SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Schilling poll: Bustos trails by 16 points

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

* A Public Opinion Strategies poll of 400 likely voters May 20-22 in Illinois’ 17th Congressional District found that freshman Republican Bobby Schilling is leading Cheri Bustos 51-35. From the pollster

Key Findings

1. Bobby Schilling has worked very hard in his freshman year in Congress, and it shows in the Congressman’s image rating.

In a redrawn district that is approximately half the district Schilling currently represents and half new territory for him, the Congressman has strong name ID (86%) and a solid image of 42% fav/22% unfav. Most encouragingly, Schilling enjoys a 54% fav/28% unfav image in the portions of the new district that he already represents, demonstrating that those who know him best, like him best.

2. Cheri Bustos begins the campaign with a very weak image.

Cheri Bustos’ name ID in the district is at just 51% and her hard name ID is a lackluster 28% (16% fav/12% unfav). In a sprawling district that covers three different media markets, Bustos will have a difficult time increasing her name ID and favorables without a significant investment from her campaign.

3. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by ten points on the Presidential ballot.

President Obama is over 50% and has a double-digit lead (51% Obama/41% Romney) on the Presidential ballot. This margin is down a bit from 2008 when the President won this redrawn district by more than 20 points, but his current ten point advantage demonstrates that, at least at the Presidential level, this new district tilts Democratic.

4. Schilling enjoys a double-digit lead on the ballot and intensity also favors him.

Schilling leads Bustos by 16 points (51% Schilling/35% Bustos) on the ballot. To already be over 50% in a district that is half new to him is a very good sign for Schilling early in this race. Another positive sign for the incumbent is that he also has a double-digit lead on intensity, with 34% of voters saying they would definitely vote for him and just 22% definitely voting for Bustos. Perhaps most impressively, Schilling receives the same level of support in this district as the President. Clearly, while voters in the district are inclined to re-elect President Obama, they also love the job their Republican Congressman is doing and also want to see him re-elected.

The survey had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Downstate - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 11:42 am:

    Pelosi is counting on picking up five congressional seats in Illinois. I believe this was one of them. Johnson’s old seat is going to be an uphill battle for the Dems, and Costello’s seat looks equally tough to hold.


  2. - wordslinger - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 11:51 am:

    Gee, Cheri, I guess you must as well pack it in and go home, lol.

    Schilling sounds like he’s trying to reassure himself more than anything.

    –President Obama is over 50% and has a double-digit lead (51% Obama/41% Romney) on the Presidential ballot.–

    Think those Obama voters are going to pass on Cheri for Schilling?


  3. - Redrum - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 12:03 pm:

    Spin it anyway you want Bob, but come election day “voters” will cast their lots and I fully suspect the outcome will find Schilling clutching his guns, flag and the wrong end of the stick - LOSING!


  4. - thom - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 12:05 pm:

    Look for early media from the Bustos campaign…The “Bottom Line: according to the pollster, who is very good one, “…make no
    mistake, Democrats drew this seat with the goal of making Schilling a one-term Congressman
    and will presumably invest significant resources to do so. In order for Schilling to maintain his
    double-digit lead, the key will be to have the financial resources to define Bustos before she (and
    her national Democratic allies) can define herself.”
    That’s Cheri’s plan - game afoot!


  5. - QcPundit - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 12:22 pm:

    Anyone who suggests that Obama voters won’t vote for a republican are fooling themselves. Check out the election results for Obama and Manzullo, as well as Obama and Schock.

    Obama won Mark Kirk’s district with 64% of the vote, Kirk pulled it home with 54% of the vote in 2008.

    Looks like the IL-17 isn’t such a shoe in for Durbin’s babysitter.


  6. - Doke - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 12:33 pm:

    Strong numbers for Schilling. There is a much greater likelihood Obama voters will vote for Schilling, than Romney voters will vote for Bustos. I have a hard time believing Obama’s numbers will get much better in that district. He is very well-known to the district.


  7. - East Sider - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 12:38 pm:

    Schilling should never be underestimated. He’s a tireless worker and instantly connects with voters when he meets them. He won a district two years ago that was drawn so that a democrat would never lose. Probably the most gerrymandered district in the country.


