* US News & World Report…
Below, we’ll provide a look at the remaining 24 states, which we consider “not currently vulnerable.” Obviously, we are still early in the election cycle, so states could shift higher or lower in our vulnerability ratings as time goes on. […]
We have been handicapping the gubernatorial races every cycle since 2006. Our analysis is based on reporting with dozens of political observers in the states as well as a look at historical, demographic, and polling data. We’ve included the gubernatorial races below in alphabetical order. […]
Illinois: Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D)
Pritzker, a deep-pocketed heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, has had what observers consider a generally successful term in this increasingly blue state. He received good marks for his handling of the pandemic and has enacted budgets that have kept the state’s fiscal situation more stable than it has been in recent years. He’s also kept his progressive flank happy by enacting a minimum wage hike to $15; a law that would continue allowing abortion if the U.S. Supreme Court were to overturn Roe v. Wade; a law to strengthen guardianship protections for immigrant children; and a marijuana legalization measure. This means that Pritzker has little to worry about from a primary, especially since any challenger would need to raise a ton of money to compete against him.
Meanwhile, a few Republicans have announced or expressed interest in the race, but they are largely aligned with Trump and back socially conservative policies, both of which amount to non-starters in Illinois these days. Any center-right Republican hoping to make it a race against Pritzker would not only need to self-fund and win a Trump-era GOP primary but would also face the daunting prospect, if elected, of working with a Democratic supermajority in the legislature. All in all, Pritzker should be able to secure a second term if he wants it.
I don’t agree that a Republican nominee will have to self-fund if Ken Griffin jumps in all the way. I suppose we’ll see.