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Lackluster Bond numbers, strong Hynes, Rutherford numbers and Giannoulias tries a setup on Kirk
Thursday, Jul 16, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller * Swing State Project takes a look at 2nd Quarter congressional fundraising and discovers lackluster numbers for Democratic state Sen. Michael Bond. All the figures, of course, are in thousands…  From the narrative…
Bond only had a month or so to raise that money, but he can’t scare anybody else out of the race with those numbers. Compare his totals to Republican Adam Kinzinger for context and it’s even worse. Kinzinger is an amateur, while Bond is a respected go-getter, so expectations were very high. He was probably hurt by Kirk’s indecision on the Senate race (particularly from the hardcore pro-Israel types and the business lobby who are with the incumbent Kirk). Still, those totals simply should’ve been better. That report puts blood in the water. Bond told me today he hopes to push hard and fast after Kirk finally announces and quickly report new fundraising numbers. That’s an absolute must. * On a much brighter fundraising note, a top source says Comptroller Dan Hynes will report raising about $900,000 during the first six months of this year and will have around $3.5 million cash on hand. No word yet on Gov. Quinn’s fundraising, but expectations are low, particularly after that flap over his June fundraisers which had to be canceled. * Republican state treasurer candidate Sen. Dan Rutherford filed his six-month disclosure report with the State Board of Elections this morning. Rutherford raised $267,000 and had a bit over $400,000 cash on hand. * GOP state Sen. Dan Cronin, a recently all but declared candidate for DuPage County Board Chairman, filed this morning with $150,000 raised in the past six months and $80,000 cash on hand. * Moving along to other issues, The Hill reported this week that they couldn’t find any GOP Senatorial candidates who would take a position on President Obama’s Supreme Court nomineee…
So, with GOP Congressman Mark Kirk’s Senate campaign kickoff announcement expected this coming Monday, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is trying to make Sotomayor an issue. From a press release…
* Speaking of Kirk, far right national blogger Michelle Malkin took yet another whack at the Republican this week, and Illinois Review blogger Sam PIerce offered up some tongue in cheek Kirk campaign slogans…
Frankly, “Mess With A RINO, Get The Horn,” is pretty darned good. * GOP gubernatorial candidate Sen. Kirk Dillard got some good press in the Chicago Tribune today…
But one of his primary opponents, Dan Proft, disagrees…
* Illinois Review claims that former GOP state Sen. Roger Keats is a possible Cook County Board President candidate. * Another super-slick Internet campaign ad from Gov. Pat Quinn… * Heard anything else?
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- anon - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 2:53 pm:
Wow! pretty impressive showing by Kinzinger - he is the real deal!
- Brennan - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 2:53 pm:
Is Alexi an amateur?
He issues a press release. You won’t find this or any of his press releases on his website. Progress Illinois, a “news site” whose only sponsor is the SEIU-Illinois, is the only publication to reprint the press release. Alexi’s website then copies the Progress Illinois posting.
http://is.gd/1BhEM
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 2:59 pm:
Brennan, that press release was sent out via e-mail several hours ago, before the PI post.
- Joe in the Know - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:02 pm:
If we humor Dan Proft (R-Cicero), will he promise to go away, I mean, really, leave the state after he comes in last?
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:02 pm:
I was wondering about money. who has it and who doesn’t at this point. thanks!
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:11 pm:
Roger Keats is still alive? Who knew?
Anybody else enjoying the GOP on GOP bloodbath at IR? Can you feel the conservative love for Mark Kirk oozing off the pixels?
As bad as the Democrats are at governing, the GOP takes the cake for party building. Not enough toys in the sandbox for all the children there.
- anon - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:14 pm:
this Sam PIerce guy really doesnt get it, does he - have a little vision. sad.
- Brennan - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:17 pm:
==Can you feel the conservative love for Mark Kirk oozing off the pixels?==
I doubt Kirk is that good, but his C&T vote is an easy walk back. His constituency grows as a Senate candidate. The more voices against C&T his outreach will encounter the greater his trend away from his vote.
And the GOP has never been good at party building. It’s always been a party tying together many interests to campaign together when they start to align.
- Team America - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:17 pm:
Far too many GOPers would rather wreck the sandbox if they can’t be in charge of it. Sadly, that’s been the case for a long while.
My early read is that the vocal anti-Kirk crowd may do a lot of whining for the next few months, but they have no viable alternative with enough money to pose a serious threat to Kirk even in the primary, and every point that irks them about Kirk will aid him in the general.
- Homer J. Simpson - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:20 pm:
Wow, whatever “inc” means, it must help people earn money. I mean every one of these people with inc. after their name has a ton of money. …Oh, wait!
- bob the builder - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:22 pm:
Is AKPD doing Quinn’s stuff, as they have in the past?
- Bill S. Preston, Esq. - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:26 pm:
Brennan, his Sotomayor press release is there. And all of his press releases are on his media page. Way to go.
Sotomayor release: http://www.alexiforillinois.com/node/3149
Press releases:
http://www.alexiforillinois.com/media
- siriusly - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:27 pm:
Kirk’s loitering isn’t the only reason Bond has had trouble raising money. It’s a convenient excuse, but its not the only reason. Seriously.
- phil - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:29 pm:
Kirk is a master at getting the begrudged conservative vote while occupying the center of the electorate. His democratic opponents always find themselves with nothing but the liberal vote, which simply isn’t enough in the 10th Congressional District or Illinois.
It is important for conservatives and libertarians to voice their concerns about Kirk votes. They have a chance to elect a conservative in the primary. But 16 months from now (if Kirk wins the primary), almost all of them will agree that there are enough reasons for them to vote for him.
- Small Town Liberal - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:30 pm:
Quinns videos aren’t made by AKPD, they’re the work of a couple very talented individuals.
- Ben S. - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:30 pm:
@ siriusly
I agree, both Seals and Footlik had raised well over $200 K at this point last cycle.
- Bill - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:31 pm:
Team A,
Good point, In fact, if they could get Kirk to make a commercial for Barack he might stand a pretty good chance in the general.
- Central IL Guy - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:33 pm:
Here is one downstate moderate who will take a hard look at Kirk because he voted to do something about global climate change. Yes, cap and trade has its problems, but at least it points us in the right direction. Right now, I’m more than ready for a little courage and independence in our political leaders.
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:36 pm:
Good showing by Kinzinger. That 11th CD race will be a fun one to watch.
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:49 pm:
Bill,
A Kirk commercial for Obama would only be good until that sound clip of Kirk deriding the “Obama agenda” is used in an opposition commercial alongside an image of someone sticking their finger to the wind to figure out which way the hot air is blowing that day…
Why would Kirk denigrate Obama’s agenda only to end up voting for one of its cornerstones?
- Shore - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 3:59 pm:
test
- Shore - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:02 pm:
inc is incumbent.
Bond won’t have as easy a time as he thinks. Unlike gash and seals, he will have to play defense in the district for his party. With a blago trial dominating chicago all next year, he won’t have the chance to merely frame the race as seals and gash failed to do as a choice between bush and gore/obama.
There are 2 former congressional aides considering the race, both are proteges of former Illinois Republicans who weren’t tainted by scandal. Either would be a great heir to the porter/kirk legacy and give the party a good shot at keeping the seat.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:03 pm:
Shore, for whatever reason your comments got caught in my spam filter. Hopefully, that won’t happen again.
- phil - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:04 pm:
Bill,
I think the answer to this question is self-evident, particularly if you stress the word “one”
“Why would Kirk denigrate Obama’s agenda only to end up voting for one of its cornerstones?”
Fact is, Kirk voted against Obama’s pork stimulus and his omnibus bill and he is a leader fighting against the misguided Obama care bill.
- Rubbernecker - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:06 pm:
Rich - I agree. The Quinn videos are well done, but who’s watching them (aside from people who read your blog)?
Here’s the number of You Tube views of the 3 vids you’ve alerted us to:
Ditka/Quinn… 1,288
Emil/Quinn… 540
Inland Hurricane/Quinn… 200
By comparison, when I searched “Pat Quinn” on You Tube one of the top videos viewed was some other (?) Pat Quinn elbowing Bobby Orr (”old-time hockey”). It’s been viewed 26,000 times (it’s pretty good - knocked him cold).
Point is, how is Pat Quinn version 2009 circulating these vids? There not exactly “viral”.
- VanillaMan - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:07 pm:
“I urge all individuals, Democrat and Republican, who have expressed an interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by President Obama to let Illinois voters know how they would carry out their responsibility on a confirmation vote for Judge Sotomayor.”
Talk about assumptions here. She isn’t even finished with questions and poll show the electorate split on her, but Giannoulais wants to use the confirmation vote as an issue? Sounds like he is pandering to Hispanic voters who he believes will decide whom to vote for based on Sotomayor. Weak.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:13 pm:
Rubbernecker, one of the videos may take off some day. I’m one of a tiny handful who ever post that stuff, so the low view count isn’t surprising. Amazing that newspapers have tons of blogs that don’t ever link to these sorts of videos. More than a couple political reporters have to be spoon fed, and I’ve yet to see a campaign e-mail pointing to the vids.
But, I’m showing these vids to give an idea how Quinn’s “real” TV ads might look, if he can ever raise any money.
- bored now - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:22 pm:
VM, not exactly sure where you get your news, but the most recent polls suggest public support is ~2 to 1 in support of sotomayor’s confirmation:
Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by FD. July 9-13, 2009. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
“On the topic of President Obama’s nomination to the Supreme Court, do you support or oppose the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court of the United States?” Options rotated
Date | Support Oppose Unsure
7/9-13/09 50 28 22
Gallup Poll. July 10-12, 2009. N=1,018 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
“Now, turning to the U.S. Supreme Court: As you may know, Sonia Sotomayor is the federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Sotomayor serving on the Supreme Court, or not?”
Date | VoteFor VoteAg Unsure
7/10-12/09 53 33 13
5/29-31/09 54 28 19
Quinnipiac University Poll. June 23-29, 2009. N=3,063 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 1.8.
“Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court?”
Date | Approve Disappr Unsure
6/23-29/09 54 26 20
5/26 - 6/1/09 55 25 20
i’m assuming that this isn’t what you wanted to hear, so you just threw out the pandering charge to see if it stuck. voters are stupid, so maybe you’re unto something there…
- Arthur Andersen - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:43 pm:
Aren’t Dillard and Eppley law partners? So much for collegiality, I guess.
Alexi does have a nice batch o’ releases and stuff on that Website. The one I couldn’t find was “Giannoulias collects $77 million from Oppenheimer to settle BrightStart losses.”
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:51 pm:
Phil, since you’re responding for Bill, you misunderstood the point of that hypothetical commercial.
Bill suggested a hypothetical Kirk-supporting-Obama commercial might actually be a good thing for Kirk in a General Election (a la Dillard’s commercial) by helping him with moderates.
I noted that it’d be pretty easy to point out his tendency to straddle both sides of the road (ie, put his finger to the wind) — having first denigrated the Obama agenda last year then (if he were to do as Bill suggested) supporting Obama.
To wit: The flip-flopper meme was pretty powerful against Kerry in 2004, for better or worse.
As for Kirk, if he were to use Obama’s image to get in good with moderates and his Dem opponent were to point out he’s both for and against the Obama agenda (which he apparently is) it puts Kirk in a Catch-22.
If he comes off as for Obama, conservatives will be less likely to help him let alone vote for him.
If he comes off as against Obama, moderates will be less likely to vote for him…
- Segatari - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:54 pm:
Malkin is a blogger? I thought she was a syndicated columnist?
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:56 pm:
Vanilla, The Republican Senators on the Judiciary are doing a pretty good job of painting themselves as pandering to racial politics themselves. If you playing a drinking game to the tune of “Miguel Estrada” and “wise Latina” you’d still be hungover by Monday…
So, Giannoulias’ strategy is a wise one and Kirk will likely not respond even if a reporter asks the question. (”Because of my work in the House I haven’t had time to review all of the details regarding Judge Sotomayor.”)
- law partners - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 4:59 pm:
nope eppley works for KL Gates - they are not in the same firm!
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 5:02 pm:
(language warning in the link below)
Segatari, I thought Malkin stalked 12-year-old boys and their families.
- Skeeter - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 5:03 pm:
I hear a challenger to Ken Dunkin is going to put up a very respectable number.
- Shore - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 5:22 pm:
I didn’t mean to post things 6 times. I think it’s a flaw with my laptop.
- Arthur Andersen - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 5:27 pm:
Thanks, law partners. My mistake: had Lord, Bissell & Brook tangled up with Bell, Boyd, & Lloyd (now KL Gates.)
- Brennan - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 5:42 pm:
==The Republican Senators on the Judiciary are doing a pretty good job of painting themselves as pandering to racial politics themselves. If you playing a drinking game to the tune of “Miguel Estrada” and “wise Latina” you’d still be hungover by Monday…==
Speaking of Estrada, did you read this “blog post” from former Tribune reporter Jan Crawford Greenburg about him?
http://is.gd/1Bpu9
I’d like to see Kirk take Alexi’s bait, but I’d let Alexi try and use the challenge to trip himself.
- Anon West Side - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 6:08 pm:
Rich,
I find your comments very interesting for Bond … “Bond only had a month or so to raise that money, but he can’t scare anybody else out of the race with those numbers. Compare his totals to Republican Adam Kinzinger for context and it’s even worse. Kinzinger is an amateur, while Bond is a respected go-getter, so expectations were very high.”
What’s most interesting is because, in reviewing Ethan Hastert’s report, which was late, and in violation of the law, he raised the exact same amount as Bond.
Perhaps the former Speaker’s son doesn’t realize how hard it is to raise money when your dad is no longer in power.
- Downstate GOP Faithless - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 6:56 pm:
this U of I thing is absurd…these guys basically killed the dreams of students who earned their way into the school, because a bunch of legislators-kirk dillard included-think they know better than the admissions office…they should be the ones who lose their jobs
- wordslinger - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 7:44 pm:
–Kirk is a master at getting the begrudged conservative vote while occupying the center of the electorate.–
Dude, he’s never run outside the North Shore. A “begrudged conservative,” whatever that is, in Lake Forest might be quite different from the ones in Wheaton, Naperville, Bloomington, Bolingbrook, Peoria, Champaign, Marion, etc.
A statewide GOP primary is a whole different story. He’s going to have a challenger on the right, and it might be a real one.
Unless it’s a Michelle Malkin type, then he probably wins in a walk.
- James the Intolerant - Thursday, Jul 16, 09 @ 9:15 pm:
I believe Hynes still owes at least $1M from his US Senate run. So do his creditors from that race get the pipe while he sits on $3.5M?
- VanillaMan - Friday, Jul 17, 09 @ 9:19 am:
That kind of politics might work in the Democratic Party, but elsewhere no one gives two cents about it. If Giannoulais wants to make Sotomayor’s confirmation some kind of litmus test, he has been living in a partisan world far too long.
Let the Dying Media slobber over her personal story. The rest of the US will not care who voted which way. Giannoulais is exposing himself by using it as some kind of campaign charge against Kirk. It shows he doesn’t know how voters think outside his own little world.