping included?

* Eastern Illinois raises tutition 12%

* States seek ‘robocall’ limits in campaigns

* Editorial: More state funds needed for Pace paratransit program

- Posted by Paul Richardson   5 Comments      


PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Reader comments closed until Tuesday
* Oh, for crying out loud
* Not as simple as it may look
* *** UPDATED x1 *** State complies with court order on DD payments
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day
* Nuding praises Arduin
* YOU Matter to Illinois Credit Unions
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Point, counter-point
* Not there yet
* Will remap reform proposal hurt Democrats?
* Where are they now?
* Putting two and two together
* No excuse for this loophole
* From a "trap" to a "magnet"
* FOP wants override of AFSCME bill veto
* Report: 34,000 losing independent living services
* No movement yet
* Today's number: $58.1 million
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * How do you customize your phone?
        * Hangin’ with Dr. Cooper: an interview with “the father of the cellphone”
        * Travel into the ghost realm in Whispering Willows, now on Android 
        * Amazon Echo gets new multi-account support, BART schedule access
        * Bullet Boy’s fast-paced action gameplay will make you playing for hours
        * Verizon to start offering special deals on #WhyNotWednesday
        * DoubleClick ads get a Material overhaul

        * Kenny Williams update: Seattle has an opening; Toronto's might be c...
        * Double play ends White Sox rally in seventh
        * Danks on short end of duel because of HRs
        * Mariners 2, White Sox 0: Solo shots spoil John Danks' night
        * Danks on short end of duel because of HRs
        * Samardzija tries to end winless streak against Mariners
        * Thompson understands part-time role

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * House fire kills 2 men in southwest Chicago
        * Illinois will be first state to lock painkiller pill bottles
        * Slain US marshal's fiancee gets 1 year for charity theft
        * Belleville man charged in St. Louis New Year's Eve crash
        * Family seeks answers in East St. Louis strip club killing
        * Chicago police kill man they say tried to run over officers
        * Awards recognize Illinois students with big ideas
        * Chicago's Divvy bike-share program attracts developer
        * Ex-Washington mayor Don Gronewald dead at 83
        * Authorities say carbon monoxide is cause of death of 2

        * Illinois will be first state to lock painkiller pill bottles
        * Donna Arduin out as Gov. Rauner's state budget adviser
        * Cash-strapped Illinois: Can't do 'impossible' on social service payments
        * Arduin out as state budget adviser
        * Rauner signs bill allowing township governments to dissolve
        * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration
        * Judge will privately review disputed Schock documents
        * Budget expert leaves Illinois without state spending plan
        * Gov. Rauner approves Springfield railroad oversight commission bill
        * Federal judge blasts Illinois for not making all ordered payments

        * Beckman denies Illinois probe's findings, hints at lawsuit
        * Rauner, Dems double down on budget gamble
        * The revolving door spins at Bonobos
        * Starcom wins U.S. media for new Kraft Heinz company
        * Baxalta in talks to buy drugmaker to bolster independence


          * 'Flames had to be just ferocious:' 2 die in suspicious Southwest Side fire
          * Man killed, at least 11 wounded in separate shootings
          * One dead in Heart of Chicago after police-involved shooting, crashes
          * Man, 37, wounded in drive-by shooting on West Side
          * Illinois will be first state to lock painkiller pill bottles
          * Wife of former Naperville Mayor Pradel succumbs to cancer
          * Officers shot armed man in Oswego, police say
          * Hundreds gather to remember victims of deadly 1990 Plainfield tornado


          * Illinois will be first state to lock painkiller pill bottles
          * Donna Arduin out as Gov. Rauner's state budget adviser
          * Cash-strapped Illinois: Can't do 'impossible' on social service payments
          * Charles Krauthammer: What six years of 'reset' have wrought
          * Rauner signs bill allowing township governments to dissolve
          * Our Opinion: Ducking sunshine in the digital age
          * E.J. Dionne: Trump's video game mastery
          * Esther Cepeda: Don't bake your DNA
          * Junaid Afeef: American Muslims can't tackle ISIS recruitment alone
          * Budget consultant may get second contract extension from Rauner administration


          * Efficient Illini claim another sweep
          * Saturday SportsTalk 08-29-15
          * Now hiring
          * UI losing star professor to Northwestern
          * Hypocritical governor needs to be consistent
          * Weekend planner: Marking Matsuri
          * Smokers subjected to unfair treatment
          * Area history, Aug. 29, 2015
          * This day in history, Aug. 29, 2015
          * Tate: Believe me when I say change is good


          * New road projects cementing region's future
          * State of the Suburbs: Recreation finds creative ways to expand
          * State of suburbs: Investors pump new life into business
          * State of Suburbs: Entertainment a big business
          * State of the Suburbs: Changing standards, tests transform schools

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Illinois' Durbin gets a shot at political ......
          * Iran deal gives No. 2 Senate Democrat Dick......
          * Illinois Sen. Durbin gets a shot at politi......

          * Shangri-La set to tee off at NBO Golf Clas......

          * Filmmaker Talks About His Documentary Alleging Child Sexual Abuse At JPUSA: "They're Not Going To Shut Me Up With Money"
          * Landmarked District Proposed For Area Around Broadway, Wilson, Lawrence
          * Say Farewell To Keith McCormick Today At Fat Cat
          * 46th Ward Budgeting Ideas
          * Thorner: Brady, Andrzejewski address Illinois Forum Luncheon – Part 2
          * Masters of Manufacturing: Wayne Sikorcin and Tim Roth of Craftsman Tool & Mold
          * Black Homosexual Murders Two Whites and Leftists Still Blame Guns
          * Eric Zorn does it again. Talking with the #FightForDyett hunger strikers is negotiating with “hostage takers.”
          * Chicago Tribune: Teacher compensation is a perk.
          * Neither TFA nor edTPA. Becoming a teacher.


          * Governor Announces Appointments
          * State to Issue $16 million in Credits to Reverse Penalties for Monthly Electronic Wage Reporting - Rules provide relief for nearly 13,000 employers over the next six months
          * GOMB Director Issues Statement
          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Governor Rauner Requests SBA Assistance for Grundy, Iroquois Counties - Declaration would help people and businesses affected by summer storms with low-interest, long-term loans to help with recovery




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller