* A new poll conducted for Democrat Brad Schneider shows he is tied with Republican freshman incumbent Bob Dold in the 10th CD. From the pollster…
Schneider is in a dead heat with Dold despite the fact that Dold has a greater than two-to-one name identification advantage (79% to 35%).
Not only is Dold’s vote support well below the traditional safe mark of 50% for an incumbent, but other measures of his political support show signs of weakness and vulnerability. Specifically:
o Dold has a favorable rating of just 35% favorable and 31% unfavorable. In the old 10th, where voters know him better, his favorable rating is a few points worse at 35%-34%.
o Dold’s job rating is also tepid. Just 43% rate his performance as “excellent” or “good” while 30% rate his job as “not so good” or “poor.” As with his favorable rating, in the old 10th Dold’s job rating is a little worse at 45%-35%.
After voters hear brief biographical information and positive messages on both candidates (identifying Dold as a pro-choice Republican in the fashion of Mark Kirk who will rein in spending and cut taxes and Schneider as a businessman who will protect Medicare and a woman’s right to choose), Schneider surges ahead of Dold 48% to 41%.
In a race against an incumbent, the structure of the initial vote and who moves is critical. As the table below shows, Schneider firms up his base and takes a decisive lead among Independents. Dold actually loses ground among Independents when voters are better informed about both candidates.
Congressman Dold occupies the most Democratic House seat currently held by a Republican in the country. The new 10th district is comprised of portions of the old 8th, 9th and 10th Congressional Districts. In 2010, the worst year for Democrats in a generation, Dold lost by six points to Dan Seals in the portions of the old 10th that remain in the new 10th. Melissa Bean beat Joe Walsh decisively in the portions of the old 8th that are now in the 10th. The small portion of the new 10th that was in the old 9th is reliably Democratic.
The polling data reinforce the solidly Democratic nature of the new 10th. Specifically:
o President Barack Obama remains popular with a favorable rating of 56%-38% and a job rating of 54%-45%. Moreover, he leads Governor Mitt Romney 55% to 41%.
o The generic vote for Congress is seven points Democratic at 48% to 41%.
o Party identification is nine points Democratic at 47% Democrat and 38% Republican.
If Brad Schneider is able to raise the resources to be competitive in the Chicago media market he is well positioned to take advantage of the weakness of Congressman Dold and the Democratic nature of the new 10th District and pick up the seat for the Democrats.
(A) telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Tenth Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted May 21-23, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
* Meanwhile, the Chicago Retail Merchants Association has a new poll about Mayor Rahm Emanuel. From the pollster…
Chicago Retail Merchants Association (CRMA), a committee of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association (IRMA), has released findings from a poll testing Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s job approval rating, his impact on the business climate, handling of NATO and the debate surrounding a possible strike from Chicago’s teachers union.
The poll finds Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s job approval rating at 64% while 57% or respondents indicate the Mayor has done an excellent/good job improving the city’s business climate. In addition, 78% of Chicagoans reacted positively to Mayor Emanuel’s handling of the NATO summit. Finally, the poll revealed that 71% of respondents believe teachers should wait for an independent report to be issued before they go on strike.
The poll was conducted by We Ask America on Thursday, May 24th collecting responses from 1,267 registered voters with a margin of error of ±2.76%. CRMA serves as the voice of Chicago retailers employing nearly one out of every five people.
“Retailers employ one out of every five people and is an important voice concerning public policy impacting the City of Chicago,” said David Vite, Chicago Retail Merchants Association.
“The poll indicates that Chicagoans give Mayor Rahm Emanuel high marks on a series of public policy issues, including improving the business climate in Chicago which is of great importance to retailers and job creators.”
* 1. Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Mayor Rahm Emanuel is doing?
No Opinion 7.13%
2. How would you rate the job Mayor Rahm Emanuel is doing on improving the business climate in Chicago?
No Opinion 5.80%
3. How do you think Mayor Rahm Emanuel handled the NATO summit?
Great Job 55.56%
Good Job 23.28%
Fair Job 12.15%
Poor Job 5.72%
No Opinion 3.29%
4. Finally, as you may be aware, there is a disagreement between the Chicago Teachers Union and the Chicago Public Schools on a new contract, and the teachers have threatened to go on strike. By law, an independent arbiter will recommend a solution to the impasse on July 16th. However, some are urging teachers to go on strike BEFORE that report comes out. Do you agree or disagree that teachers should wait for that independent report BEFORE going on strike?
No Opinion 7.45%