* Polling memo…
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: January 16, 2019
RE: NEW POLL RESULTS: Susana Mendoza solidifies likely run-off win in race for Mayor of Chicago
Recent poll results clearly point to Susana Mendoza as a frontrunner in the crowded field for Mayor. Toni Preckwinkle has seen a significant dip in favorability and a clear drop in vote share, while Bill Daley has failed to move his vote share in both the multi-candidate and head-to-head ballots. Given Mendoza’s name ID advantage, top vote-getting status in a multi-candidate race, and significant lead in run-off scenarios with either Preckwinkle or Daley, Mendoza continues to be well-positioned to become the next Mayor of Chicago.
Key findings from a recent citywide survey of 600 likely 2019 municipal voters conducted by Global Strategy Group are as follows.
• Voters’ opinions of Preckwinkle have taken a negative turn. Since December, Preckwinkle’s net favorability has dropped 26 points. Once +16 (December 2018: 47% favorable/31% unfavorable, 78% familiar), she is now underwater at -10 (January 2019: 36% fav/46% unfav, 82% fam).
• Preckwinkle’s support has dwindled along with her favorability. In December, Preckwinkle held the lead in the multi-candidate race with 19% of the vote, with Mendoza in second with 11%. But Preckwinkle has lost her edge and is now tied with Mendoza for the top spot at 11%. Daley remains in third place with 9%, seeing little change in his vote share since December (Dec. 2018: Daley 8%), despite a significant investment in advertising. The remaining eight candidates trail him.
• Mendoza surges past Preckwinkle in a head-to-head. In a run-off scenario, Mendoza leads Preckwinkle by 13 points (Jan. 2019: Mendoza 43%/Preckwinkle 30%), significantly increasing her slight December lead (Dec. 2018: Mendoza 39%/Preckwinkle 38%).
• Mendoza continues to top Daley. Daley’s multi-candidate margin has yet to improve since December, and he has been unable to gain any ground against Mendoza in a head-to-head. Mendoza’s December lead (Dec. 2018: Mendoza 46%/Daley 31%) is virtually unchanged (Jan 2018: Mendoza 45%/Daley 30%).
So, it’s not that Mendoza has boosted her own first round numbers, it’s that Preckwinkle appears to be dropping like a rock.
Global Strategy Group conducted two citywide surveys between December 10th and December 13th, 2018 and between January 11th and January 15th, 2019 among 600 likely 2019 Chicago Municipal Election voters. Both surveys have a margin of error of +/-4.0%. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented in both polls based on past voter turnout statistics.
54 percent of respondents were reached via their mobile phones.
The headline is a bit of a joke, but, to be clear, this is a well-respected firm. Global Strategy Group has been used by JB Pritzker, Planned Parenthood Illinois Action PAC, Nancy Rotering, Anita Alvarez, Pat Quinn and Rahm Emanuel, among others. Pritzker paid the firm a whopping $2.9 million since getting into the race, so they must have something going for them.