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*** UPDATED x1 - Davis makes “Young Guns” *** Poll has Davis leading Gill, but there’s a catch

Friday, Jun 8, 2012

* 13th Congressional Democratic nominee David Gill released a poll last month showing he was leading the Republicans who wanted to replace incumbent Congressman Tim Johnson on the ballot. His lead over the eventual choice, Rodney Davis, was 10 points, 41-31.

We Ask America is out with a new poll, however, which has a big Davis lead over the Democratic candidate

* However, there is a caveat. From the pollster

Since our sample was evenly divided between the two parties and Independents, Gill is probably a point or so closer than this nine-point spread.

I’m not sure why the heck they would do that, but whatever. More

Gill is well-known among a large portion of the Democratic base of IL-13 (especially in the Champaign-Urbana area) due to the fact that he won the Silver Medal in three out of the last three elections. Plus, Gill barely won the March Democratic primary in a real squeaker where he was not the Party’s Chosen One. His openly bitter post-primary attitude has left a lot of area Dems unimpressed. Those wounds may heal, but in the meantime, Davis has received a lot of earned media in the last month. Gill hasn’t had a real chance to “define” Davis yet, so this one is like trying to decide the winner of a horse race a few seconds after the gate opens.

Davis is out to an early lead, but expect Gill to go the whip sooner than later.

*** UPDATE *** Davis was just put into the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. From a press release…

Rodney Davis, Republican candidate for the 13th Congressional District, has been named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” program. The program, founded by Reps. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), and Paul Ryan (R-WI) in the 2007-2008 election cycle, is the primary method for recruiting strong candidates for open-seat races like the 13th District.

“Rodney Davis has met a series of rigorous goals that will put him in a position to win on Election Day,” said NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX). “The momentum behind his campaign is proof-positive that Americans are fed up with Nancy Pelosi policies that spend too much, tax too much, and borrow too much at the expense of hard-working Illinois families. Rodney Davis is leading the pack as Republicans continue to send a loud and clear message that we will hold Democrats accountable for their unpopular partisan agenda.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 9:28 am:

    YDD …

    Read the poll, leave the cannoli?

    Way, way, WAY to early …

    Also, who says their poll is “flawed” by a point or two by the manner by which it was conducted?

    Just asking …

  2. - Downstate - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 9:34 am:

    Wow! Davis is just named as the Republican candidate and he’s already leading in the polls? I can’t see Dems spending much money on this race after seeing this.

    This is as much about the anti-Obama, anti-union vote in Central Illinois than it is about the particular candidate. The only thing that Davis and Gill agree on is that Obamacare should be scrapped. The problem is that Gill wants to scrap it for a single payer system. Yup, that will play well in Central Illinois.

    Gill had much better name recognition, having run two times already, but couldn’t beat Davis in this early poll?

    Davis by 15 when the votes are counted.

  3. - so.... - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 9:40 am:

    Even if the sample is slightly off, this can’t be anything but encouraging for Republicans. With less than a month as the Republican nominee, Davis has a healthy lead over a four-time candidate in what is ostensibly a Democrat leaning district.

    P.S. for those those Dems consoling themselves that the sampling is probably off, look at the independents number, Davis is leading Gill by 9 points. Not good for Gill.

  4. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 9:58 am:

    Wow is that the best the GOPies can do?
    Rapid Rodney better get going once the Griffin campaign cash laundering scandal hits full bloom and money flows away from the district to protect Daddy’s Little Deduction sure thing win this will be tough one.
    Too bad Billboards got stomped on the bid to fix remap.

  5. - J - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 10:16 am:

    I’ve always felt like something was a little off at We Ask America. This confirms it.

  6. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    Is Plummer a “young gun” too? Just wondering.

  7. - Ahoy! - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 11:11 am:

    Why does every republican press release have to mention Nancy Pelosi? Is there some kind of wierd fetish there that we don’t know about?

  8. - Team Sleep - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 11:48 am:

    Friday - yes, Plummer is a Young Gun. He got that designation almost immediately after his primary win.

  9. - wordslinger - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 2:05 pm:

    I find the self-named Young Guns hilarious. Sounds like something Spanky and Alfalfa would come up with for a clubhouse in the backyard.

  10. - benevolent hegemon - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 2:31 pm:

    Gee Ahoy, I guess you don’t know that Pelosi is catnip to conservatives just like the Tea Party, Rutherford, Joe Walsh, Koch, Fox News, etc. are catnip here at CapFax.

    Red meat for the faithful.

    That is all.

  11. - Anon - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 2:55 pm:

    I know Rodney. No one will out work him.

  12. - Endangered Moderate Species - Friday, Jun 8, 12 @ 4:06 pm:

    David Gill= Nice Guy, Good Doctor, challenged pol

    The Young Guns better not get to cocky. Their tea party friends have proven they should be more aptly named “The Gang that can’t Shoot Straight”.

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