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More from that Fox/AP analysis

Thursday, Nov 8, 2018

* Let’s return to the Fox News/AP Illinois election analysis. Here are most of the responses which had at least 779 respondents (some were much lower)

* Trump job approval

    Approve 40%
    Approve strongly 23%

    Disapprove 60%
    Disapprove strongly 49%

* Direction of the country

    Right direction 34%
    Wrong direction 66%

* Impact of Trump admin’s trade policies on national economy

    Help 32%
    Hurt 55%
    No difference 12%

* Impact of Trump admin’s trade policies on local economy

    Help 26%
    Hurt 48%
    No difference 26%

* Views of the Affordable Care Act

    Repeal the law entirely 17%
    Repeal parts of the law 25%
    Leave the law as is 17%
    Expand the law 41%

* Immigration policy - immigrants living in the U.S. illegally

    Offered a chance to apply for legal status 68%
    Deported to the country they came from 31%

* Do you think the way Democrats talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in acts of violence, or don’t you think so?

    Yes, it is 42%
    No, it is not 57%

* Do you think the way Republican talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in acts of violence, or don’t you think so?

    Yes, it is 62%
    No, it is not 38%

* Do you think the way Democrats/Republicans talk about politics these days is leading to an increase in acts of violence, or don’t you think so?

    Yes, both 20%
    Democrats but not Republicans 23%
    Republicans but not Democrats 42%
    No, neither 16%

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller   16 Comments      


Non-college whites, white men, independent women, evangelicals and seniors were Rauner’s constituencies

Thursday, Nov 8, 2018

* From Fox News

Fox News has launched an improved approach for analyzing Americans’ priorities and vote preferences on Election Day. The Fox News Voter Analysis combines survey data from NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. As more people vote early or by mail, the new method overcomes the limitations of in-person exit polls and captures the views of all Americans by integrating probability-based, state-by-state surveys with a massive online poll.

Full methodology is here.

* According to this analysis, JB Pritzker defeated Gov. Rauner among men 48-45, among women 59-33 and scored in the high 50s in all age groups except 65+, which Rauner won 50-40.

Rauner won white men 55-37, but Pritzker won white women 49-43. Pritzker won among African-Americans 91-6 and among Latinx 69-23.

Pritzker won all of the broad education categories, but Rauner won among whites who aren’t college educated 50-39. The two split college-educated whites 47-47.

Eight percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Republican women (you will recall they were targeted heavily by the Conservative Party) went for Sam McCann, and Rauner took 83 percent of GOP voters. Pritzker won 90 percent of Democratic voters.

According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.

Pritzker won moderates 52-39, while Sam McCann took 11 percent of conservatives to Rauner’s 73 percent.

Rauner won white evangelical/born again Christians 61-35 with no recorded support for McCann (very small sample size there, though).

Of those who voted to express support for President Trump, McCann took 9 percent to Rauner’s 78.

We’ll get to other results in a bit.

- Posted by Rich Miller   67 Comments      


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