  8. - Sentinel - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 12:58 pm:

    The bad news for dems in IL congressional races keeps getting worse. Earlier this week a dem poll showed Dold and Schneider tied. Davis is in a strong position in the 13th. Yesterday the dem nominee in the 12th withdrew, and today one of their best hopes is 16 points behind even though Obama is 10 ahead in that district. Downstate is going to be a blood bath for dems in congressional and general assembly races.


  9. - Lil' Enchilada - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 1:27 pm:

    With all the photo-ops Bobby has in the local newspapers it’s no wonder everyone knows his name. I wonder when he has the time to be in Washington he’s at so many photographed events.


  10. - slinger - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 1:41 pm:

    This poll will look pretty in those fancy mailers Schilling wastes money on. You know, the ones he railed against when he was a candidate in 2010. Schilling is in a lot of trouble, if he doesn’t realize that it is his lose. Someone who votes against Amtrak is going to lose a lot of votes in the QC.

    It would be nice to see a nonpartisan pollster take a look at the race.


  11. - Fed up - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 1:47 pm:

    Wordslinger,
    Ask bean, Halvorsen,seals,hare and foster about how those Obama voters pulled the ballot they all lost


  12. - QcPundit - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 1:49 pm:

    Oh Hai Slinger!

    Sounds like Durbin’s babysitter is the one in trouble…Obama is down 9 points since 2008. What happened to all those independents?

    I heard the former health care marketer, who made over $300,000 in 2010, had to sell her Cadillac XRT (MSRP $84,000-$104,000) in order to fit into the district more. Makes sense, being that the average household income in around $37,000 a year.

    Poor Cheri.

    Oh well. Maybe she can buy a new one after she loses. I hear the 2013 models are pretty sweet.


  13. - wordslinger - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 1:55 pm:

    –Sounds like Durbin’s babysitter is the one in trouble..–

    Dude, you’re doing a swell job for Schilling with that sexist stuff. Keep it up, please.


  14. - Liandro - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:10 pm:

    Cheri got a lot of local media (not so positive) for refusing to debate her Democratic opponents in the primary, for skipping forums and town halls, and for generally avoiding the public. With Durbin and the establishment support, she flew through the primary with that strategy, but it also cost her serious name ID and media cred. If she had been working harder, in district, more people would know her, and more people would respect her.

    Schilling, on the other hand, has been working very, very hard. I saw him multiple times on the trail, despite living a bit outside his district. I never saw Cheri. Schilling connects directly with voters, and willingly engages with even those who strongly disagree with him. People notice that.

    Cheri is going to get money, of course, and big name support. In such a strong D district it may be enough to knock off Schilling, but she sure won’t have earned it. And I won’t be surprised at all if Schilling wins. He knows his stuff, he knows his district, and he knows how to work very hard.


  15. - Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:13 pm:

    Bottom line is that it’s early in this race and those Schilling numbers are at their high water mark. Bustos is undefined and won’t be until later in the race since normal people don’t pay attention to congressional races this far out.

    It’s not a slam dunk for either but it’s way way too early to count Bustos out.


  16. - NW Illinois - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:13 pm:

    Anyone in their right mind would never underestimate the work ethic of the Schilling family and their candidate and campaign. He’s an earned media giant up here as well.

    But don’t count the Bustos candidacy out just yet.
    She is a hard-working candidate who is raising tons of dough-re-me$. President Obama’s coattails will her candidacy.


  17. - QcPundit - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:21 pm:

    Wordslinger must not realize that Cheri really did babysit for Durbin…

    She also ate breakfast every morning with Sen. Paul Simon.

    Bustos was born with the equivalent of a political silver spoon in her mouth.

    Too bad she’s made so many enemies in the Quad Cities. Seems to me that the more people see of her, the less they like. 16% favorable, 12% unfavorable? YIKES!!

    Cheri Bustos is a country club Democrat and will never connect with the people. Good luck trying Cheryl.


  18. - wordslinger - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:28 pm:

    QC, so your description of a successful professional woman who’s a mother and grandmother as a “babysitter” is meant to be informative and not belittling?

    Like I said, you’re doing a swell job for Schilling.


  19. - NW Illinois - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:31 pm:

    Listen, everyone knows that Cong. Schilling rode in on the national wave of 2010. Is he for real? 2012 will tell. He’s a hard worker.

    Cheri Bustos is a competitive candidate. With President Obama creating a Democratic tide at the top, look for this race to go down to the wire.


  20. - QcPundit - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 2:58 pm:

    The fact of the matter is that had Cheri not babysat for Dick Durbin and had her father not been as connected as he is, Dave Koehler would be the nominee right now, not her.

    Can you really argue against that?

    What accomplishments does she have besides being an alderwoman? Have you see East Moline? As a former resident, I can say with authority that it’s a sad sight.

    Taxes are going up there, the city just posted a $1 million budget shortfall, $550,000 in misplaced TIF, a $40,000 welcome sign (that looks pretty good actually) and the highest unemployment rate in the Quad Cities.

    Sorry, I should have used those facts to belittle her.


  21. - Sentinel - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 3:51 pm:

    The key insight here is that Schilling is hardly the lost cause that some have tried to portray. He is smart and hard working and connects with people. The technically true but misleading narrative that democrats drew in inner city Peoria and Rockford to finish Schilling off was never the whole story.

    The whole story is that inner-city Springfield was taken OUT of the 17th along with Decatur and a southern tier of partial counties that were all democrat when they were put in the 17th in 2001. Plus 4 Republican counties: Carroll, Henry, Stephenson and Jo Daviess were added in.

    Mark Kirk, Bill Brady, Topinka and Rutherford all won the newly configured 17th District in the last election. Ok different turnout in presidential elections but still significant.

    Schilling also won by 10 points in the last election–it wasn’t close.

    Blown to bits is the false notion that Schilling cannot win in such a district. Watch Bustos get nasty real fast. But it won’t matter, Schilling resonates particularly well with voters in the 17th.


  22. - NW Illinois - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 5:39 pm:

    Don’t read too much into an early, name ID poll, folks.


  23. - Latte Liberal - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 6:09 pm:

    I’d say QcPundits comments verge near the ‘rabid’ category that might require at least some tacit moderation…

    But that said, addressing one of your last comments, I think it’s unfair to insinuate Bustos is the nominee instead of Koehler because of family connections.

    One key reason she rose to the top was her prolific fundraising capability, and whether you like it or not - the ability to raise money makes you a preferred pick by the DCCC (or RCCC for that matter).


  24. - Liandro - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 6:36 pm:

    @Word and others,

    When a sitting U.S. Senator is making calls to get other primary opponents out of the race, and the establishment blatantly puts its thumb on the scales, you sort of lose the right to wax self-righteous about someone’s “professional” credentials winning them a race. Her relationship with Durbin and others was the key “credential” pushing her win, and everyone who paid any attention at all to the primaries in this area (from both parties) knows it.

    While I wouldn’t describe her as a “babysitter”, my sentiments are pretty much the same–it’s clout and relationships that defined that primary race. I met her opponents, but she didn’t even bother showing up to those forums. As such, my knowledge of her mostly consists of Durbin-related news articles.

    That doesn’t mean she isn’t qualified…it just means we have no idea whether she is, since up til now she’s ran primarily on the reputation of other people, not issues or resume. That route to power might prove to be fatal in the general election against this particular Congressman–he has clearly earned his way to where he is. She has yet to prove she has.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 10:19 pm:

    1. Schilling’s favorables are at 42%.

    2. Obama leads by ten points.

    3. Are you sure this isn’t a Bustos poll?


  26. - Jon Zahm - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 10:44 pm:

    Schilling will win this race. He has very strong local candidates all around him that will help get out the vote. Senator Sullivan or the Rock Island former Mayor would have made this a race. But the liberal Bustos does not fit the working class Dem base well at all. Schilling is a former union worker and runs a family pizza restaurant. He is authentic and down to earth. She’s a big dollar marketing exec from the other side of the state line.


