Brian Gaines, a political science professor at the University of Illinois, made a prediction just after the 2018 elections: If the local congressman, Rep. Rodney Davis, could survive that year’s Democratic wave, then the Republican would be safe through 2020.
Now Gaines has lost confidence in his prognosis.
“I still think that’s true, but I’m a little more inclined to think he could lose this election,” said Gaines, a professor at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the university, who recently ventured out of Urbana-Champaign and into the district’s more rural parts.
“I was surprised how few Trump signs I saw,” he said.
Lobbyist-turned-politician Betsy Dirksen Londrigan used to raise money for Mike Madigan and his cronies.
Now, they’re bankrolling her campaign to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Today the NRCC launched a new ad in IL-13 reminding folks Betsy and Springfield corruption go hand in hand.
* My own prediction: If Congressman Davis holds on this year, it’ll be at least partially because of the late “Madigan” attacks on Dirksen Londrigan that have become ubiquitous in the district’s media markets. This race will show us which is more powerful: Significant Trump headwinds (as defined by actual data and bolstered by the Democrats’ healthcare argument) or the Illinois House Speaker, who polls worse than Trump but isn’t running the national government.
Forget about 2018, forget about non-existent yard signs that don’t vote anyway. Focus on what’s happening in the here and now.