SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Deja vu all over again

Friday, Nov 30, 2012

* The reporting on yesterday’s PPP poll has been somewhat breathless

Reports are coming out that Pat Quinn is the least popular governor in the country.

according to a survey that came out Thursday, only one in four Illinois voters approves of Quinn’s job performance.

The liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling firm found that 64 percent of voters disapprove of the work Quinn is doing, making him “the most unpopular governor [it] has polled on anywhere in the country this year.”

The firm reports that, if the general election were held today, Quinn would lose to state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R) by a margin of 44 to 37 percent, and to state Treasurer Dan Rutherford (R) by 43 to 39 percent.

* More

“Quinn’s unpopularity puts the Republicans in a position where they could win despite the fact that none of them are very well-known,” said Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling.

An aide to Quinn defended his tenure and acknowledged that his efforts to deal with difficult subjects, such as Medicaid reform, facility closures and tax increases, have not been popular — but are in the best interests of state government.

* OK, here’s Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker for the 2010 general. As you can see, the average had him losing to Bill Brady by almost five points

In October, the Tribune had Quinn trailing by four points and Rasmussen and PPP had him down by five.

On October 12th, 2010 - just a few weeks before the election - Quinn’s job approval was measured at 26 percent by the Tribune’s pollster. That’s just a point higher than PPP’s latest poll.

In other words, we’ve seen this movie before.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


41 Comments
  1. - shore - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:38 am:

    There’s a likability and trust people have in quinn which enables him to weather storms and I don’t think he’s as vulnerable as that poll indicates.

    To his credit, Rutherford, unlike Dillard, Brady and Schock, has worked extremely hard over the last several years to build ties around the state in and out of the party and that showed up in that poll. I don’t care for him, but that work does pay off and he earned that support he got.


  2. - OneMan - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:40 am:

    Here is a bit of a dumb question, does the more Democratic map ‘hurt’ Pat since there will be fewer seats where Dems have to really work or does that free up resources for Pat?


  3. - Tom - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:41 am:

    What many people forget is Quinn changed his media consultant mid stream which saved his butt. He hired Joe Slade White.


  4. - Generation X - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:45 am:

    That was before his war on labor began. He is not likely to have the same level of support that he did in 2010 from a key part of his base


  5. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    It’s amazing … What. A. Ground. Game. Can do.

    How did Brady lose???

    Then name of the game is VOTES, and getting VOTERS to the polls.

    “But we are up 5, what is the size the drapes need to be?”

    Ground Game … worth its weight to invest in one.


  6. - ArchPundit - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:52 am:

    We just can’t quit him. Nate Silver got the 2010 race ‘wrong’ as well though by giving us probabilities of the outcome he also gives us the likelihood not just the binary choice of win-lose.

    The AFSCME fight is going to be a problem if there is a primary.

    A big part of the question is what will SEIU do? Do they stick with Quinn who has been a good ally? This may be different from not endorsing him with the possibility SEIU endorses him and then doesn’t do much. SEIU has been a critical player in the primaries and if they stick with Quinn and go all in, he becomes far more formidable than the 25% approval suggests.


  7. - Mowatcher - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:03 am:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Blago have a super-low approval rating in 2006 and still went on to beat Topinka by a sizable margin?


  8. - western illinois - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:03 am:

    Someone called Rich Miller compared Brady and Kirk downstate and attibuted teh difference to state workers….
    He wont have the Union GOTV with him Probably against him…(ex maybe SEIU)


  9. - Responsa - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:04 am:

    Here’s why the PPP poll is important. Do you remember how close Quinn came to losing the Dem primary last time? Well, based on their observtion of him in action, (and supported by this poll) I don’t think Dems across the board will be dumb enough to “let” Pat make it to the general election this time. Whoever the R candidate for governor is in 2014 he/she will be facing a different, and probably much stronger opponent than Pat Quinn.


  10. - Madison - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:04 am:

    I actually have to admit that PQ has an ability to pull things out late in the game. While he is not likely to get as inept a team as Brady -Plummer again, he did pull off what I considered an upset victory in the primary as well.

    As X mentioned above, this is a man at war with his base…a gambit designed to shed democratic votes, and add independents and Republican crossovers. For a guy that had the democratic party base in cook county in the palm of his hand? Odd gamble, since my recollection was his independent strength was maybe not saturated, but good.

    Since team Madigan raised taxes and added seats, perhaps it’s time for Quinn to declare a truce with his base and focus on the revenue side. There is really no downside since the GOP is emasculated and now the threat is from the Primary.
    Whomever he gets if successful in the Primary, odds are they drank the kool-aid.


  11. - I wonder... - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:06 am:

    What does Shelia Simon do? Since Gov and Lt. Gov candidates have to run together in the primaries now (I believe this is the case or do they pick a running mate after the primary?), does she jump ship? Maybe run on her own? Or does she stay put? Any insight Rich?


