AFSCME Organized labor paid for polls in some aldermanic races two weeks ago. The polls were conducted by Mark Penn. Remember, however, that turnout is probably going to be extremely low in next month’s runoff election, so the biggest question is who will actually vote. Polls will have a tough time guaging that right now.
Here are some quick, topline results…
* 2nd Ward - Fioretti 50, Haithcock 24
* 3rd Ward - Dowell 53, Tillman 35
* 16th Ward - Thompson 45, Coleman 40 (After negative “push” questions about Ald. Coleman’s vote against “living wage” ordinance and other stuff, Thompson leads 52-32)
* 21st Ward - Jones 41, Brookins 40
* 32nd Ward - Waguespack 47, Matlack 33 (Tons of Machine hacks deployed to this ward for Ald. Matlack, but other polls also show the incumbent in very serious trouble)
* 35th Ward - Colon 52, Colom 47 (Ald. Mell is reportedly in big for Vilma Colom)
* 49th Ward - Joe Moore 47, Gordon 42 (I’m hearing from lots of sources that Ald. Moore is in big trouble there, with Gordon signs popping up all over the place)
* 50th Ward - Dolar 48, Stone 44 (Biggest question is who turns out to vote in an extremely low turnout election, with the betting that Ald. Stone’s base will vote. He also has a top-notch campaign manager now.)
*** UPDATE *** Naisy Dolar’s own poll has her leading Ald. Stone 47-40. From the executive summary…
This [Goodwin Simon Victoria Research] memorandum reports on the findings of a poll taken in the 50th Ward of Chicago March 18-20, 2007. Four hundred registered, likely voters for the April 17 municipal runoff election were interviewed. […]
* Stone’s… job rating is 43% positive to 55% negative… A majority of voters (53%) agree that “Bernie Stone has been around for too long and it is time to give someone new a chance.†Only 38% choose the alternative, “Bernie Stone has done a good job as Alderman for the last 33 years and deserves to be re-elected.â€
* In contrast, Naisy Dolar’s name recognition is climbing steadily and her ratings are overwhelmingly positive. Currently about six in ten voters recognize and can rate Dolar, and those ratings are a very strong 52% favorable to only 6% unfavorable. […]
* The initial trial heat is 47% for Dolar, 40% for Stone, and 13% Undecided. […]
* On a list of eight local issues, when voters are asked whether they think Bernie Stone or a “new Alderman like Naisy Dolar†would be better on each issue, there is not one single issue where 33-year veteran Bernie Stone is viewed as the better choice.
LIVE session coverage...
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 10:43 am:
I would be elated if Joe Moore gets the sack in the 49th. The poor folks in Rogers Park deserve better representation. Anyone who has visited the Howard El stop lately can attest to the sad state of affairs in Rogers Park.
Plus it may mean the return of foie gras!
- Bridget Dooley - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 10:45 am:
Wow, look at those numbers in the 2nd, 3rd and 32nd!! No small potatoes.
I hope Leroy Jones can pull it out in the 21st.
- S - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 10:47 am:
Who is the campaign manager for Stone?
- Pat Hickey - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:13 am:
Who is the campaign manager for Stone?
Mr Ward Hacks, Hacks, Awe, & Shucks, LLC.
- Bubs - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:20 am:
Matlak’s offices are often filled with Machine honchos, but all have worried looks.
- Bridget Dooley - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:23 am:
Mike Noonan is Stone’s new campaign manager.
- Caddy Shack - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:44 am:
Noonan is good but it might be too late to turn around that sinking ship.
- Bridget Dooley - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:50 am:
He got Todd Stroger elected. I think it’s fair to say that he waves a magic wand.
Details on Naisy Dolar’s poll, please. Who conducted it, sample size, etc.
- Hypocritical - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:51 am:
Salman Aftab endorses Bernie Stone? What a sellout! Not unexpected, or entirely consequential, and it pales in comparison to a very important endorsement that Naisy is expected to get later this week.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:05 pm:
Bridget, sample size was already in there, but I accidentally left out the pollster. It’s added.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:13 pm:
The idea that turnout will be much lower in the run-offs is conventional wisdom, but a myth, methinks.
I ran the numbers for the four contested run-offs in 2003. Granted, they were different geographies than the current run-offs, but the average drop-off was only slight, and one race actually had a higher turn-out.
Average drop-off: 3 percent.
I’ll bet that the Stone-Dolar race is one where the turnout will actually be higher this time.
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:17 pm:
Matlak, I believe is in trouble. More troubling though is the fact that Ald. Tom Tunney is going door-to-door for Matlak. I don’t think it makes much of difference as most people do not know Tunney outside of 44, but it may peel off some progressive votes (which is obviously the plan). But it comes across as so pathetic on Tunney’s part because he clearly would not be doing this unless the Mayor is pushing him and/or he wants something else in return. He’s supposed to be this great progressive… so first he supports Stroger and now Matlak. This is also after Matlak goons were making gay slurs toward Waguespack’s brother and questioned his right to vote.
- Anon - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:17 pm:
Rey Colon showing real weakness. Word in the ward is that his campaign is a mess, and that supporters and staff have been bailing on him since December at least.
- Caddy Shack - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:27 pm:
Magic wand to get Stroger elected? I think not. But he does have some big wins under his belt.
- Pat Hickey - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:34 pm:
” I don’t think it makes much of difference as most people do not know Tunney outside of 44, but it may peel off some progressive votes ”
Heavens! And who wouild tell them that it is Election Day! Progressives - There is Mositure cascading at a great rate from the Heavens Above - It is Raining!
Tom Tunney Good On You Guy! Effective Politician.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:34 pm:
YDD, that was misleading. Three of those four 2003 runoffs were way down from the first round…
6th -26.27%
15th -26.42%
21st -11.52%
One race was way up, the hugely and hotly contested 1st Ward, by 30 percent.
Now, you may be right in the end because many of those races in the post above are very hotly contested, but your “average” was misleading.
Pingback Citizens for Leroy Jones » Blog Archive » THIS JUST IN: Leroy pulls ahead - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:39 pm:
[…] Today’s Capitol Fax Blog is reporting the results of a poll that was done two weeks ago, The results? For the first time, Leroy has pulled ahead of the incumbent, 41%-40%. If you had any doubt that this one is going to be a close race, there’s your proof - so have no doubt that your vote will really count this April 17th! Click here to read more> […]
- Bucktowner - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 12:59 pm:
These races go to show that if you don’t do your job, it catches up with you.
Bye Dorothy, bye Matlak. One less hat, one less mope.
- Anon - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 1:36 pm:
Anyone know which union is doing the polling? That crossout is making me curious!
- Just Observing - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 2:02 pm:
Pat Hickey: Ummmm… is that english?
- Truthful James - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 2:21 pm:
Ald Tunney merely wants to get his money’s worth. His Citizens For Tunney threw $10K Matlak’s way. But then, so did Citizens foe O’Connor.
I wonder if the Tunney/O’Connor supporters know about this]
Mr. Waguespack should have his supporters asking why them furriners are carpetbagging in 32.
The key to victory is in the absentee ballots and how they can be manipulated by the incumbent. Dead Chicagoans don’t vote but those have moved may vote and never know it.
- Robby - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 2:36 pm:
You is Leroy Jones? I know he is backed by SEIU but is he any good
- Truthful James - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 3:03 pm:
That would be Citizens For O’Connor” not Foe, sorry.
- Bridget Dooley - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 3:23 pm:
Leroy Jones is a union representative from SEIU Local 73. He’s a great person and very qualified in my opinion. I think he’d be a great addition to the city council.
- Hugh - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 4:12 pm:
Citizens for Tunney wrote a $10K check to Stone 3/26/2007! WTF? Who IS this guy?
Did the Tunney donors know what might happen to their hard-earned money?
- Hugh - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 4:34 pm:
Well, maybe I shouldn’t take it so personal, Tunney is laundering money for incumbents.
$10,000.00 3/26/2007 to Bernard L Stone Campaign Comm
$10,000.00 3/23/2007 to Matlak 2007 Campaign
$10,000.00 3/22/2007 to Friends of Vi Daley
$4,000.00 2/23/2007 to Friends of George A Cardenas
At this point the incumbents in run-offs would have to DISCLOSE their contributions, but Tom doesn’t, until July anyway. I guess we’ll find out how TOM came across all this dough in come the July semi-annuals.
nice guy
real progressive
- Pat Hickey - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 4:41 pm:
J.O. asks,
Ummmm… is that english?
Butchered, J.O., M’a Boy, Butchered.
- Truthful James - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 5:02 pm:
Matlak got the money, Stone got money too (?)
What follows is supposition, grain of salt time.
If so, Alderman Tunney’s contribution list may reveal a lot of $1,000 contributions from outside Chicago. If it does, he could be a focal point of the covert group set up by the software inventor of Quark, Mr. Gill, who directs money to candidates who will support equal rights for homosexuals (see the March Atlantic) and to defeat those who oppose gay marriage. Gill is concentrating on State and local races nationwide rather than Federal races. He has had great success.
Alderman Tunney would be the ideal transfer point.
- A new 32 - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 5:17 pm:
Tunney has lost of lot of respect in a lot of people’s eyes by giving money and support to Matlak. Talk about the dark side of politics.
- Tom Mannis - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 6:01 pm:
Joe Moore is having secret mock debate practice. His team is very worried, and now has more leaks than a sieve. They are singing like birds over there about how stressed out Joe is.
- Bill - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 6:17 pm:
YESSSSSSSSSSS!!!
Great news. There is hope for democracy!
- Bill - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 7:01 pm:
I wonder if little Dick has gotten the message yet?
- nobodysent - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 7:49 pm:
The dark side of politics? Try just plain politics. I’d love to see Stone go down, but I’m not that disappointed in Tunney. Not really that suprising, either, it’s not like Tunney is an independent.
- Bridget Dooley - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 7:52 pm:
Sure they are, Tom.
- Tom Mannis - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 7:59 pm:
No, really, Birdget, they are. But since your a big Greg Brewer fan, I guess you’re also sympathetic to Joe Moore. Say, are you the same Bridget Dooley as the one who just bought a house on 1108 Plymouth Landing Road in the Philadelphia area from Anthony Ingenito and Marjorie Ingenito with Daren Dooley for $344,900? If so, how much time do you really spend in Chicago?
- Bridget Dooley - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 8:34 pm:
Um, yeah, that’s me, Tom. You need to spend less time on The Google. The name “Bridget Dooley” is basically the “Jane Smith” of Ireland. There are many of us.
And yes, I am a fan of Joe Moore.
- Loyal Whig - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 10:36 pm:
Would be amazing if the Peoples Republic of Rogers Park did not vote for Moore.
- Hugh - Wednesday, Mar 28, 07 @ 11:49 pm:
Citizens for Tunney had a sudden burst of generosity 3/22 - 3/27. Tunney gave away more dough in one week than he had since November, 2006. The three contributions to incumbents are 3 of the 4 largest tranfers ever recorded by Citizens for Tunney.
What an odd coalition: Stone, Vi Daley, Matlak, Tunney. What do they have in common ideologically?
> Tunney is going door-to-door for Matlak
Tunney’s money is green enough, but I’m going to go out on limb here and guess Stone will not invite Tunney to the 50th to knock on doors for him.
- Truthful James - Thursday, Mar 29, 07 @ 8:33 am:
Hugh —
Tunney doesn’t have to. Everybody who has read the March 2007 Atlantic article, please raise your hand.
- So-Called "Austin Mayor" - Thursday, Mar 29, 07 @ 11:00 am:
“Say, are you the same Bridget Dooley as the one who just bought a house on 1108 Plymouth Landing Road in the Philadelphia area from Anthony Ingenito and Marjorie Ingenito with Daren Dooley for $344,900?”
Bwahahahahahah!
[gasp]
No offense intended, Bridget.
[gasp]
Bwahahahahaha!
– SCAM
- leek - 32nd ward - Saturday, Mar 31, 07 @ 6:07 pm:
Hey - make sure to watch the Matlak Waguespack “discussion” on Chicago Tonight April 3rd LIVE.
- Crist - Friday, May 18, 07 @ 10:37 pm:
Interesting…