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It’s awful early for this, but here you go

Friday, Oct 25, 2019

* Betsy Londrigan campaign press release…

Today, The Cook Political Report announced their ratings change of Betsy’s race in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District from Lean Republican to Toss Up. In their write up of the report, Cook cited Betsy’s record of strong fundraising and multiple recent missteps by incumbent Republican Rodney Davis.

This ratings change reflects the continuing momentum behind Betsy’s candidacy. Betsy has received endorsements from EMILY’s List, End Citizens United, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, JStreet PAC, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the United Food and Commercial Workers, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, the Illinois Democratic County Chairs Association, and many other local and national organizations.

Cook Political Report IL-13 Write Up:

    Londrigan impressed Democratic strategists by coming within 2,058 votes (less than one point) of knocking off GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in 2018. The race wasn’t initially in Democrats’ top tier of targets but the professional non-profit fundraiser raised $4.2 million and outspent the self-styled moderate incumbent. She barely stopped running and had $721,000 in the bank to the incumbent’s $905,000 at the end of September.

    Londrigan comes across more crisply and seasoned than she did as a first-time candidate in 2018. She partially blames her narrow loss on unexpectedly long lines to vote at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign she says were caused by a GOP election administrator who has since left office. Driving out a large student vote in this college-heavy district is the key to Londrigan’s chances in 2020.

    This race is already engaged: Democrats are hammering Davis for accepting an upgrade to fly first class during the government shutdown, taking corporate PAC checks and telling a Washington Post reporter “I don’t see what the big deal is, frankly” regarding President Trump’s proposed G-7 summit at Doral (Trump carried this seat by just five points in 2016). Davis hopes to be able to tie Londrigan to a more liberal nominee. It’s a Toss Up.

* Mark compares this ranking to the one Cook issued two years ago…


- Posted by Rich Miller   18 Comments      

Cook moves Bost race from “Toss Up” to “Lean R” as new poll shows growing lead

Tuesday, Oct 23, 2018

* Cook Political Report

St. Clair County prosecutor Brendan Kelly remains one of Democrats’ most prized recruits of the cycle. The Irish-Catholic Notre Dame graduate and Navy veteran has been called the “Conor Lamb of Downstate Illinois” and is exactly the type of moderate Democrat who has done well here in the past. But President Trump’s popularity in this coal and steel-heavy district looks like it might be too much for Kelly to overcome.

A new New York Times/Siena College poll shows Bost leading 48 percent to 39 percent (up from 44 percent to 43 percent a month ago). Trump, who carried the seat 54 percent to 40 percent four years after Barack Obama won it by two points, is coming to Bost’s hometown this Saturday for a rally, and they have a decent story to tell: U.S. Steel announced earlier this year it would add 800 jobs at its old Granite City works as a result of tariffs.

Moreover, the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has been aggressive in attacking Kelly’s prosecutorial record, alleging more than 50 percent of county crimes were pled out. Kelly has said he won’t vote for Nancy Pelosi, but this is one place where Trump’s base appears to have reawakened in the past month. In addition, Bost just won the endorsement of a large teachers’ union. The race isn’t over, but it’s a Democratic frustration.

The Illinois Education Association endorsed Bost last week.

* Besides the 9-point Bost lead, that new NYT poll had other bad news for local Democrats

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

    Approve 50%
    Disapprove 43%
    Don’t know 7%

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?

    Reps. keep House 48%
    Dems. take House 43%
    Don’t know 8%

- Posted by Rich Miller   53 Comments      

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