SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Close race

Friday, Mar 31, 2006

JBT has been up and down and back up again in the Rasmussen poll.

Fresh from primary victories, neither the Democratic nominee nor the Republican nominee enjoys a clear advantage in the race for Governor of Illinois.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 43% to 41%. That toss-up represents an apparent tightening of the race. In our late February poll, Blagojevich bested Topinka 42% to 36%. For him, that was an improvement over the January survey, when Topinka led 48% to 37%.

The rolling average of our last three polls confirms the close nature of the race and shows Topinka with a knife-edge 42% to 40% lead. Though the poll numbers seem to gyrate when looked at individually, it’s the challenger’s support that has varied most. The governor’s has ranged much more narrowly, between 37% to 42%—low and not too auspicious for an incumbent.

Both nominees have weathered charges of corruption from within their own parties en route to their nominations. Neither has solidified support within their own party at this time.

Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 44% of likely voters and unfavorably by 53%, with only 2% Not Sure how to view him. Topinka is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 44%.

Blagojevich wins approval for his job performance as governor from only 39% of Illinois voters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove.

Though 45% of Illinois voters believe abortion is morally wrong, just 34% favor a ban on abortion except when the life of the mother is at risk; 55% oppose it. (Such a ban is now being vetted in South Dakota, where it is expected to encounter judicial challenges.)

Sixty-five percent (65%) think most politicians would change their vote for the right contribution. Fifty-three percent (53%) guesstimate that the cost of influencing a governor or senator is $50,000 or less; 7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - Lovie's Leather - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:15 pm:

    Blago is ripe for the pickin’. The question is, can Judy pick ‘im? I sure hope so. With all of Blago’s money, it makes me wonder if he is at the point where his numbers can’t grow any higher without Topinka being a total lunatic. I think the gov has maxed out. I further think Topinka would have a difficult time with an independent that was very socially conservative. These people NEED to step aside and do what is best for the state of Illinois. Drop out and even endorse Blago, it won’t matter. The point is, a two-way race would definately ensure Topinka a victory, however narrow of a margin it may be.


  2. - scoot - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:19 pm:

    59% disagree…I don’t see that number dropping much from now until November. Fresh off the primary victory JBT has to like these numbers. GO JUDY GO!!!!


  3. - Cook Dem - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:

    Yeah, up and down and then up again because this is friggin rasmussen.

    Survey usa is more reliable in this readers humble opinion.

    They had serious outlier problems with bush approval earlier this year and continue to “get it right” by running a multiple polls as often as possible (and close to elections) then cherry picking the best results.

    Close race for sure, but I’ll wait for some other numbers.


  4. - bored now - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:

    i’m one of those people that has never liked rasmussen’s methodology (use of automated dailers). still unproven; be interesting to see what more traditional pollsters come up with…


  5. - Political Hack - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:25 pm:

    Rod better stable his base and do it soon. If Judy starts to peal a few blacks off, he is in trouble. She did it with Rush in the Dart race. My advice to the Blago campaign (and if you are taking advice from a blog, you should be shot), is to shore up the base and do it before Memorial Day.


  6. - gojbt - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:27 pm:

    We can only have wishful thinking that JBT has a chance - I sure hope she does. Anyone but Blago.


  7. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:02 pm:

    The polls are spot on. Last month’s Judy bashing effected her numbers last month, and this month’s primary win gave her the boost for this poll. But as with all polls, this is only a snapshot of yesterday’s situation, with seven months to go.

    Considering the rough month she has had, even with her win, Topinka looks surprisingly strong for so early in the race. Oberweis and the radical GOP elements still haven’t openly supported the Treasurer’s candidacy, so I was expecting a Rasmussen that puts her below Blagojevich at this point. But that’s not the case, is it?

    Blagojevich’s numbers are troubling. He had no competition. He has been hitting the TV, promising free lunches and eternal life. Except for that nasty Nation of Islam problem, he spent the primary playing “governor”, and hiding out. It worked! He should be looking unbeatable - not behind!

