* Republican gubernatorial candidate Kirk Dillard has a new cable TV ad which features former Gov. Jim Edgar. Rate it…
It’s a $50,000 buy on Fox News for the week. The ad will be running throughout the day and evening on the cable channel.
*** UPDATE 2 *** As some commenters have pointed out, there’s more to the buy than just Fox News. But just barely. From my usual industry insider…
* Dillard booked a total of 95k statewide - broadcast and cable
* Markets - Champaign - cable only 4k total
Chicago- booked 50k on cable and 10k on broadcast
Paducah booked 5k broadcast no cable
Peoria- 19k broadcast, 3k cable
Rockford- 3,500 on cable only no broadcast
This is a very light broadcast buy, to say the least.
*** UPDATE 3 *** A pal with the Dillard campaign says Champaign network (WCIA) was bought this week.
[ *** End of Updates *** ]
* Meanwhile, in other political news, Adam Andrzejewski says he’s on a “fact-finding mission to Poland” with his dad…
I’m currently visiting the Republic of Poland as part of an economic and political fact-finding mission. My four day mission trip will include both official and familial appointments. The goal of the mission is to discover how the State of Illinois can improve its economic and cultural relationship with the Republic of Poland in order to promote job growth, economic vitality, and increased international trade between the two.
* Adlai Stevenson has endorsed Justin Oberman for state treasurer and Oberman is featuring Stevenson in a new radio ad. I’ll have the audio during the lunch hour, so watch for an update. For now, here’s the script…
Your state treasurer can be a big help in these troubled times—from improving state finances to creating new jobs. I know, because I served as state treasurer before you elected me senator.
I’m Adlai Stevenson and I’m grateful for your past support. But now I want to tell you about an outstanding candidate with a strong professional background and great plans for the treasurer’s office—including job creation.
Justin Oberman served our country in transportation and homeland security, managing a large staff and budget. He now runs his own financial firm helping green companies grow. His qualifications are unmatched for managing the treasurer’s office and investing state funds wisely. But he can also bring private investment back to Illinois, which will mean more new jobs.
I urge you to support Justin Oberman for State Treasurer in the Democratic primary.
Justin: Thank you for your support. Paid for by Oberman for Illinois.
Stevenson: It’s a new generation, but the name Oberman still means reform.
The Edgar seal of approval still works for most voters, including me. Perhaps in future ads, both Dillard and Edgar can be seen together, holding hands, going for long walks, flicking a locker room towel at one another - you know. Edgar needs to put out a little more than this.
Adlai has been out of sight for too long. Nice to hear he is still alive.
Nothing says moving toward the future like a radio endorsement by Adlai Stevenson.
Justin Oberman’s chief government experience is working for the Bush administration.
At the IVI-IPO endorsement session he failed to make the case why Democratic voters should change from the Giannoulias/Kelly administration.
And, Oberman appeared before the audience in pants that were woefully wrinkled. Not fresh pressed pants? That’s OK. But these pants were wrinkled from hip to ankle.
Oberman wants to get in the game at a reasonably high level. He doesn’t want to do time in city council or the state legislature. And he thinks that having a father with a good reputation plus doing time in the Bush administration justifies him going straight to Congress or statewide office.
We’ll see how the voters feel. I didn’t perceive that Oberman got any traction at the IVI-IPO endorsements. There are a few people impressed with JO. But they don’t seem to be able to persuade the people who know Robin Kelly to reconsider. And it seems like Robin Kelly has met more people in Illinois as a state rep and chief of staff to the Treasurer than JO has met through his dad and his time in the Bush administration.
Note to aspiring politicians: doing time in DC in the other party’s administration is probably not a productive way to make the contacts necessary to run back in your home state if you don’t live in MD, VA, WV or DE.
Dillard seems to think primary voters are stupid enough to forget that despite all his efforts 20 years ago, he endorsed obama and has done pretty much nothing to stop democrats here. Where’s he been the last 10 years? Let’s start with that.
Adam’s itinerary is pretty funny. Meeting with the polish version of the heritage foundation, an entity which celebrates rush limbaugh and sarah palin as serious conservative thinkers, barf. I also don’t think the governor of Illinois gets a seat at the table in the sit room to decide whether we put missile defense in poland.
==In 2008, I joined over 100,000 Republicans in Ohio, 119,000 in Texas, and 38,000 in Mississippi who voted for Hillary Clinton to put Republicans in the best position to win in the general election.==
Thank Lincoln’s ghost that more Republicans were smart enough to take Democrat ballots in the primaries in order to vote in what’s-his-name (the junior Senator from Illinois) and then getting him kicked off the ballot in October when he couldn’t produce his birth certificate. Saved the GOP from almost certain defeat and a decade of being irrelevant on the national stage.
Always a good laugh when I explain it to some friends……
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 1:16 pm:
Adam Alphabet’s Polish Agenda:
1. The proposition that the United States, Poland, and Illinois have an acute need to maximize their mutual relationship regarding economic growth, international trade, and education. As governor of Illinois, I’ll make Illinois a magnet for Polish foreign investment.
2. As Governor, I will spearhead an effort to eliminate visa entry for Polish nationals to the United States, giving them equal status as those of EU-member nations.
3. As Governor, I’ll promote Illinois-based foreign investment in Poland and other nations.
4. As Governor, I will support the on-going efforts for a stationary missile defense shield based in Poland.
1. Poland has a GDP of $527 billion, less than the state of Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, our bordering states have a GDP of $990 billion. Perhaps Adam should start a little closer to home.
2. As Governor, you have Zero to say about Visa policy. You’d be better off writing a letter to Senator Durbin and cc’ing Cong. Lipinski, Cong. Dingell, Sen. Sanders, Gov. Pawlenty, and the Polish American Congress.
3. How about promoting investment in Illinois, instead of Poland?
4. Um, yeah, good luck with that.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 1:18 pm:
I’m guessing that the challenge to Brown’s petitions will be successful, if not the stroger’s camp then the challenge concerning the people her camp used to collect signatures mounted by some as of yet unnamed concerned “voter.”
that leaves toni, todd and terry. i’m guessing danny davis will endorse todd. after all davis said several weeks ago that todd would make, or is, a good co. board president. the only threat to todd is toni…she has and black support. terry has no black support,and likely won’t get any. i go back to the question that i have had since the summer. where/with whom do hispanic voters go between todd and toni? they go todd, todd wins? todd gets no white vote, and splits black votes with toni.
terry gets much of the white vote, and what he doesn’t get (lakefront) all goes to toni.
with the probability/inevitability of polling places closing late in certain areas due to “problems” with voting equipment, todd just might win.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 1:21 pm:
=== Dillard seems to think primary voters are stupid enough… ===
I think you just summed up Illinois’ primary process very nicely.
The differences between the candidates on the big issues within a primary are pretty razor-thin. Every GOP candidate has told the voters to read their lips with regard to taxes this time around.
This primary will be won by the candidate who raises the most money and spends it the most wisely.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 1:26 pm:
word, you gave the dillard ad a 6 out of 10? that’s harsh. thanksgiving ended for you at precisely 12:01 am on november 27th?
i disagree with word. it’s a solid intro ad effort. i give it an A. Dillard looks good.
Well, at least Dillard’s ad didn’t talk about hair. Decent ad, although it’s about as exciting as the guy narrating it - not at all! Should help him be believed as a real candidate, but I can’t believe the average GOP voter cares much who Edgar endorses since he’s been picking losers consistently for the last several cycles. If he wanted to have an impact and help his party, he should have run in 2006 or run for the U.S. Senate.
Dillard needs to do a lot more than this, unless this is a last-ditch effort to move his numbers into some semblance of competitiveness. If it’s his “Hail Mary,” then it makes sense, I guess.
He’s beginning to look like the GOP’s John McCain of 2010. He just says “Edgar” instead of “Reagan.” If he makes it through the primary, he just doesn’t do anything for me. Tough to energize the base with such a boring campaign/candidate.
- Will County Woman - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 1:32 pm:
Re stroge et al.
oh my bad… i disdn’t really mean that polling places would close late, i meant they would be late to report. also toni will likely win a good portion of white votes in other parts of cook county beyond just the lakefront areas. she’ll no doubt do better than terry in places like oak park, skokie etc.
This is only one man’s opinion but:
1) Kirk Dillard would do much better if he didn’t always turn to Jim Edgar to convince us that he would make a good choice for governor. Kirk Dillard reminds me of the little kid in grade school that always ran to seek the safety and protection of his big brother rather than “stand on his own two feet”. Mr. Dillard has been beating the “Jim Edgar likes me” drum for all that it is worth. The “Jim is my best friend” theme has gotten to sound like a scratched 45 rpm record that the needle keeps skipping over once too many times. Quit beating the dead horse, Kirk. We get the picture that you keep drawing on the bathroom wall for us.
And, #2)Adam Andrzjewski running over to Poland to “conduct a fact finding mission for Illinois” is a bit too much. It would be like Jim Ryan stating that he was running off to stay in a Tibetan monastery so that he could see if trade agreements with Tibet might be “a good thing”. Do these guys ever wonder what the voters really think of their theatrics? When do they grow up and quit living in their pretend worlds? Adam is “a nice kid” but “a big kid” is exactly what he is. I will have to say that Adam and Kirk do manage to make Pat Quinn look better all of the time (and, by the way, I am a Republican).
Candidate loyalty oaths are unconstitutional. Communist Party v. Whitcomb , 414 U.S. 441 (1974).
Remarkably, the loyalty oath remains on the books here. 10 ILCS 5/7-10.1.
Calling it “optional” does not make it “less unconstitutional”.
No candidate should have to renounce (or, for that matter, profess) political beliefs as a condition of running for office. That’s the law of the land.
The General Assembly needs to repeal the loyalty oath — thirty-five years after the fact. Election authorities should stop distributing it. And the Illinois State Board of Elections in particular should immediately cease its egregious practice of compiling lists of candidates who have — and have not — signed it!
I think too many are assuming Dillard’s Edgar endorsement ad is his only message. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have some issue based ads in the wings. I’d also be surprised if he didn’t have some polling data show that the Edgar message moves numbers.
At any rate, he’s on TV and his closest competitors aren’t.
The problem with edgar is that dillard like the rest of the 7 dwarfs is stuck in a past that frankly doesn’t exist anymore. I realize to people in springfield edgar is a big deal, but to the rest of the state, we are more interested in what you did the last 2 years to stop the democrats and why you endorsed obama if you knew he was a socialist. Where’s he demonstrated his genius? Bueller?
1st rule of modern european history-never invade russia in winter. 2nd rule of modern european history never go to poland on a fact finding mission 60 days before a primary. Dan Seals went to Israel on a fact finding mission before comrade kirk beat him, twice, because he knew that as a 9th district democrat where they are anti-israel, he needed to be able to tell the juf crowd he’d been to the golan heights and seen the west bank settlements. Alexi went to greece on a sketchy junket with durbin because he had to be able to tell people that his foreign policy experience wasn’t limited to spring break in cancun.
Prophet: I agree Dillard should stop saying “Jim Edgar.” Just like Obama should have stopped saying “change.” Its a bad idea to say things that voters will respond to in a positive manner. It just doesn’t make any sense.
The polish population in cook county is second only to Warsaw at least thats what I have heard. In any event there are a lot of polish voters in the chicago land area. Did you ever think they would like that Adam went to Poland?
The Dillard ad was very good, a solid intro. Edgar is still a name that catches people’s attention.
All I hear is how serious the problems are. I don’t want to hear about hate and hair. Dillard setting a serious tone from the start is exactly what I want. I look forward to his future ads that address specific issues seriously and pointedly.
I give Adam credit for going to Poland. People over there may not read polls and actually think he may be governor. Running for office can have some upsides, so might as well use this one and try to convince your motherland that you are the real deal.
Plus, what is the downside? The guy slips from 5% to 4% in the polls and is tied with Schillerstrom and Proft?
So no one knew Edgar is helping Dillard and now 5k of media in Peducah is going to make deference I don’t think so. They may remember Edgar’s name they won’t remember who he is and won’t know who Dillard is because he doesn’t speak.
$10K Chicago? What is that, about 25 points? So that equates to something like one network spot in Chicago? That’s odd to say the least…I am guessing someone smarter than me can actually correct my numbers, but I dont think I am that far off.
- Middle of the Road - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 2:38 pm:
The only numbers reported here is $50k for Fox News, and that probably only covers the Chicago market. We’ve already established that the ad appears outside of Chicago and on non-Fox stations. Anyone hearing whether he’s hitting broadcast as well?
- Will County Woman - Monday, Nov 30, 09 @ 2:38 pm:
how is it that republicans manage to win governor’s offices in states like california or new york? states that have been blue in every presidential election since clinton ‘92?
the most damning indictment against il dems in 2010 are:
the white house
state of illinois 2002-2009
forcing even democratic voters to agree and concede that too much of one thing is not good.
Sorry, Red Ranger. I should have stated my point of view more clearly. My intent was simply to point out that I felt Dillard failed when it came to telling voters other pertinent reasons why he should be our next governor. I can understand why he would want the voter to identify himself with former Governor Edgar.
I am sorry that I failed to remember that Chicago has a very large Polish vote. I am not from Chicago as you can tell. Now, I understand. Thank you.
Any media buy by any candidate at this time is good strategy. An endorsement by Edgar a big plus. As Rich and Red Ranger noted repeat of a positive at this stage is good strategy. Dillard definitely need to raise more money and expand on this effort but a good start, and at a time when he is relatively alone and not lost in countless Adds except for HAIR.
word, the fact is very very few governors even go to mexico on foreign trips according to the folks I know in mexico city that deal with official travel at the embassy. to spend 1/15 of his remaining campaign time in krackow seems to be more of an “on crack move”.
Seals going to Israel was very smart, I could see Alexi going to greece, but this makes no sense. He would have been better off nailing quinn for the africa trade appointment, finding some former bush ustr officials and saying that as governor and a former businessman he’d seek ways to boost foreign trade outlining a 7 point plan at the chicago foreign relations council, talking up his plan on business. It’s worth noting that the polish woman who ran against rahm in 2002 got beat in one of the most polish districts in the state.