  12. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:07 am:

    ===attibuted teh difference to state workers===

    Actually, it was union members in general because of Brady’s staunch right to work stance.


  13. - Robert the Bruce - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:09 am:

    ==A big part of the question is what will SEIU do?==
    Good question. SEIU sure gave a lot to Quinn in the last election - http://bit.ly/UwrqeS - over $2,000,000 by my count.
    I’d think a republican governor would be worse for SEIU. On the other hand, in the long run, one way to exert more influence would be to sit an election out to send a message to Dems who have strayed from their support of unions.


  14. - dupage dan - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:11 am:

    So, yesterday it was all “Quinn is done”. Now it’s all “Quinn is safe”. And we are 2 1/2 years out from the next election. Sheesh.

    I agree with the second. I mean, we re-elected Blagojevich, didn’t we?


  15. - shore - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:11 am:

    I wonder, you make a good point on sheila simon, I don’t know if she’s been teaching while lt governor but she’s been pretty invisible. I would have thought she’d be used more and more active.


  16. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:13 am:

    Responsa has it right. Quinn won’t survive the primary.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:13 am:

    The ILGOP needs Pat Quinn to survive a Primary, then have Labor bail on Quinn in the General, and try to build a skeleton Field Operation to get the Mansion back, along with some IL House and IL Senate seats, ate least in play.

    I fear, the next 10 months, the ILDems will decide that Quinn isn’t the answer, have an Open Primary, with many circulating. The only fear for the ILDems is that Quinn gets 26% in a 4-way Primary, and that might get him over the Finish Line.

    This Guv. race in the General, less Pat Quinn, will be won in the Precincts. Unless the GOP Nominee has a double-digit lead going into the Monday before, I can’t see the GOP Nominee beating the ILDem Nominee on Election Day without a double-digit lead, at least.


  18. - Responsa - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:14 am:

    Surely I’m not the only one here who has been receiving snarky emails from “friends” all over the country congratulating me on living in Illinois- the state with the lowest rated governor in all the states that were polled this year. The one from a buddy in California was especially galling.


  19. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:21 am:

    ===Quinn won’t survive the primary. ===

    He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be???


  20. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:22 am:

    In other words, you can’t beat somebody with nobody.

    Also, never underestimate the power of a governor to defend himself in a primary.


  21. - Hyperbolic Chamber - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:23 am:

    == The AFSCME fight is going to be a problem if there is a primary. ==

    AFSCME stayed out of the Hynes/Quinn primary entirely, so, yes, it will be a problem. But it’s not just AFSCME. The IFT & IEA were late to the Hynes party in 2010; their $/support came in the final 2 weeks of the race. Early money is critical. The prospect of the 3 of them “all in” at an early date is a huge problem for PQ.

    What SEIU does is a question. My guess is they stand by PQ, but to what degree?


  22. - Hyperbolic Chamber - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:26 am:

    This is also the first guber. primary with contribution limits. Game changer probably that benefits PQ, but this is when we will start seeing IEs explode in IL.


  23. - 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:38 am:

    ===you can’t beat somebody with nobody===

    Exactly. These numbers will change based on Quinn’s opponent in the primary. I think Quinn is more vulnerable to a challenge from a woman and/or an African-American candidate than he is from another white guy. And given the issues as we can expect them to be, I don’t think another white guy can run to the left of Quinn on pensions, taxes, guns, gay marriage, etc. Most likely, another white male’s path is to the right of Quinn, which is tough to do in a Dem primary. And if there are multiple opponents, then that would increase Quinn’s chances to win the nomination.

    Preckwinkle insists she isn’t running. Maybe she’ll change her mind, because if Quinn is going to lose a Dem primary, I think she has the best chance of beating him.

    But for now, Rich is spot-on as usual, we shouldn’t read too much into this poll.


  24. - Yahoooz - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:48 am:

    Illinois is in a fiscal state of disturbance. Regardless if one likes Quinn or not, whomever would have won would be faced with the same impossible to please everyone situations.
    For what its worth, if the election were held today my quess is Quinn would win again. I just cant see many of Quinn’s distractors voting for the Brady Plummer ticket and can only imagine what the unions would be saying about them had they been elected instead of Quinn


  25. - siu alum - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:49 am:

    If Lisa Madigan doesnt run then would Hynes throw his hat in? What does he have to lose?


  26. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:50 am:

    Man, 2014 is going to be one fun electoral season.


  27. - Generation X - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    With AFL-CIO and teachers unions seemingly casting their lots with Afscme a reasonable primary opponent or Moderate Republic opponent would spell big trouble for PQ


  28. - CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:08 am:

    How about PQ-Forby?
    That is both the joke and the punchline


  29. - RMD - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:12 am:

    Refreshing to have a politician be unpopular. It means they maybe standing on principle and trying to do the right thing regardless of consequent.


  30. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:29 am:

    ===Quinn won’t survive the primary. ===

    ===He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be??? ===

    RNUG - Throw your hat into the ring.


  31. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:35 am:

    ===Quinn won’t survive the primary. ===

    ===He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be??? ===

    Wordslinger? You’re not that busy right?


  32. - Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:44 am:

    ===Wordslinger? You’re not that busy right? ===

    Skeletons.

    lol

    Just sayin…


  33. - cassandra - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:47 am:

    I don’t think the Republicans will have repaired their “brand” by 2014-that project will take decades, –so the Democratic primary, again, will be where our next governor is chosen. The challenge for a party with a long-term supermajority is to keep from dissolving into factions and fighting among themselves. A nasty primary fight would likely cause a lot of rifts for a Republican (probably not yet born, the way things are going) to exploit some day.


  34. - wordslinger - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:07 pm:

    Rich, skeletons? Some of them aren’t even dead yet.


  35. - Loop Lady - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:17 pm:

    Last I heard, Hynes is very happy in the private sector…wouldn’t you be too looking at the morass that is IL gov’t?


  36. - PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:38 pm:

    It’s always darkest before the Dawn Clark Netsch maybe?


  37. - dave - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:48 pm:

    **He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be???**

    I’m calling it right now. Alexi runs for Governor against Quinn (though, if Durbin doesn’t run again, he’s an option there as well).

    And Hynes doesn’t run for office again.


  38. - Amuzing Myself - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 1:08 pm:

    OW: ground game doesn’t matter if you don’t establish your message in the suburbs. Brady could have had a thousand troops on the ground in each collar county and it wouldn’t have mattered. He was seen as too extreme, and never did the tv work to soften his image. Ground game didnt help either caucus or the GOP congressional candidates this year either.


  39. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 1:17 pm:

    - Amuzing Myself -,

    Since there WAS NO ground game to offer as proof, we will never know.

    “Call me, Maybe?”

    Further,

    I agree that hiding from Chicago and Cook county by the Brady Staff’s decision, all the while, literally, hiding Jason Plummer from everyone except squirrels and rabbits, you are on-point there. The Campaign decision to forgo Cook and Chicago was a Death-Nail.

    Lastly,

    Extreme, not extreme, the point should have been, “The governor’s race will decide the political destiny of the ILGOP. Do you trust Quinn with the GOP’s future map, or are you going to trust Pat Brady. The 80% Rule say, ‘Vote Brady’. Well, we got curtain-measuring, and no message to carry in Cook and the Collars to rally.

    Add no ground game … to no message …to “no candidate” to campaign in Cook … you get a losing recipe.

    Lots of ingredients, cooked perfectly for Irrelevency.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 1:22 pm:

    ===Ground game didnt help either caucus or the GOP congressional candidates this year either.===

    You show me a REAL ground game by the SGOP or the HGOP, especially on Election Day, then we can debate that, but since there was not a ground game, I have nothing more to say on that!

    To the Congressionals, If all who lost, if they can say they had run EVERY plus voter they had, made sure their Election Day was flawless, then you got me. However, I don’t think you can honestly say the congressionals ran ground games that ensured all their plus voters voted, let alone IF they had plus voters they identified.


  41. - Robo - Monday, Dec 3, 12 @ 9:44 am:

    Agree with all the comments about a ground game, but I think polling has been off for a number of cycles now. I think there are 3 problems pollsters have to deal with 1) lying (that’s an old one), 2) cell phones (landlines are declining fast), and 3) cheap polling (you get what you pay for).


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Tuesday
* Oh, for crying out loud
* Not as simple as it may look
* *** UPDATED x1 *** State complies with court order on DD payments
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Question of the day
* Nuding praises Arduin
* YOU Matter to Illinois Credit Unions
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Point, counter-point
* Not there yet
* Will remap reform proposal hurt Democrats?
* Where are they now?
* Putting two and two together
* No excuse for this loophole
* From a "trap" to a "magnet"
* FOP wants override of AFSCME bill veto
* Report: 34,000 losing independent living services
* No movement yet
* Today's number: $58.1 million
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sony to reportedly release Xperia Z5, two other variants on September 2
        * Samsung will launch the Galaxy J1 Ace in India next month for Rs. 6,400
        * HTC ‘Aero’ most likely labeled One A9, Full HD screen still in the cards
        * Google Play Services updated with support for Android Pay
        * Razer Nabu smartband re-introduced, pre-orders starts September 15
        * Clearest renders yet show off marginal Moto 360 2015 design tweaks
        * Smaller Motorola smartwatch is outed as the Moto 360 Sport, will arrive in November according to leak

        * Guessing the White Sox' September call-ups
        * White Sox Minor League Update: Aug. 30-Sept. 5
        * White Sox steal finale win from Mariners
        * Ventura keeps disappointment in perspective
        * White Sox battle back, capitalize on error
        * Rotation adjustment made for road trip
        * Sale tries to figure out playoff-chasing Twins

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2015
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Medical marijuana cultivation center takes shape near Anna
        * Southern Illinois city to buy vacant outlet mall
        * Autopsy set in weekend Swansea stabbing that left woman dead
        * EXCHANGE: First house in Plainfield example of preservation
        * Authorities: 2 Texans killed in Illinois plane crash
        * Report: Charities received little of millions company raised
        * Woman dead, child severely injured in Swansea stabbing
        * Charges announced in Robbins crash that killed parents
        * Scientists help when suburban corpse flower doesn't bloom
        * Illinois investigates parole board members' bankruptcies

        * Exelon mulls closure of unprofitable Quad Cities nuclear plant
        * Illinois investigates parole board members' bankruptcies
        * Exelon mulls closure of unprofitable Quad Cities nuke plant
        * Illinois investigates state parole board members' bankruptcies
        * Statehouse Insider: Illinois State Fair: Fair or flop?
        * Illinois will be first state to lock painkiller pill bottles
        * Donna Arduin out as Gov. Rauner's state budget adviser
        * Cash-strapped Illinois: Can't do 'impossible' on social service payments
        * Arduin out as state budget adviser
        * Rauner signs bill allowing township governments to dissolve

        * Waiting for Godot, and Spirit Airlines
        * No more porn in Hyatt Hotels?
        * Market for taxi medallion loans grinding to a halt
        * What Americans really think about McDonald's
        * New hospital won't go it alone


          * Fire guts Lincoln Square Lanes
          * Motorcyclist dead in Interstate 290 crash
          * 9 wounded in city shootings
          * The color of his shirt cost college student Alan Oliva his life
          * Two charged in crash that killed Robbins couple
          * Speakers: Act, don't just remember Emmett Till
          * 'Flames had to be just ferocious': 2 die in suspicious Southwest Side fire
          * Mayor: Equip all Milwaukee beat police with body cameras
          * Police release sketch of suspected Willowbrook attacker


          * The Rev. David Hoefler: Springfield diocese not targeting non-Catholics
          * Exelon mulls closure of unprofitable Quad Cities nuclear plant
          * Illinois investigates parole board members' bankruptcies
          * Our Opinion: Drop in Illinois State Fair attendance not such a mystery
          * Bernard Schoenburg: 'Great conversation' has Rep. Rodney Davis hopeful about VA head
          * Statehouse Insider: Illinois State Fair: Fair or flop?
          * Statehouse Insider: Illinois State Fair: Fair or flop?
          * Write to us: Tell us your volunteer story
          * Illinois will be first state to lock painkiller pill bottles
          * Donna Arduin out as Gov. Rauner's state budget adviser


          * Keep farmland and reuse urban land
          * One market factor you can control: Fees
          * Dey's cliches mask his lack of thought
          * The Future Five, Aug. 31, 2015
          * Cruel reasons used to justify abortion
          * Parking problems persist for Fluid Event Center
          * Area history, Aug. 31, 2015
          * Extended deadline in Danville boosts applicant numbers
          * This day in history, Aug. 31, 2015
          * Message sign installations to affect interstate traffic


          * Dense fog advisory in place until 9 a.m.
          * Topgolf coming to Naperville
          * Naked, body-painted bicyclists ride through Philadelphia
          * Rozner: Kane paints Blackhawks into corner
          * Dawn Patrol: Arrieta no-hits Dodgers; Lindenhurst teen remembered

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Illinois' Durbin gets a shot at political ......

          * Shangri-La set to tee off at NBO Golf Clas......

          * edTPA. The Gates and NCTQ plan, a long time in the works.
          * On the 14th day, religious leaders make their appeal and Claypool does what we predicted he would do.
          * Neither TFA nor edTPA. Becoming a teacher.
          * Ives: Open Letter to College of DuPage Trustees
          * McConchie Featured Speaker at Republican Assembly of Lake County Meeting
          * The Moral Case For Freedom at AFP's Defending The Dream Summit
          * Thousands Of Sociologists Just Had A Convention In Chicago
          * Sox Gonna Sox
          * Led Cubs
          * The "40" Film showing Thursday night in Glen Ellyn


          * Governor Announces Appointments
          * State to Issue $16 million in Credits to Reverse Penalties for Monthly Electronic Wage Reporting - Rules provide relief for nearly 13,000 employers over the next six months
          * GOMB Director Issues Statement
          * Governor Takes Bill Action
          * Governor Rauner Requests SBA Assistance for Grundy, Iroquois Counties - Declaration would help people and businesses affected by summer storms with low-interest, long-term loans to help with recovery




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller