Ilya Sheyman 45%
Brad Schneider 27%
John Tree 7%
Vivek Bavda 4%
Not sure 16%
629 likely Democratic primary voters, taken between March 11-14.
* Sheyman’s support appears more solidified…
Is your mind made up to support this candidate, or could you still change your mind?
Ilya Sheyman voters 75% made up 25% could change
Brad Schneider voters 70% made up 30% could change
John Tree voters 47% made up 53% could change
Vivek Bavda voters 49% made up 51% could change
* This race is a lot like the 16th District Republican primary in that there’s a purity argument going on…
Which candidate do you consider more progressive: Ilya Sheyman or Brad Schneider?
Ilya Sheyman 57%
Brad Schneider 25%
They’re equally progressive 8%
Not sure 10%
Some of Brad Schneider’s opponents have criticized him for donating thousands of dollars to Republicans in Congress. Have you heard anything about Brad Schneider’s donations to Republicans?
Not sure 5%
(Those who said ‘yes’:) Does what you’ve heard about Brad Schneider’s donations to Republicans make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not impact your vote?
More likely to vote for Schneider 10%
Less likely 54%
Doesn’t impact your vote 36%
(Those who said ‘no’ or ‘not sure’:) Public records show that Brad Schneider repeatedly donated to Republican candidates for Congress who want to privatize Social Security, end Medicare, and eliminate a woman’s right to choose. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Brad Schneider, or does it not impact your vote?
More likely to vote for Schneider 7%
Less likely 70%
Doesn’t impact your vote 24%
* Schneider is hitting back against the attacks from his Left flank via a TV ad…
The commercial cites an editorial in The Chicago Tribune (which endorsed Schneider) that called some of Sheyman’s criticisms “bogus.” (A Daily Kos blogger argues that the way Schneider is using the “bogus” quote is itself bogus, since the newspaper was seemingly using the term to convey that it disagreed with Sheyman’s criticisms, not to suggest that he was lying.)
Meanwhile, Politico quotes an adviser for the Blue Dog PAC who suggests that Sheyman’s efforts to label Schneider as a conservative Blue Dog Democrat are bogus.
Schneider, who is active in Jewish communal affairs, has said that “90 percent of my donations went to Democrats and 100 percent of my donations went to support the U.S.-Israel relationship.” Indeed, it’s not uncommon for pro-Israel donors to give to members of both parties, but for a Democratic primary candidate this could prove to be a liability.
The race has been painted as a fight between left and center over the Democratic Party’s future. The 25-year-old Sheyman, who has worked for MoveOn.org and Dean’s Democracy for America, is a favorite of the left, garnering the support of former Senator Russ Feingold, various members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus from around the country and the editor of The Nation. But Schneider, whose background is in strategic management consulting and is endorsed by House Majority Whip Steny Hoyer, has been loath to cede the progressive label to Sheyman. Schneider’s commercial refers to him as the “true progressive.” (Sheyman called himself a “proven progressive” in an earlier TV spot.)
“This is our top priority House race of 2012 because, like Elizabeth Warren, Ilya Sheyman is a proven progressive fighter who will be a strong ally in Congress,” PCCC spokesman Neil Sroka said in a statement. “His victory will send a signal to all Democrats across the nation that if you campaign as a bold progressive, grassroots volunteers and donors will have your back and help you achieve victory.”
Winning a primary as “a bold progressive” is one thing. Winning as a bold progressive in the 10th District come November is a whole other concept.
*** UPDATE *** From a press release…
State Representatives Karen May (D-58) and Elaine Nekritz (D-57) have released an open letter urging civility and honesty and condemning distortions made by out-of-state groups.
The letter, stressing the need for party unity to reach the common goal of Democratic victory in the November general election, follows a slew of negative campaign tactics and attacks by Ilya Sheyman and his out-of-state allies against fellow Democratic candidate Brad Schneider.
May and Nekritz also highlight the progressive values of all four primary candidates, writing, “We feel it is also important to emphasize that all the candidates — Vivek Bavda, Brad Schneider, Ilya Sheyman, and John Tree—are pro-choice, pro-environment, and pro-marriage equality. To claim otherwise is simply a distortion of the facts.”
The Schneider campaign has also called on Ilya Sheyman and his out-of-state supporters to apologize for falsely labeling progressive Democrat Brad Schneider as a conservative “Blue Dog Democrat.”
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Primary races draw robocalls, fire fighters: Brad Schneider’s wife phoned my house Monday. Three times. I would have told her to stop, but she was insistent. A robocall, of course. They’re coming fast and furious as candidates, somehow oblivious to just how annoying these calls are, spend good money to alienate weary voters.
* 10th District candidates address partisan gridlock
A Sheyman victory almost guarantees a second term for Dold. The majority of that district is not a moveon type voting group. I have said this here before, these are moderates and ticket splitters who do not react kindly to ideologue candidates on either side.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 4:16 pm:
@mark walker, wordslinger -
No offense, but this isn’t about “purity”. You’re running to represent Democrats in Congress. You’ve supported Republicans over Democrats in the past. Its a fundamental issue. Especially when those Republicans were anti-choice.
As for Schneider’s response:
1. One week of cable t.v. ain’t gonna save you.
2. If you’re defending, you’re losing.
I know many of the folks supporting Schneider. I understand that Sheyman may not be “their kind of Democrat.” But from the polling, he sure looks like the kind of Democrat that can best beat Dold.
I’m a Democrat, and I’ve worked on a few campaigns in the 10th District, and there are few things that are worth pointing out:
-The 10th District still is a purple district, it might be bluer than it used to be, but this simply isn’t a Jan Schakowsky liberal district. Ilya is running as an Occupy Wall St. liberal, and that simply won’t play well with the affluent moderates you need to win the district.
-This strikes me as a bad sample, since the last poll PPP conducted had Ilya leading 23-21. Schneider has been doing paid media for months, and should have built up a big lead by being the only name people were hearing about. Ilya and his allies haven’t sent enough mail to define Schneider this thoroughly as a Republican.
The numbers simply don’t move that quickly when you’re dealing with a low spending down-ballot race like this one.
I think Schneider’s donations are a completely valid issue. It’s one thing if someone votes in Republican primaries at some point in their background as Schneider did. It’s one thing if Schneider had some close relationship with a moderate Republican like Mark Kirk for some reason that led him to support Kirk. But donating to out-of-state uber-conservative Republicans like Sen. Mike Johanns in 2008? Unless Johanns’ opponent was a member of the PLO, I don’t really buy the argument that this donation was just about support for Israel.
Sheyman is a flawed candidate because of his youth and inexperience and perhaps his intransigence, but compared to a muddled messenger without clear convictions like Schneider, Sheyman seems less flawed to me.
It’s a shame that Julie Hamos and Susan Garrett couldn’t be the one running here, but it is what it is.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 4:37 pm:
You say Potato, I say Potato. A primary is a primary. If Brad Schneider wanted to run for Congress as an independent, he could of.
He chose to seek the Democratic nomination. It was foolhardy and naive to think that his contributions to Republicans wouldn’t be an issue.
Sheyman’s raised more money. He was just endorsed by the Sierra Club, a critical endorsement in this district.
I know that Schneider was the favorite pick of a lot of insiders because he’s considered “more electable”. I heard the same argument against Barack Obama four years ago.
Sheyman has run a better campaign, worked harder, been more disciplined, and raised more money. And it shows in the poll.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 4:45 pm:
I, too, would have loved to have seen Garrett run. Or Michael Bond.
Heck, I wish it had been Hamos v. Coulson in 2010.
As for it being a Purple District…I guess that depends on how you define “Purple.”
A moderate Republican who is pro-Israel beats a liberal Democrat who’s support for the Jewish community is questionable.
Dold is not a moderate.
Sheyman is a first-generation Jewish American whose parents were Soviet refugees.
Dold only beat Seals 51-49 in a GOP landslide year. If there’s head-to-head trial heats out there, I haven’t seen them yet, but you can be pretty sure that Sheyman’s campaign has them and Schneider’s. I would think that if Schneider’s polling showed Sheyman can’t beat Dold, he would have released it already.
May and Nekritz also highlight the progressive values of all four primary candidates, writing, “We feel it is also important to emphasize that all the candidates are pro-choice, pro-environment, and pro-marriage equality.”
The point of Ilya Sheyman’s candidacy is that he is all those things AND he knows and cares about the struggles of working people in this country today.
Ilya understands that Job One is rebuilding an economy that works not just for the rich but for all Americans.
In other words, and unlike far too many of those who wear the D label, Ilya Sheyman is from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.
I’m a progressive Democrat. If I were to live in the 10th, I’m not entirely sure I’d vote for Ilya Sheyman, but I’d sure as hell NOT vote for a “Democrat” who has donated substantial sums to Republicans — especially the ones Brad Schneider chose to support.
1. Sheyman’s ad is the first where someone has ever said to me did you see that ad, I don’t like him, but I like it. Note to political types, he uses local well known people like the guy in the apron who runs the most popular restaurant in the district, very very smart.
2. This is absolutely the kind of thing primaries are supposed to be about. Sheyman represents one wing of the party, schneider represents another although he’s lying through his teeth when he claims he’s a progressive. Progressives don’t vote in republican primaries, trash moveon, trash howard dean, donate to mark kirk, donate to prolife gop senators and that’s not counting his financial service sector ties.
3. I would reccomend ellen of the tenth’s blog about this race it shows there are some very real cracks developing in the post 2008 democratic party which is worth watching in this primary and after this coming november for where dems head post obama.
If the chicago media could get its eyes off stupid stories about city budgets for horse protection outfits or patti blago, there’s actually some interesting debates going on about things voters care about-like this race.
Look at it… a young Congresscritter, in the parlance of our times, you know, and he, uh, uh, owes money all over town, including to known lawyers, and that’s cool… that’s, that’s cool, I’m, I’m saying, Joe Walsh needs money, man. And of course they’re going to say that they didn’t get it, because… Joe wants more, man! He’s got to feed the monkey, I mean uh… hasn’t that ever occurred to you, man? Sir?
If Ilya is the nominee then the Dems lose the general. John Porter and Mark Kirk won that district because they are Milktoast moderates much like Brad. It is what plays in that district. We saw not once,not twice, but three times what happens when you run a lefty liberal in the 10th.
A strong progressive against a moderate to conservative Democrat might be a race we need to have, but this is the wrong candidate and the wrong place to have it. Ilya Sheyman may very well win the primary, but the elation of his supporters will be short lived as Bob Dold takes his second term. I have worked in this District for years and do not see the moderate Democrats or any independents flying over to a 25 year old with Sheyman’s background. If nothing else, this race shows that the interference of national progressive organizations, without bothering to study the district, can be disastrous to the outcome they desire.
Shore, thanks for the recommendation to my blog, but I sort of disagree that there are real cracks in the party out here. I think the rift has mostly to do with Sheyman himself, under-qualified and under-experienced. Had Sheyman been a credible candidate, I don’t think we’d be going through any of this and there probably would not be a Brad Schneider or a John Tree running. Their candidacies have more to do with irritation that we’re about to make a terrible mistake in IL-10 just when we could have taken advantage of a new map and a Presidential year.
If Sheyman is a less credible candidate than Brad Schneider and John Tree, why is he outfundraising them? Why is he outpolling them?
I agree with you that Sheyman leaves a lot to be desired as a 25-year-old activist running for Congress. But I just haven’t seen anything from the campaign that Schneider has run or Schneider’s background to demonstrate how he is any more desirable when Sheyman has been outworking Schneider in this district from the beginning. And as for Tree, well he got in WAYYYY too late to make a difference here, other than possibly diluting the anti-Sheyman vote.
Sheyman may very well lose to Dold in November. But I see no reason to believe that candidates so inept that they couldn’t beat a 25-year-old activist in the primary are better equipped to take on Dold.
1. democrats took out new trier which means a lot of their best candidates are now in jan’s district.
2. democrats left a lot of swing voters in the district which means in a decent republican year it’s more like a swing district. that we are even having this conversation about this seat being competitive for democrats tells you how big a chance they missed here.
@hisgirlfriday A primary and a general election are two very different things. A few hundred thousand as Ilya has raised (working really hard to raise it too) is nothing compared to what Bob Dold already has in his coffers without really trying. As for your questions, Tree got in late due to a personal issue and the progressive meme was already taken by Sheyman, no incompetence there. I cannot tell you what Schneider’s issues are.
If Ilya’s really up by 18 points, he sure isn’t behaving like a front-runner. I never knew of a front-runner with that big of a lead fire down at their opponents, mention their opponent’s name, or upset many of the district’s leadership.
Moreover, if he’s up by 18 points, why would the PCCC and MoveOn dump thousands of dollars in the race, especially if there are other national progressives looking for support and money? It just doesn’t smell right.
Pops, he’s 25 and lists sorting mail as a college intern 6 years ago as a key resume credential. Admire it for what it is, which is a guy barely young enough to run for congress with no personal or family wealthy 18 points ahead in a district democrats can’t retake congress without with 120 hours left in the race. that’s better than hastert’s kid did and better than beth coulson did.
I’m really disappointed in springfield democrats. Ohio Republicans can turn a purple state into a 12-4 house gop congresscritter advantage, florida republicans can turn a purple state into a 20-9 advantage, but so far the only slam dunk takeover seat you guys have is the 8th.
YDD - did you want the Democrats to win the 10th or do you think it’s okay to just run another crappy candidate in the fall and allow Dold to stay there for ten years? Oh my Brad Schneider helped some pro-Israel Republicans? Guess what so did 20% of the democrats in that distirct when they voted for Porter / Kirk / Dold over the last 30 years.
Ilya Sheyman is a good fit for the 10th District like my foot is a good fit for a wet diaper.
Schneider may be personality challenged, but Sheyman won’t score over 40% come November. I just hope he doesn’t pull a Seals and we have to see him for the next 6 years all over again.
I agree with what JL said:
“A Sheyman victory almost guarantees a second term for Dold. The majority of that district is not a moveon type voting group. I have said this here before, these are moderates and ticket splitters who do not react kindly to ideologue candidates on either side.”
Coming late to the discussion, but here’s my 2 Cents:
There’s been quite a bit of talk recently on this blog about “low information voters”, which I guess is supposed to denote people who tend to be one issue voters, or people who are mainly disinterested in politics, or usually just vote how someone higher in the party tells them to vote.
One can say many things about the 10th congressional district and commenters on this blog have done so over the years. (Quite often to my dismay– since so much of it, apart from the contributions of those who actually live here, shows very poor understanding of the make-up and complexity of the district.) But here is a fact: the 10th is NOT filled with “low information voters”. This is why I suspect young Ilya’s outside supporters and the unpleasant fire-breathing ads are ultimately going to hurt him very, very badly.
Rich Miller is a person from outside the district who does “get it”. He wrote the truth up at 4:19 PM. People should reread it.
Why do you think a 25-year-old is incapable of casting votes in Congress on healthcare and the war in Iran?
When it comes to healthcare, it’s the Medicare benefits of 25-year-olds that’s going to get cut by Congress before it cuts that of 50-year-olds. And when it comes to a new war in Iran, it’s going to be people closer to 25 years of age on the front lines of that war more than you’re going to see 50-year-olds on the front line.
I understand the age hit in terms of his lack of experience in elective office (for example, Schock was 26 when he ran for Congress but had two terms in the Illinois house and time on the school board under his belt already). But the idea that a 25-year-old can’t have a valid, knowledgeable opinion on issues at all simply by virtue of being 25? That is B.S.
There is a better alternative, John Tree. You can have your progressive and be credible too. I did a little research on the polling metrics. They use D primary pulls from the past. Problem with that is that the new parts of the District were wildly different in primary pulls than the rest of the District because the old Eight was so very Republican for so very long, particularly in the down ballot races. Lots of Democrats used to take Republican ballots just to vote in the races that actually mattered. I’m calling it likely bad sample, but who knows. It will be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday.
Awesome. How could anyone trust a DINO like Schneider who donated over four times to Republicans with winning the 10th? All he’d do is turn off Democrats in the 10th. Sheyman is the way to go and he’s going to be a great Congressman for life in the 10th.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:24 pm:
Yes, I want Democrats to win in the Fall. I understand “conventional wisdom” says that Schneider is a better candidate. He sure ain’t proving it.
Sheyman’s youth is a strength, not a weakness. Given voters attitudes about the integrity of Congress, youth screams integrity.
It would be one thing if he were another Plummer. But apparently he’s not. He can put three sentences together to form an idea.
As for the argument that he’s somehow “too progressive” for the district, I’m not sure what’s so controversial about “the American Dream is worth fighting for.”
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 15, 12 @ 11:27 pm:
Btw, Siriously, last time I checked, Dold was an ideologue.
Yellow Dog, from your perspective on the yellow side of the democrat party, everyone looks like an ideologue. But, Dold has an arsenal of objective scoring outlets (i.e. CQ) that will prove to the voters of the 10th that your supposition is wrong. Love that you admit that extreme ideologues are not good fits for this district, but Ilya is unabashedly that.
YDD - I’m not saying that Sheyman’s youth alone is the problem, but his association with the far left, his borderline anti-Israel statements and the fact that he’s basically never had a job are going to be real problems for the voters in the 10th.
All the Sheyman supporters are ignoring 30 years of history when they tell themsevels that he can be Dold.