* The Dan Hynes campaign has released a new polling memo which shows they’ve done some major damage to Quinn’s fortunes and made this a real horse race - with a major assist from Republican Andy McKenna’s campaign, which is whacking the guv like crazy on the tax issue. In essence, Quinn has been hit with a two-track assault for weeks without much of a response.
The seven-point spread in Hynes’ poll is about the same as a poll I told subscribers about yesterday. That other poll, taken by the Alexi Giannoulias campaign, had it at 49-43, sources outside the campaign now confirm.
Anyway, on to the Hynes polling memo. All emphasis in original…
With two weeks to go in the primary campaign for Governor of Illinois, Dan Hynes is surging – according to a recent poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters conducted January 17 – 18, 2009 by Global Strategy Group. Key findings include:
* Dan Hynes is now within just seven points and Quinn is polling well below 50%. Today, Pat Quinn leads with just 44% of the vote to Dan Hynes at 37% and 19% undecided. That is a remarkable change versus our November poll (where Quinn led by 17 points) and the Chicago Tribune’s December poll (where Quinn led by 26 points). It is clear that the most recent advertising blitz is causing voters to tune into this campaign and that voters are moving towards Hynes as they see competing advertisements from both sides.
* Pat Quinn’s ratings are in a total free-fall. Quinn’s negative job approval rating is now at 60% – up ten points since November. Remarkably, only 36% of primary voters approve of the job Quinn is doing.
* Pat Quinn is unelectable in a general election. Pat Quinn has a 60% negative job rating (and just a 36% positive job rating) among primary voters – a group that should be his strongest in a general election. Such a low rating with primary voters means that Quinn’s ratings must be even worse with a general election electorate that includes Republicans and Independents. In this political environment, Quinn simply cannot win in November.
* Voters view Dan Hynes as by far the better choice on the key economic issues facing Illinois. Voters think Hynes will do a better job “handling the state’s budget and finances” (Hynes 43%/Quinn 29%), and “cutting waste from state government” (Hynes 39%/Quinn 27%). In addition, by a stunning 54% to 9% voters believe it is Pat Quinn who will raise their taxes.
The bottom line is this: Now that voters are paying attention to this campaign – and seeing competing advertisements from both campaigns – Dan Hynes is surging and Pat Quinn is in a total free-fall. Hynes is within single digits and Quinn is well below 50% in an environment where undecideds will likely break against the better known incumbent Governor. With two weeks to go, Hynes is in a great position to win this campaign.
Those are awful numbers for Quinn. Just awful. A disapproval of 60? Oof. And that 54-9 on how Quinn will be the one to raise their taxes? Hynes ought to send McKenna a big box of roses for that one.
* Meanwhile, Hynes has a new, hard-hitting 15-second ad on the botched early release program. It was ripped from live TV, so there is a little bleed-over from other stuff at the beginning and end. Sorry about that. Anyway, rate it…
- Posted by Rich Miller
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 10:50 am:
Not surprising, sadly.
This was always Pat Quinn’s race to lose, and he may have found a way.
If he thought his numbers were soft among women and African American voters before…
Quinn’s biggest problem now is that insiders may be convinced that Quinn is unsalvagable. He way not be responding to those ads because the money has already dried up.
That’s good news. I don’t know if Hynes will be an effective Governor, but I’m convinced that Pat Quinn isn’t up to the task. As an independent, I could see myself voting for Hynes. Quinn? Not even if the Republicans pick a loser. I’d rather “waste” my vote on a third candidate.
This isn’t a reflection of people knowing Hynes, it is a reflection of what happens when you spend three weeks recieving the “Willie Horton” treatment. Expect Quinn to return fire with Burr Oak, Funeral Trust Fund Scandal, Ethics Abuses and Pension Abusers. Hynes hasn’t really been beaten up yet.
- Objective Dem - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 10:57 am:
When Quinn became Governor I had a generally favorable view of him. But since then my opinion has been dropping on a steady basis. The appointment of an inexperience kid as head of State Police was the first shoe. The appointment of the head of corrections with a problematic past was a second shoe. Since then it has been a steady barrage of issues, waffles, and poor leadership.
I once thought Quinn was more interested in doing the right thing than getting elected. I don’t think anyone believes that now.
- A matter of trust - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 10:57 am:
“Pat Quinn is unelectable in a general election.” What does that say for the remainder of the GOP field, other than JIm Ryan, who have polled losing to Quinn in the recent Rasmussen poll.
My humble opinion as a woman voter, I don’t think Quinn can put up enough ads sqealing “Burr Oak” to make female voters forget this Hynes ad. Quinn’s already had what would amount to 25% of a term in office and he just keeps sputtering, I don’t see how the undecideds will suddenly turn to Quinn at this point with 2 weeks to go.
I know you have to respond to some attacks but I find it telling that Quinn will engage in the back and forth, not to mention in an angry way, and can’t seem to say anything with focus that his administration has done to make anything better since Blagojevich was thrown out of office and he took over.
Let’s not forget that even with all of Hynes negativity he is still down 6 to 7 points. Quinn has absorbed everything that Hynes has thrown at him and is still in good position for Feb 2nd. Hynes is out of time and ideas, and now he is getting really desperate. At this point all he is doing is providing ammo for the Republicans to use against Quinn in the general.
Next month - we vote. Quinn is still favored by his party and has the endorsement of the party establishment. That means Quinn can win the nomination if the Democrats don’t look up and see the train coming at them this year.
Yeah - the polls show that Quinn can beat any GOP nominee - today. But what is happening to Quinn is that he is losing the support he had last year by his constant rambling and bumbling. Quinn will continue to bleed support throughout 2010. The February primary was a godsend to Mr. Quinn because it occurs before his total bleed-out. That is why he is still leading Hynes.
We have to wake up! Incumbants are DOA this November. Only saints like Jesse White are going to avoid being purged. Democrats need to either dump their incumbants next month - or lose big in November when all Illinois voters will show the Democratic incumbants the door.
If the Party nominates Hynes, White, Hoffman, Madigan, Miller and Oberman, it has a better chance than if they have Quinn, Giannoulais, White, Madigan, Krishnamoorthi and Kelly.
Illinois is Democratic. But it will not remain Democratic if the Party nominates it’s incumbants and those with ties to incumbants.
I think Cidy Lou is on to something. I’d love to see how much Quinn’s support among women voters has dropped since November.
- Big Policy Nerd - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 11:36 am:
-Quinn has absorbed everything that Hynes has thrown at him-
That is one way to look at it. Politics ain’t bean bag. I guess we will find out today, but we need to know how much $$$ both sides got left in the bank. Quinn can come in with a big negative buy and a huge positive buy and might be able to bring his numbers back and drop Hynes back down.
There is no doubt that Hynes’ ads have been effective, but does he have any money left to do a positive spot and if so, will it get drowned out in the clutter??? While Hynes has ran a purely negative campaign for the last three weeks and it has worked in dropping the Governor’s numbers, what will happen to Hynes if he gets a dose of his own medicine.
If you got women on tv, especially older women talking about dead bodies buried on top of each other at Burr Oak and getting scammed in a pre-paid funeral services ponzi scheme, that will take its toll too. Couple that with hits on ethical problems and some shady Rezko style fund raising practices, it is going to be quite a show.
Also, If Dillard or McKenna or even Brady got any money left, they would be wise to learn from this example and go nuclear on Jim Ryan. It’s a game of chicken on the GOP side right now.
- Objective Dem - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 11:38 am:
I agree with you that questioning Quinn’s integrity is not a good campaign tactic for Hynes.
However, I do think Quinn is being hurt by the view that he is primarily interested in getting elected. Needless to say Quinn has always been a bit of an outsider in Illinois politics. A large part of his appeal is a view that he was always looking out for the average Joe rather than his own political ambition. (I don’t think he was ever known as a good administrator) But this idea is largely based on reducing the size of the statehouse which goes back almost 40 years. His behavior as Governor now makes people think of him as just another politician trying to get re-elected. As a result he loses this strong part of his appeal and he is left to run on his competency and leadership.
I think VM is right on point with the above comment.
- JonShibleyFan - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 11:44 am:
Quinn can respond to this as angrily as he wants, there is simply no return message that hits back as hard as this.
For his part, Andy McKenna may have been too cute by half. If his hammering helps Hynes win -and the possibility is obviously very real- the GOP nominee won’t have a wounded and depleted Quinn campaign to kick around.
They’ll have an energized Hynes campaign that has shown a ton of mettle in a race in which they were once written off, and that is not vulnerable to very many damaging lines of attack.
It is one of the worst kept secrets amongst the old Chicago Political class that Tom Hynes, Dan Hynes’ father, is the recipient of two and probably three taxpayer funded pensions. He gets well over $100,000 a year in taxpayer funded pension payments. If someone wanted to hit Hynes on that and why he doesn’t support pension reform, it could be an easy media hit.
Hynes’s ad is intended to scare voters. There is one word for that: despicable.
Quinns response has been to blame Randle. There is one word for that: cowardly.
Here is what I would like to see: A real debate about how best to reduce a bloated prison population that is helping to bankrupt the state. Maybe if the press demanded it (instead of pandering to resentment and fear) we would get it.
Quinn’s on the air with his “another negative ad from Dan Hynes” spot. I saw it yesterday and today.
In my mind, that ad only reinforces the negative Hynes ad, to Quinn’s detriment.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 12:58 pm:
If you got women on tv, especially older women talking about dead bodies buried on top of each other at Burr Oak and getting scammed in a pre-paid funeral services ponzi scheme, that will take its toll too.— Big Policy Nerd
I think women are a lot more perceptive than you may realize, which may help to explain why women have been cold on Quinn pretty much all along.
As a woman and one who has been personsally impacted by Burr Oak, I would not appreciate Quinn or any other politician using my pain to bolster his campaign prospects. I would take big offense to it, and would hope that the media would rightly call Quinn or anyone else on it. After all, Quinn has had months to go into these lines of attack, but didn’t. When it becomes politically expedient or necessary for him to do only then does he start these lines of attack? Gee…thanks for caring so much about Burr Oak families, bud. Wow! you really care a lot, don’t you? Way to go, champ!
Looks like Governor Quinn is the “Martha Coakley” of the Illinois Primary, his campaign has been terrible!
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 1:08 pm:
yeah you’re right, but in all fairness Tom Hynes was elected to his positions and is therefore entitled to collect all of his pensions. Besides, i thought hynes said moving foward he would work to eliminate stuff like that?
and, it’s interesting that Quinn appoints a retired Chicago police officer to a cushy newly created state job. Is this not an example of double-dipping, in some fashion, too? McCotter was on the police force for 37 years. let’s say he started when he was in his early 20s or so. so by his late 50s to mid 60s he retired. hmmm… now he is making $115K from the state.
Pat Quinn has proved he is a leader. Hynes hasnt proved anything other than he is one nasty person. I will take Quinn’recond and personality anytime.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 1:42 pm:
Quinn appears to have weathered the storm. To still be up by 7 points in a poll conducted BY your opponent seems pretty good, especilly, after the blistering he’s been under.
Truthfully, it’s amazing to me that a guy can campaign on raising taxes and be subjected to so much negativity and still be leading. It is either a testament to the voters trust in him or a extreme dislike for his opponent.
- Will County Woman - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 2:09 pm:
nice try phineas, but Quinn was leading by a significant double-digit margin in early Dec, or so said the tribune. this has now been whitled down 7 point lead with an error margin of 3-4. percent Quinn hasn’t been campaigning on raising taxes, the media has forced him into talking about it again despite his best efforts to lay low on the subject until after feb 2nd. you heard/saw his state of state last week, didn’t you? it had everything in it, with the kitchen sink (aka the budget)getting one quickie/glossed over mention. that said, quinn is still the front-runner.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 2:15 pm:
I think voters are know Quinn wants to raise taxes and, if not, the McKenna ad ever 5 minutes certainly reminds them and he is still up.
How is it that people are not sick of Hynes crowing about the early release scandal? Watching the debate, I seriously thought about throwing the remote the 10th time he brought it up (did anyone count? It had to be at least 10 times). Great for the ads, yes, but what does this have to do with digging the state out from under? How about some content?
(BTW, the drama of his ads is a great contrast to his complete lack of affect at the debate. It’s not quite Dan Quayle deer-in-the-headlights, but there was definitely something robotic about it.)
MarkMac is exactly right. Hynes has spent a lot of time going after Quinn, but has never articulated what he himself plans to do any better. So far he certainly hasn’t impressed in his time in office as comptroller. The state’s finances in ashambles. Obviously there are extenuating circumstances there, but he sure hasn’t done anything to stop the bleeding. Hynes isn’t going to win a Democratic Primary in Illinois by tearing down his opponent. It just doesn’t work that way.
An effective 15 second ad, and the McKenna attacks on the tax increase and the Hynes’ “willie Horton” adds make Quinn vulnerable. It will be close and the outcome will probably depend on the weather. Feb 2 in Illinois no predicting or polling Mother nature.
This Race is OVER! When the cook county democrats, along with Speaker Madigan and Senator Cullerton are all endorsing or covertly helping QUinn, THE FIX IS IN… One does not need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.
Looks like Rich finally has his readers drinking the Kool Aid. Look at Hyne’s bio next to Quinn’s.
Dan Hynes has NO significant experience in business, government or politics. Madigan will eat him alive.
Madigan got his way all of last year, as is his usual practice as Speaker.
Remember the press conference that Madigan gave admonishing Quinn for flip-flopping and warning Quinn that he himself was hurting his own credibility in Springfield. Madigan rarely holds press conferences, but Quinn’s odd and questionable behavior compelled the Speaker to hold one, Quinn’s so-called significant political and government experience, notwithstanding.
Quinn camp seems/sounds a little worried, eh? Quinn still holds a lead, albeit significantly less than what he had last month. Nothing to lose sleep over, yet.
the gov will keep fighting–but the polls are very bad news.. we need carolyn brown hodge back to get things back on track.
- Richard Afflis - Wednesday, Jan 20, 10 @ 8:52 pm:
Regardless whether Hynes or Quinn win the primary, the winner has ONE clear advantage: the party will unify around the winner. Having seen last night’s debate (or mud-slinging contest and drinking game ammunition)neither of these candidates impressed me. Even still, the democrats will unify.
On the other hand, the republicans can’t seem to do that. I think to this day that if Obderweiss had “manned up” in 2006 and at least gave a statement of support for the nominee, we would not have had to remove a sitting governor from office. We will never find out for sure.
I only say this to say it really does not matter how tattered Quinn is or how little of a resume Hynes has. The democrats will be unified in November for whoever wins the nomination. The most serious question in this race is whether the republicans can or are willing to learn from their past mistakes and unite behind the nominee. If they do not, the democrat will be declared the winner within an hour of the polls closing.
Hynes needs a stronger message linking the bungled early release program to Quinn’s inept budget and fiscal management. Over the last year Quinn has dug the budget hole deeper!!! Democrats can’t afford to carry Quinn on their backs next fall.
[…] IL-Gov: Is The Democratic Primary Legitimately Competitive? A new internal poll for Democratic state Comptroller Dan Hynes implies that his primary challenge to incumbent Governor Pat Quinn may well be tightening noticeably. Hynes’ poll claims that Quinn, who had a twenty-ish point lead in public polling several weeks back, now leads Hynes by just seven points (44-37). He also claims that the campaign has exacted a pound of flesh from Quinn’s favorables, which are net negative. The campaign has been occasionally nasty and, without question, expensive. Both Quinn and Hynes spent over $5 million in the last half of 2009 alone. The primary is now less than two weeks away, coming around on February 2nd. The GOP primary, meanwhile, is a coin flip, with several viable candidates, including former state AG Jim Ryan, state senator Kirk Dillard, and former state GOP chairman Andy McKenna. […]