    What’s happening? Voters are still not buying the sales pitches with Cheshire cat smiles? He has good ads; as he holds those kids in front of him like hostages, his message is quite clear: Vote for me, or these kids will DIE from NO HEALTH CARE!

    Still these poll numbers are not showing that he has found the right campaign promise yet. I’m sure we’ll hear even more plans to put our money where his mouth is this summer and autumn in the continued quest to find enough suckers to charm a win in November.


  8. - Boone Logan Square - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:11 pm:

    Brace yourselves for a slew of negative ads by RB (plus many more proposed bills that push her to the right of the state on healthcare, guns, education) to get JBT’s approval ratings below 40%. Voters don’t trust Rod, but he will do all he can to get her numbers below his. And he can do a lot.

    This will rile up the Obie/Brady supporters, but Judy needs to shift left to keep from being marginalized by the onslaught to come…and make sure no one defects from her base. If the Republicans do not rally around her for the general election regardless of her positions, she will get swamped. Even with RB’s poor numbers.


  9. - ron - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:12 pm:

    cook dem - rasmussen poll was the most accurate poll in the last presidential election and most accurate for the governor, senate and house races it tracked. believe the numbers or not, an incumbant governor in a democratic lean state with only low 40% support has trouble.


  10. - Wildcat - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:39 pm:

    While I can’t speak to the accuracy of Rasmussen polls, Ron has a good point. Whether you want to argue over methodology or a few points here or there, an incumbent Dem should not have disapproval numbers that high in a state that has had such strong turnout for the Dems the last few years. While it’s far too early to say who is going to win, it’s at least interesting (for now). But as I like to remind my friends who ask me who I think is going to win, Ross Perot was leading the polls as late as June in 1992. Lotta game left.


  11. - taxs man - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:06 pm:

    heres how feel iam glad this state is only taking 3 percent of my pay. under J B T we will be paying as high as 5 percent. dont kid yourself that will be one of the first thing she does if she wins. I pray she doest win. GO ROD GO


  12. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:12 pm:

    Oh, Rod will raise taxes to. He said he wouldn’t before and he did. He will again if voters will re-elect him. Check out what the Democratic governors did in Virginia and New Jersey.


  13. - HoosierDaddy - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 6:36 pm:

    To buy a vote,

    “7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.00″

    ….and Homer believes all that is needed is a donut! Doh!


  14. - Pete Granata - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 9:36 pm:

    Boone Logan Square is dead on. JBT has to appeal to ethnic Democrats and keep Bush and Cheney OUT of Illinois.


  15. - Rich Miller - Sunday, Apr 2, 06 @ 10:49 pm:

    Deleted Anon, I think we got the point the first 50 times you posted that link.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Pollapalooza
* Another day, another $1.5 million
* Justifiable turnabout or pay to play?
* Cook moves Enyart district from "Lean D" to "Toss-up"
* Two important inversion opinions
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * HP takes a stab at smartwatches with round-faced design
        * Pocketnow Insider: this is the phone the editors want right now
        * Oneplus One watch, a waterproof One M8, & signing away your rights to Facebook | Pocketnow Weekly 107 (Hangout)
        * OnePlus rumored to ditch CM, OneWatch plans leaked
        * HTC’s Windows Phone One M8 pops up in certification database?
        * Runtastic Orbit tracks lifestyle 24/7 for a healthier you
        * Comic: Nothing old can stay

        * Seven Important Lessons from World Religions Everyone Should Know
        * Fashion first? Designer Michael Bastian sets his sights on wearable technology
        * Keeping Some Clutter May Be More Valuable For Lower-Income Households
        * MakerBot 3D Printing Specialist Launches MakerBot Europe With Offices In Germany
        * Wunderlist 3 Launches With Real-Time Synchronisation (video)
        * How to Pick (and Manage) Credit Cards for the Best Travel Rewards
        * Deadspin Phillies GM Explains Why Terrible Team Didn't Get Better | Jalopnik Could You Do $11,500 Fo

        * July struggles bury Dayan Viciedo, Gordon Beckham
        * AL Central trade deadline wrapup
        * White Sox 7, Tigers 4: Returning home in one piece
        * Abreu's hit streak reaches 20 with first-inning single
        * Ventura loses replay challenge in ninth inning
        * White Sox take series while Detroit deals
        * Abreu's hit streak reaches 20 with first-inning single


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Group picked by Quinn administration made no lo.....
        * Making Illinois schools safer with new epinephr.....
        * Two more costly losses for public unions - Inve.....
        * Campaigns working to get people to vote early, .....
        * Criminal States - National Review Online..


        * Ex-Bulls player pleads not guilty to sex abuse
        * Chicago high-rise shooting victim remains critical
        * Southern Ill. man gets probation in weapons case
        * 2 men rescued from bucket lift in Illinois
        * Guilty plea in crash that killed 2 motorcyclists
        * Durbin, Kirk push for federal action on Asian carp
        * Demoted worker shoots CEO, kills self in Chicago
        * Jewish judge won't give up case of Arab activist
        * Rauner says he'll be 'champion' for farmers
        * Man accused of putting needles in packaged meat

        * State lawmaker's replacement named
        * Rauner says he'll be 'champion' for state's farmers
        * Quinn: Workers' compensation rate to fall in 2015
        * Quinn signs epinephrine law for Illinois schools
        * Governor candidates differ on overseas tax breaks
        * Quinn: State will 'prevail' in Shakman lawsuit
        * Illinois Medicaid restricts use of hepatitis drug
        * Quinn OKs ballot question on tax hike for incomes over $1M
        * Lawsuit against Quinn back in court in October
        * Illinois to ask voters about taxing millionaires

        * Knock off all 32 Greek tragedies this weekend
        * Emanuel's 2015 budget puts off pension crisis for now
        * Allstate cuts auto rates for first time in six years
        * Chicago biz center aims to foster two-way trade with China
        * Chicago biz center aims to spark two-way trade with China


        * 1 dead, 1 critical in Loop workplace shooting
        * Everything you need to know about Lollapalooza 2014
        * Former co-worker recalls shooter, victim in Loop office tragedy
        * VA manipulated vets’ appointment data in Chicago, elsewhere, audit finds
        * Police questioning person for fatal Edgewater crash involving CTA bus
        * Police chase ends with crash at Great Lakes Naval Station
        * Bicyclist hit by Metra train in Des Plaines dies
        * Old tank cars put Chicago at risk
        * Judge, big supporter of Israel, balks at leaving Palestinian terrorism-related case
        * Father of slain teen fatally shot in Humboldt Park


        * Competency hearing today for girl, 12, in Slenderman stabbing case
        * Man dies in building fire in suburban Cicero
        * The Overnight Beat: Follow reporter Pete Nickeas and photographer Anthony Souffle on the streets of Chicago.
        * Police chase ends with crash at Great Lakes Naval Station
        * Crews struggle to get enough water to fight extra-alarm fire
        * Metra train hits, kills bicyclist on UP Northwest Line
        * Father shot dead 6 days after son slain: 'It hurts so much'
        * Chicago's day of reckoning over pensions delayed
        * Ricketts family to host political fundraiser at Wrigley Field
        * Shootings leave 1 dead, 3 wounded


        * "The Civil War" Becomes A Downtown Musical
        * New Choir Brings A Level Of Expertise
        * Republican Attorney General Candidate: Pension Changes Unconstitutional
        * Some Historic Sites To Curtail Hours Due To Lack Of Money
        * At Historic Sites, Budget Cuts Could Lead To Closures
        * State Fair Manager "Moving Forward" After Ethics Violation
        * Community Prosecutions Credited With Drops In Crime
        * Community prosecutions credited with drop in crime
        * Police responding to shooting in the Loop
        * Demoted worker kills self, wounds CEO in Loop shooting


        * Bernard Schoenburg: Changes coming to Prairie Capital Convention Center board
        * Margaret Niederer: Bruce Rauner is not the change Illinois needs
        * E.J. Dionne: The GOP’s impeachment two-step
        * Esther Cepeda: Giving teachers their voice
        * State lawmaker's replacement named
        * Rauner says he'll be 'champion' for state's farmers
        * Our Opinion: Dangerous pedestrian crossing getting the attention it deserves
        * The GOP as the party of reform
        * John Cooney: Lawsuit abuse is a myth spun by big business
        * Quinn: Workers' compensation rate to fall in 2015


        * More construction coming to Southern Illinois
        * Sheriff: Juveniles who trespassed at former Belleville area school may be charged
        * Quinn to hold bill-signing event in Granite City
        * Nursing home Medicaid backlog remains high
        * 9 days to Camp Rantoul
        * Asmussen's Top 50: No. 9 Baylor
        * Future Illini gear up for season
        * Patchy Midwestern Dryness of Little Concern
        * Durbin slams CN for slowing Amtrak
        * Fred Giertz 8/1/2014


        * U.S. markets fluctuate a day after a major drop
        * U.S. consumer spending up 0.4 percent in June
        * Harley recalls bikes for ignition switch problem
        * U.S. employers add 209K jobs, rate rises to 6.2 pct.
        * Country House restaurant getting new spot in Lisle

        * Taking care of the immigrant children cros...
        * Dem Rep Schakowsky Suggests US Torturing I...
        * 3 politicians try living on minimum wage b...
        * Politicians Give Living on Minimum Wage a ...
        * Malkin's news for Dems: It's 'not an inter...
        * Labor Dept., Dems renewing push to hike mi...
        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Imwit) Dares To #Li...
        * Illinois Congresswoman Takes on Minimum-Wa...
        * Rep. Jan Schakowsky's minimum-wage menu is...
        * 'It's an adventure'! Michelle Malkin and f...

        * Durbin, Kirk & Great Lakes Senators Call F......
        * Durbin, Kirk & Great Lakes Senators Call F......
        * Durbin, Kirk & Great Lakes Senators Call F......
        * Durbin, Kirk Push for Federal Action on As......
        * Durbin, Kirk Push for Federal Action on As......

        * Durbin, Kirk & Great Lakes Senators Call F......
        * Kirk Calls on Secretary McDonald to Stand ......

        * Morning Minute: U.S. pending home sales slow in June, but rise in Midwest
        * In Case You Missed It: Top IARbuzz blog posts for the week
        * Wisconsin Supreme Court Upholds 2011 Union Law
        * U.S. Employers Add 209K Jobs, Unemployment Rate Rises To 6.2%
        * Moore: A Rauner win would be thunderbolt to the political class around the nation
        * Jobs Report: The Status Quo Remains the Same
        * Pension crisis and proposed solutions discussed on Chicago Tonight [video]
        * Di Leo: Tolerance, Freedom, and Hypocrisy in an Age of Confusion
        * The Power of Rational Thinking
        * Task Force To Weigh Chicago Museum Campus Traffic Improvements


        * ICYMI: Federal funds misused in Quinn anti-violence program
        * Rauner Rolls Out Agriculture Coalition and Key Supporters From the Agricultural Community Across Illinois
        * Governor Quinn Signs Law to Expand Health and Wellness Services in Communities Across Illinois - New Steps Will Help Expand Access and Quality of Healthcare
        * Pat Quinn: Patronage Will Prevail
        * Governor Quinn and Company Officials Open Nippon Sharyo Expansion in Rochelle - Passenger Rail Car Manufacturing Plant Expansion Creating 90 New Jobs




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller