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Question of the day
Tuesday, Nov 2, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * From Saturday’s Fox News poll of those who have already voted…
From PPP’s Saturday-Sunday poll of those who have already voted…
* From the Fox News poll of people who have not yet voted…
PPP’s results for those who have not voted…
* The Question: Have you changed your mind on any of your election day predictions? Explain now or forever hold your peace. Comments will be closed at 7 o’clock.
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- Jo - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:24 am:
Spike the ball at the 10 yard line…
- downstate hack - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:29 am:
No cahnge
Brady by 3%
Kirk by 4%
Dold, Schilling,and Kinziner winners.
- RMW Stanford - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:29 am:
Not really looks like about what you expect, though if the PPP numbers are an accurate reflection of early voting that is bad for Quinn
- Montrose - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:31 am:
Something is off with the Fox poll on people yet to vote. Cohen has 47%?
Also, how can you be undecided if you already voted?
All that being said, I still think Quinn wins be a handful of votes, and it is not declared for a couple weeks.
- Who Cares - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:32 am:
I had written off Pat Quinn weeks ago but starting to think he’ll pull it off but just barely.
- Heartless Libertarian - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:35 am:
What is the ratio of early voters to election day voters? Because if it is 1:4 or a greater variance, I still say Brady walks away victorious 46-40.
- (618)662 Dem - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:35 am:
Close races in Illinois go to the Dems. The Republican machine is not as strong and that will be their downfall in GOTV efforts.
My call
Quinn 46.5/ Brady 44.8
Alexi 47.6/ Kirk 45.9
Race won’t be called until next week and then look for Brady and Kirk to tag team a legal remedy for their loses, this thing could go into December.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:36 am:
===Cohen has 47%?===
Typo. Tired eyes. Fixed.
- Retired Non-Union Guy - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:36 am:
Nope. Still expect a Silent Majority blowout.
- Bakersfield - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:37 am:
Brady, closer than expected, Kirk by a point or two more than expected. Seals, Foster, Kinzinger (not a surprise) and Schilling. GOP +61 in the house, 48 in the Senate.
- Wally - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:39 am:
Brady 45%
Quinn 43%
- Heartless Libertarian - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:39 am:
Downstate turnout looks huge, and the city looks not as good. Collar counties look to have good turnout as well. No way, no way… despite what any polling says, is Quinn going to win. His voters aren’t coming out. And the Brady voters are out en mass.
- Jo - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:40 am:
Brady/Quinn - 175 yds passing, 1TD, 4 INT
- Park - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:43 am:
My only prediction was 8% for Cohen. Looks a little high. Maybe 5%.
Just voted. Interesting Ballot….Republicans in first ballot position for all races. Didn’t know that could happen.
- (618)662 Dem - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:46 am:
Downstate, for better or worse, doesn’t elect state-wide office holders in Illinois. If it did we would have had Gov. Poshard in 1998.
- JBilla - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:48 am:
Whitney will keep the Greens viable.
- Aldyth - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:49 am:
If Quinn manages to win, it will be because of the suburban women’s vote. It won’t be that they’re voting for Quinn, they’ll be voting against Brady.
- Wally - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:49 am:
This time, downstate propels Brady to victory.
- ChrisChicago82-Independent - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:49 am:
I’m actually going to change one of my picks.
Well… actually the percentage.
Yesterday I said Kirk would win by 1.2%. I’m starting to rethink that now based upon information I’m seeing in regards to turnout.
I am still picking Kirk, but by 2%, which would be just enough to avoid a recount.
- Ghost of John Brown - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:50 am:
I have only reconfirmed my belief that polling is at BEST an art and definitely not a science. It is probably closer to alchemy.
- Wumpus - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:55 am:
THanks for the update on the guy who was hit by the car. I heard they arrested the driver. I hope he is okay.
- Anon 7 - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:57 am:
- (618)662 Dem -
=== Close races in Illinois go to the Dems. ===
Tell that to Neil Hartigan.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 11:58 am:
===Tell that to Neil Hartigan. ===
Tell that to Adlai Stevenson III.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:00 pm:
No change…..
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:01 pm:
OneMan, was that an ironic statement? lol
- Jo - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:05 pm:
I seem to recall a story by Rich (or elsewhere) several years ago that talked about Blagojevich in 2006 - whose internal polls showed him with a solid 8% lead, but we went on to spend another few million to try and get to a 10% “mandate”.
He came up just short, but I do remember public polls at the time had the race much closer.
Long story short - I generally trust candidates and their campaigns who know what they are doing with their internal poll numbers (not what they “leak” out or tout publicly - their real internals). They know their constituency, and they know who their 1s and 2s are.
So, if the recent report about Brady setting up “transition” meetings in the past few weeks is to be believed, then he must have some good internals going. Or… he has an incompetent campaign. We will find out which is which soon enough.
- (618)662 Dem - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:07 pm:
I will tell it to both of you. The Republican Party in Illinois is a shell of its former self. I will eat crow tomorrow, if I am wrong, but I think you have to go with the horse that has run the best races recently.
- Will Watcher - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:12 pm:
On the Kilbride retention race, am now thinking that the anti-incumbent fever, the 10% group that always votes against retention of judges, and the JustPac campaign might all combine to bring the Justice below the 60% necessary for retention. People that I have talked to who have no connection with the jusgice system are mentioning the race. Probably not a good sign for the Justice.
- Aaron - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:13 pm:
Can craziness be a prediction? Just wondering because I think many states including ours especially are in for a crazy and long night. Posted more specific one’s heret.
- Frank - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:15 pm:
==Just voted. Interesting Ballot….Republicans in first ballot position for all races. Didn’t know that could happen.=====
I’m pretty sure that ballot position rotates every general election
- Pelon - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
(618)- Normally, I would agree with you and pick the Dem in a close race. I think the greater enthusiasm on the part of Republicans wins this one, though. There just aren’t any statewide Democratic candidates that will drive turnout. Alexi and Quinn both have high unfavorables, White and Madigan have no chance of losing, and the average voter doesn’t care about the Treasurer or the Comptroller.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:20 pm:
No irony, just sticking with my earlier prediction. If anything I think Hultgren might do a bit better using some turnout stuff I have heard, then again a big race for a county board seat with an independent will have an impact on that one a bit as well.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:22 pm:
- (618)662 Dem - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:07 pm:
I will tell it to both of you. The Republican Party in Illinois is a shell of its former self. I will eat crow tomorrow, if I am wrong, but I think you have to go with the horse that has run the best races recently.
****************************
I’m not going to say with 100% certainty that the GOP is going to have success today. But I have a good feeling about it.
As for the party being a “shell” of its former self, yes, we had some lean years, thanks to George Ryan, Jack Ryan, Alan Keyes, and other Illinois Republicans. We’ve also been on the losing side of national trends. But in the past couple of years, I’ve been very involved with and seen firsthand some serious rebuilding efforts. In some parts of the state, the party is stronger and more organized than it has been in years, and lots of new talent and new faces are getting involved. So I wouldn’t write off the other side just yet.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:23 pm:
I’m sticking with my prediction of Brady — I forget the margin I predicted but more than a squeaker. I think the enthusiasm gap is real.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:24 pm:
===I’m pretty sure that ballot position rotates every general election ===
It’s decided by lottery.
- MrJM - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:25 pm:
1) I originally thought early voting would benefit Dems in this election. But (my admittedly limited and anecdotal) evidence is that Whitney supporters who waited to cast their ballots until election day are casting their votes for the only candidate who could beat Bill Brady. No sense of how that’s working out for Alexi.
2) I thought that bad weather in Chicago-land would tip the contests to Kirk and Brady. The weather is great and I’m not sure it will have much effect on the outcome.
– MrJM
- Highland, IL - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:25 pm:
Anonymous - still waiting for the GOP to build itself here in the Metro East.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:28 pm:
===still waiting for the GOP to build itself here in the Metro East. ===
Madison County is gonna surprise you I think.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:31 pm:
===but we went on to spend another few million to try and get to a 10% “mandate”.===
He didn’t spend a few million. And he was hoping to get to 50 percent plus one. And the Tribune had him leading JBT 43-29 in mid October.
===He came up just short, but I do remember public polls at the time had the race much closer.===
He won by 10 points.
Use the Google before you post from now on.
- Jo - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:32 pm:
Are you predicting a certain pumpkin-headed loss, Rich?
- Jo - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:33 pm:
That’s right - it was getting to 50%. I knew it was something about a mandate.
- Gregor Samsa - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:39 pm:
No, I’m sticking with my prediction that when it comes down to the actual booth, more people are going to hold their nose and vote for Quinn than Brady. I Think Alexi is going to *just* squeek by and probably have to undergo a recount before he ultimately wins. People are going to vote for the recall amendment as their main protest vote. And the polls are going to be all over the map today.
- Park - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:39 pm:
Thanks on Ballot position info. I guess party by party, not office by office? Seemed more noticeable with long ballot (even in DuPage), and multiple parties.
- Jo - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:39 pm:
And there were a lot of other ones that showed the race much closer.
- Sugar - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:52 pm:
Speaking of the Metro East - I think your cavalry is on the way. Jersey, Bond, Monroe, etc. are all going to be the brightest red you have ever seen and I think St. Clair and Madison are in play for the GOP this year. The primary numbers for the Repubs there were huge. Absolutely huge.
- chiatty - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 12:53 pm:
Though it pains me to type these words, I think Kirk and Brady will both win. Kilbride will win his retention bid. Adam will keep his hands of those old ladies’ “soshacurity” after beating the overmatched Halvorson. The scientist and businessman will eke out a win over Hultgren and Dan Seals will finally win a race. Nationally, the Republicans will pick up 48 seats in the House and eight in the Senate. Harry Reid barely beats that crazy opponent of his and Christine O’Donnell goes back to her coven, while Lisa Murkowski squeaks out a win over Palin…er…Miller, who tries to have the Election Officials chained to a desk. John Boehner will be elected Smoker of the House by a wide margin for his brief, two-year reign, while Dick Durbin pretends to be happy to not be in charge of the Senate.
- Sporty41 - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 1:26 pm:
===Tell that to Neil Hartigan. ===
===Tell that to Adlai Stevenson III. ===
Tell that to Kirk Dillard
- railrat - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 1:44 pm:
I look for a great GOP showing I’m out here in the western counties Kendall, DeKalb, Livingston to the River and one thing to take into account almost ALL the crops are in so anyone involved in the agriculture industry is caught up way ahead of schedule!! A lot of pickup trucks around the polling places I’ve visited. And I’m sure thats the case downstate !!
- Richard Afflis - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 1:45 pm:
I am sticking with my prediction that Bobby Rush will be re-elected. I don’t care what the pundits say on this one!
- Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 2:13 pm:
I’d originally said Quinn and Alexi and the Republicans take the state house. I now say Brady and Alexi and the Republicans fall just short in the house. Brady is a huge motivation for Republican conservatives. Lord knows what it will be like in January. What happens if they crash the pension system without reforming it and then we’re all on the hook for $12bn, $13bn a year come 2016?
@railrat. What’s so Republican about a pickup truck?
- Way Way Down Here - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
Ang Chi: Not the truck, but the farmer that’s driving it.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 2:55 pm:
No. The national trend is massive GOP, and Illinois tracks the country pretty closely, no matter what the “Blue State” excuse makers will tell you. You now, the guys who gave you Alan Keyes.
Put it this way, if the GOP doesn’t win big in Illinois, they, as or organization and an idea, have a lot of explaining to do.
- VoterUSA - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:20 pm:
No Change here…Alexi, Quinn and Bean….we will find out by the weekend who won the Senate race.
- DuPage Dave - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 3:55 pm:
I am having myself put into a medically-induced coma and scheduled to wake up sometime Thursday. This evening would otherwise be too stressful and nerve-wracking for me.
I voted for Quinn but my prediction is Brady 49 Quinn 47.
- Das Man - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:03 pm:
Quinn by a whisker
- Wally - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:26 pm:
Brady by 2
- LouisXIV - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:31 pm:
I’m inclined to change my prediction for Brady to Quinn by less than 1%. Turn out numbers seem to favor the Dems in Illinois. This is the worst governors race since Poshard/Ryan though. I am so sick if the parties nominating people I can’t stand. I feel the same way about the senate race.
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Nov 2, 10 @ 4:45 pm:
Before: Kirk by 3%, Brady by 2%.
Now: Still think Kirk will win. Turnout decides if Quinn beats Brady, too close for me to call.