My syndicated newspaper column this week is about a new poll in the race for state treasurer.
The poll had Giannoulias leading Radogno 46-35. The survey of 600 likely voters was taken July 10-16 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. It had a margin of error of 4 percent.
The result is very close to polls taken recently by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen. Both pollsters found that Governor Rod Blagojevich was leading Judy Baar Topinka 45-34.
The SurveyUSA poll’s details showed Illinois’ partisan breakdown to be 43 percent Democratic, 32 percent Republican and 23 percent independent. So, in other words, candidates in both the treasurer’s race and the governor’s race seem to be holding right about at their expected party support levels.
Those poll results also show just how difficult it is these days for an Illinois Republican to win statewide, particularly in down-ballot races where voters are far less focused and far more uninformed. Democrats who can hold onto their base don’t have very far to go to get to 50 percent plus one vote. In order for Republicans to win, they have to sway a whole lot of independent voters and also try to convince as many Democrats as possible to cross over. Since independents here tend to lean towards the Democrats, that job is even tougher.
The question may not be what you expect.
Do you think people are filtering out the corruption stories about poll leaders Giannoulias and Blagojevich, or are they not hearing them in the first place, or do you think they just don’t believe the stories, or is it just too early to expect them to focus even a little on these races?