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Dillard won’t concede today - *** UPDATED x2: Commenters are live-blogging returns and new Brady guesstimate ***

Tuesday, Feb 16, 2010

* 12:23 pm - Sen. Kirk Dillard told Crain’s that he won’t concede the GOP governor’s race today, even though we’re going to get a new total in the race by the end of the day…

…Mr. Dillard said the date that counts is Feb. 23. That’s the date by which the county clerks have to report all of their numbers — absentee and otherwise — to the State Board of Elections.

“I’m going to wait” until then, he said, “wait until they send the real numbers to Springfield on the 23rd and make sure all of them have been double-checked. […]

While putting off any possible concession, Mr. Dillard did seem to confirm political talk that he won’t seek a recount unless the official tally cuts his margin to about 100 or less.

Asked specifically about 100, Mr. Dillard replied, “That might be a good number to go off of.”

*** UPDATE 1 *** Some diligent commenters are live-blogging local election board results as they come in. Help them out if you can.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Pantagraph

On a day that saw county election officials throughout the state putting the final touches on vote tallies from the Feb. 2 election, it appeared as though state Sen. Kirk Dillard made some inroads into Brady’s 420 vote lead.

Unofficial tallies in Cook and DuPage counties showed Dillard gaining more than 120 votes from absentee and provisional ballots.

While that number could be significant since Dillard ran stronger than Brady in the Chicago area, Brady told reporters in Springfield he could offset that gain with additional votes being tallied in downstate counties.

I think we have a better number in comments.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


55 Comments
  1. - Mail Man - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:45 pm:

    Dillard: Net +58 from Dupage
    Dillard: Net +25 from Will


  2. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:47 pm:

    Winnebago outside of Rockford posted an updated total

    +4 for Dillard

    If the two by mailman are correct, then Brady’s lead which I had at 336 this morning is now 249.

    train111


  3. - Potted Plant - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:52 pm:

    I did not vote for Senator Dillard but his wishes seem very reasonable.


  4. - Antiochian - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:58 pm:

    Per Willard, Clerk in Lake County, total of 304 republican votes being processed as we speak. If totals come out like election day, should see roughly an additional 53 votes for Dillard and 17 votes for Brady, or a net pick up of 36 votes for Dillard. Will see if the numbers hold up.


  5. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 12:58 pm:

    Mail Man and I both made a mistake.

    Dillard was + 58 in DuPage, but Brady is +12 making the net gain 46.

    Will as reported above is correct.

    Winnebago outside of Rockford is Dillard +6 and Brady +4 giving a net gain of 2 to Dillard

    Totalled up this gives us +73 for Dillard dropping my earlier figure of 336 down to a lead of 263.

    train111


  6. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:02 pm:

    Dear Rocky Wirtz — Outstanding work up to now. This is your year, if you get another goalie. Please do so.

    Dear Jerry Reinsdorf — Go all in for Lebron in next year’s free agency sweepstakes. The masochists currently selling out the United Center for your weak product will gladly pay another $20 a ticket to see a new Bull’s dynasty built around James, Rose and Noah.

    Dear Carlos Zambrano — push yourself away from the dinner table every once in a while, take your meds and start earning your #1 Starter contract.

    Dear Ozzie Guillen — now that the Juiced Player Era is over, let’s see some real Ozzie Ball.

    Dear Frank Thomas — Thanks for the memories and for playing by the rules. You were one of the best right-handed hitters of all time.

    Dear Mark McGwire — stop your crying and just go away, again. And take that lying Tony LaRussa with you.

    Dear Ted Phillips, Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith — enjoy your last year in Chicago.


  7. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:04 pm:

    Amen, word. Amen.


  8. - George - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:07 pm:

    Umm, word… *cough* wrong post?


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:07 pm:

    LOL

    I missed that too. Hilarious.


  10. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:12 pm:

    Let me say that I’m pretty dumfounded by the number of Illinois Counties that do not even have a basic website. Wow!!!!

    Correction on Winnebago County:
    Dillard +8
    Brady +6

    Net of +2 for Dillard remains the same.

    train111


  11. - George - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:13 pm:

    I think McKenna can pull this out.


  12. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:14 pm:

    Mea culpa. I think I got it right now.


  13. - George - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:17 pm:

    Rich - can the Dillard camp send us their spreadsheet that shows where their numbers were coming into today (the 300-ish number)?


  14. - RMW Stanford - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:19 pm:

    Brady was +6 in Tazewell County to Dillard +4


  15. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:21 pm:

    McHenry County has updated its total:

    Dillard +1
    Brady unchanged.

    Not much ground made up there,

    With Tazewell added in. Brady gains 1 net vote so the lead is now 264.

    train111


  16. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:27 pm:

    What a squeaker. Dillard is going to have a real tough call.


  17. - Irrational Exuberance - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:39 pm:

    Dear Rocky Wirtz — No guarantees this is your year or even any other year. One additional goalie (player) solidifies nothing.

    Dear Jerry Reinsdorf — Save your money and learn from your previous spending fiascos - that wrongly thought you’re always just one player away from a dynasty - no matter what the sport.

    Carlos Zambrano — already reported to camp two weeks ago having lost weight.

    Dear Ozzie Guillen — the Juiced Player Era is never over - whether it be amphetamines, steroids or hgh in this century.

    Dear Frank Thomas — Until Edgar gets in, you’re on the HOF bench.

    Dear Mark McGwire — thanks for being the only one at the Congressional hearing that did not outright lie.

    Dear Ted Phillips, Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith — Chicago will never make a rational coaching decision.


  18. - adolfo - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:42 pm:

    Champaign County: +12 for Brady, +6 for Dillard and Ryan, +2 each for Proft, Adrzejewski, and McKenna; +1 for Schillerstrom


  19. - Segatari - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 1:50 pm:

    Sangamon County’s listed numbers -

    KIRK W. DILLARD . . . . . . . . 6,540 38.99
    BILL BRADY . . . . . . . . . . 4,471 26.65


  20. - Jim Leach - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:01 pm:

    Dillard picked up a net four votes in Sangamon County; seven additional votes for him, three for Brady


  21. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:02 pm:

    ===Dillard picked up a net four votes in Sangamon County===

    Oof. He needed way more than that.


  22. - krj - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:07 pm:

    Champaign County:
    Brady: +12
    Dillard: +6

    Net: Brady adds six votes to his lead


  23. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:07 pm:

    Try avoiding double-posts, please. Thanks.


  24. - Alex Carbo - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:24 pm:

    Dillard is about cooked. Most of his big pick-up options are counted. The margin will probably end up around 300 or more.


  25. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:25 pm:

    I’m hearing that we may not get some totals until tomorrow. Bloomington, for instance.


  26. - krj - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:30 pm:

    Here’s my updated total — Anyone disagree?

    Starting Lead: 336 (from comment #2)

    Dillard: (Nets) (+78, +114 with guesstimate)
    Dupage: +46
    Will: +25
    Winnebago: +2
    (Guesstimate?) Lake: +36
    McHenry: +1
    Sangamon: +4

    Brady: (Nets) (+8)
    Tazewell: +2
    Champaign: +6

    Thus:
    Without Lake Guesstimate: Brady is up 266
    With Lake Guesstimate: Brady is up 230


  27. - RMW Stanford - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:32 pm:

    I was under the impression that the city of Bloomington counted theirs today but the rest of McLean county does not count until tomorrow


  28. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:32 pm:

    You forgot places like Bloomington and other Downstate areas. I’m figuring Brady ends up somewhere in the high 200s, maybe even 300. We’ll see.


  29. - George - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:33 pm:

    That’s super close.


  30. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:34 pm:

    It ain’t close enough.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:35 pm:

    lol …. Bloomington; Brady’s River Wards …


  32. - Keep Smiling - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:36 pm:

    Is there anything from Cook, or have they already been counted there?


  33. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:38 pm:

    A few more

    Fulton:
    Dillard +2, Brady unchanged
    Pike:
    No change for either
    Shelby:
    No change for either.

    Counting in Sangamon, Champaign, and the above, Brady’s stays the same at 264.

    train 111


  34. - Antiochian - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:49 pm:

    Lake is In:

    Dillard +43
    Brady +19

    Net Pick up of +24 for Dillard


  35. - BigW - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:54 pm:

    I believe that the Republicans that ran for office are all Gentleman and have shown great integrity……..Lets go and win the State back!


  36. - krj - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 2:59 pm:

    Of the ones mentioned on this comment blog:
    Starting Lead: 336 (from comment #2)
    Total Today: Dillard: +96

    Breakdown:
    Dillard: (Nets) (+104)
    Dupage: +46
    Will: +25
    Winnebago: +2
    Lake: +24
    McHenry: +1
    Sangamon: +4
    Fulton: +2

    Brady: (Nets) (+8)
    Tazewell: +2
    Champaign: +6

    Neither:
    Pike: No Change
    Shelby: No Change

    Thus:
    Brady is up 240 overall


  37. - Brady is my Man - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:03 pm:

    where is the plus 96 lead coming from at the start of the day? did the AP change their numbers?


  38. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:07 pm:

    The lead is coming from comparing results released on various county elections board sites compared to the AP results from just after the elections.

    train111


  39. Pingback Kirk Dillard Closes Bill Brady’s Lead, Won’t Concede Today | Twitmerlin - News, Celebs Gossip, Social Media - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:16 pm:

    […] With all counties required to post their final vote tallies today, Kirk Dillard is making up ground–if slowly–and insists that he won’t concede defeat to Bill Brady. […]


  40. - Jon Zahm - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:26 pm:

    Henry County is only counting 3 votes today. I will post those when I have them. Brady will likely gain one or two of those.


  41. - Chad - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:34 pm:

    Having worked with the new machines quite a bit, I can say there will have to be some type of significant accounting error or big-time fraud in the counties to turn back a 200+ victory. Recounts are, essentially, running everything back through the machines — only there are no chads to fall-out or block the old light sensors like in the “good old days”. Ah yes, when you could run a precinct stack of punch cards through 3 times and get 3 different results. In the paperless machines, there really isn’t anything left to argue about — you just print-out the same old results on each machine and add ‘em up again. Discounting an accounting error, there would have to be a structural problem, like a misunderstanding about which stack of provisional ballots to count (for instance a reject stack instead of a valid stack). This looks real tough for Dillard.


  42. - OneMan - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:43 pm:

    Besides for the observation of what a cool county name Henry is…

    It appears that Kane may have updated numbers up, but I don’t know what their ‘old’ numbers were.


  43. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:47 pm:

    Peoria County (not including the city is now official.

    Dillard +45
    Brady +22

    Net Dillard +23

    Ogle has a post 2/2 count up as well

    Dillard +1
    Brady +2

    Net from both of these is Dillard +22

    Brady’s lead 218

    train111


  44. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 3:57 pm:

    Toss on the pile updated returns from Cass, Scott, and Clark Counties which show no change for either Dillard or Brady.

    train111


  45. - krj - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:11 pm:

    Train: Where did you get Peoria County #s? They seem to be very contradictory to their vote counts.

    I found this from the PJ Star:
    http://www.pjstar.com/news/x626060122/Deadline-today-for-ballots-in-governors-race

    This gives Dillard a net + 3.


  46. - Been There - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:11 pm:

    Chad @ 3;34. You are right that it is different than the old days and it will be tough to pick up a couple of hundred votes but there are other factors. There could be a fight over which provisional ballots got counted. There will always be two sides to decisions like that. Also, when the machines are not working correctly at the polling place (which in Chicago even a half percent is over a dozen polling places) there is always questions over the “paper trail”. Not that they would have been trying to steal the GOP election but there were some late night mix ups that would have had County Board President implications if it happened to be closer. But those votes were not needed and there was no controversy, but that doesn’t mean the GOP votes didn’t get mixed up inadvertently.


  47. - Legal Eagle - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:22 pm:

    Any truth to the story that some Cook County memory cards were not working properly and that there were jams of the back up paper trail?


  48. - Downstate - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:42 pm:

    Williamson’s new numbers today have Brady +3, Dillard with no gain, Ryan up +2 and McKenna +4, for a Brady net gain of 3 over Dillard.


  49. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 4:43 pm:

    Dillard was just on Channel 7 Chicago. He said he “doesn’t like recounts, but when it’s this close…”

    Basically, didn’t rule it out. What a tough call he has to make. I’m betting he doesn’t ask for a recount.


  50. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:03 pm:

    krj

    My numbers are for Peoria County only. I got those from a 2/16 report from the Peoria County Board of elections. The Peoria Journal Star numbers may be from the City of Peoria which has a seperate elcetion board.
    I added the 2/16 Peoria County numbers to the 2/2 City of Peoria numbers and then subtracted the AP total for Peoria County from them to get my changes.
    Again, my numbers are for the County only. Those numbers may be from the City of Peoria. My speculation only however.

    train111


  51. - votecounter - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:06 pm:

    Dillard will not ask for a recount, this was his race to lose and he did. He has a tin ear, he is finished statewide.


  52. - Dnstateanon - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:07 pm:

    ===Williamson’s new numbers today have Brady +3, Dillard with no gain==
    Now that you have counted all of the counties that Dillard won in there are still 70 or more downstate counties to count that Brady won in so he will bring the net number back up by what if he averaged 2 votes net a county it would be 140 votes.


  53. - Dnstateanon - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:11 pm:

    Train: Where did you get Peoria County #s? They seem to be very contradictory to their vote counts.

    I found this from the PJ Star:
    http://www.pjstar.com/news/x626060122/Deadline-today-for-ballots-in-governors-race

    This gives Dillard a net + 3.

    This is for Chicago


  54. - alioneye - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 5:19 pm:

    Just heard WDWS in Champaign say Brady’s campaign puts the lead at 225 with about half of counties in.


  55. - Dutch - Tuesday, Feb 16, 10 @ 6:31 pm:

    The City of Bloomington’s count is as follows: Brady 5 to Dillard’s 3. McLean County counts tomorrow.

    Logan County totals were: Brady 3 to Dillard’s 0

    Brady nets 5 votes


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