  27. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, May 30, 12 @ 11:17 pm:

    No offense, Jon, but weren’t you predicting a Santorum victory in Illinois just a few months ago?


  28. - RoxyM - Thursday, May 31, 12 @ 12:40 am:

    The fact that Schilling is 16 ahead even though Obama leads by 10 is proof that voters think Schilling has done a pretty good job. Underestimating him is lethal. But go ahead, do it again. Please.


  29. - Louis Howe - Thursday, May 31, 12 @ 3:49 am:

    Actually, the most interesting statistic is Obama’s 51% in a home state 60% democratic district. Looks like Obama is setup to seriously underperform the D numbers downstate and may end up losing this district. Shilling is very competitive at over 50% which means Bustos needs to step up the pace and run a very aggressive and creative campaign.


  30. - Paul - Thursday, May 31, 12 @ 4:53 pm:

    Schilling paid for that poll. Public Opinion Strategies describes itself as a Republican pollster. I bet Schilling knew what he was buying.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* State ordered to pay providers for pregnant women, infants and children
* Club for Growth runs McCarter ad
* Because... Madigan!
* NFIB member poll: 88 percent want Rauner to keep pushing Turnaround Agenda
* AFSCME advances bill that Rauner admin says "we cannot afford"
* Kim Foxx launches first TV ad "Amen"
* 2nd Annual "Cocktails with Capitol Fax"
* Has a "new" counter-point to the Tribune emerged?
* Credit Unions Assist At Risk Youth
* Question of the day
* Why I fight
* Parsons scores rare and highly unusual Obama interview
* Dunkin's defense
* Civic Federation wants spending limits and tax hikes: "There are no easy stop-gap fixes"
* *** LIVE SESSION COVERAGE ***
* "Mike Madigan's favorite state Senator"
* #Winning!
* In the spirit of the times...
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories makes it way to Android
* Facer 2.0 app now freemium, brings better smartwatch customization
* Congress votes against state-imposed Internet access taxes
* Lenovo VIBE P1 Turbo finally up for pre-order in Indonesia
* HTC One M10’s 12MP UltraPixel camera may be one we’ve seen before
* Chrome for Android now detects Physical Web content
* Apple's TestFlight App Gains Support for iOS 9.3 and watchOS 2.2

* White Sox reportedly considering Desmond
* Lefty-heavy rotation not a concern
* Melky: White Sox must play like family to contend
* White Sox remodel in big way this offseason
* White Sox ink Ishikawa to Minor League deal
* White Sox sign righty Latos to 1-year deal
* White Sox sign Mat Latos for one year, $3 million

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Democratic Lawmakers Try Again to Have An Arbit.....
* Bill to limit Bruce Rauner's power in union neg.....
* Rauner: 'We're Winning, but It's Taking Longer .....
* Arlington Heights man appointed to state constr.....
* Attack Ad Skewers Rep. Dunkin Over Ties to Raun.....
* State: Brawl over bargaining bill resumes - The.....
* Brawl over bargaining bill resumes - Illinois N.....
* Contentious Labor Bill Reemerges In Illinois Le.....
* House Democrats revive union arbitration bill -.....


* Illinois News Digest
* Children sue a former state legislature over pornography videos
* Jury sides with Illinois man in excessive force lawsuit
* Lawmakers urge federal agency to build campus in Illinois
* Aunt of teen accused in slaying charged with supplying gun
* Illinois News Digest
* Chicago man wins $1M lawsuit alleging police rigged lineup
* Illinois coal mine owner seeks expansion as fire lingers
* EXCHANGE: iPads enhance learning at Marion schools
* Chicago transit overhaul gets $156M in new federal funds

* $45M and counting for $315M rail consolidation project
* Lawmakers making second attempt to send AFSCME talks to arbitrator
* President Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Bill aims to create foundation to raise private money for state fairgrounds
* Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Presidential visit notebook: Obama doesn't like horseshoes?
* District 186 misses out on construction bond program
* Vehicle emissions test notices suspended amid budget impasse
* Rauner: Bureaucracy is holding Illinois back
* Peoria's Par-A-Dice casino laying off 40, cites impact of video gaming

* Rush hospital president to retire
* What's next for O'Hare's gate construction plan?
* O’Hare finally catching up with rivals in jumbo jet space race
* O'Hare finally catching up with rivals in jumbo-jet space race
* Heidrick & Struggles adds consulting firm for $9.2 million


* Gary Bettman discusses the possibility of the NHL All-Star game in Chicago
* ‘Bad Hurt': A gritty look at the walking wounded
* Emanuel vows to host 2017 NHL draft without burdening taxpayers
* Lt. Denis Walsh, a key Koschman cop, quits in face of firing
* Two years late at twice the cost, Chicago opens new domestic violence shelter
* A ‘Cabaret’ that tries too hard to be different
* ‘Where to Invade Next': The less Michael Moore, the better
* Ex-Rep. Keith Farnham sued by two child porn victims
* ‘Zoolander 2′: Ben Stiller’s model just as unfunny in star-powered sequel
* Emanuel moves to close legal loophole exploited by pedicabs


* Girl, 16, among 3 wounded in West Side shootings
* Contract firefighter from Downers Grove charged with child porn possession
* Walgreens employee accused of stealing hundreds of prescription pain pills
* Man shot in Lakeview fight dies, days after shooter released without charges
* Party shooting defendant said he feared for his life
* Five injured in Chain O'Lakes snowmobile crash
* Gary woman and ex-boyfriend die in shootout with each other
* Illinois moves ahead with new testing plan, replacing ACT with SAT
* Weekend closures, detours slated as part of O'Hare Western Access Project
* Second season of reality show about Willis family to premiere in March


* $45M and counting for $315M rail consolidation project
* Lawmakers making second attempt to send AFSCME talks to arbitrator
* President Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Our View: Illinois officials should heed Obama's call for civility, compromise
* Bill aims to create foundation to raise private money for state fairgrounds
* Bernard Schoenburg: State GOP past $250,000 in support for Rep. Avery Bourne
* Eugene Robinson: Rubio's revealing loop
* Derrik Gay: Reducing fossil fuel dependence aids U.S. troops
* George F. Will: Break the teeth-whitening monopoly
* Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters


* Sports Talk 2-11-16
* Coming to a TV near you: Congressional attack ads
* Judge: Former village official must pay insurance firm $100,000
* PODCAST: Rabbi Dovid Tiechtel, Chabad Center for Jewish Life
* Information sought on cause of trash can fire in UI dorm
* 02-11-16 News-Gazette Prep Sports Podcast @NGPreps
* Two new websites focus on helping students build careers and businesses find employees
* Chicago Auto Show 2016
* Senators: Let female WWII pilots into Arlington Cemetery
* 02-11-16 Dr. Jan Slater Dean of the @collegeofmedia @illinois_alma


* State suing Barrington Mobil station that leaked gas
* Barrington man pleads not guilty in wife's death
* Joe Caputo & Sons closing Elk Grove store Sunday
* Where you can vote right now in Illinois
* Wheeling home invasion suspect caught in Mexico

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Duckworth and Durbin Urge EPA to Review Re......
* Lawmakers urge federal agency to build cam......
* IL senator helps introduce bill to combat ......

* Ward Room's Race to Watch: Illinois Senate......
* Senate recommends bill for improved NIH re......
* Sen. Kirk Introduces Army Arsenal Revitali......
* Lawmakers urge federal agency to build cam......

* ACLU: Illinois Wants Bipartisan Criminal Justice Reforms Now
* Republicans Fiorina, Christie Suspend Presidential Campaigns
* Black vote
* Illinois Reaches $22.5 Million Settlement With Morgan Stanley Over Risky Mortgage Investments
* Ellen Gradman’s poster for our show.
* Ald. Arena Speaks At Education Forum Hosted By Chicago Jobs With Justice
* Ald. Arena Talks Next Steps On TIF Funding Proposal For CPS
* Conservationists Celebrate Success Of Eagles In Illinois
* Only one more taping date left for judicial candidates looking to appear on NTNM
* Cook County Clerk Orr Encourages Youth Voter Registration Before Tuesday's Deadline


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller