SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Close race

Friday, Mar 31, 2006

JBT has been up and down and back up again in the Rasmussen poll.

Fresh from primary victories, neither the Democratic nominee nor the Republican nominee enjoys a clear advantage in the race for Governor of Illinois.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 43% to 41%. That toss-up represents an apparent tightening of the race. In our late February poll, Blagojevich bested Topinka 42% to 36%. For him, that was an improvement over the January survey, when Topinka led 48% to 37%.

The rolling average of our last three polls confirms the close nature of the race and shows Topinka with a knife-edge 42% to 40% lead. Though the poll numbers seem to gyrate when looked at individually, it’s the challenger’s support that has varied most. The governor’s has ranged much more narrowly, between 37% to 42%—low and not too auspicious for an incumbent.

Both nominees have weathered charges of corruption from within their own parties en route to their nominations. Neither has solidified support within their own party at this time.

Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 44% of likely voters and unfavorably by 53%, with only 2% Not Sure how to view him. Topinka is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 44%.

Blagojevich wins approval for his job performance as governor from only 39% of Illinois voters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove.

Though 45% of Illinois voters believe abortion is morally wrong, just 34% favor a ban on abortion except when the life of the mother is at risk; 55% oppose it. (Such a ban is now being vetted in South Dakota, where it is expected to encounter judicial challenges.)

Sixty-five percent (65%) think most politicians would change their vote for the right contribution. Fifty-three percent (53%) guesstimate that the cost of influencing a governor or senator is $50,000 or less; 7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - Lovie's Leather - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:15 pm:

    Blago is ripe for the pickin’. The question is, can Judy pick ‘im? I sure hope so. With all of Blago’s money, it makes me wonder if he is at the point where his numbers can’t grow any higher without Topinka being a total lunatic. I think the gov has maxed out. I further think Topinka would have a difficult time with an independent that was very socially conservative. These people NEED to step aside and do what is best for the state of Illinois. Drop out and even endorse Blago, it won’t matter. The point is, a two-way race would definately ensure Topinka a victory, however narrow of a margin it may be.


  2. - scoot - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:19 pm:

    59% disagree…I don’t see that number dropping much from now until November. Fresh off the primary victory JBT has to like these numbers. GO JUDY GO!!!!


  3. - Cook Dem - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:

    Yeah, up and down and then up again because this is friggin rasmussen.

    Survey usa is more reliable in this readers humble opinion.

    They had serious outlier problems with bush approval earlier this year and continue to “get it right” by running a multiple polls as often as possible (and close to elections) then cherry picking the best results.

    Close race for sure, but I’ll wait for some other numbers.


  4. - bored now - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:

    i’m one of those people that has never liked rasmussen’s methodology (use of automated dailers). still unproven; be interesting to see what more traditional pollsters come up with…


  5. - Political Hack - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:25 pm:

    Rod better stable his base and do it soon. If Judy starts to peal a few blacks off, he is in trouble. She did it with Rush in the Dart race. My advice to the Blago campaign (and if you are taking advice from a blog, you should be shot), is to shore up the base and do it before Memorial Day.


  6. - gojbt - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:27 pm:

    We can only have wishful thinking that JBT has a chance - I sure hope she does. Anyone but Blago.


  7. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:02 pm:

    The polls are spot on. Last month’s Judy bashing effected her numbers last month, and this month’s primary win gave her the boost for this poll. But as with all polls, this is only a snapshot of yesterday’s situation, with seven months to go.

    Considering the rough month she has had, even with her win, Topinka looks surprisingly strong for so early in the race. Oberweis and the radical GOP elements still haven’t openly supported the Treasurer’s candidacy, so I was expecting a Rasmussen that puts her below Blagojevich at this point. But that’s not the case, is it?

    Blagojevich’s numbers are troubling. He had no competition. He has been hitting the TV, promising free lunches and eternal life. Except for that nasty Nation of Islam problem, he spent the primary playing “governor”, and hiding out. It worked! He should be looking unbeatable - not behind!

    What’s happening? Voters are still not buying the sales pitches with Cheshire cat smiles? He has good ads; as he holds those kids in front of him like hostages, his message is quite clear: Vote for me, or these kids will DIE from NO HEALTH CARE!

    Still these poll numbers are not showing that he has found the right campaign promise yet. I’m sure we’ll hear even more plans to put our money where his mouth is this summer and autumn in the continued quest to find enough suckers to charm a win in November.


  8. - Boone Logan Square - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:11 pm:

    Brace yourselves for a slew of negative ads by RB (plus many more proposed bills that push her to the right of the state on healthcare, guns, education) to get JBT’s approval ratings below 40%. Voters don’t trust Rod, but he will do all he can to get her numbers below his. And he can do a lot.

    This will rile up the Obie/Brady supporters, but Judy needs to shift left to keep from being marginalized by the onslaught to come…and make sure no one defects from her base. If the Republicans do not rally around her for the general election regardless of her positions, she will get swamped. Even with RB’s poor numbers.


  9. - ron - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:12 pm:

    cook dem - rasmussen poll was the most accurate poll in the last presidential election and most accurate for the governor, senate and house races it tracked. believe the numbers or not, an incumbant governor in a democratic lean state with only low 40% support has trouble.


  10. - Wildcat - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:39 pm:

    While I can’t speak to the accuracy of Rasmussen polls, Ron has a good point. Whether you want to argue over methodology or a few points here or there, an incumbent Dem should not have disapproval numbers that high in a state that has had such strong turnout for the Dems the last few years. While it’s far too early to say who is going to win, it’s at least interesting (for now). But as I like to remind my friends who ask me who I think is going to win, Ross Perot was leading the polls as late as June in 1992. Lotta game left.


  11. - taxs man - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:06 pm:

    heres how feel iam glad this state is only taking 3 percent of my pay. under J B T we will be paying as high as 5 percent. dont kid yourself that will be one of the first thing she does if she wins. I pray she doest win. GO ROD GO


  12. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:12 pm:

    Oh, Rod will raise taxes to. He said he wouldn’t before and he did. He will again if voters will re-elect him. Check out what the Democratic governors did in Virginia and New Jersey.


  13. - HoosierDaddy - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 6:36 pm:

    To buy a vote,

    “7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.00″

    ….and Homer believes all that is needed is a donut! Doh!


  14. - Pete Granata - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 9:36 pm:

    Boone Logan Square is dead on. JBT has to appeal to ethnic Democrats and keep Bush and Cheney OUT of Illinois.


  15. - Rich Miller - Sunday, Apr 2, 06 @ 10:49 pm:

    Deleted Anon, I think we got the point the first 50 times you posted that link.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Monday
* TrackBill update
* Caption contest!
* It's worse than we thought
* Question of the day
* Long-term debt is not short-term debt
* Today's quotable
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * ThanksGiveaway at the Pocketnow Deals Store: Enter to win some awesome prizes
        * Apple's Black Friday offer: iTunes Store gift cards with purchase, to benefit (RED)
        * Zombiens invade Rooster Teeth in new action/stratey game
        * Amazon marks down Nexus 9, Chromecast, and more apps
        * Twitter app tracking, OnePlus Store, Gear VR 2 & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Twitter to use smartphone apps info to improve your profile
        * Apple Watch website provides more details on its functionality

        * Stock Up on iTunes Credit for 25% Off
        * Deck the Graves: Zombie Christmas Ornaments
        * Looks Good, Tastes Worse: Gravy-Flavored Candy Canes
        * Like Owner, Like Pup: Matching Sweaters for You and Your Pooch
        * Hadouken This: Ugly ‘Street Fighter’ Christmas Sweater
        * Ho Ho Ho, Dinner is Served: Santa’s Glove Oven Mitt
        * Lenovo Black Friday Deals

        * Catching up with Tadahito Iguchi
        * White Sox ACE program helps send players to college
        * Additional 2005 fan-favorite players added to '15 SoxFest
        * White Sox introduce Adam LaRoche and their plans for him
        * White Sox plan for contention a work in progress
        * White Sox officially announce LaRoche deal
        * Red Sox seize offseason driver's seat with signings

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Rauner says own money will go toward executive .....
        * Will Rauner want the mansion?..
        * Hot meals provided to homeless across Chicago area..


        * Against odds, Chicago school aims for championship
        * Woman's body found near Whiteside county jail
        * Against odds, Chicago school aims for championship
        * Liver transplant recipient marks 25th anniversary
        * Woman's body found near Whiteside county jail
        * VSU chief financial officer to leave for new job
        * Collinsville man guilty of murder in fatal wreck
        * 3 arrested in Chicago during Ferguson protest
        * Clemency for man wrongfully jailed for 1991 murder
        * Illinois doctor fined over medical marijuana slip

        * Illinois attorney general files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Quinn grants clemency to 126 ahead of holiday
        * Illinois gives $4.5M food banks for modernization
        * State begins accepting fracking applications
        * Debt rating agencies weigh in on state pension ruling
        * Lisa Madigan to ask Illinois Supreme Court to consider pensions
        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money

        * Most BP oil spill claims handled correctly, McGladrey says
        * Illinois AG Madigan files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Congressmen sound alarm over anti-Asian Carp move
        * Motorola Mobility loses bid to extend antitrust law reach
        * Chicago business activity is growing—but at a slower pace


        * ||| Jack Higgins’ perspective
        * Educators up in arms over Rauner's question on budget cuts
        * Gutierrez: Obama's immigration delay cost Pat Quinn votes
        * How Illinois can charge  ahead on education
        * Thanksgiving parade draws thousands to State Street
        * Former alderman, North Lawndale activist Jesse Miller dies at 72
        * Rauners don hairnets, serve Thanksgiving to homeless
        * Rauners don hairnets, serve Thanksgiving meals to homeless
        * Norman Schoer, viola player with Grant Park Orchestra and Lyric Opera, dies at 103
        * Cupich: Work needed to ‘repair our broken immigration system’


        * 4 injured in separate Thanksgiving Day shootings
        * Crash-and-grab burglary in Austin
        * Boat service provider negligent in fatal accident, lawsuit alleges
        * Cupich celebrates Thanksgiving Mass, prays with the poor
        * Archbishop Cupich emphasizes spiritual blessings at Lake Forest Thanksgiving mass
        * Judge reassigned after failing to follow contempt rules, officials say
        * Pre-Thanksgiving revelers in Naperville unfazed by new alcohol rules
        * Woman shot dead in apparent domestic-related shooting in Gary
        * Ferguson protester in Chicago charged with felony
        * Thanksgiving Day Parade kicks off at Congress and State


        * LLCC Offers Variety Of Community Education Classes
        * Incoming U of I President Speaks To Springfield Audience
        * Another Year Of "Messiah" For Springfield Choral Society
        * New Exhibit On Lincoln's "Undying Words"
        * Locals Organize For Vigil In Response To Ferguson
        * Illinois Hunters Kill 52,000 Deer Over The Weekend
        * Pension Ruling "Credit Negative," But No Ratings Change
        * Tim Landis: Foreclosure Sales, CIPS Icehouse and Heritage River Trail
        * Part Timers & Manufacturing in Illinois Feeling a Slow Economic Recovery
        * Notes From Ferguson: A QA With St. Louis Public Radio's Rachel Lippmann


        * Michael Carrigan: Illinois can’t afford another year without a raise
        * Esther Cepeda: How to really enjoy the holidays
        * E.J. Dionne: Thank a politician today
        * Our Opinion: Help combat hunger this holiday season
        * Eugene Robinson: On replacement, caution urged
        * George Will: Thanks, or something
        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 27, 2014
        * Illinois attorney general files notice of appeal in pension case
        * Quinn grants clemency to 126 ahead of holiday
        * Illinois gives $4.5M food banks for modernization


        * Area residents enjoy fellowship, meal on Thanksgiving
        * SIU producing sought-after automotive talent
        * Staying home is a treasured Black Friday tradition
        * Goodfellow Fund 11/28/14
        * BND wants to hear your opinion on Madison County school consolidation
        * IHSA's Hickman: 'They're all going to be a bunch of fun'
        * Asmussen: Welcome back to C-U, football contenders
        * Champaign Central loses controversial heartbreaker
        * Big Ten football roundup: Illinois vs. N'western for all the marbles
        * MBB notebook: Orange and blue travels well


        * Seahawks stomp 49ers
        * Aurora man charged with attempted murder
        * Full holiday menu for Obamas, plus 6 pies
        * Cathedral may become museum to the slave trade
        * Novelist PD James dies at age 94

        * Rep. Adam Kinzinger Joins Eyewitness News ...
        * Rep. Davis: Keep coal in energy plan
        * Over 95 percent of ANCA-endorsed candidate...
        * Mr. Bost goes to Washington: ‘This is wher...
        * Medicare Open Enrollment - Newton Press Me...
        * Mike Frerichs pulls off slim win in Illino...
        * Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger return to C...
        * Hiring More Vets In Congress
        * Durbin wins 4th term; GOP seeks more House...
        * Welcome to Washington: Murphysboro’s Bost ...

        * Durbin Celebrates Obama’s Announcement at ......

        * Iran's Supreme Leader supports extending t......
        * Chicago Tribuen: Squeeze a stalling Iran t......

        * What do we think about Obama’s efforts to force-feed immigration reform to infant-minded in our nation?
        * "Nigerian Kitchen" Closes On Wilson
        * #HappyThanksgiving from The Sixth Ward blog!
        * In Chicago the race is on. It’s easy as ABC.
        * Lisa Madigan files her appeal.
        * The Better Government Association continues to spread the lie about public employee pensions.
        * Happy Thanksgiving. “My idea,” says Rahm.
        * Chicago parents demand answers from Emanuel after sex ed lessons revealed
        * Happy Thanksgiving
        * We're Grateful To Live In Uptown, And For You


        * Governor Quinn Announces Investment to Help Regional Food Banks Better Serve Those in Need - Governor’s Investment Will Ensure Lower Cost and Higher Efficiency for Services Reaching Nearly 2 Million Illinois Residents
        * Governor Pat Quinn Takes Clemency Action
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Abner Mikva Receiving Nation’s Highest Civilian Honor
        * Department of Insurance Announces Multi-State Settlement with Symetra Life Insurance and Symetra National Life Insurance Company - Illinois will share part of a $1.2 million penalty against Symetra Life regarding Life Insurance policies
        * Avoid Foodborne Illness This Holiday Season




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller