SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Close race

Friday, Mar 31, 2006

JBT has been up and down and back up again in the Rasmussen poll.

Fresh from primary victories, neither the Democratic nominee nor the Republican nominee enjoys a clear advantage in the race for Governor of Illinois.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 43% to 41%. That toss-up represents an apparent tightening of the race. In our late February poll, Blagojevich bested Topinka 42% to 36%. For him, that was an improvement over the January survey, when Topinka led 48% to 37%.

The rolling average of our last three polls confirms the close nature of the race and shows Topinka with a knife-edge 42% to 40% lead. Though the poll numbers seem to gyrate when looked at individually, it’s the challenger’s support that has varied most. The governor’s has ranged much more narrowly, between 37% to 42%—low and not too auspicious for an incumbent.

Both nominees have weathered charges of corruption from within their own parties en route to their nominations. Neither has solidified support within their own party at this time.

Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 44% of likely voters and unfavorably by 53%, with only 2% Not Sure how to view him. Topinka is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 44%.

Blagojevich wins approval for his job performance as governor from only 39% of Illinois voters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove.

Though 45% of Illinois voters believe abortion is morally wrong, just 34% favor a ban on abortion except when the life of the mother is at risk; 55% oppose it. (Such a ban is now being vetted in South Dakota, where it is expected to encounter judicial challenges.)

Sixty-five percent (65%) think most politicians would change their vote for the right contribution. Fifty-three percent (53%) guesstimate that the cost of influencing a governor or senator is $50,000 or less; 7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


15 Comments
  1. - Lovie's Leather - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:15 pm:

    Blago is ripe for the pickin’. The question is, can Judy pick ‘im? I sure hope so. With all of Blago’s money, it makes me wonder if he is at the point where his numbers can’t grow any higher without Topinka being a total lunatic. I think the gov has maxed out. I further think Topinka would have a difficult time with an independent that was very socially conservative. These people NEED to step aside and do what is best for the state of Illinois. Drop out and even endorse Blago, it won’t matter. The point is, a two-way race would definately ensure Topinka a victory, however narrow of a margin it may be.


  2. - scoot - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:19 pm:

    59% disagree…I don’t see that number dropping much from now until November. Fresh off the primary victory JBT has to like these numbers. GO JUDY GO!!!!


  3. - Cook Dem - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:

    Yeah, up and down and then up again because this is friggin rasmussen.

    Survey usa is more reliable in this readers humble opinion.

    They had serious outlier problems with bush approval earlier this year and continue to “get it right” by running a multiple polls as often as possible (and close to elections) then cherry picking the best results.

    Close race for sure, but I’ll wait for some other numbers.


  4. - bored now - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:

    i’m one of those people that has never liked rasmussen’s methodology (use of automated dailers). still unproven; be interesting to see what more traditional pollsters come up with…


  5. - Political Hack - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:25 pm:

    Rod better stable his base and do it soon. If Judy starts to peal a few blacks off, he is in trouble. She did it with Rush in the Dart race. My advice to the Blago campaign (and if you are taking advice from a blog, you should be shot), is to shore up the base and do it before Memorial Day.


  6. - gojbt - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:27 pm:

    We can only have wishful thinking that JBT has a chance - I sure hope she does. Anyone but Blago.


  7. - VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:02 pm:

    The polls are spot on. Last month’s Judy bashing effected her numbers last month, and this month’s primary win gave her the boost for this poll. But as with all polls, this is only a snapshot of yesterday’s situation, with seven months to go.

    Considering the rough month she has had, even with her win, Topinka looks surprisingly strong for so early in the race. Oberweis and the radical GOP elements still haven’t openly supported the Treasurer’s candidacy, so I was expecting a Rasmussen that puts her below Blagojevich at this point. But that’s not the case, is it?

    Blagojevich’s numbers are troubling. He had no competition. He has been hitting the TV, promising free lunches and eternal life. Except for that nasty Nation of Islam problem, he spent the primary playing “governor”, and hiding out. It worked! He should be looking unbeatable - not behind!

    What’s happening? Voters are still not buying the sales pitches with Cheshire cat smiles? He has good ads; as he holds those kids in front of him like hostages, his message is quite clear: Vote for me, or these kids will DIE from NO HEALTH CARE!

    Still these poll numbers are not showing that he has found the right campaign promise yet. I’m sure we’ll hear even more plans to put our money where his mouth is this summer and autumn in the continued quest to find enough suckers to charm a win in November.


  8. - Boone Logan Square - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:11 pm:

    Brace yourselves for a slew of negative ads by RB (plus many more proposed bills that push her to the right of the state on healthcare, guns, education) to get JBT’s approval ratings below 40%. Voters don’t trust Rod, but he will do all he can to get her numbers below his. And he can do a lot.

    This will rile up the Obie/Brady supporters, but Judy needs to shift left to keep from being marginalized by the onslaught to come…and make sure no one defects from her base. If the Republicans do not rally around her for the general election regardless of her positions, she will get swamped. Even with RB’s poor numbers.


  9. - ron - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:12 pm:

    cook dem - rasmussen poll was the most accurate poll in the last presidential election and most accurate for the governor, senate and house races it tracked. believe the numbers or not, an incumbant governor in a democratic lean state with only low 40% support has trouble.


  10. - Wildcat - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:39 pm:

    While I can’t speak to the accuracy of Rasmussen polls, Ron has a good point. Whether you want to argue over methodology or a few points here or there, an incumbent Dem should not have disapproval numbers that high in a state that has had such strong turnout for the Dems the last few years. While it’s far too early to say who is going to win, it’s at least interesting (for now). But as I like to remind my friends who ask me who I think is going to win, Ross Perot was leading the polls as late as June in 1992. Lotta game left.


  11. - taxs man - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:06 pm:

    heres how feel iam glad this state is only taking 3 percent of my pay. under J B T we will be paying as high as 5 percent. dont kid yourself that will be one of the first thing she does if she wins. I pray she doest win. GO ROD GO


  12. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:12 pm:

    Oh, Rod will raise taxes to. He said he wouldn’t before and he did. He will again if voters will re-elect him. Check out what the Democratic governors did in Virginia and New Jersey.


  13. - HoosierDaddy - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 6:36 pm:

    To buy a vote,

    “7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.00″

    ….and Homer believes all that is needed is a donut! Doh!


  14. - Pete Granata - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 9:36 pm:

    Boone Logan Square is dead on. JBT has to appeal to ethnic Democrats and keep Bush and Cheney OUT of Illinois.


  15. - Rich Miller - Sunday, Apr 2, 06 @ 10:49 pm:

    Deleted Anon, I think we got the point the first 50 times you posted that link.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Today's number: 89 percent
* Today's video: Rauner victory lap
* Ask a silly question...
* Blagojevich arrested eight years ago today
* Pritzker, Lisa Madigan added to enemies list
* Rauner loves him some DeVos
* Good news for Mitsubishi plant?
* Cullerton to Rauner: Cut a deal with AFSCME before pension reform
* The finger-pointing continues
* Sneed: Madigan "disappointed" in Kennedy's fundraising this year
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Prepare to buy the Huawei Mate 9 on January 6 in the U.S.
* Fitbit CEO drops some details on the Pebble acquisition
* Blass: Huawei Mate 9 sales in US to begin January 6
* Weekend fun: Readers, help us out here
* SoundCloud takeover by Spotify is dead in the water
* U.S. carriers respond to Samsung’s kill switch for the Galaxy Note 7
* HTC 10 Revisited: Now with Android 7.0 Nougat

* Following up: Mr. Eaton’s drama goes to Washington
* Abreu thrilled for reunion with Moncada
* Giolito excited to join White Sox talent haul
* Winter meetings transformative for White Sox
* White Sox steal show at Winter Meetings
* Adam Eaton delivered despite doubters
* A tale of two Sox at Winter Meetings

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Statehouse Insider: The ball's in your court. N.....
* Quincy University cuts 14 jobs as it faces $5M .....
* Statehouse Insider: The ball’s in your court. N.....
* Is the governor preparing to push vouchers?..
* Who’s managing (and profiting from) trillions o.....
* Now that U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin has decided to s.....
* Energy bill deal saves two Exelon plants - Roch.....
* Illinois Stopgap Funding Is Running Out. Is Lon.....


* Quincy University cuts 14 jobs as it faces $5M budget hole
* East St. Louis official resigns after corruption guilty plea
* Report: Illinois Lottery didn't pay major scratch-off wins
* Authorities: 1 dead in small plane crash in Illinois
* Northern Illinois braces for up to 12 inches of snow
* U of Illinois inks 10-year deal to buy energy from wind farm
* U of Illinois inks 10-year deal to buy energy from wind farm
* Report: Illinois Lottery didn't pay major scratch-off wins
* 3 dead, 1 critically injured in Belleville 2-vehicle crash
* Bridge connecting Indiana, Illinois reopens 4 months early

* Anti-abortion medical providers argue against Illinois law
* $3M in emergency funds headed to Illinois community colleges
* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, cancels meeting
* Comptroller: State employee bonuses on hold during impasse
* Rauner signs Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Rauner to sign Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Judge blocks administration from imposing contract on AFSCME
* State budget still elusive as leaders lash out
* Illinois budget still elusive as leaders lash out

* No warranty on Allstate's billion-dollar acquisition of SquareTrade
* Airbnb is banned from more and more Chicago condo buildings
* Public pensions have a ton of leverage. They should use it.
* How outmoded technology is clipping United's wings
* What if Trump tweets at your company next?


* Police: Teen driving stolen vehicle killed in West Side crash
* IRS, other agencies warn of identity theft during holidays
* Woman shot in Humboldt Park
* Elderly man missing from Kenwood
* Cristiano Felicio winning battle for time over Bobby Portis
* Trump’s team pushes back against Russia hacking reports
* Pilot dead after small plane crashes in Marengo
* THE WATCHDOGS: Rahm’s police hiring will barely make up for drop
* Chicago actor Audrey Morgan, seen on TV and stage, dead at 64
* Inside the Huddle: CB Deiondre’ Hall missing piece of good draft


* Widow of man slain in Aurora one year ago: 'We need to find these killers'
* Twins minor league pitcher Yorman Landa, 22, dies in Venezuela
* 2 explosions heard near Istanbul soccer stadium; 20 wounded
* Officials: One killed in single-engine plane crash in Marengo
* Man accused of firing gun at police collapses during bond hearing
* Trump at Army-Navy game to salute armed forces
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 12/10/16
* 'Nightmare' superbug cases rise in Illinois health-care facilities
* Stanford band temporarily suspended through next spring
* Warehouse fire survivor: People 'dying right in front of me'


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Charles Krauthammer: Tweets and theater entertain, but Congress is the main event
* Brent Bohlen: All are precious
* Anti-abortion medical providers argue against Illinois law
* Our View: Thumbs Up/Thumbs Down for the week
* $3M in emergency funds headed to Illinois community colleges
* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Bernard Schoenburg: Bustos gets leadership post, criticizes Rauner
* Our View: Lawmakers should withdraw their lawsuit over paychecks
* George Will: The sensitivity police strike again
* Eugene Robinson: The proliferation of fake news presents real perils


* LIVE! Central Michigan
* Snowstar slides into new season
* Ferrari strikes building after crash
* Franklin Park fire displaces college students
* Impact giving: Where good intentions meet evidence
* Charity and homework
* PODCAST: Saturday SportsTalk 12-10-16
* Bickford buys back real estate; no impact on operations
* Daily Digest: Reindeer ornaments offered at zoo
* PODCAST: The Roofing Dog 12-10-16


* Schenn's hat trick leads Flyers to 8th straight win
* Transfers hoping to leave their mark in women's basketball
* Stick, N Dakota St beat S Dakota St in FCS quarterfinals
* Twins minor league pitcher Yorman Landa dies in Venezuela
* Defense leads UW-Oshkosh to 10-3 win over John Carroll

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Greg Hinz on Politics Look who wants to be......
* Sens. Durbin and Graham introduce bill to ......

* Sen. Mark Kirk Cheers Illinoisans, Cubs Du......

* No sanctuary for undocumented students at the University of Illinois.
* Holiday Pop-Up Market Saturday, 3pm-9pm
* D.C. map.
* Shedd School as seen in December
* Looking for more ‘REALTORS® Give Back’ stories
* Breaking. Judge orders TRO against Rauner and for state workers.
* Keeping retirement weird. My mother never asked permission to protest.
* Just over 80 days away ‘til Election Day (already?!?), at least for some of us
* TASC Offers Roll Call Videos for Law Enforcement: The Science of Addiction, Building Partnership with Treatment
* Chicago aldermen snub Trump for spotlighting city's violence


* Criminal justice, health services stakeholders convene for Data-Driven Health & Justice Conference - Event will emphasize innovative strategies to address “superutilizers” of emergency departments and jails
* Know Before You Go with IDOT'SWinter Road Conditions Map
* Governor’s Export Awards Recipients Announced
* Governor Signs Legislation to Protect Jobs, Ratepayers and Taxpayers
* Give The Gift Of A Lifetime With A College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Plan - College Illinois! can help limit or even eliminate future student loan debt




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller